2023 Futures Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I liked Notre Dame at 1800 and like them a lot more at 3300. I'll wait around a while and see if it goes up even more
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I was hoping Vegas was writing us off like David Pollack and the rest of sports media today so I could get better odds
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Would be hard to believe it wasn't worth a small bet unless people just hate their QBs
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don't see how anyone can hate them more or less than the other teams replacing multi-year starters. They're all highly recruited and you never know what you're gonna get until they are the man. The Hurts-Tua-Mac-Bryce run makes me think we'll be ok at QB
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
I think it's hilarious how Bama thinks they were so great this year and whoever is at quarterback won't be as good as Bryce Young. I get that they've been top dog but every cycle ends at some point. Not saying the Gumps will be bad, they'll be plenty good but they're generously lined here no matter how much their midget coach begs like a homeless man on the side of the highway exit.
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
Georgia is the clear bet as boring as it is to pick a repeat champion. Looking at their schedule, only two games really jump out as possible losses. South Carolina improved a lot by the end of the year but UGA plays them at home. Tennessee lost some pieces but will be good. Florida and Auburn are a mess. It's just hard to see a scenario where Georgia loses more than one game if that. On reputation alone that'll get them the no.1 ranking and a favorable slate in the playoff.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
It’s gotta falter at some point. It’s just GOT to!
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Schedule is an abomination. I know they had Oklahoma but Jeez
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
LSU has to be worth a look.
All I look for in these is a chance to get to semis. Possible in-game hedge there.
I took Georgia Sept 19th at a ridiculous # but I knew they would be in semis and likely finals. You can wait in season on the big dogs.
EFC1878
Pretty much a regular
I generally stay away from natty futures but I will definitely be looking to pounce early on Washington and FSU for conference futures unless the market has both higher than I expect. It’s possible the Noles are ACC chalk - I think they should be - but if Clemson still opens as top choice I’ll be on FSU.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think they'll be better than this year, but that schedule is no cakewalk. Open with FSU in what is a pivotal game for the ACC and it's CFP aspirations. They go to Tuscaloosa this year. Away games at Miss St, Ole Miss and Mizzou seem pretty manageable, but are all in a tough stretch that includes games against Arky and AU
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
Clemson has lower odds for the NC so in all likelihood they'll be favored for the ACC. The Clemson brand will have significant weight in ACC futures until they lose it. If I had to guess, it's probably Clemson +140, FSU+200. FSU is probably a very good bet for the ACC.
Some smoke CJ Stroud might be coming back. Would be crazy if he does. Took about 5-6 teams the day these came out at some pretty dumb numbers. Couldn't believe Bama was +800, don't give a shit who the QB is, he'll be great by the end of September. Hardest games are at home. They'll be good.
GoDawgs1980
Pretty much a regular
Unless you are planning on hedging, there really are only a handful of schools that have a chance every year to win a title.
Yeah, it can be very easy to get carried away with these. Realistically, you're right. Until we go to the 12 team format.
GoDawgs1980
Pretty much a regular
Think the 12 team differentiates even more. Lets say a Tulane plays in round 1 and upsets USC, they then have to go on the road in the second round and beat a rested UGA or Michigan at home. The better teams with more depth will cruise through this.
Fwiw, took PSU right away at 3300
Next day, took ND right away as it moved way up, also at 3300.
Michigan number that was inflated, was worth it then with all these guys coming back. I'd wait on them now.
Georgia number is where it should be. With schedule, I don't see that number changing. You won't get the September or early October discount.
Ohio State number should be higher. That's a name, respect thing.
FSU, if only a defense. Have to cap that more.
USC kept Grinch, so no thanks.
Oregon and Washington value is good. You only play this though if you see 1 loss or less so they actually can get into playoff. Very iffy with west coast bias+history.
Next day, took ND right away as it moved way up, also at 3300.
Michigan number that was inflated, was worth it then with all these guys coming back. I'd wait on them now.
Georgia number is where it should be. With schedule, I don't see that number changing. You won't get the September or early October discount.
Ohio State number should be higher. That's a name, respect thing.
FSU, if only a defense. Have to cap that more.
USC kept Grinch, so no thanks.
Oregon and Washington value is good. You only play this though if you see 1 loss or less so they actually can get into playoff. Very iffy with west coast bias+history.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
The 1st 3-5 years you 100% right, it be even easier for the same 3-4 teams we know are only ones with realistic chance of winning cause they don’t even have to deal with the pressure of the regular season, they will have bigger margin for error and still be the clearly superior team in this format. Pretty much 0 chance anyone other than the usual suspects wins any the early ones.
Long term I think the idea is it will eventually allow 15-20 teams a realistic opportunity as once they have on their resume you can go there and be in the playoffs with the exposure and w a chance to win every year that would ideally spread the talent out a bit more, at least to the extent those certain 3-4 hogging all the talent who’s second and 3rd string could beat most the teams wouldn’t be as deep cause the kids sitting would rather go to one the other places and start sooner,. Obviously if that works it just creates a bit the parity we see in other sports:, my guess there enough talent to make 10-20 teams somewhat on level ground eventually with the same 3-4 not being 3 deep across the board. That of course weakens the best teams and would probably increase the probability not just having the usual suspects pool deeper but there could be random years you get a oddball unexpected team that could win it.
Whether it works that way I dunno but think that what likely to happen longer term but obviously it take a bit of time till the gap narrows.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don’t know a single Alabama fan that thinks we were great this year, or that the next QB will be better than Bryce. In fact, most of our fans act like the season was a disaster. True, it was easily our worst team since 2007, but if top 5 is the floor, then I don’t think it’s unreasonable to trust that the greatest coach of all time with the most talented roster in the country is a national title contender
TodaysWinners
The Sun Shines More Brightly in Florida
As much as I love my Florida teams, I would not make/take a ticket on FSU. While they are improved, they don't have the quality depth yet to complete with the Georgia's, Alabama's or Ohio State's this season. The Noles are, in general, two deep but the lines are not top notch yet, better if they get through the season but still not good enough. They should be competitive/very competitive in the ACC this season and anything short of a New Years Day/Six Bowl Game will be looked as a failure and/or a step backwards.
