2024 Golf Discussion - Playoff Time -- East Lake

[gps_3]

Looks like benign conditions again this week, so scoring should be low. 8 of last 10 champs played Kapalua the week before.

In addition to Woodland returning, Will Zalatoris is making his return to the Tour, although he did play at the Hero last month. Willy Z may be on my fade list. He did not look great with the putter in the Bahamas, and these grainy Bermuda greens are notoriously tough on the short putts

 

[laopadak]

Ludvig is the favorite to win the Sony? Has he ever played it? I know he's really good and a lot of standard thoughts don't apply to him, but being the favorite here seems a stretch

Thought the same on Ludvig.

Some good notes / thoughts in this article too:

https://www.thelines.com/sony-open-odds-pga-tour-golf-betting-preview-2024/

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1744769215398060137

 

[laopadak]

Sony Open- 1st play, why not...baby needs new shoes!

 

[laopadak]

Shoes are overrated... Still like the SW Kim & Poston top 10 (ties paid) play so put another half unit on it, along with the GB and Bills play.

Rd. 1 play- Svensson over Todd -115 2u.

GL this week boys.

 

[chipnotized]

Sony

2.04u
Hole in One--NO -102

1u each

Rai--Top 10 +700
JJ Spaun--Top 10 +700

3.6u
Henley to Make Cut -360

3u
Conners to Make Cut -300

1u each

Glover to Miss Cut +165
Aberg to Miss Cut +330
Kirk to Miss Cut +200
Cole to Miss Cut +275

Swing it easy fellas.

 

[laopadak]

GL on your plays @chipnotized surprising list of miss cuts but fortune favors the brave.

Can't always be a square player, as I try to remind myself at times.

 

[chipnotized]

Might as well get over 15u total in play:

1u each

Top Japanese--Kanaya +405
Rd1 Top 10--Kitayama +650

 

[laopadak]

Tailing that Quadzilla Rd.1 play..

 

[chipnotized]

GL on your plays @chipnotized surprising list of miss cuts but fortune favors the brave.

Can't always be a square player, as I try to remind myself at times.

Here's hoping the rolls go your way as well @laopadak

I was hesitant clicking submit on most of the miss cut wagers...except Glover--I think he gets the yips sweeping his kitchen floor.

 

[chipnotized]

Rd 2

0.25u
2nd Rd Matchup 4-teamer +894

Sigg ov Lipsky -150
Bhatia ov Kuchar -105
Van Rooyen ov Villegas -150
Montgomery ov Rodgers -120

 

[laopadak]

0-2 yesterday, -3u. Not as fun to watch as last week's Sentry but still I think there'll be some opportunities in the next few days, to parlay in with your favorite NFL plays.

Rd.2- Connors -130 v. Davis 5u

Add- Rd.2- Henley -135 v. Putnam 3u

 

[KJ]

Was up when Dubai came on, pretty disappointing how the live betting is basically non-existent when it was available last year.

 

[chipnotized]

3.6u
Henley to Make Cut -360

3u
Conners to Make Cut -300

1u each

Glover to Miss Cut +165
Aberg to Miss Cut +330
Kirk to Miss Cut +200
Cole to Miss Cut +275

Sweating the cut line tonight...it's currently projected at 2 under:

Henley -1 ..yet to tee off for rd2
Conners -2
Glover -1
Aberg -5 ..solid rd2 to put himself in the hunt
Kirk -4 ..just started his rd2
Cole -2

 

[gps_3]

I made some matchup bets, but I didn't post because I got a little distracted with the news earlier this week. Ended up fading Willy Z, just need Horschel to not blow up on the back 9 this evening. Bet against Cam Davis who of course shot -8 yesterday.

Billy Ho -120 vs Zalatoris
Keegan -115 vs B Todd
Denny McCarthy -125 vs Cam Davis
Harman -125 vs Conners

 

[laopadak]

1-1 Rd.2 +.85u, -2.15u for tourney so far. Seems every book has totally different match-ups and options. Gotta really dig to find something that sticks out. MGM has fallen off in recent months. Use to have a lot of options/plays but are now meh. Weather suppose to be good for remainder of the tournament and with a stacked leaderboard, it's up for grabs. Liking An, Kirk and Bhatia to take the dub.

