2022 World Cup

guaranteeed

guaranteeed

Pretty much a regular
Golden Boot

Kane +800
Messi +1200
Depay +2500
Richarlison +3300

Theres basically 3 world class out and out strikers in the world cup. Kane, Benzema, and Lewendowski. The latter isnt on a good enough team to go far imo, Benzema shares the spoils with Mbappe and potentially Griezmann too. Kane leads the line, will play every minute hes fit, and takes the pens. He has 51 goals in 75 england games. Plus he has a cupcake group in terms of defenders hes going against.

Messi has a real chance to go far in the tournament, and with the system they play he gets a free role. Hes more of a creator than their outright focal point now.

Depay is the Dutch talisman up front, he has 22 goals in 21 games the last 2 years, he plays for a team which finished with the 3rd most goals in qualifying after England and Germany, Depay himself tied Kane for most goals in qualifying at 12, and had the most shots, he outperformed his xG as well. He hasnt played much with Barca this season, the only reason I can see this price being so high, I'd take it much lower, from pure value this is the best bet imo.

Richarlison is a bit of a flier based on the recent brazil teams and his spot as the number 9. He has 11 goals in his last 17 games for Brazil, and with him as the 9 it allows Neymar to play in the center behind him and be the creator, which Tite has favored in the last few windows. Neymar is still more likely to be their leading scorer, but his price is 3x lower and imo overvalued. There is also a chance they do play with an extra midfielder, and then the two attacking options to be sacrificed would be vinicius jr or Richarlison, which is why the price is what it is. If he starts though, and lately he has, value is good.
 
Benzema injury takes a little and gives a little, he adds so much for france that their chances of going deep drop, but if they do mbappe probably bags a bunch

Richarlison odds dropped big time, only at +2200 now, messi and kane have moved our way a bit as well
 
Good start with qatar not scoring and looking at all likely

November 21 games

England -1.25 -115
Netherlands -160
Wales/USA o2 -115
 
we've been going h2h on all these totals (and Netherlands), i'm not loving the stoppage time so far but still don't believe in the offenses anywhere
 
love the depay pick, but he's gonna need to start and it sounds like he's not healthy? If not, that's a big problem for NED who i was pretty confident in pre-tournament
 
GWarner27 said:
love the depay pick, but he's gonna need to start and it sounds like he's not healthy? If not, that's a big problem for NED who i was pretty confident in pre-tournament
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Ya I think he starts going forward, they said he was healthy pre tournament, but playing so little this year so far, I can see why they didnt for game 1, need him to start the qatar game at least and then KOs, if he can get to 2 in next 2 games I'd be happy
 
GWarner27 said:
we've been going h2h on all these totals (and Netherlands), i'm not loving the stoppage time so far but still don't believe in the offenses anywhere
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I read it's an actual directive from the head ref at fifa, they are trialing a new way of counting stoppages, and 10 min extra times were to be expected
 
GWarner27 said:
cost me half a bet on the Senegal match, surely won't be the only one
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Seems strange to trial something in literally the premier event, but its fifa

It seems like its gonna be a factor for sure, heat already causing fatigue and an extra day 5+ mins than normal at the end, think late goals become story soon
 
2-2-1 -0.2

Morocco +0.5 -120
Germany/Japan btts -120
Spain/CR u3 -130
Belgium/canada o2.5 -150

Last one is chalky but I do think these two are the others worst possible matchup defensively. Canadas biggest weakness is their back 4, they can be opened up horizontally or vertically, even if they park the bus, kdb is last guy you want to see with the ball looking for an opening.

On flip side, this Belgian back line peaked probably 5 years ago, they are extremely slow now. They are likely going to be on their own most of the time as the belgian attack should have a large possession advantage. When canada breaks though, they are at their best, davies and david will be the fastest players on the pitch and throughout qualifying they have shown they only need a few chances to cause major damage.

Lukaku is out, not a loss on his form the last 12 months, so no real worry
 
guaranteeed said:
2-2-1 -0.2

Morocco +0.5 -120
Germany/Japan btts -120
Spain/CR u3 -130
Belgium/canada o2.5 -150

Last one is chalky but I do think these two are the others worst possible matchup defensively. Canadas biggest weakness is their back 4, they can be opened up horizontally or vertically, even if they park the bus, kdb is last guy you want to see with the ball looking for an opening.

On flip side, this Belgian back line peaked probably 5 years ago, they are extremely slow now. They are likely going to be on their own most of the time as the belgian attack should have a large possession advantage. When canada breaks though, they are at their best, davies and david will be the fastest players on the pitch and throughout qualifying they have shown they only need a few chances to cause major damage.

Lukaku is out, not a loss on his form the last 12 months, so no real worry
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Good info.
 
