2024 NFL FUTURES/FANTASY/Week 1/Predictions/English Premier League+DEGENERATE rambling

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
What's up Family??? Hope you're all enjoying the summer that seemingly flies by at light speed. Wish our Buffalo winters flew by like this LOL ...

Anyways it's my favorite time of the year as a football futures investor.
Let's get right to it !!!












BEST of HEALTH, WEALTH, HAPPINESS, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!!
 
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Adding my favorite NFL player prop


KHALIL SHAKIR OVER 625.5 recieving yards. -112
$2,240 to WIN $2,000 ( 10 units mortgage wager )
The lone holder from last year's recieving core is primed for a breakout season after leading the NFL in catch rate in 2023.
Shakir had 23 catches on 25 targets for 264 yards (2 Tds ) over the last 5 games. My current predictions have Shakir catching 70+ balls for 820+ yards , 7+ tds ( this is a conservative forecast) ...
Strongly recommend drafting Shakir as the BILLS #1 WR in fantasy drafts. In 12 team leagues he usually goes anywhere from the 9th -11th round offering tremendous value without any real risk .





Edit : back at Seneca Buffalo this morning to put another $896 to win $800 after the sportsbook put a $40 Max bet on the Shakir wager yesterday after I fired 8 $150 wagers and one $144 ...
 

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Point Spread Ratings for week 1
( can and will change)
NOT projected standings .
NOT meant for hypothetical matchups .

Point Spread Ratings suggested wagers are 3.48+ off the actual line

*BILLS -6.5, RAIDERS +3 , and GIANTS +1.5 are suggested wagers


UPDATED. September 8th TBC

AFC

RAVENS 98.64
BENGALS. 93.70. HF +2.77 (-10.84 vs Patriots )
BROWNS 91.08. HF +2.08. ( -0.59 vs Cowboys )
STEELERS. 88.94


BILLS. 96.22 . HF +2.84 (-10.06* vs Cardinals )
JETS 92
DOLPHINS 91.42 HF +2.11 ( -2.20 vs Jaguars)
PATRIOTS. 85.63


TEXANS. 93.08
COLTS. 91.11 HF +2.01 (-0.04 vs Texans )
JAGUARS. 91.33
TITANS. 89.87


CHIEFS. 99.08. HF +2.85. ( -3.29 vs Ravens )
RAIDERS. 89.47. +1.99. (-3.73* at Chargers )
BRONCOS 87.88
CHARGERS 87.73
 
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NFC

EAGLES. 94.42. ( -1.23 v Packers )
COWBOYS 92.57
GIANTS. 89.89 HF+2.09 (--5.02* vs Vikings)
HOGS. 89.76

LIONS. 95.26. HF +2.84 (-7.08 vs Rams )
PACKERS 93.19
BEARS. 90.37. HF. +2.37 (-2.87 vs TITANS)
VIKINGS 85.96


FALCONS 91.55. HF +2.20. ( -4.81 vs Steelers )
BUCCANEERS 90.95 HF+2.63. ( -3.82 vs HOGS )
SAINTS. 88.56. HF +2.19 ( -4.02 vs Panthers )
PANTHERS 86.73


49ERS. 97.12. Hf +2.19. (-7.31 vs Jets)
RAMS 91.02
SEAHAWKS 91.11. HF+3.02 (-6.25 vs Broncos )
CARDINALS 89
 
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Week 1 standard wager investments (1+ unit)

Smaller plays less than a unit will be in following posts below



1 unit =$200

Standard wagers 1-2.4 units
Large wagers 2.5 - 5 units
Mortgage wagers 5.5+ units



Updated September 9th



RAIDERS. +3 -110 to win 1.5 units
$330/$300

RAIDERS ML +137
1.5UNITS
$300/$411

Currently my favorite investment for week 1 .

Love this spot for DA RAIDERS right out of the gate for what should be home game at LAC.

Chargers are going through massive changes across the board. The culture shift may take awhile. Score chart has Raiders 24-16



KHALIL SHAKIR OVER 49.5 REC YARDS +117 ( Seneca Buffalo)
$200/234
We might see plus money on Shakir's 50+ for awhile after this game.

