2022 CFB Plays to Fade

counselor

counselor

President of Fondy Fanclub
I can’t believe I allowed myself to get dragged into this world again. All bets for 1 unit placed at -110 unless otherwise noted. Not a lot of B1G games I really like this week. I’ll try to give my take on the MINN-PSU game, but at this point it’s nothing more than my gut feel. I haven’t pulled the trigger on anything, but I’m sure I will by Saturday. I’m trying be a little more analytical with my wagers, but I’m not sure I’m disciplined enough. I also said I was going to limit the number of wagers, but I’m now certain I’m not disciplined enough to do that, as evidenced below.

B1G
-Lean MINN +5 (but obviously can’t get it anymore. +4 may still be a play for me)
-Lean MINN-PSU U44.5 (waiting for a move north. If it stays, I’ll likely play, if it goes down, I’m likely out)
-Lean IND-RUTG U47.5 (again, waiting to see if It moves. Likely game time decision)
-Lean NW-MD O51

Others:
SMU +3.5
CIN-SMU U58.5
VAN +14
ECU +5
VIR +3 (-105)
ADD 10/20 7:45 p.m.:
Clemson -13.5
Syracuse-Clemson U49.5
ADD 12/21 8:20 p.m.:
Minn +5.5 (-115)
Iowa +30
ADD 10/22 3:00 p.m.:
PSU ML (-210) (those of you that know me know why)
ADD 5:30 p.m.:
UCF-ECU U63.5

TTU and SC will be Saturday kick-off decisions.


Other leans:
TTU -6.5 (missed -3.5 due to internet issues, but I still may play at anything under 7) (correction 10/20 7:06 p.m.: missed -4.5, not -3.5).
UCF-ECU O63.5
UNM +10.5
Rice-LT O57.5
FIU-CHAR U63.5
SC +3
PITT-LOU O55

Strong leans (likely plays):
CLEM -13.5
Syracuse-Clemson U50
Miss-LSU O68

I’ll update as I place to keep track. BOL, gents.
 
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8-3 +4.65u. UVA was a nice start. Fortuitous Sims left early with an injury, because I felt like he was going to be able to make some plays. Was somewhat fortunate in the SMU game that they drove the length of the field (8O+ yards) to score and bring it within the number, but then missed the 2-pt conversion to tie. OT could have been disastrous. In hindsight, the Clemson game didn’t really make sense, but I liked the spot and the number. Iowa’s defense is good, but I should have considered they’d be competing against next-level talent before making that play. There were better games out there for me. Really disappointed the Gophers didn’t make a better game out of it. I really thought they would. That team has some serious issues, and it’s way deeper than just losing Morgan. There were much, much higher expectations for Fleck in year 6, and he has not delivered. I hope he’s signed his last extension until he’s proven something on the field. 2019 was a long time ago.
 
Week 9. I can’t believe this season is a month from being over. So depressing. Somewhat regretting my Thursday night pick, now, but it’s in and I’m going to let it ride. I have others for the weekend but haven’t been able to pull the trigger, yet. Waiting for a few things to clear up.

10/27
VT +13.5
ADD 10/27 5:10 p.m.
USM +2.5
ULL-USM Over 43


EDIT 10/28 6:45 p.m.:

I'm not playing it, but gun-to-my head, I lean heavy to ECU +3 and FIU +6 tonight. Obviously, I did not get the open number on the latter, and it dropped 3 points. If it would have come back a little I would have played it (probably at anything +7). I do believe both teams have a better-than-average chance to win SU, but I'm hoping there's better games to play this weekend.

Edit 10/29 9:55 a.m.:
I think Rutgers +14 is a really good play this week. I just don’t have the heart to bet against my team…yet. That said, I did put a small amount on the +425 as my “emotional hedge bet”.


ADD 10/29 2:36 a.m.
WVU 7.5 (-120) This one hurt. Fuck tcu and the wvu defense
USF +17.5
AUB +3 (I feel the ML +145 is a good play, too)
ILL-NEB O50 (woof. Can’t buy a break)
MIZZ +4 (-120)
MSU-MICH U55
ADD 10/29 1:55 p.m.:
LOU +3
KSU +1.5
TEM +14.5
TA&M +2.5 (I can’t even)

Leans:
ND ML (EVEN) (Unlikely I'll pull the trigger)
ND-SYR O47.5
NEB +7.5
WF-LOU U65
TA&M +2.5
Add leans 10/29 9:20 a.m.:
Louisville +3
KSU +1,5 (don’t necessarily like going against Gundy’s cover record)


BOL, fellas
 
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My deepest sympathies to whomever bet VT ML +400 (I had considered a small bet, but chose against it because I didn’t like the line movements (or lack thereof), and had their hearts torn out in the end. A friend of mine took them, USM ML, Wazzu +7.5 and the under in a 4-teamer that would have brought him home a nice chunk. Brutal.
 
counselor said:
My deepest sympathies to whomever bet VT ML +400 (I had considered a small bet, but chose against it because I didn’t like the line movements (or lack thereof), and had their hearts torn out in the end. A friend of mine took them, USM ML, Wazzu +7.5 and the under in a 4-teamer that would have brought him home a nice chunk. Brutal.
Click to expand...
It’s funny because I had it in my queue for a hundred but didn’t hit the submit button and then I was so mad at myself as I watched the third quarter as I was thinking I blew a shot at making 415 (it was +415 at the time I think) and of course at the end I was like whew good call haha.
 
carolinablue said:
It’s funny because I had it in my queue for a hundred but didn’t hit the submit button and then I was so mad at myself as I watched the third quarter as I was thinking I blew a shot at making 415 (it was +415 at the time I think) and of course at the end I was like whew good call haha.
Click to expand...
Same. My pal was soooo jacked until…
 
Can’t even begin to explain how disappointed I am in myself that I chose these plays over some others I had in the queue but decided not to even consider them after last night. Really, really poor decisions.
 