4-4-1 -1

Richarlison now golden boot favorite at +500 so that is best performing of those bets at the moment

For black friday

Wales +110
Netherlands -138
England -1 -110
 
i'm so tempted by CRC but think i'm gonna wuss out and just go under. The climb in the line after MD1 is insane

I want to sell Belgium, but not sure Morocco did anything to deserve more respect just by not seeing a goal vs Croats

is Canada not parking the bus anymore? Or was that just because they wanted to run vs the Belgium backline? It worked for xG, but not for the one that counts which is exactly what makes me think they revert to CONCACAF bus parking strategy

where do you see the goals in ESP/GER? I worry GER is going to see a Japan win and have to go all out to win, which hurts my lean to them and the under
 
GWarner27 said:
i'm so tempted by CRC but think i'm gonna wuss out and just go under. The climb in the line after MD1 is insane

I want to sell Belgium, but not sure Morocco did anything to deserve more respect just by not seeing a goal vs Croats

is Canada not parking the bus anymore? Or was that just because they wanted to run vs the Belgium backline? It worked for xG, but not for the one that counts which is exactly what makes me think they revert to CONCACAF bus parking strategy

where do you see the goals in ESP/GER? I worry GER is going to see a Japan win and have to go all out to win, which hurts my lean to them and the under
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Ya cr is just a crazy line, just see then shutting up shop and try go go at them on counter, think japan style works better in games vs better teams, like 1.5 a lot better but too juicy for me

Belgium just a bad matchup for Morocco think KDB and hazard can pass around their midfield, will get more possession, morocco only had 35 percent vs croatia and less risk of morocco running at them outside. Morocco held croatia to only 2 shots on goal, I think belgium has better creators, and with that much time on ball should get through a few times. Line is also an overreaction to Canada game, which was just a bad matchup for them

I dont think they park the bus, but I expect they are less aggressive on press than vs belgium. Still see them getting chances on counter and through the wings. Gvardiol is great but rest of the back 4 is suspect. They will play similar I expect to how they played mexico in qualifying, both games had chance either side and both teams scored in each game.

I think both teams score, germany needs a win even a japan draw could mean if spain/japan draw md3 they could go out if they dont beat spain. So expect a back and forth, both teams better talent is in midfield and up front.
 
Not good today, Cameroon was definitely priced wrong, but should have taken the asian line, got greedy with ML

8-14-1 -8.19

So final games of group tomorrow

Group A has ecuador at 4, Netherlands at 4, senegal at 3

Ecuador only needs a draw to keep Senegal out, senegal has to push for a win
Netherlands want goals, first tie breaker is goals scored, they have an easy opponent on paper in qatar, but I think they will go all out to score to make sure ecuador dont catch them

Its the difference between likely playing England if you finish 2nd, and the US or Iran if you finish 1st

Bit different in other groups games, US needs a win vs Iran, Iran is playing for a draw. Wales need a win as well, England are through with a draw and probably win group with it, wales forced to open up I expect get crushed on counter by england

Netherlands -2 +105
Ecuador/Senegak o2 -115
USA +100
England-1 -130
 
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guaranteeed said:
Not good today, Cameroon was definitely priced wrong, but should have taken the asian line, got greedy with ML

8-14-1 -8.19

So final games of group tomorrow

Group A has ecuador at 4, Netherlands at 4, senegal at 3

Ecuador only needs a draw to keep Senegal out, senegal has to push for a win
Netherlands want goals, first tie breaker is goals scored, they have an easy opponent on paper in qatar, but I think they will go all out to score to make sure ecuador dont catch them

Its the difference between likely playing England if you finish 2nd, and the US or Iran if you finish 1st

Bit different in other groups games, US needs a win vs Iran, Iran is playing for a draw. Wales need a win as well, England are through with a draw and probably win group with it, wales forced to open up I expect get crushed on counter by england

Netherlands -2 +105
Ecuador/Senegak o2 -115
USA +100
England-1 -130
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Like over in the Ecuador game, think Senegal have to play open and all that does is set the stage

Dutch and three lions are no brainers in my book. Have a day!
 
KJ said:
Like over in the Ecuador game, think Senegal have to play open and all that does is set the stage

Dutch and three lions are no brainers in my book. Have a day!
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Ya, all 4 games tomorrow its kinda worked out that one or two of teams need a win. So fingers crossed we see some goals, hopefully dutch break out
 
Ya, just none of the creativity attacking they've shown last 16 months

12-16-2 -7.19

Canada/Morocco btts -106
Japan/Spain o2.5 -115

Kinda think belgium wins, but they have lost any trust to bet
 
how does that happen? It's not like they haven't seen a low block before and the Tuni/Aussie defenses aren't exactly capable

i think CRO locks BEL up
 
Aussie defense was really good from what I saw, didnt drop too deep, but part of that was just through toothless Dane attack, aussies have allowed most xg in tournament so far, and Denmark only managed 0.63xg
 
that was easy, i'm not sure i believe in POR offense tomorrow in a road game despite how impressive they were against a good SUI defense
 
GWarner27 said:
that was easy, i'm not sure i believe in POR offense tomorrow in a road game despite how impressive they were against a good SUI defense
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Ya, morocco have been so good defensively this tournament I think this one is a slog

Penalties after 0 goals wouldnt be a shock
 
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