SHAKIR OVER 3.5 CATCHES -115 ( Dk)
$230/200




JAMESON WILLIAMS 40+ RECIEVING YARDS
-110 $275/250
-105. $157.50/150
Easily one of my favorite player props for week 1 .. My numbers have 5-85




KENNETH WALKER TD -110
$220/200



GIANTS. -1 -106 1 UNIT
$212/200
Looks like a decent spot for the Giants in New Jersey vs a squad with plenty of questions ..
 
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PLAYOFF recap



As posted here on Feb 15, 2024
NFL PLAYOFFS UPDATE

+$2,114 Super Bowl
+$2,403.50 Conference championships
+$1847.50 Divisional round
+$486. Super Wildcard round

+$6,851 Playoff total

Best playoffs in a long time. Don't think the handicapping was real good , lots of of luck was invloved like the mortgage McCaffrey yards SB prop cashing by 1 yard that could have been a $3250+ swing ..
 
Premier league Match day 1

Was lucky to have a profitable summer of wagering on futbol as posted here on CTG in the MAC football thread

EURO/COPA AMERICA+$1,714

Olympic Futbol +$602

Hopefully its a sign of things to come as The Premier League kicks off








IPSWICH TOWN NOT to score +123
$100/123
All.rise as we got up at 7 for our Reds to kickoff the season..




Edit adding


Parlay +122 ; $100/122
ARSENAL -1.5 -220
NEWCASTLE -1
The Gunners should be fighting for the top of the table. Newcastle are my sleeper for top 4.



ASTON VILLA +180
$60/$108
Could be one of the best matches of the day with two ascending clubs.




Exact score props
ARSENAL 3-0. +525 $30/$157.50
ARSENAL +4-0. +700
$17/$119
ASTON VILLA. 2-1. +850
$15/127.50
ASTON VILLA 3-2. +2000
$6/120




Ridiculous futures donations

Most Goals( season )
COLE PALMER +2400. $48
MARTINELLI. +7500. $22

NEWCASTLE TO WIN +3300
$61
 
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Premier league Match day 1

IPSWICH TOWN NOT to score +123
$100/123
All.rise as we got up at 7 for our Reds to kickoff the season..




Edit adding


Parlay +122 ; $100/122
ARSENAL -1.5 -220
NEWCASTLE -1
The Gunners should be fighting for the top of the table. Newcastle are my sleeper for top 4.



ASTON VILLA +180
$60/$108
Could be one of the best matches of the day with two ascending clubs.




Exact score props
ARSENAL 3-0. +525 $30/$157.50
ARSENAL +4-0. +700
$17/$119
ASTON VILLA. 2-1. +850
$15/127.50
ASTON VILLA 3-2. +2000
$6/120




Ridiculous futures donations

Most Goals( season )
COLE PALMER +2400. $48
MARTINELLI. +7500. $22

NEWCASTLE TO WIN +3300
$61





Solid Saturday
EPL to date +$350





LIVERPOOL won 2-0. +$123.

Parlay +$45 ARSENAL won 2-0 , Newcastle won 1-0 push on 2nd leg .


ASTON VILLA won 2-1. +$108
Exact score 2-1. +$127.50

-$53 on losing exact score props ..






Adding Sunday action.


MAN CITY at CHELSEA
... Hate these stand alone spots just like many of the same scenarios in the NFL.
I'll stick with the low risk exact score prop . Win or lose its nice sometimes to watch matches with no stress lol

Exact score props
MAN CITY. 3-1. +1200. $20
3-2. +1700. $2
2-2. +900. $26
2-3 +2400. $11

-$59 on Sunday










Adding Monday.
EPL to date +$291



Leicester City under 0.5 goals +185
$60/$111
Should be tough sledding without their top 2 scoring options today. Probably wouldn't bet this if it wasn't something to watch on a rainy Monday...
 
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FANTASY FOOTBALL

QB RANKINGS for 12 entry league with 1 starting QB ..

My strategy has been a simple one since I started doing fantasy football in 1986.
NEVER DRAFT a QB BEFORE THE 8th ROUND!!!

Especially now more than ever when every team throws the ball. The value is there to wait until rounds 8-12 to draft two qbs ....


* TARGET
@ AVOID



Updated AUGUST 20TH






TIER 1.
Let someone else take these guys early .

