2021 NFL SUPER BOWL LV

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
YTD Record
103-64
+135.83u


Thought I'd start a new thread for this game as I will have some thoughts as the weeks go on. Much cleaner. No picks until probably week of, most likely a few days before, and it will go in this first box. Feel free to chime in.
 
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Just gonna start fuckin ramblin away....

First pops in my head last night..

How the fuck do you fade Mahomes or Brady at home?

Who the fuck covers Tyreek Hill? 13/189 last game.

Is Fisher out a huge deal? How is KC depth on oline? Does it even matter, the way Mahomes scrambles?

Will AB play for sure and be 100%?

Will Sammy Watkins play at all? My goodness, just stacked at every position on offense.

Who catches COVID-19?

Who will run the ball better?

Can KC d generate pressure like they did last game or will they be like most games this year, and not do it?

Brady rarely gets sacked.

BUCS D line is excellent, as well as LBers with White....they generate pressure...but Rogers, Brees can't move like Patty.

Arians isn't a bad coach imo.

Can Brady keep up in a shootout? look at 2018 NE/KC game, maybe 2019...he did.
 
This year KC had a pretty comfortable lead before Brady brought them to within 3 late. The Thanksgiving weekened game would be interesting to dissect.
 
wiseplayer said:
This year KC had a pretty comfortable lead before Brady brought them to within 3 late. The Thanksgiving weekened game would be interesting to dissect.
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Yeah, I agree...even though it was 2 months ago...Reek tore them apart. Not sure if anyone can stop him..it's not like Darrell Green just came out of the sky for this one.
 
First thought....KC will win! Then, I started thinking...I always jump on a team and think it’s impossible for that team(being KC) can’t lose!....I’ll wait and see where this line goes....Tom Brady is destined to win! I don’t see it but I think he somehow pulls it out..‍♂️
 
txtennisboy said:
First thought....KC will win! Then, I started thinking...I always jump on a team and think it’s impossible for that team(being KC) can’t lose!....I’ll wait and see where this line goes....Tom Brady is destined to win! I don’t see it but I think he somehow pulls it out..‍♂️
Click to expand...


Yeah man. I'm same way. Get the itch to go big right away. Hard not to. Lot of things can happen these next few weeks. Gl bro.
 
HUNT said:
YTD Record
103-64
+135.83u


Thought I'd start a new thread for this game as I will have some thoughts as the weeks go on. Much cleaner. No picks until probably week of, most likely a few days before, and it will go in this first box. Feel free to chime in.
Click to expand...

great record pal.
 
HUNT said:
Just gonna start fuckin ramblin away....

First pops in my head last night..

How the fuck do you fade Mahomes or Brady at home?

Who the fuck covers Tyreek Hill? 13/189 last game.

Is Fisher out a huge deal? How is KC depth on oline? Does it even matter, the way Mahomes scrambles?

Will AB play for sure and be 100%?

Will Sammy Watkins play at all? My goodness, just stacked at every position on offense.

Who catches COVID-19?

Who will run the ball better?

Can KC d generate pressure like they did last game or will they be like most games this year, and not do it?

Brady rarely gets sacked.

BUCS D line is excellent, as well as LBers with White....they generate pressure...but Rogers, Brees can't move like Patty.

Arians isn't a bad coach imo.

Can Brady keep up in a shootout? look at 2018 NE/KC game, maybe 2019...he did.
Click to expand...

cheetah had 200 yards in 1st qrtr last time they played! So think the answer is they can’t cover him!! I continue to be baffled that kelce and cheetah are getting off every game! Surely a team can figure out a way to take one of them away!! I think I would bracket kelce cause you just can’t get kc off the field while he picking up one 1st down after another, I know that means you probably gonna get cracked upside the head with cheetah or hardman getting big plays but rather that than kelce owning the game I think.

Fisher injury the only thing that gives me any hesitation to pound kc, they were already down a tackle so this big imo. I think I decided to ignore packers missing their all world tackle and Bucs edge rushers played a huge part in that win, those guys are tough and think the only path for Tampa staying in this.
 
