2025 cfl thread

Argos failed and this could be a trend. They need to get back to running and defense. Most likely now they will meaner back and forth over and under. There narrow total line range has been a factor. From 49 to 53 so when these adjust higher it’s a an opportunity. Some days their defense will cause them a problem sometimes their offense might assist unders
 

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So here is regression and what happened as far as this is concerned. The teams with the most teaser failures from last season went 3-1 ats in week 1 the one loss was against another opponent in this category. Eliminate that game it’s 2-0



This keeps track of the perception of the teams. What is carried forward from last years perceptions and it’s a reversal.
 

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7 point teaser winners in week 1

Lions
Stamps
Riders
Red blacks
ALS

Failures were
Ticats
Elks
Argos
 

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Since the pandemic these teams are the victims of the most teaser fails and as it seems the most over lined. Looking for a reversal. It’s not that unbalanced though.
 
Now I have to look at if there are consecutive failures from the end of last season.
 

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Bc and Sask were the public darlings last week and covered. 73% and 71% that is something to consider.
 
Favorites that were favored last week and covered

BC at Wpg

Sask @ Ticats

Sask vs. Ticats both covered their teasers. No extreme immediate overlay.
 
Teams that exceeded their team totals and also the total

The best 2 teams running doing this only when favored : Argus and Wpg.


So week 1 the best 2 teams as favorites Argos a dog no play

WPG off.

Could be a factor why dogs failed.

So the best favorites that don’t have a long history are

Rides
ALS
Lions

Possible fades


Argos
Bombers

These teams have been poor or dogs:
Stamps
Ticats
Red Blacks
Elks
 

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Last week Fan Duel week 2 lines



BC -2.5
@Wpg 47.5
another favorite would be 4-1 ats and I can’t bet WPG even if they are a dog.

Mtl 48.5.
@Ott -1.5
I think this is wrong because the dogs only covered once. Dogs 1-4 posiibly. This would bring back some balance. Broadly a high consensus dog 🐶

Calg 50.5
@Tor -5.5 this is probably my POW but get in early the line will drop

Sask -2.5
@Ham 49.5

Eh not excited about it too much except the Ticats can score and played pretty bad last week. Lean Ticats with caution ⛔️
 
Unders :

Ticats if Sask slows them down but the total must be high because both teams should have some success. 53.5 last week on the road and home usually brings more points. While the Riders played Ott and gave up 26.

Under Argos

Under Red Blacks
 
spottie2935 said:
Argos failed and this could be a trend. They need to get back to running and defense. Most likely now they will meaner back and forth over and under. There narrow total line range has been a factor. From 49 to 53 so when these adjust higher it’s a an opportunity. Some days their defense will cause them a problem sometimes their offense might assist unders
Click to expand...


I'm heavy on their season wins under 11 after reading up on many of the "experts" expecting them to take a big step back after so many players jumping ship
 
Season>2021 and t:team and D

There are only 2 teams with a winning covers record
Toronto and Winnipeg all the other teams are less than 53%
 
Took the Elks as I posted here pregame but I actually waited and had+10.5 as I stated in the in game thread. Posting and actual betting are different because if I don’t disclose my pregame thoughts exact lines in game are difficult to grab.
 
Anyway I’m on all the rest of the dogs this week. The big beloved team win and covered now all the meanderings behind. All the rest of these team can be up and down.
 

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day off so i am pouring into some season data:


2025 Montreal scoring by quarter

Montreal favored in all games '

1st 25-3
2nd 33-9
1st half combined =58-12

3rd 18-15
4th 29-29 47-44 combined

so they get control of the game early dont make mistakes late. play game control and keep away.

They have also played 3 of the bottom teams in Elks RedBlacks Argos

Tonight will be the most difficult test so far but that being said they will face more difficult tests ahead.

If the TiCats are a better team than Montreal's previous 3 opponents There should be a hamilton 1st half lead and at leear 1 of the first half quarter wins

play TiCats 1st half and full game also of note Montreals easy schedul will soon get more challenging and the precedent being set is the bar is too high.
 
2025 TiCats notes and scoring by quarter

of note the Ticats only favored once on the season


1st 13-17
2nd 16-27
half combined 29-44
3rd 14-24
4th 37- 35
2nd half combined 51-59

with MBT starting for Montreal and this TiCat team probably the best opponent so far my expectations are:

A TiCat win and 1st half cover
A send half under
A 4th Q under
 
No play tomorrow on BC/ Sask

Sask either loses straight up or covers big the way I see it.

Sask has played 3 close games all wins. This should be different.

I have done really well this week.
 
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