Projected round next to player
1. JOSH ALLEN. 2
2. HURTS. 3-4
3. MAHOMES. 3-4
4. LAMAR. 3-4




TIER 2. While I don't mind any of the qbs in TIER 2 there is no way I'd take a qb in rounds 4-6 ...

Projected round next to player
5. STROUD. 4-5. @
6. BURROW. 5. @
7. PRESCOTT. 5. @@
8. RICHARDSON. 5. @
9. MURRAY. 6. @
10. LOVE. 6
11. PURDY. . 6-7
12. TUA. 7+






TIER 3. Here is where I look for a valuable starter after already focusing on the Flex positions ( RB/WR/TE ) during first 7+ rounds.

13. COUSINS. 8-10. **
14. STAFFORD. 8-10. **
15. LAWERENCE. 9-11*
16. GOFF. 9-11. **
17. DANIELS. 9-11. **
18. C WILLIAMS. 9-11 .*
19 HERBERT. 10-12




TIER 4. While I'd prefer my #1 is from the TIER above, there are 3 quality sleepers in this TIER that are start worthy in the right matchups ..

20. G SMITH 11-13. * was up a tier last year.
21. RODGERS 11-13. So many questions ? I don't have much faith in his battle vs father time.
22. LEVIS. 11-13. ** Expecting a big step forward .
23. WATSON. 11-13
24. MAYFIELD. 11-13 *



TIER 5. Not sure you want to depend on any of these but if you plan on trading either of your top 2 qbs drafting one of these very late makes sense

25. D JONES. * 13+
26. CARR.* 13+
27. MINSHEW. 13+
28 YOUNG* 14+
29. DARNOLD. 15+
30 MAYE. ?
31 NIX. ?
32. Fields ???
 
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FANTASY FOOTBALL

TIGHT END RANKINGS

Strategy going into the 2024 fantasy draft is to take a TE somewhere in rounds 5-9 ...

* TARGET

@ AVOID





TIER 1. Let someone else pick the top 3 on this list !!! Round 5 is the earliest I'd draft a TE this season . KINCAID might catch 90+ balls this season as the likely BILLS top target ..
Projected Round
1. KELCE. 2-3. @
2. LAPORTA. 3. @
3. ANDREWS. 4. @
4. KINCAID. 5. ****
5. MCBRIDE. 5. ***


TIER 2.
Excellent value here...I'm higher on Tight ends this season than I've ever been in the past..

6. ENGRAM. 6-7. **
7. PITTS. 6-7. *
8. KITTLE. 6-7. *
9. FERGUSON. 8. **
10. NJOKU. 8-9.




TIER 3.
Not much separates TIERS 2 and 3 ...Plan is to draft 2 tight ends in my top 16 ..
11. GOEDERT. 9-10.
12. SCHULTZ. 9-10. *
13. FREIERMUTH. 11-12. **
14. KMET. 11-12. *
15. BOWERS. 11-12. *
16 OKONKWO. 11-13. **










TIER 4.
Draft worthy ( everyone should have 2+ TE rostered IMO)
17. KNOX. 12-14. *
18 MUSGRAVE. 12-14. *
19. OTTON. 14+ *
20. CONKLIN. 14+ *
21 LIKELY. 14+
22. HENRY.
23. J SMITH
24. HOCKENSON. ??
 
RUNNING BACK

UPDATED 8-23

Where fantasy leagues are won!!! for 38 years I've drafted RBS early and often , usually with 3 of my first 5 picks..

I pick 12th in my big league ( $500 entry ) , good chance I take a RB and WR back to back. But 2 RB's Is possible .



Tier. 1
1. MCCAFFREY. 1st pick overall ***



Tier 2.
PROJECTED ROUND
2 HALL. 1 **
3 ROBINSON. 1 @@ Let someone else take him
3. TAYLOR. 1.** Major bounce back on deck
4 BARKLEY. 1**
5. L PACHECO. 1-2 *** Im way higher than most on Pacheco. Think he'll earn a round 1 grade this season
6 ETIENNE. 2** The Jags fell off down the stretch , and every expert is writing them off already this season. Etienne still finished RB #3 last year with a whopping 282 fantasy points