With that said about my concerns with kc missing tackles I do think the times Rodgers tried to step up and thru he had a ton of room but just wasn’t able to escape as those edge rushers had a better burst, I think mahomes gets thru those holes then has all day and tons of room to work with so Bowles will have to have a linebacker spying that imo. I gotta assume Rodgers being caught and sacked on those previous ones had something to do with why he didn’t take off on that 3rd down at end of game where it looked like he had a ton of room to get to pylon!!
 
2daBank said:
With that said about my concerns with kc missing tackles I do think the times Rodgers tried to step up and thru he had a ton of room but just wasn’t able to escape as those edge rushers had a better burst, I think mahomes gets thru those holes then has all day and tons of room to work with so Bowles will have to have a linebacker spying that imo. I gotta assume Rodgers being caught and sacked on those previous ones had something to do with why he didn’t take off on that 3rd down at end of game where it looked like he had a ton of room to get to pylon!!
Click to expand...


This is a such a great, astute observation....and so true. I am wondering if White will spy Mahomes, since he has that elite speed...but they can't leave Kelce open either. I would imagine that you don't drop White into coverage much in this one...he needs to be on Mahomes ass the whole way..
 
2daBank said:
cheetah had 200 yards in 1st qrtr last time they played! So think the answer is they can’t cover him!! I continue to be baffled that kelce and cheetah are getting off every game! Surely a team can figure out a way to take one of them away!! I think I would bracket kelce cause you just can’t get kc off the field while he picking up one 1st down after another, I know that means you probably gonna get cracked upside the head with cheetah or hardman getting big plays but rather that than kelce owning the game I think.

Fisher injury the only thing that gives me any hesitation to pound kc, they were already down a tackle so this big imo. I think I decided to ignore packers missing their all world tackle and Bucs edge rushers played a huge part in that win, those guys are tough and think the only path for Tampa staying in this.
Click to expand...


I feel the same way initially but I want to get more info..but at the same time, I am thinking wtf am I waiting for? No one can cover Reek...not with the other weapons on this team.
 
One thing I will say. I have zero concern about Brady keeping up in a shootout. He's so accurate and really got that deep ball humming the last half of the year after initial struggles. Just catch the damn ball. Also saints secondary and packers secondary are much better than kc secondary.

The thing is, the chiefs are excellent at small ball pass drives. Short throws for first downs. Eat clock. And they seem to always generate points.
 
HUNT said:
This is a such a great, astute observation....and so true. I am wondering if White will spy Mahomes, since he has that elite speed...but they can't leave Kelce open either. I would imagine that you don't drop White into coverage much in this one...he needs to be on Mahomes ass the whole way..
Click to expand...

thanks, I have my moments! Lol.

I think maybe they could or what I would do anyways is use white to try and jam kelce at the Los to prevent him from getting a clean release but then have a corner or safety over top of him so white can drop back and spy mahomes eyes for him running or anything short.. just like the ultimate rover! I think he athletic enough to pull that off.
 
HUNT said:
One thing I will say. I have zero concern about Brady keeping up in a shootout. He's so accurate and really got that deep ball humming the last half of the year after initial struggles. Just catch the damn ball. Also saints secondary and packers secondary are much better than kc secondary.

The thing is, the chiefs are excellent at small ball pass drives. Short throws for first downs. Eat clock. And they seem to always generate points.
Click to expand...

kc secondary played incredible in the afc championship, they were stuck on bills wrs like I rarely see any corners stick wrs. I tend to agree Brady will be able to hang points, really a question if spags can come up with a scheme to get pressure straight up the gut as that the best way to get Brady off his game imo, I don’t think the edge pressure they got on Allen will do a lick of good vs Brady as he will simply climb up in the pocket.
 
2daBank said:
kc secondary played incredible in the afc championship, they were stuck on bills wrs like I rarely see any corners stick wrs. I tend to agree Brady will be able to hang points, really a question if spags can come up with a scheme to get pressure straight up the gut as that the best way to get Brady off his game imo, I don’t think the edge pressure they got on Allen will do a lick of good vs Brady as he will simply climb up in the pocket.
Click to expand...


