2025 cfl thread

[spottie2935]

I have a lot of photos and data photos that get lost is the main thread so I’ll post here so I can keep tabs on what’s going on.

 

[spottie2935]

Week1
Some of the experts go 3-1 and the others 2-2 When the first 2 hit was time to fade

 

[spottie2935]

So here is some of the data from week 1

Ticats overs still killing it 9-2 run and the highest total I’ve seen in a while.

 

[spottie2935]

Argos failed and this could be a trend. They need to get back to running and defense. Most likely now they will meaner back and forth over and under. There narrow total line range has been a factor. From 49 to 53 so when these adjust higher it’s a an opportunity. Some days their defense will cause them a problem sometimes their offense might assist unders

 

[spottie2935]

So here is regression and what happened as far as this is concerned. The teams with the most teaser failures from last season went 3-1 ats in week 1 the one loss was against another opponent in this category. Eliminate that game it’s 2-0



This keeps track of the perception of the teams. What is carried forward from last years perceptions and it’s a reversal.

 

[spottie2935]

7 point teaser winners in week 1

Lions
Stamps
Riders
Red blacks
ALS

Failures were
Ticats
Elks
Argos

 

[spottie2935]

Since the pandemic these teams are the victims of the most teaser fails and as it seems the most over lined. Looking for a reversal. It’s not that unbalanced though.

 

[spottie2935]

Now I have to look at if there are consecutive failures from the end of last season.

 

[spottie2935]

Bc and Sask were the public darlings last week and covered. 73% and 71% that is something to consider.

 

[spottie2935]

Favorites that were favored last week and covered

BC at Wpg

Sask @ Ticats

Sask vs. Ticats both covered their teasers. No extreme immediate overlay.

 

[spottie2935]

Teams that exceeded their team totals and also the total

The best 2 teams running doing this only when favored : Argus and Wpg.


So week 1 the best 2 teams as favorites Argos a dog no play

WPG off.

Could be a factor why dogs failed.

So the best favorites that don’t have a long history are

Rides
ALS
Lions

Possible fades


Argos
Bombers

These teams have been poor or dogs:
Stamps
Ticats
Red Blacks
Elks

 

[spottie2935]

So as it sits fade these favorites

Argos
Bombers
Ticats
Elks
Red Blacks
Stamps

 

[spottie2935]

Week 2 possibles

ALS
Stamps

Ticats are iffy

 

[spottie2935]

Last week Fan Duel week 2 lines



BC -2.5
@Wpg 47.5
another favorite would be 4-1 ats and I can’t bet WPG even if they are a dog.

Mtl 48.5.
@Ott -1.5
I think this is wrong because the dogs only covered once. Dogs 1-4 posiibly. This would bring back some balance. Broadly a high consensus dog

Calg 50.5
@Tor -5.5 this is probably my POW but get in early the line will drop

Sask -2.5
@Ham 49.5

Eh not excited about it too much except the Ticats can score and played pretty bad last week. Lean Ticats with caution ️

 

[spottie2935]

Montreal and Calgary lean Ticats

 

[spottie2935]

Unders :

Ticats if Sask slows them down but the total must be high because both teams should have some success. 53.5 last week on the road and home usually brings more points. While the Riders played Ott and gave up 26.

Under Argos

Under Red Blacks

 

[spottie2935]

Fade these teams as F

Season=2025

Argos
Bombers
Ticats 0-1
Elks
Red Blacks
Stamps

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

Argos failed and this could be a trend. They need to get back to running and defense. Most likely now they will meaner back and forth over and under. There narrow total line range has been a factor. From 49 to 53 so when these adjust higher it’s a an opportunity. Some days their defense will cause them a problem sometimes their offense might assist unders

I'm heavy on their season wins under 11 after reading up on many of the "experts" expecting them to take a big step back after so many players jumping ship