Tier 3
Projected ROUND
7. GIBBS. 2@@ Hamstring injury is a concern
8. K WILLIAMS. 2. @@ im avoiding at all costs .
9. HENRY. 2. *
10. ACHANE. 3 @ Not sure he can stay healthy
11. KAMARA. 3. *** I'm way higher on Alvin than most. Carr is the president of check downs .
12. WHITE. 3 *
13. JACOBS 3 *
14. J COOK. 3-4* I like Cook but make sure you grab handcuff Ray Davis.
15. MIXON. 3-4 *



TIER 4
Could be a big drop from Tier 3 but still some valuable fantasy starters

16. K WALKER. 4
17. JONES. 4-5 @
18. CONNER 4-5. *
19. STEVENSON 5-6 **
20. MONTGOMERY 5-6
21. SWIFT. 6-7
22. MOSTERT 6-7 *
23. Z WHITE 6-7 *
24. N HARRIS 6-7
25. CHUBB. 7-8



TIER 5
Careful there might be some sleepers here , but some busts are likely
26. J WILLIAMS 7-8
27. SINGLETARY 8-9*
28. SPEARS 8-9*
29. C BROWN 8-9**
30. ROBINSON 8-9*
31 EKELAR 8-9*
32. G EDWARDS 9-10
33. BROOKS. 9-10 *
34. J FORD 9-10 *
35. ELLIOT. 9-10
36. WARREN. 9-10 @
37 POLLARD 8-10 @@
38. DOBBINS 9-10. *
39. HUBBARD 9-10
40. MCLAUGHLIN 10-11 *
41. CHARBONNET 10-12
42 DOWDLE. 10-12 *
43. R DAVIS BILLS 11-13 ***
44. K MILLER NO. 11-13 *
45. MOSS. 11-13



TIER 6
46. CORUM. 12-14 *
47. ALLGIER. 13-14
48. GIBSON. 14-15
49. BENSON. 14-15
50. CHANDLER 14-15 *
51. PIERCE. 14-15. *
52. R JOHNSON. 14-16
53. J MASON 14-15. **
54. MATTISON 14-16
55. J WRIGHT. 14-16 *
56. CEH. 15-16
57. M SANDERS. 16




TBC
 
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English Premier League
Match day 2. ( week 2 )

Season to date +$231



Saturday

MAN CITY -2.5 -125.
$125/100

CRYSTAL PALACE -110
$110/100



Exact score prop
ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL
1-2. +650. $32
1-3. +1100. $18
2-2. +1150. $17
2-3. +1950. $8





Sunday Action

NEWCASTLE +118
$150/$177
Right back on the Magpies this as they try to get the Bournemouth mon key off their backs. They're 0-4 the last 2 seasons v the low hanging Cherries .. I was expecting to pay -120 here so the +118 was an insta bet








-$235 for match day ...

-$4 YTD for the first 2 weeks of the season
 
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Had the $500 entry draft last night. ( sorry didn't want to post the WR rankings before the draft , figured my son or another person in the league might be reading my posts here lol ) ..
Happy with the results ....Although Pacheo at 12 overall might have been a reach?

QB COUSINS. Glad I waited so late to take a QB. Had Cousins rated 2-3 rounds higher than where he went .

RB PACHECO. Would have taken Barkley or Taylor but they went the two picks before me .Predicting Pacheco to have a monster season

RB KAMARA. Didn't think he'd be there at the end of round 3. President of check downs Carr will make sure the Kamara is a top end RB.

WR. ADAMS. Had a fantastic season last year despite horrible qb play . Minshew should be a nice upgrade

WR LONDON. Thought he'd go 15+ picks earlier. Love the stack with Cousins

FLEX. STEVENSON. PATS qbs should be checking down

FLEX FLOWERS. Great numbers as a rookie last year . Should take another step forward

TE. SCHULTZ. Clearly the weak spot on this team...Didn't want to take a TE earlier though.

K. ZEURLIN
D. LIONS



QB STAFFORD

RB. MOSTERT. Feels like a steal

RB R DAVIS. Think he might take Cook's job in season

WR. HOPKINS. Nice option on the bench .

WR. SHAKIR. Suprised he didn't go much earlier with 7 of the 12 entries being BILLS MAFIA

WR. WICKS. Sleeper , can't see Watson ever being healthy for more than a few weeks .



