2023 Playoffs; aka the Buffalo run...

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY
4/1.45 JAGUARS -275
3/2.86 TITANS 40 -105
3/2.91 CHIEFS -8½ -103

SUNDAY
3/2.86 RAMS +6 -105
4/3.85 JETS +3½ -104
3/2.86 DOLPHINS u37 -105
3/2.80 PACKERS -4½ -107
4/3.57 STEELERS -2½ -112
4/3.92 STEELERS u40 -102
3/3.90 TEXANS +130
4/3.81 COLTS u37½ -105
3/2.86 49ERS -14 -105
4/3.81 49ERS u39½ -105
3/2.88 BUCCANEERS +4 -104
5/4.76 FALCONS u40½ -105
3/2.86 COWBOYS -7 -105
3/2.86 COMMANDERS u40 -105
4/3.81 PANTHERS +3½ -105
4/3.77 SAINTS u41½ -106
5/4.76 BILLS -7½ -105
5/4.76 BENGALS -9 -105
3/2.88 VIKINGS -7 -104

Hate to see the regular season come to an end considering the run I've been on the past 6 weeks. Oh well put a fork in it and it was a solid season, but now it's a new day and we can look forward to tightly-lined playoffs as normal. But we can still profit as there's a winning side in every game.

Some interesting matchups if not many likely great games. Quick look I would lean with JAX, BUF and DAL. I wanna back SEA and BAL(w/Lamar?) and I'll be playing a few unders as usual.



DET finished the hottest team, but couldn't make up for that 1-6 start

 

[mrpickem]

Top teams to back in COVID era, 2020-22 sorted by ROI

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

Fantastic work Brother !!!!

You're in the small minority , my large local who takes action from Ohio at Quebec and dumped off action from other books said about 6-8% of his bettors won money this season

 

[mrpickem]

In 2 days almost every line has moved
Today:


Tuesday:

Both BUF & CIN lines grew the most by 2 points while the CIN total is down 3 ...it's not hard to see Lamar won't be playing, or at least that's the impression they want us to believe even though most reports still list him questionable.

 

[RetroVK]

line move is very good news for the jags

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

line move is very good news for the jags

These lines seem to be all over the place...
Here is the current line at Seneca Buffalo /Bet Rivers..
It's moved from LAC -1 to 2.5

 

[mrpickem]

All 4 books I currently use are Jax +2½

Heres a few others from betstamp and they still show one 1½

It'll be the coldest Jags home game ever although thats not saying much as it'll be in high 30s with winds 10-15

 

[mrpickem]

--- NFL ---
SEASON [194-163 +110.06u]
LAST [11-8 +8.89u]

SUNDAY
3/2.86 RAMS +6 -105
4/3.85 JETS +3½ -104
3/2.86 DOLPHINS u37 -105
3/2.80 PACKERS -4½ -107
4/3.57 STEELERS -2½ -112
4/3.92 STEELERS u40 -102
3/3.90 TEXANS +130
4/3.81 COLTS u37½ -105
3/2.86 49ERS -14 -105
4/3.81 49ERS u39½ -105
3/2.88 BUCCANEERS +4 -104
5/4.76 FALCONS u40½ -105
3/2.86 COWBOYS -7 -105
3/2.86 COMMANDERS u40 -105
4/3.81 PANTHERS +3½ -105
4/3.77 SAINTS u41½ -106
5/4.76 BILLS -7½ -105
5/4.76 BENGALS -9 -105
3/2.88 VIKINGS -7 -104

SATURDAY

• 3/2.86 Seahawks +9½ -105
• 3/2.86 49ers u42 -105
• 4/4.48 JAGUARS +120
• 3/2.86 CHARGERS o47 -105
• 2/1.25 TREVOR LAWRENCE UNDER PASS ATTEMPTS u34½ -160
• 4/2.96 TREVOR LAWRENCE RUSH YARDS OVER o14½ -135