Yes. I guess I'm choosing to look at as an anomaly. The playoffs bring the best out in some teams though.

Bills could not get any flow at all and really had zero going for them play making wise except Allen's feet, which wasn't designed on the majority of his long gains.

Baker was hitting the outside receiver a ton the week prior. Great throws on the sidelines. But chiefs really stepped it up this past weekend. They had a plan to double Diggs deep and keep Beasley from any YAC at all. Sign of great coaching.

Bucs, if they get AB going will have more play makers on the field to account for. Evans, Godwin, AB, Gronk, Miller.
 
HUNT said:
Yes. I guess I'm choosing to look at as an anomaly. The playoffs bring the best out in some teams though.

Bills could not get any flow at all and really had zero going for them play making wise except Allen's feet, which wasn't designed on the majority of his long gains.

Baker was hitting the outside receiver a ton the week prior. Great throws on the sidelines. But chiefs really stepped it up this past weekend. They had a plan to double Diggs deep and keep Beasley from any YAC at all. Sign of great coaching.

Bucs, if they get AB going will have more play makers on the field to account for. Evans, Godwin, AB, Gronk, Miller.
Click to expand...

health of AB is big I think. Gronk nothing more than a blocker there for moral support at this point, he a shot fighter. Brate is more than capable tho and Gronk is helpful in pass protection.

I was shocked the way kc was able to cover so tightly against bills, so many times they showed shots downfield a good 3-4 seconds after snap and everyone was blanketed, Allen had nowhere to go with the ball. Def a tougher task vs Bucs and bills didn’t really have a evans type who open even when he covered. I assume he be way more healthy than he been in these playoffs after 2 weeks!
 
2daBank said:
health of AB is big I think. Gronk nothing more than a blocker there for moral support at this point, he a shot fighter. Brate is more than capable tho and Gronk is helpful in pass protection.

I was shocked the way kc was able to cover so tightly against bills, so many times they showed shots downfield a good 3-4 seconds after snap and everyone was blanketed, Allen had nowhere to go with the ball. Def a tougher task vs Bucs and bills didn’t really have a evans type who open even when he covered. I assume he be way more healthy than he been in these playoffs after 2 weeks!
Click to expand...


Gronk definitely more of a blocker now, but had a good game against KC the first time around I think. KC was awesome Sunday..no if's ands or buts about it..when they play like that Alabama can't even beat them ;)
 
I would be interested to see the variance between the spread and the final score for Super Bowls for the last 10 years or so. I would imagine that they are pretty close to each other. If so, I think that the proper bet is to let one team get up by 7-14 points then live bet the losing team at an inflated number because you know that the score will revert back to where Vegas originally had it set.
 
HUNT said:
Got some snow here in the mitten..thinking back to 94 I think it was....had a girl walk 5 miles to my house in a foot of snow to fuck..them days is long gone.
Click to expand...

god damn, if that don’t sound like we old as fuck! “She didbt even have a phone to call anyone!”. Lol. Did you make her walk back home/give her the boot after the deed was done? That be gangster!! Lol.
 
HUNT said:
Got some snow here in the mitten..thinking back to 94 I think it was....had a girl walk 5 miles to my house in a foot of snow to fuck..them days is long gone.
Click to expand...

we getting a few inches of snow it looks like, constitutes a blizzard this year, most snow we have had this winter, crazy!!! This seriously 1st time anything has stuck on ground. Most years we have at least 1 accumulating snow before xmas, and January full of snow storms. Fucked up year!!
 
2daBank said:
god damn, if that don’t sound like we old as fuck! “She didbt even have a phone to call anyone!”. Lol. Did you make her walk back home/give her the boot after the deed was done? That be gangster!! Lol.
Click to expand...