TE OKONKWO. One of my sleepers, but could be headed to the waiver wire for a pickup after week 1
 

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WR. RANKINGS


TIER
1. LAMB. 1 *
2. ST BROWN 1. **
3. HILL. 1. *
4. CHASE. 1
5. AJ BROWN. 1. *


TIER 2.
6. JEFFERSON. 1-2. @ Im down on JJ with Darnold at qb ..Let someone else take him.
7. ADAMS. 1-2 * Old reliable. Think Minshew is a nice upgrade
8. WILSON. 1-2. @ No faith in old arse Rodgers
9. NACUA. 2. Should be very good , just not sure he comes close to last years record setting season
10 LONDON. 2-3.*** Monster year on deck ??
11. OLAVE. 2-3. It's a pass for me but still valuable
12. DJ MOORE. 2-4***. Another player I'm way higher than most on .
13. KUPP. 2-3 @ Pass for me
14. HARRISON JR. 2-3 @@
15. N COLLINS 3
16. DEBO. 3 *


TIER 3.
17. EVANS. 2-3. **
18. DK METCALF. 3-4. *
19. WADDLE. 3-4.
20. D SMITH. 3-4.
21. PITTMAN. 4. *
22. NABERS 4*
23. COOPER. 4


TIER 4. There is a slew of players I don't like in here
24. DIGGS. 4-5. @@@ Too many options in Houston
25. FLOWERS 4-5.*** Anothrr step forward in year 2 !!
26. KIRK. 5
27. HIGGINS 5. @
28. AIYUK 5@ Gettint traded ?
29. K ALLEN 5-6 *
30. RICE. 5-6. *
31 DELL. 5-6.
32. GODWIN 6*



TIER 5.
33. HOPKINS. 7-8. ** Can still be a force especially as your WR 2 OR 3
34. MCLAURIN 7-8. *
35. REED. 7 @ regression coming ?
36. RIDLEY. 8
37. X WORTHY. 8* Worth a stab
38. SHAKIR. 8-10**** Type of player who might help you win a championship.
39. WATSON. 7-9. @ My least favorite Packers WR
40. PICKENS 6-8. @@@@@ My major bust candidate
41. J WILLIAMS 8-9 ****** One of my favorite players on the board. Think he might get drafted in the 5th next year


TIER 6
42 . D JOHNSON 8-9 *
43. LOCKETT. 9
44. JSN. 9
45 . COLEMAN 9-10
46. MCCONKEY. 9*
47. M BROWN. 8-10
48. B THOMAS 8-10 *
49. ODUNZE. 8-10
50. SUTTON. 9-10 *



TBC
 
Adding future


RAIDERS to FINISH 2ND IN AFC WEST +500
$200/$1000

Crazy that the Chargers are -121 to finish 2nd. Ñot saying they can't , but at best these teams are very close imo .
 

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Adding
English Premier League

Liverpool -118.
$236/200
We'll bin our Reds kits cheering on our Boys ...Sort of an unsta homer bet , but we've looked good with 2 clean sheets and the highest goal expectancy in the league ..United look disappointing out of the gate ..

Under 0.5 United goals is a nice +260 , tempting!!!
 
CHIEFS. 3. RAVENS

Historically I'm atrocious at betting sides on the first Thursday game ..Game seems like a coin flip anyways ...Do have some concerns that it might take the Ravens O line a few games to gel ..

Just looking to get the degen fix needed without risking much in this spot.
Wouldn't recommend putting a unit+ on any wager on the board ..Spreading some small money around to increase action ..


All bets placed on Wednesday night ( DK)





PACHECO. TD. -105. 0.5 units
$105/100
I'm heavily invested on Pacheco in fantasy in both redrafts and best balls ...Pacheco TD is my favorite bet on the board but thats not really saying much






XAVIER WORTHY 70+ rec yards +295. $35/103.25
My beloved BILLS will be forcer linked to this player after the trade back with the Chiefs ...Worthy was on my short list of players I'd hope they'd take...Wouldn't be suprised if he goes bananas or at least uses his break away speed for a couple of longer receptions ..




BATEMAN
50+ REC YARDS +270. $17
70+ REC YARDS +700. $8
My last round pick in my most recent re draft...Just dropped him for Wandale Robinson so Rashod Bateman will probably go off LOL ..