RANDOMS

JAX 21-37-1 36.2% ATS W/LINE <=4 LAST 7 YEARS BUT HAVE WON AND COVERED 6 OF LAST 7​

LAC GAME W/LINE <=4 WERE UNDER TOTAL 57% 36-37-2 LAST 7 YEARS (UNDER 8-1-1 THIS SEASON)​

LA6 6-3-1 66.7% ATS W/LINE <=4 THIS SEASON​

LAST 25 MONTHS CHARGER GAMES W/LINE <=4: LAC 14-10-1 58.3% ATS ATS AND UNDER WAS 16-8-1 66.7%​

AWAY TEAMS W/LINE <=4 ARE 22-10-1 68.8% ATS THIS SEASON (49-39-2 55.7% L3 YEARS)​

bs FROM TOUT SERVICE POSSIBLY WORTH FADING

 

[mrpickem]

In the playoffs when favorites win, they have covered 78.6% over last 7 years

 

[Vapster]

Almost 80% Last 7 Years Is A Big Number! GL @mrpickem

 

[mrpickem]

--- NFL ---


SUNDAY

• 5/4.63 Bills -13½ -108
• 4/3.54 1H-Bills -8½ -113
• 4/3.81 Dolphins o44 -105
• 3/4.05 Giants +135
• 2.30/2 Giants +3 -115

RANDOMS
PLAYOFF CHALK >=10 @home 13-2 86.7% ATS LAST 20 YEARS (won last 11)
PLAYOFF CHALK <10 @home 64-85-3 43% ATS LAST 20 YEARS (2-5 last 7)
MIN GAMES LINED <=4 HAVE CASHED OVER 61.2% 41-26-2 OVER L7 YEARS (18-8 L26)
NYG GAMES LINED <=4 HAVE CASHED UNDER 61.1% 33-21-2 OVER L7 YEARS (15-4-1 L20)
NYG 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) overall this season
NYG 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as DOG this season
CIN 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) overall this season

NYG...These teams just met in Minny on Christmas Eve with MIN winning 27-24 (-4.5) on a last-second 61-yard FG. The Giants did have a 7.1-5.2 ypp edge in that game while without a couple of starters in the secondary (both should play today). Both teams are likely overrated but especially the Vikings. MIN is an incredible 11-0 SU in one-possession games this year. They are the first team in NFL history to win 12 or more games with a negative-point diff. The Vikings were -0.4 in ypp margin (No. 25) and DVOA ranks them No. 27 overall. Meanwhile, the Giants were also -0.4 in ypp margin. They did play a slightly tougher schedule and DVOA ranks them No. 21 overall. Unlike MIN who enters on a 1-4 ATS run, NYG has been under-valued at 13-4 ATS (best mark in the NFL).​

Some relevant 2022 stats of teams going today

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4.12/4 BENGALS -8 -103

 

[mrpickem]

View attachment 71714

PLAYOFFS [5-5 -1.60u]
LAST [3-3 -3.26u]

SATURDAY
3/2.86 Seahawks +9½ -105
3/2.86 49ers u42 -105
4/4.80 JAGUARS +120
3/2.86 CHARGERS o47 -105

SUNDAY
5/4.63 Bills -13½ -108
4/3.54 1H-Bills -8½ -113
4/3.81 Dolphins o44 -105
3/4.05 Giants +135
2.30/2 Giants +3 -115
4.12/4 BENGALS -8 -103

Was foolish to come in with Cincy play late, otherwise, I could have had another winning day. One thing's for sure...Burrow and Allen both will have to play much much better if they hope to get past KC and Mahomes.​

MONDAY

• 3/3.90 COWBOYS -3½ +130
• 2.30/2 COWBOYS -2½ -115
• 4/3.81 BUCS u45½ -105

I couldn't resist a chance to sell one point for 45 cents :haveanidea:

RANDOMS

DAL 23-12 68.4% ATS LAST 2 SEASONS (3RD BEST IN NFL)​

TB 14-21-1 40% ATS LAST 2 SEASONS (2ND WORSE IN NFL) (4-12-1 THIS SEASON)​

PLAYOFF ROAD CHALK 2-5 28.6% ATS LAST 7 YEARS (10-14-1 last 15)​

DAL 28-31-2 47.5% ATS w/LINE <=4 LAST 7 YEARS (10-6 IN L16)​

TB 24-37-1 39.3% ATS w/LINE <=4 LAST 7 YEARS (4-7-1 THIS SEASON / 2-7-1 L10)​

DAL GAMES LINED <=4 HAVE CASHED OVER 42.6% 26-35 OVER L7 YEARS​

TB GAMES LINED <=4 HAVE CASHED OVER 59.4% 38-26-1 OVER L7 YEARS (5-7 L11)​

DAL 25-20 55.6% ATS @NIGHT LAST 10 YEARS (9-2 LAST 2 YEARS)​

DAK HAS NFL HIGHEST 3.5% INT WHILE BRADY HAS LOWEST AT 1.1%​

TB 8-17-2 32% ATS @NIGHT LAST 10 YEARS (4-13-1 IN L8 AND 1-4-1 THIS SEASON)​

PRIME TIME GAMES LINE <=4 POINTS ARE 44-67-3 39.6% ON TOTAL SINCE 2019(1-10 SINCE DEC 1)​

• DAL...I find it hard to imagine the Boys exiting the Super Bowl race after enduring the usual combination of penalties, turnovers, bad coaching, bad situational decisions, poor play-calling by OC Kellen Moore, overpaid QB Dak Prescott 3.5% INT rate, you name it. It’s funny how DAL went into the first round last year off a 51-26 win vs PHI (two weeks after they’d beaten Washington 56-14) and still was eliminated by the 49ers. Maybe Jones feels better about their chances after finishing the regular season with a 26-6 loss at WAS! Quite literally the opposite of last year, brilliant approach right? Since the week one 19-3 loss to TB, the Cowboys have been near league-best until last week, going 12-3 in between. Other than Dak's (league-leading 15 INTs in only 12 games) getting hurt and missing a bunch of games afterward, maybe that game proved to awaken the beast. The Bucs became the passingest team in the NFL, but deployed a 33-27 run-skewed split vs DAL with Fournette going 21-127. It's hard to see TB looking great with a 45-year-old QB throwing 66.7% of the time, but they are still alive. They really haven't looked good in getting here though. The DAL game was the Buc's only win by more than one score, and it was before they became pass-happy clowns. Run-heavier is a wise way to attack the DAL-D but it doesn’t break a game open without defense or special teams scores. But with Fournette over-weight, complaining of a foot injury, and no solid backup, it'll be a tough row to hoe. With TB's 4-12-1 ATS mark, it appears the football world has finally found something more overrated than the Cowboys: “Brady” at least at his advanced age. Gimme the Boys oh say 24-13

​

 

[mrpickem]

Lines settling in...​

​

Mostly looks like a chalky weekend upcoming...at least at first glance

The gints have amassed some remarkable ATS numbers though and what with Danny Dimes dominating the viqueens last week... may be an upset in the making



Gints/Jags is the best-paying SB matchup possibility

​

 

[B.A.R.]

Thread delivers.

Congrats on your Jags, why not them? Why not now?

 

[mrpickem]

--- NFL ---
REG SEASON [194-163 +110.06u]
PLAYOFFS [8-5 +8.11u]
LAST [3-0 +9.71u]

SATURDAY JAN-14
3/2.86 Seahawks +9½ -105
3/2.86 49ers u42 -105
4/4.80 JAGUARS +120
3/2.86 CHARGERS o47 -105

SUNDAY JAN-15
5/4.63 Bills -13½ -108
4/3.54 1H-Bills -8½ -113
4/3.81 Dolphins o44 -105
3/4.05 Giants +135
2.30/2 Giants +3 -115
4.12/4 BENGALS -8 -103

MONDAY JAN-16
3/3.90 COWBOYS -3½ +130
2.30/2 COWBOYS -2½ -115
4/3.81 BUCS u45½ -105

It's been a stellar season for me, even the playoffs have been good so far. Today may be the best day of the season with the top 8 teams playing with huge stakes riding. I know the edge isn't as good now as earlier in the season, but it's most enjoyable to have decent action on the biggest games, therefore I will never back down and keep firing till the end, Let's go...

SATURDAY JAN-21

• 5/4.90 JAGUARS +9½ -102
• 1.28/5 JAGUARS +392
• 4/3.81 GIANTS +8 -105
• 4/3.81 EAGLES u48 -105
• 5/4.76 JAGUARS o53 -105