Rd.3 play- Aberg -125 v. Noren for 5u (Bet Rivers)

GL this weekend in all sports

 

[chipnotized]

Wide open on moving day.

Leader after Rd3 -- 0.5u each

English +2900
Keegan +3300
Semikawa +7500

 

[Inspekdah]

Wide open on moving day.

Leader after Rd3 -- 0.5u each

English +2900
Keegan +3300
Semikawa +7500

English is Lane Kiffin

 

[laopadak]

Rd.3 add- Texans +8, over 36, Kirk -155 v. Mitchell +153 3u

 

[laopadak]

Wide open on moving day.

Leader after Rd3 -- 0.5u each

English +2900
Keegan +3300
Semikawa +7500

Nice hit on that Keegan play @chipnotized . Hopefully dead heat wasn't applicable or at least it paid at 50%.

1-1 yesterday -.5u, -2.65u for the tourney (add another -2u or so for long shot parlays). That Aberg play really hurt as I had Texans +8 and Chefs ML parlayed w/ it too. Oh well.

Rd.4 plays

Ben An -115 v. Keegan 4u
Bhatia under 67.5 -105 3u

Have a couple of long shot parlays with Cowboys ML, Rams +4, GB +1 (CBB), Wichita State +5.5 and includes Keegan, An or Kirk to get the Dub.

Hoping for an exciting day of golf and NFL. -6 degrees in Denver right now so not much to do today. Stay warm and hot on your plays.

 

[gps_3]

I made some matchup bets, but I didn't post because I got a little distracted with the news earlier this week. Ended up fading Willy Z, just need Horschel to not blow up on the back 9 this evening. Bet against Cam Davis who of course shot -8 yesterday.

Billy Ho -120 vs Zalatoris
Keegan -115 vs B Todd
Denny McCarthy -125 vs Cam Davis
Harman -125 vs Conners

Horschel closed it out on Friday. Looking pretty good with Keegan and Harman. Cam Davis is giving me a shot by shooting E his last two rounds, McCarthy is 2 back. I'd be fine with everything holding for now

 

[chipnotized]

Nice hit on that Keegan play @chipnotized . Hopefully dead heat wasn't applicable or at least it paid at 50%.

1-1 yesterday -.5u, -2.65u for the tourney (add another -2u or so for long shot parlays). That Aberg play really hurt as I had Texans +8 and Chefs ML parlayed w/ it too. Oh well.

Rd.4 plays

Ben An -115 v. Keegan 4u
Bhatia under 67.5 -105 3u

Have a couple of long shot parlays with Cowboys ML, Rams +4, GB +1 (CBB), Wichita State +5.5 and includes Keegan, An or Kirk to get the Dub.

Hoping for an exciting day of golf and NFL. -6 degrees in Denver right now so not much to do today. Stay warm and hot on your plays.

Yes unfortunately, dead heat rules were applied....none of my 17 outs pay out on ties.

-6 sounds downright tropical...woke up to -48 this morning with a light breeze to keep the bugs away

 

[chipnotized]

No matchups catch my eye, but BOL offered up plus money on either of the leaders to bring it home:

1u
Golf - Fed-Ex Events - Keegan Bradley / Grayson Murray vs The Field - Money Line | 6985 Keegan Bradley / Grayson Murray +106 for GAME

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746690533659918764

 

[laopadak]

lol at Harman. Love me some short, lefty bulldogs but I swear that twitching is something else.

2-0 Rd.4, 4-3 for tournament. +~3u on posted plays. Hit a few parlays but lost a bunch too. Profitable week/weekend so won't complain much.. Congrats to Grayson Murray on the win. Way to stay low-key throughout the final round, only to steal the dub. Onto the next..

 

[gps_3]

McCarthy came through for me. 4-0 on matchups, moving to 7-0 on the season. Maybe that's what I need to stick to lol. Another birdie fest coming up in La Quinta. Not a huge fan of the multi-course tournaments, but there's a pretty decent field so I'm sure I'll be watching

 

[B.A.R.]

lol at Harman. Love me some short, lefty bulldogs but I swear that twitching is something else.