8-4, +3.5u. Got some luck on a couple and didn’t on a couple others. I’ll take it, but I need to stop playing on so many (12 is WAY too many) and make better choices on which ones to go on.
 
counselor said:
8-4, +3.5u. Got some luck on a couple and didn’t on a couple others. I’ll take it, but I need to stop playing on so many (12 is WAY too many) and make better choices on which ones to go on.
Click to expand...
Nothing wrong with that week.
 
Thanks, bud. No, you’re correct. Good day. It’s just too many games. There were some other games out there that had better value, but I ignored the signals, too.
 
16-7, +8.16u

Week 10. I’m hoping the numbers for a few of these conference games shake out like I think they should.

AFA-Army U40 (2 units) (Amazed this cashed, tbh)
UAB +2 (1.5 units)

I play the under on these academy games religiously. Unfortunately, I fell asleep and missed the opening line, and it got pounded down immediately. I might wait to see if it’ll come back up and put a little more on it. 40 is about the cut-off for me to be comfortable betting it.

Hopefully I can stay disciplined enough and have no more than 2-3 additional games.

ADD 11/5 10:49. a.m.:
FLA +2.5
ADD 11/5 10:56 a.m.:
CHAR +15
TTU +9
ADD 11/4 9:02 p.m.:
IND +13.5
ADD 11/4 9:16 p.m.:
KU -1 (Decided to play it and may play more if it comes back to EV or +)
ADD 11/4 9:28 p.m.:
TLSA +7
ADD 11/5 12:44 p.m.:
CHAR +3.5 (2H) (.5u) (I just won't learn)
ADD 11/5 2:00 p.m.:
UNM +14.5
ADD 11/5/22:
PSU-IND U50
TENN-UGA U65
ADD 11/5 2:23 p.m.:
TROY-ULL U41.5
ADD 11/5 5:32 p.m.:
TEX -3
ADD 11/5 5:58 p.m.:
Parlay (.5 u at +260)
LSU +12
RUTG +26
ADD 11/5 6:12 p.m.:
RUTG +26 (2 units)
JMU +6.5 (LOL!!!)
ADD 11/5 7:32 p.m.:
BSU -4 (2H) (.5u) (That motherfucker was out of bounds. Those officials fucked the pooch)
ADD 11/5 7:37 p.m.: (I'm loaded)
BSU -3.5 (2H) (1u)
ADD 11/5 7:52 p.m.:
CLEM -3.5 (2H) (.5u)
ADD 11/5 7:59 p.m.:
CLEM -3.5 (even) (2H) (.5u)

Leans:
TTU +8
UVA +7 (I'm already on the other side of CB of a different game, so not sure it's a good move)
TLSA +7 (strong lean)
CHAR +15.5 (strong lean)
KU EV or +
UNM +14.5
UGA -8 (unusual play for me)
TEX -2.5 (another unusual play for me)
JMU +7 (wish I would have just gone with my gut and played it earlier)
MD-WISC O48.5

BOL, fellas.
 
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Welp, I'm doing it again. Playing WAY too many games...I'm absolutely hating my UAB pick. CHAR was a bonehead pick, and now TTU is absolutely shitting the bed. The only chance I have is for TTU to somehow turn the ball over and get a late score, because I know that fuckstick Dykes is going to continue to try to score. I feel like I'll be lucky to get out of this day with any money left.
 
JHC. Line moved to UGA -10 and I didn't like the value. Waited too long. Decided to play the total instead of putting more on KU because the line moved against me. Now TENN D looks like it can't stop a kiddy parade, SEC teams seem incapable of maintaining comfortable leads, so you know UGA will give up some yards/pts. to this offense, especially 2H. Not at all how I saw this game playing out, especially early on, so this fucking under is in serious jeopardy, if its not toast already.

I put way too much stock in UAB's defense, especially their secondary. They're struggling. My only hope here is UAB's D can limit a few of these UTSA possessions to FG's and the O can keep pace and score some TD's. Damn, I really hate this f'ing play. Loved it earlier in the week, but my gut was regretting it already yesterday morning.
 
There appears to be few ways both the IND and total cover at this point, either. PSU O is finding their legs and picking up big chunks on the ground. IND got a key TO on PSU half of the field early, but couldn't block up a 3rd and long and took a sack to knock them out of fg range. Got a great ST play on the punt, but then couldn't keep the field flipped. I need to quit this habit. Fucking stupid. Best thing I can do is quit watching, quit betting, and go get druuuuuuunk.
 
Aaaaand now the PSU squirrel is kicking career long 50 yarders in 20+ mph swirling winds. FML
 
Record is a few to a lot more and down a pot. I’ll have to update later.

I’m playing fewer games at higher amounts and some 1H’s. Period. That’s it. Won’t have a ton of time today with work and my side hustle, so wanted to post early. You could probably wait to fade and get a better number the way shit has been going:

BUFF +0.5 (1H)
BUFF +1.5 (5u)

BOL, fellas.
 
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