Haha, my mom was working that day so the girl had to walk home. We were in high school at the time. She called me on my house phone and walked in the morning to my house. We both had no car.
 
nole289 said:
I would be interested to see the variance between the spread and the final score for Super Bowls for the last 10 years or so. I would imagine that they are pretty close to each other. If so, I think that the proper bet is to let one team get up by 7-14 points then live bet the losing team at an inflated number because you know that the score will revert back to where Vegas originally had it set.
Click to expand...


Yes. This is what I do when I live bet sometimes with regards to ats. Try to live bet number away from game time line which everyone has.. And get away from teaser range as well. Specifically 6-7 point ones.
 
HUNT said:
Haha, my mom was working that day so the girl had to walk home. We were in high school at the time. She called me on my house phone and walked in the morning to my house. We both had no car.
Click to expand...

i remember when I started deciding I was done with school, think I had car but might have been broken down so I was walking a good 5-7 miles in morning to get to the cool skip house when I was supposed to be catching the bus! lol.
 
2daBank said:
i remember when I started deciding I was done with school, think I had car but might have been broken down so I was walking a good 5-7 miles in morning to get to the cool skip house when I was supposed to be catching the bus! lol.
Click to expand...


Lol... Great times bro. Good memories.
 
HUNT said:
Got some snow here in the mitten..thinking back to 94 I think it was....had a girl walk 5 miles to my house in a foot of snow to fuck..them days is long gone.
Click to expand...
It’s like a modern day version of the Abe Lincoln story. Instead of walking 5 miles to school like Lincoln did, this chick walks 5 miles in the snow to get smashed out.
 
SIGO said:
It’s like a modern day version of the Abe Lincoln story. Instead of walking 5 miles to school like Lincoln did, this chick walks 5 miles in the snow to get smashed out.
Click to expand...


I about spit my drink out at this!
 
Another interesting note.

The sportsbooks all stand to lose the most money from a bucs win due to the volume of futures placed on them when Brady signed. They would take their biggest hit if bucs win. Nothing that affects what I play... Just a nugget.
 
HUNT said:
Another interesting note.

The sportsbooks all stand to lose the most money from a bucs win due to the volume of futures placed on them when Brady signed. They would take their biggest hit if bucs win. Nothing that affects what I play... Just a nugget.
Click to expand...
Great point.
 
HUNT said:
Another interesting note.

The sportsbooks all stand to lose the most money from a bucs win due to the volume of futures placed on them when Brady signed. They would take their biggest hit if bucs win. Nothing that affects what I play... Just a nugget.
Click to expand...
Which I guess will offset the high percentage of bets on Kc spread and ml
 
HUNT said:
Another interesting note.

The sportsbooks all stand to lose the most money from a bucs win due to the volume of futures placed on them when Brady signed. They would take their biggest hit if bucs win. Nothing that affects what I play... Just a nugget.
Click to expand...

I was curious bout this as we were discussing that in another thread, I kinda assumed they have a lot of exposure on bucs futures. I’d guess they don’t want it landing on kc by 3 either, I wasn’t considering the futures at the time but figure they would get sided pretty bad with kc pushing and all the bucs+3.5 cashing.
 
Just a random note for next year. I'd recommend taking Green Bay to win the Super Bowl at +1200 now. Rodgers not going anywhere and I expect them to snag a top flight wr from the stacked WR market. I'm all in on pack if they get Rodgers some help.

Titans +3000 also ridiculous value. The defense will be better.
 
HUNT said:
Just a random note for next year. I'd recommend taking Green Bay to win the Super Bowl at +1200 now. Rodgers not going anywhere and I expect them to snag a top flight wr from the stacked WR market. I'm all in on pack if they get Rodgers some help.

Titans +3000 also ridiculous value. The defense will be better.
Click to expand...
I heard the Rams made a call for Rodgers 1st.
 
I'm not trying to shit on the Rams @wiseplayer. I like the team and Mcvay. Just not sure staff can get it done. But Goff couldn't either. Hopefully it works out for both of us as fans. Nothing better than hot stove football rumors and trades.

Sincerely,

A Lions fanatic since Billy Sims first donned the #20
 
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