RANDOMS

PLAYOFF FAVS BETWEEN 7 & 10 POINTS ARE 5-13 27.8% ATS OVER LAST 10 YEARS(1-3 ATS L4 BUT 15-3 SU)​

PHI 6-10-1 37.5% ATS AS 7-10 POINT FAV L5 YEARS, 11-6 64.7% OVER (3-7-1 ATS L11 SINCE DEC 2017)​

-L5 YEARS WHEN 7-10 PT FAV AND TEASED 6 POINTS PHI 13-4 76.5% ON SIDE & 14-3 82.4% ON TOTAL​

KC 21-21 50% ATS AS 7-10 POINT FAV L10 YEARS, 17-23-2 42.5%% OVER (7-4 ATS L11 SICE OCT 2021)​

-L5 YEARS WHEN 7-10 PT FAV AND TEASED(FADE) 6 POINTS KC 11-31 26.2% ON SIDE & 10-31-1 24.4% ON TOTAL​

JAX 14-13 51.9% ATS AS 7-10 POINT DOG L5 YEARS, 11-15-1 42.3% OVER (4-7 ATS L11 SINCE DEC 2019)​

-L5 YEARS WHEN 7-10 PT DOG AND TEASED(FADE) 6 POINTS JAX 10-32 23.8% ON SIDE & 10-31-1 24.4% ON TOTAL​

NYG 15-11 57.7% ATS AS 7-10 POINT DOG L5 YEARS, 13-12-1 52%% OVER (6-1-1 OVER IN L11 SINCE OCT 2021)​

-L5 YEARS WHEN 7-10 PT DOG AND TEASED(FADE) 6 POINTS NYG 10-23-1 30.3% ON SIDE & 9-24-1 27.3% ON TOTAL​

HOME TEAMS(KC) 9-12 42.9% ATS IN PLAYOFFS VS TEAM THEY BEAT IN REG SEASON L5 YEARS(1-5 ATS IN L6)​

KC 9-18 33.3% ATS VS AFC LAST 2 YEARS (2-10 THIS SEASON)​

JAX 13-12 52% ATS VS AFC LAST 2 YEARS (6-2 IN L8)​

PHI 11-13-1 45.8% NTS VS AFC LAST 2 YEARS (2-5 IN L7)​

NYG 13-12 52% ATS VS NFC LAST 2 YEARS (9-4 THIS SEASON & 6-1 IN L7)​

Last 5 years when total from 45-51: PHI 14-32-2 30.4% ATS/ NYG 18-11 62.1% ATS​

• KC wins and covers teasers but not the 9½: This match-up fits the bill in a long-running series of macabre, perverse events. It’s an incestuous love affair between mentor Andy Reid and former pupil Doug Pederson. They were Packers till the end until Reid left Green Bay, where he was Pederson’s QB coach among things, to become the PHI head coach. They were Eagles till the end until Reid got fired and they skipped arm-in-arm to the Chiefs. They were Chiefs till the end until Pederson broke free and went back to the Eagles to win the Super Bowl Reid couldn’t during his own tenure there. How can we not see this as a 3-hour, mutual admiration, tight love embraces that dates back 28 years, with a possibility for a bizarre twist/moose at the end? The Jaguars despite being 0-5 in one of the most critical single-game categories in the history of single-game categories (Turnover Margin) needs to be taken seriously. Even while leading the league in points per game (29.2), yards per game (414), passing yards per game (297), and tied with the Eagles and 49ers for first in passing yards per attempt (8.1), KC enters this game yet to cover the spread at least twice in a row this season. A mere 6-10-1 ATS this year including a week 10, 27-17 win and push vs. the Jags on this field. The Jags held the Chiefs a couple of points below their avg in that loss. They got 3 turnovers like many opponents do against the perpetually sloppy Chiefs. They had opportunities, but couldn’t convert, while the Chiefs were 0-0 in penalties, lol. Pederson will arrive ready to throw the kitchen sink out and play like an underdog, which may even force Reid off his normally conservative game plan. You can’t deny how these Jags have played down the stretch…in last 7 games: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, Avg points 27.3 to 21,1, Avg Yards 358.7 to 333.1 and an avg .3 TO difference per game. KC in last 7 also 6-1 SU, but 2-4-1 ATS, Point 28 to 19.4, Yards 391.3 to 298.1 and dead even on TO. I live in J-ville and have mostly my entire 60+ year life, I was a season ticket holder for the first 16 years of the franchise and feel re-invigorated in the direction the team seems to be going lately after some very lean years. That said, I really like the Jags' chances to cover. Maybe even a small chance to win, however, I will temper my expectations, as I always limit my action on the Gators and Jags as I probably look at those through rose-colored glasses… Still I’ll back the Jags to keep it close and help get the total over. Maybe 31-28 either way…hopefully the way of the TEAL!

