Odds to Win the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship
The Odds (per Bet365)
Ohio State +425
Georgia +600
Texas +600
Oregon +650
Penn State +1000
Alabama +1400
Notre Dame +1600
Tennessee +1800
Clemson +2000
Ole Miss +2000
LSU +2200
...
Betting Strategy
The best long-term strategy for futures betting is to hunt for value.
This means betting prices instead of teams.
Over time, a certain percentage of your smart, well-reasoned wagers will hit. If you bet according to prices, then you will profit more because your successes will net a greater payout.
Open Field
This being said, there isn't much to like about the more heavily favored teams. The odds seem to be heavily influenced by the most recent results and do not account sufficiently for the mostly personnel-based changes that each team will undergo.
Ohio State is the favorite, but it loses a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball.
It loses its extremely efficient quarterback and key pieces like second-leading wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and defensive standout Jack Sawyer.
The entire starting defensive line departs, in fact. The running back room, offensive line, secondary, and linebacker group will also get hit hard with significant losses.
A lot of these favored teams lose their quarterback and suffer a worse outlook at this key position: such teams also include Oregon, which loses its Heisman finalist, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ole Miss.
Penn State retains its quarterback but is impossible to like given head coach James Franklin's reputation for losing big games, as evident in his awful record against top-five and top-ten opponents.
Texas gets a new quarterback who has accumulated some playing time, but it will miss its top two and six of its top nine wide receivers. It also loses six defensive starters, including its star cornerback, 2024 Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron, who is impossible to replace.
The Big Sleeper
For those who like to take a crack at a long-shot, you might find it worthwhile to invest in Illinois. The Illini are listed at +17500 to win the national title.
They are a program that is on the up-and-up, progressing from a losing season two years ago to a 10-3 one last year.
Last season, they became formidable on defense, allowing 22.1 points per game, whereas they had allowed 7.3 more points per game two years ago.
Their entire secondary could return, including Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist Xavier Scott.
Edge rusher Gabe Jacas likewise passed on the NFL Draft to return to Illinois.
Illinois' quarterback, running back group, and offensive line likewise return intact. The Illini will reload at wide receiver.
This looks like a really good group in a landscape inundated with teams undergoing significant change. Illinois' evolving ability and cohesion makes them a worthwhile sleeper consideration.
My Pick
While Illinois is for the long-shot bettors out there who like investing their lunch money in sleepers, LSU is my favorite pick.
Most crucially, the Tigers return quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who is deservedly a Heisman frontrunner.
Quarterbacks at LSU tend to take absurd jumps in their second year under the same offense. Nussmeier has the talent to make such a jump.
He also has a better wide receiver crew, which features key returners and an incredible group of transfers that includes record-setter from Oklahoma Nic Anderson and Barion Brown, who amassed well over 3,000 all-purpose yards and 18 touchdowns in three seasons at Kentucky.
One further reason why I explicitly prefer LSU over Clemson is the return of running back Caden Durham, who returns to LSU after amassing 1,013 all-purpose yards last year as a freshman.
Conversely, Clemson loses its starting running back on whom it depended tremendously.
Looking at LSU's defense, returners in the defensive line, linebacker, and secondary groups will ensure a strong defense.
This is the fruition of years of achieving high-ranking recruiting groups.
Noteworthy talents who are panning out include pass-rusher Harold Perkins, who is a two-time All-SEC selection, and the SEC's leading tackler from last season Whit Weeks.
LSU is going to have an elite offense next season primarily thanks to its pass attack, and its defense will be well-rounded and more than good enough.
Best Bet: LSU at +2200 with Bet365
The Odds (per Bet365)
Ohio State +425
Georgia +600
Texas +600
Oregon +650
Penn State +1000
Alabama +1400
Notre Dame +1600
Tennessee +1800
Clemson +2000
Ole Miss +2000
LSU +2200
...
Betting Strategy
The best long-term strategy for futures betting is to hunt for value.
This means betting prices instead of teams.
Over time, a certain percentage of your smart, well-reasoned wagers will hit. If you bet according to prices, then you will profit more because your successes will net a greater payout.
Open Field
This being said, there isn't much to like about the more heavily favored teams. The odds seem to be heavily influenced by the most recent results and do not account sufficiently for the mostly personnel-based changes that each team will undergo.
Ohio State is the favorite, but it loses a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball.
It loses its extremely efficient quarterback and key pieces like second-leading wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and defensive standout Jack Sawyer.
The entire starting defensive line departs, in fact. The running back room, offensive line, secondary, and linebacker group will also get hit hard with significant losses.
A lot of these favored teams lose their quarterback and suffer a worse outlook at this key position: such teams also include Oregon, which loses its Heisman finalist, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ole Miss.
Penn State retains its quarterback but is impossible to like given head coach James Franklin's reputation for losing big games, as evident in his awful record against top-five and top-ten opponents.
Texas gets a new quarterback who has accumulated some playing time, but it will miss its top two and six of its top nine wide receivers. It also loses six defensive starters, including its star cornerback, 2024 Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron, who is impossible to replace.
The Big Sleeper
For those who like to take a crack at a long-shot, you might find it worthwhile to invest in Illinois. The Illini are listed at +17500 to win the national title.
They are a program that is on the up-and-up, progressing from a losing season two years ago to a 10-3 one last year.
Last season, they became formidable on defense, allowing 22.1 points per game, whereas they had allowed 7.3 more points per game two years ago.
Their entire secondary could return, including Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist Xavier Scott.
Edge rusher Gabe Jacas likewise passed on the NFL Draft to return to Illinois.
Illinois' quarterback, running back group, and offensive line likewise return intact. The Illini will reload at wide receiver.
This looks like a really good group in a landscape inundated with teams undergoing significant change. Illinois' evolving ability and cohesion makes them a worthwhile sleeper consideration.
My Pick
While Illinois is for the long-shot bettors out there who like investing their lunch money in sleepers, LSU is my favorite pick.
Most crucially, the Tigers return quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who is deservedly a Heisman frontrunner.
Quarterbacks at LSU tend to take absurd jumps in their second year under the same offense. Nussmeier has the talent to make such a jump.
He also has a better wide receiver crew, which features key returners and an incredible group of transfers that includes record-setter from Oklahoma Nic Anderson and Barion Brown, who amassed well over 3,000 all-purpose yards and 18 touchdowns in three seasons at Kentucky.
One further reason why I explicitly prefer LSU over Clemson is the return of running back Caden Durham, who returns to LSU after amassing 1,013 all-purpose yards last year as a freshman.
Conversely, Clemson loses its starting running back on whom it depended tremendously.
Looking at LSU's defense, returners in the defensive line, linebacker, and secondary groups will ensure a strong defense.
This is the fruition of years of achieving high-ranking recruiting groups.
Noteworthy talents who are panning out include pass-rusher Harold Perkins, who is a two-time All-SEC selection, and the SEC's leading tackler from last season Whit Weeks.
LSU is going to have an elite offense next season primarily thanks to its pass attack, and its defense will be well-rounded and more than good enough.
Best Bet: LSU at +2200 with Bet365