OVERTIME +1200
$13
Ratings driven league might soak up all the time they can get ..

Successful 2 point conversion +275
$17
One of my favorite small bets in expected tight matchups
 
Adding futures


STEELERS UNDER 7.5 WINS +125
$400/500
For what it's worth my numbers have this being the worst Steelers team in a long long time ..Don't trust Russ , and Fields can't make reads or throw the ball in the ocean...Steelers fans might be calling for Tomlin to get sacked .



TITANS


To Win division +1000. $110
Finish 2nd. +650. $100


To make playoffs +450 ?( waiting until after Bears game to make a play if they lose)


Think they're headed in the right direction. Offseason moves on paper are extremely encouraging. Don't be suprised if Levis steadily improves ..
The South might end up being the best division in all of football ( I'd clearly pick NFC NORTH at the top entering the season)....My gut thinks the Texans are too sexy of a pick this year , maybe Stroud has a sophomore slump. Colts and Jags should both be better but the Titans should be just as good .
 
CHIEFS. 3. RAVENS

Historically I'm atrocious at betting sides on the first Thursday game ..Game seems like a coin flip anyways ...Do have some concerns that it might take the Ravens O line a few games to gel ..

Just looking to get the degen fix needed without risking much in this spot.
Wouldn't recommend putting a unit+ on any wager on the board ..Spreading some small money around to increase action ..


All bets placed on Wednesday night ( DK)





PACHECO. TD. -105. 0.5 units
$105/100
I'm heavily invested on Pacheco in fantasy in both redrafts and best balls ...Pacheco TD is my favorite bet on the board but thats not really saying much






XAVIER WORTHY 70+ rec yards +295. $35/103.25
My beloved BILLS will be forcer linked to this player after the trade back with the Chiefs ...Worthy was on my short list of players I'd hope they'd take...Wouldn't be suprised if he goes bananas or at least uses his break away speed for a couple of longer receptions ..




BATEMAN
50+ REC YARDS +270. $17
70+ REC YARDS +700. $8
My last round pick in my most recent re draft...Just dropped him for Wandale Robinson so Rashod Bateman will probably go off LOL ..





OVERTIME +1200
$13
Ratings driven league might soak up all the time they can get ..

Successful 2 point conversion +275
$17
One of my favorite small bets in expected tight matchups





NFL opening night +$72.90


Thread to Date

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE +$196


Horse Racing -$117. ( deleted the posts to unclutter the thread .
 
Adding

Khalil Shakir OVER 49.5 REC YARDS +117 ( Seneca Buffalo)
$200/234
We might see plus money on Shakir's 50+ for awhile after this game.

SHAKIR OVER 3.5 CATCHES -115 ( Dk)
$230/200
 
Adding

CHASE BROWN ( Bengals )
Might split carries with Moss, but Brown could be an excellent safety valve for Burrow .


Over 13.5 recieving yards -115
$172.50/$150

25+ recieving yards +215
$25

50+ recieving yards +1100
$7
 
Adding (DK)

Small player props

ZACH ERTZ 40+ recieving yards
+225
$43
Another player who might be the safety valve.
 
Adding

EAGLES vs PACKERS

Another game that I will not touch on the side or total...These player props look good enough for half unit wagers


JACOBS TD. +100. $120. (SB)

LOVE OVER 6.5 YARDS RUSHING -111. ( Seneca Buffalo )
$111




SMALLER PLAYS

WICKS REC YARDS. (DK)

40+ +170. $40

60+ +500. $8
 
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Adding

JAMESON WILLIAMS 40+ RECIEVING YARDS -110 $275/250
Easily one of my favorite player props for week 1 .. My numbers have 5-81


Demario Douglas 40+ rec yards -105
$105/100
 
Wow that Mason TD was a huge swing. Only wish I would have bet more ( obviously) at +850..Can't believe DK offered +850 past 3pm est when it sounded like McCaffrey would have limited touches at beat...

-$592 for week 1 ...
Could have been massacred as I was down $1848 heading into Sunday night football ...Thankfully the Jameson Williams 2 unit bet was made earlier in the day , otherwise I might have just tuned the page to week 2 ..
Sorry for anyone who has even slightly encouraged by the brutal picks above.
 
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