 

[mrpickem]

You could argue both games were mismatches yesterday and although JAX had their chances and even managed a last-second FG to cover the spread. I do believe we will see the opposite today with both games closely matched. Should be 2 great games, at least on paper. I have been preaching Bills most of the season, but I'm not so sure right now, and will definitely be on CIN with the points today. Old man Dak (oldest QB still starting this weekend) may prove shrewd enough(can't believe I said that) to put a fork in the 9ers and their rookie QB who will definitely feel the pressure today.

PLAYOFFS [10-8 +6.54u]
LAST [2-3 -1.57u]


SATURDAY
5/4.90 JAGUARS +9½ -102
1.28/5 JAGUARS +392
5/4.76 JAGUARS o53 -105
4/3.81 GIANTS +8 -105
4/3.81 EAGLES u48 -105


SUNDAY

• 5.25/5 BENGALS +6 -105
• 4/3.81 BILLS u49 -105
• 4.16/4 COWBOYS +4 -104
• 4/3.77 49ERS u47 -106

​

RANDOMS

PLAYOFF FAVS FROM 3 TO 7 POINTS ARE 18-22-1 45% ATS OVER L7 YEARS(LOST LAST 5 ATS AND 6 OF L7)

​

PLAYOFF GAMES LINED <=6 WITH TOTAL <52: HOME TEAM 8-15-1 34.8% ATS AND TOTAL 9-15 37.5% L5 YEARS​

SF 17-15 53.1% ATS AS 3-7 POINT FAV L7 YEARS, 20-12 62.5% OVER (5-2 ATS THIS YEAR & 5-1 IN L6)​

-L7 YEARS WHEN 3-7 PT FAV AND TEASED 6 POINTS SF 21-11 65.6% ON SIDE & 26-6 81.2% ON TOTAL​

DAL 14-8 63.6% ATS AS 3-7 POINT DOG L7 YEARS, 8-14 36.4% OVER (11-4 ATS L11 SINCE OCT 2018)​

-L7 YEARS WHEN 3-7 PT DOG AND TEASED 6 POINTS DAL 18-4 81.8% ON SIDE & 4-18 18.2% ON TOTAL​

BUF 16-16-2 50% ATS AS 3-7 POINT FAV L7 YEARS, 20-14 58.8% OVER (3-6-1 ATS L10 SINCE OCT 2021)​

-L7 YEARS WHEN 3-7 PT FAV AND TEASED 6 POINTS BUF 23-10 69.7% ON SIDE & 24-10 70.6% ON TOTAL​

CIN 23-12-1 65.7% ATS AS 3-7 POINT DOG L7 YEARS, 12-21-3 36.4% OVER (WON LAST 10 & 17-1-1 ATS IN L19)​

-L7 YEARS WHEN 3-7 PT DOG AND TEASED 6 POINTS CIN 28-8 77.8% ON SIDE & 8-28 22.2% ON TOTAL​

NIGHT GAMES LINES <=4 HAVE CASHED 61.8% UNDER LAST 3 YEARS AND W/TOTAL<50 UNDER IS 42-19-1 68.9%​

OVERALL ATS LAST 2 SEASONS: DAL 24-12 66.7%, SF 24-14 63.2%, BUF 18-15-3 54.5%, CIN 26-12 68.4%​

BUF, DAL & SF ARE ALL 53% UNDER WHILE CIN IS 59.5% UNDER THE TOTAL IN ALL GAMES LAST 2 YEARS​

CIN 16-4 ATS ON THE ROAD LAST 2 YEARS​

DAL 13-5 ATS ON THE ROAD LAST 2 YEARS​

SF 11-2 ATS IN CONFERENCE THIS SEASON​

 

[mrpickem]

Today's teams with 2022 stats



Last 3 years, all these teams playing today are in the top 10 ATS winners

 

[mrpickem]

REG SEASON [194-163 +110.06u]
PLAYOFFS [13-9 +14.96u]
LAST [3-1 +8.42u]

SATURDAY JAN-14
3/2.86 Seahawks +9½ -105
3/2.86 49ers u42 -105
4/4.80 JAGUARS +120
3/2.86 CHARGERS o47 -105