2-0 Rd.4, 4-3 for tournament. +~3u on posted plays. Hit a few parlays but lost a bunch too. Profitable week/weekend so won't complain much.. Congrats to Grayson Murray on the win. Way to stay low-key throughout the final round, only to steal the dub. Onto the next..

Great work.

Hey, Harman will always be a favorite for that +14,000 last year but my goodness that's a tough watch.

 

[B.A.R.]

McCarthy came through for me. 4-0 on matchups, moving to 7-0 on the season. Maybe that's what I need to stick to lol. Another birdie fest coming up in La Quinta. Not a huge fan of the multi-course tournaments, but there's a pretty decent field so I'm sure I'll be watching

Great start man, welcome back.

 

[laopadak]

Amex Open- Looks to be tricky with the rotation of courses and not sure how best to approach. Will likely keep it light this week but hoping to put together some long shots to include Divisional rounds.

Some good tidbits in this article- 2024 PGA Tour: The American Express Course Preview and Breakdown

Was also hoping to get some spreadsheets from Ron Klos on X but seems you have to subscribe for the service. I don't mind paying but wish it were easier, and just be able to Venmo someone for the damn subscription. Please share those sheets if you have access. GL this week boys.

 

[laopadak]

Let's kick off Thursday on a good note- Amex Rd. 1 K. Mitchell under 68.5 -125 3u.

Add- Rd.1 Poston -180 v. Murray, Ottawa -185 v. Canadiens +139 1.6u

 

[gps_3]

Did a cursory run through the matchups last night, my book has a lot of tough ones. Will dive back in later and see if something jumps out at me.

 

[gps_3]

Here's what I'm playing:

JT +105 over Sungjae
Cantlay +143 over Scheffler
Burns -125 over Min Woo Lee
Si Woo Kim -140 over Shane Lowry

 

[chipnotized]

Amex Open- Looks to be tricky with the rotation of courses and not sure how best to approach. Will likely keep it light this week but hoping to put together some long shots to include Divisional rounds.

Some good tidbits in this article- 2024 PGA Tour: The American Express Course Preview and Breakdown

Was also hoping to get some spreadsheets from Ron Klos on X but seems you have to subscribe for the service. I don't mind paying but wish it were easier, and just be able to Venmo someone for the damn subscription. Please share those sheets if you have access. GL this week boys.

If you're in one of the states where Vivid Picks is available, you can get the 2024 Betsperts Golf sub for free:

Free 2024 Subscription to Betsperts Golf and full access to “The Rabbit Hole” with Vivid Picks Deposit And Play - Betsperts Golf

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747409537793933696

 

[chipnotized]

Playing uber-light this week..multi-course tourney, 54 hole cut and a pro-am to boot.

0.5u each

Tournament / Top Nationality - Rest of the World Sung-Jae Im +500

Tournament / Will there be a Hole in One -- No +251

Found an arb on Jaeger make/miss cut to milk a little bit out of:

Jaeger Miss Cut +220 at BOL
Jaeger Make Cut -200 at bwin

Swing it easy boys.

 

[laopadak]

Amex 1-1 Rd.1, -.6u.

Rd.2 play- Finau +125 v. X 3u. Think Finau picks up some ground today.

Add- Rd.2 Kooch under 69.5 -150 3u

 

[Inspekdah]

Amex 1-1 Rd.1, -.6u.

Rd.2 play- Finau +125 v. X 3u. Think Finau picks up some ground today.

Add- Rd.2 Kooch under 69.5 -150 3u

Nice 1s

 

[chipnotized]

3.26u

Golf - Fed-Ex Events - Nick Dunlap vs The Field - Money Line | 6986 The Field -163 for GAME | 01/21/2024 01:00:00 PM (EST) | Pending

...taking a shot that the moment catches up with Dunlap.

JT and Burns' chirping abilities may be underrated.