SUNDAY JAN-15
5/4.63 Bills -13½ -108
4/3.54 1H-Bills -8½ -113
4/3.81 Dolphins o44 -105
3/4.05 Giants +135
2.30/2 Giants +3 -115
4.12/4 BENGALS -8 -103

MONDAY JAN-16
3/3.90 COWBOYS -3½ +130
2.30/2 COWBOYS -2½ -115
4/3.81 BUCS u45½ -105

SATURDAY JAN-21
5/4.90 JAGUARS +9½ -102
1.28/5 JAGUARS +392
5/4.76 JAGUARS o53 -105
4/3.81 GIANTS +8 -105
4/3.81 EAGLES u48 -105

SUNDAY JAN-22
5.25/5 BENGALS +6 -105
4/3.81 BILLS u49 -105
4.16/4 COWBOYS +4 -104
4/3.77 49ERS u47 -106

So much for that Buffalo run :rofl:

Joey B sent them packing and I had another profitable day. Was it me, or was the 2H-CIN +7 almost like stealing? Also after seeing the first quarter in Frisco, was it not obvious points were gonna be few and far between? The books just couldn't lower the live total enough as I added some at 41½, 38½ and even 34 opcorn:
After opening KC -2½ it quickly moved to 3 most everywhere...however when news of Mahomes injury was made available...the line then quickly adjusted down near pick before settling in around 1. PHI open at 2½ as well and went to 3 before the pros pounded it and drove it back down. Looks like some fun games coming.

Here's snippets from what my books offer now Monday morning 830am

 

[bones]

She deserves her own post

 

[mrpickem]

REG SEASON [194-163 +110.06u]
PLAYOFFS [13-9 +14.96u]
LAST [3-1 +8.42u]

SUNDAY JAN 22
5.25/5 BENGALS +6 -105
4/3.81 BILLS u49 -105
4.16/4 COWBOYS +4 -104
4/3.77 49ERS u47 -106



SUNDAY JAN 29

• 5/4.39 49ERS +3 -114
• 2/2.70 49ERS +135
• 4/3.81 EAGLES u45½ -105
• 2/1.72 1H EAGLES u23 -116
• 3.15/3 CHIEFS u48 -105
• 5/4.00 RUSH YDS MCCAFFREY o57½ -125

LOOKING TO GET BENGALS TOO, BUT WAITING TO SEE IF THE LINE GETS A LITTLE BETTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, I'M THINKING MAYBE IT WILL. CIN HAS COVERED 22 OF LAST 26 GAMES, SO IT PUZZLES ME THAT JOEY.B KEEPS GETTING POINTS, BUT HONESTLY, I LOVE THIS SPOT. I'M NOT BUYING INTO ALL THE BS ABOUT HOW MAHOMES IS FULL STRENGTH AS YOU JUST CANT GET OVER A HIGH ANKLE SPRAIN THAT FAST. HE'LL DEFINITELY PLAY AND PLAY WELL, BUT EVEN MEDICATED HE WON'T BE 100%. BURROW WON A PLAYOFF GAME LAST YEAR WHILE GETTING SACKED 8 TIMES(THE ONLY TIME EVER DONE IN PLAYOFFS). HE MAY BE IN STORE FOR SOME OF THAT TODAY...BUT HE'S COOL ENOUGH TO OVERCOME IT!


RANDOMS

• PLAYOFF FAVS <=4 POINTS ARE 13-18-1 41.9% ATS OVER L7 YEARS(4-7 ATS SINCE LAST YEAR)
• PLAYOFF GAMES LINED <=6 WITH TOTAL <52: HOME TEAM 9-16-1 36% ATS AND TOTAL 9-17 34.6% L5 YEARS
• TOTAL 19-43-1 30.6% @NIGHT WHEN LINE <=4 AND TOTAL <50 IN ALL GAMES LAST 3 YEARS
• CIN @NIGHT: 13-10-1 56.5% ATS / 5-17-2 22.7% ON TOTAL SINCE 2015
• KC @NIGHT: 25-20-2 55.6% ATS / 26-18-3 59.1% ON TOTAL SINCE 2015 BUT 1-4 ATS IN L5
• SF 31-25-1 55.4% ATS w/LINE <=4 L7 YEARS, 26-31-1 45.6% ON TOTAL (5-2 ATS THIS YEAR & 5-1 IN L6)
• -L7 YEARS w/LINE <=4 AND TEASED 6 POINTS SF 38-19 66.7% ON SIDE & 14-43 24.6% ON TOTAL
• PHI 25-30-1 45.5% ATS w/LINE <=4 L7 YEARS, 29-26-1 52.7% ON TOTAL (6-13 ATS IN L19 BACK TO JAN 2020)
• -L7 YEARS w/LINE <=4 AND TEASED 6 POINTS PHI 39-16-1 70.9% ON SIDE & 13-42 23.6% ON TOTAL
• KC 26-22-2 54.2% ATS w/LINE <=4 L7 YEARS, 25-23-2 52.1% ON TOTAL (2-3 ATS THIS YEAR)
• -L7 YEARS w/LINE <=4 AND TEASED 6 POINTS KC 38-12 76% ON SIDE & 35-15 70% ON TOTAL
• CIN 33-24-3 57.9% ATS w/LINE <=4 L7 YEARS, 24-33-3 42.1% ON TOTAL (WON LAST 6 & 12-1 ATS IN L13)
• -L7 YEARS w/LINE <=4 AND TEASED 6 POINTS CIN 46-13-1 78% ON SIDE & 18-42 30% ON TOTAL
• OVERALL ATS LAST 2 SEASONS: DAL 24-12 66.7%, SF 24-14 63.2%, BUF 18-15-3 54.5%, CIN 26-12 68.4%
• CIN 17-4 ATS ON THE ROAD LAST 2 YEARS
• SF 12-2 ATS IN CONFERENCE THIS SEASON
• SF 11-4 ATS ON GRASS THIS SEASON
• SF has activated RB Tevin Coleman which makes me think Mitchell may miss the game injured. That has to mean more carries for McCaffrey. SF normally limits using McCaffrey as much as a runner to avoid wearing him down, but at this point, there's no tomorrow without a win and they would get a week off before the Super Bowl. Plus with the PHI pass rush a potential problem for Purdy, if they get Mac going it may slow down the rush so much

 

[mrpickem]

IN THE PLAYOFFS SINCE 2017: DOGS 38-28-2 58.2% ATS AND TOTAL 29-40 42% (DOGS HAVE CASHED 12 OF LAST 17)

 

[mrpickem]

locked in

• 5/4.76 Bengals +2 -105

Got half a point by waiting

 

[mrpickem]

It's been a memorable season for me as I've been red hot since thanksgiving and my best season overall in the past 6. The smart move would be throw a couple of units at the dog and call it a day, keeping my profits. But I'm in this game for entertainment more than anything, so I'll throw out more plays than I should, but will have loads of fun in doing so!

--- NFL ---
WEEK 1 [11-7 +7.79U]

WEEK 3 [8-10-1 -5.17u]
WEEK 4 [8-10 -12.61u]
WEEK 5 [10-6 +14.60u]
WEEK 6 [11-12 -0.57u]
WEEK 7 [7-10 -8.77u]
WEEK 8 [7-6 +2.71u]
WEEK 9 [7-7-2 +3.35u]
WEEK 10 [9-10 -11.04u]
WEEK 11 [10-9-1 +4.68u]
WEEK 12 [12-15 -14.76u]
WEEK 13 [14-11 +12.32u]
WEEK 14 [11-10 +5.50u]
WEEK 15 [11-7 +17.27u]
WEEK 16 [18-7 +41.35u]
WEEK 17 [16-6 +37.49u]
WEEK 18 [14-8 +16.11u]
------------------------
REG SEASON [194-163 +110.06u] :breakdance:
PLAYOFFS [16-13 +11.77u]
LAST [3-4 -3.19u]

SATURDAY JAN 14
3/2.86 Seahawks +9½ -105
3/2.86 49ers u42 -105
4/4.80 JAGUARS +120
3/2.86 CHARGERS o47 -105

SUNDAY JAN 15
5/4.63 Bills -13½ -108
4/3.54 1H-Bills -8½ -113
4/3.81 Dolphins o44 -105
3/4.05 Giants +135
2.30/2 Giants +3 -115
4.12/4 BENGALS -8 -103

MONDAY JAN 16
3/3.90 COWBOYS -3½ +130
2.30/2 COWBOYS -2½ -115
4/3.81 BUCS u45½ -105

SATURDAY JAN 21
5/4.90 JAGUARS +9½ -102
1.28/5 JAGUARS +392
5/4.76 JAGUARS o53 -105
4/3.81 GIANTS +8 -105
4/3.81 EAGLES u48 -105