 

[laopadak]

Rd.4 play- Min Woo -148 v Smalley, TB +8, -165, +170 5u (Betrivers)

GL on your plays today fellas

 

[gps_3]

Could be a great day for me today. 2 Bammers chasing the win, and all 4 of my matchups in good position.

 

[gps_3]

Could be a great day for me today. 2 Bammers chasing the win, and all 4 of my matchups in good position.

Almost a perfect day. Cantlay blew a 5 stroke advantage over Scheffler, so I went 3-1. Couldn't be happier for Dunlap. That was awesome

 

[laopadak]

Amex record 3-1-1, +5u. FYI, Farmers Insurance starts on a Wednesday, ends Saturday. Suppose for not having to compete with the Conference title games. GL this week.

 

[chipnotized]

Rookies schooled me at the Amex...Highsmith hit the ace and then Dunlap maintain composure and closed the deal on Sunday.
-4.26u for the tourney.

Found a decent boost at BOL for the DP Tour this week:

Odds Booster - Daily Booster - Ras al Khaimah Championship Booster - WAS +1200 - Rasmus Hojgaard To Win The Ras Al Khaimah - NOW +1400

...datagolf has fair value on Hojgaard pegged at +1100.

 

[B.A.R.]

Amex record 3-1-1, +5u. FYI, Farmers Insurance starts on a Wednesday, ends Saturday. Suppose for not having to compete with the Conference title games. GL this week.

Good note.

This isn't the first year, but I had forgotten.

Love a Saturday final round!

 

[KJ]

Good note.

This isn't the first year, but I had forgotten.

Love a Saturday final round!

It's done the Saturday finish more than once but this is the first year in a LONG time it's the same weekend and the conference 'ships, it's always been the weekend between ships and the SB

 

[B.A.R.]

It's done the Saturday finish more than once but this is the first year in a LONG time it's the same weekend and the conference 'ships, it's always been the weekend between ships and the SB

Saturday last year.

Ended Sat the 28th

NFL conference champ games the next afternoon.



2022:

Tournament ended on Saturday as well, the 29th.

Championship Sunday was the 30th

 

[laopadak]

Farmers is another alternating course format, North / South course for first two days, finishing on the South course Friday / Saturday. Seems the South is the harder of the two, per slope but didn't find average PGA score to compare. Weather seems to be decent but still a tough venue, average round scores should be around 69 and winning total in the 15-17 under range, is my guess..

Threw Keegan in a 4-teamer at +8215 yesterday and he's the last leg. He came in 2nd last year to Homa, 2nd at Sony. Hoping he's in contention come Saturday with at least a good hedging opportunity.

 

[gps_3]

I think the South is definitely the harder of the two, as it's the one they use for the US Open when it's hosted. I think both are obnoxiously long. I saw on twitter yesterday that they got tons of rain in San Diego yesterday, so much so that they couldn't even have the Monday qualifying event, which was pushed to Tuesday. With the Wednesday start, the qualifiers will be unlikely to have a practice round, so something to think about if you are keen to fade them. I doubt my book will have them listed. Haven't gone through it yet, will take a look in a bit

 

[KJ]

North and South are night/day. North always plays much easier. Here's a decent comparison with the relevant course rating at 72.3 v 75.4.

Torrey Pines North Vs. South: A Pro Golfer's Comparison | (August 2024)

Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California, is home to two iconic golf courses: North and South. While both share stunning ocean views, they offer

sporticmedia.com

 

[chipnotized]

Tourney hasn't even started and the family is begging me to quit using the Farmers jingle with everything I say:

I am hungry...bum bumda bum bum bum bum bum
When is dinner?...bum bumda bum bum bum bum bum

1u
Tournament / Will there be a Hole in One No +119

1u each

Hossler to Miss Cut +165
Finau to Miss Cut +240

Top 20 -- Min Woo Lee & Aberg +350

Top 40 M. Kim +120
Top 40 T. Pendrith +125

Rd1 3-balls

Golf - 3 Balls - Farmers Insurance Open - 1st Round - Hossler / Ghim / Suh - Doug Ghim +220

Golf - 3 Balls - Farmers Insurance Open - 1st Round - List / Bhatia / Im - Luke List +215

Swing it easy boys.