SUNDAY JAN 22
5.25/5 BENGALS +6 -105
4/3.81 BILLS u49 -105
4.16/4 COWBOYS +4 -104
4/3.77 49ERS u47 -106

SUNDAY JAN 29
5/4.39 49ERS +3 -114
2/2.70 49ers +135
4/3.81 EAGLES u45½ -105
2/1.72 1H EAGLES u23 -116
3.15/3 CHIEFS u48 -105
5/4.00 Rush Yards Mccaffrey o57½ -125
5/4.76 Bengals +2 -105

SUPER SUNDAY FEB 12, 2023

• 5.20/5 CHIEFS +1 -104
• 5/4.85 EAGLES u51 -103
• 3/2.61 1H-CHIEFS u24½ -115
• 3.60/3 2 TEAM TEASER TIES LOSE - EAGLES u57½ / CHIEFS +7½ (B+6½)
• 3/1.76 KC/PHI SHORTEST TD u1½ -170
• 4/1.90 MAHOMES TD PASSES TOTAL o1½ -210
• 10/11 Travis Kelce/Receptions u7½ +110 (FREE $$$/WHY NOT)
• 10/11.2 T.Kelce receptions Total o7½ +112

​

​

LIKELY THIS GAME COMES DOWN TO TURNOVER, IF THE CHIEFS TAKE CARE OF THE BALL I DON'T SEE PHI KEEPING UP

RANDOMS

• DOG IS 14-6-1 IN LAST 21 SUPER BOWL
• PHI 10-21-1 32.3% ATS W/TOTAL IS 45-55 LAST 3 YEARS (4-10 LAST 14 MONTHS)
• KC ONLY 2-7 ATS IN L9 GAMES WITH 9 OR MORE DAYS REST
• THE LAST 7 PLAYOFF GAMES HAVE STAYED UNDER THE TOTAL (15-23 39.5% ON TOTAL LAST 3 YEARS)
• PLAYOFF FAVS THAT WON BY AT LEAST 14 @HOME LAST GAME ARE 15-9 62.5% ATS LAST 7
• KC 12-4 ATS & SU IN GAMES LINED AT 3 OR LESS LAST 3 YEARS
• PLAYOFF GAMES LINED <=4 POINTS W/TOTAL >42 HAVE ONLY WENT OVER 36.7% (11-19) L7 YEARS(LAST 4 UNDER)
• PHI 26-30-1 46.4% ATS w/LINE <=4 L7 YEARS, 29-27-1 51.8% ON TOTAL (6-4 ATS IN L10)
• -L7 YEARS w/LINE <=4 AND TEASED 6 POINTS PHI 40-16-1 71.4% ON SIDE & 13-43 23.2% ON TOTAL
• KC 27-22-2 55.1% ATS w/LINE <=4 L7 YEARS, 25-24-2 51% ON TOTAL (7-4 ATS IN L11)
• -L7 YEARS w/LINE <=4 AND TEASED 6 POINTS KC 39-12 76.5% ON SIDE & 36-15 70.6% ON TOTAL
• REID WILL BE COACHING HIS 38TH PLAYOFF GAME(4TH SB) WHILE SIRIANI IS COACHING HIS 4TH
• Chiefs are in the Super Bowl third time in four seasons. They've won 7 straight entering this game. This is the first time KC has been a dog in the playoffs since 2015. That ends an NFL-record streak of 15 straight playoff games as chalk. KC star QB Patrick Mahomes leads the #1 offense in yards per game and points per game. Their offense is a little banged, although Mahomes played well vs CIN and now has two more weeks of rest. Multiple WR’s were injured vs Cincinnati. The latest report has WR Hardman listed as doubtful while Smith-Schuster and Toney are questionable. I would think they will all play some. On D, KC was #2 in sacks and #11 in total D.
• Eagles make their first Super Bowl since 2017. They did benefit from one of the weaker schedules this season but did dominate statistically. Offensively they were #3 in total yards per game and points per game. On defense, #3 in yards allowed. Their D got an incredible 70 sacks this season (15 more than any other team). They have a deep roster led by QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown and the best OL/DL combo in the NFL.