2020 MLB Strategies

[Coverdatspred]

Great to have some sports trickling back in. What a shit show its been in the country the last six months. Anyway, we are all pretty aware of how things usually go in baseball and I usually make sure to read the Gamehunter thread at least once a year because its such a great reminder to not get carried away with betting favorites. However, this year is going to be so different. Its a sprint from the get go instead of the usual marathon. So lets hear it. What changes will there be to strategy here? I think this format absolutely benefits the better teams and we will see the cream rise early and often. Deep pitching staffs and deep benches have the clear advantage. I think we will see huge favorites and huge dogs even more than in regular seasons. Especially early on I believe the hitters will be further ahead than the pitchers because of the short summer camps. I think the -1 run calculator will be a huge tool this season.

Personally I will probably look to find a way to back favorites early on because with the shortened season there will be extra focus on teams getting a hot start.

Lets hear what you have as far as strategies for this weird season.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great to have ya around...

No clue on strategy as of yet... I think things will show themselves pretty quickly though.

 

[Bobbycmartin]

Judging by opening day, looks like we'll be waiting until gametime to pull trigger. Kershaw (back) and Soto (COVID) both out today. I think you'll win some/lose some if you bet early due to players moving to IL for COVID. I like the leverage in waiting to have as much information as possible. That being said, I have Nationals and over 7.5 and Dodgers/SF under and I bet last night...so FML

 

[2daBank]

Judging by opening day, looks like we'll be waiting until gametime to pull trigger. Kershaw (back) and Soto (COVID) both out today. I think you'll win some/lose some if you bet early due to players moving to IL for COVID. I like the leverage in waiting to have as much information as possible. That being said, I have Nationals and over 7.5 and Dodgers/SF under and I bet last night...so FML

I want to play this lad under now that It shot up but I’m so scared they gonna cream Cueto. In theory I think the overreacting from Kershaw to May is worth betting but I leaned over before the change cause cueto facing those lefty mashers seems like a bad matchup.

 

[HUNT]

Great to have some sports trickling back in. What a shit show its been in the country the last six months. Anyway, we are all pretty aware of how things usually go in baseball and I usually make sure to read the Gamehunter thread at least once a year because its such a great reminder to not get carried away with betting favorites. However, this year is going to be so different. Its a sprint from the get go instead of the usual marathon. So lets hear it. What changes will there be to strategy here? I think this format absolutely benefits the better teams and we will see the cream rise early and often. Deep pitching staffs and deep benches have the clear advantage. I think we will see huge favorites and huge dogs even more than in regular seasons. Especially early on I believe the hitters will be further ahead than the pitchers because of the short summer camps. I think the -1 run calculator will be a huge tool this season.

Personally I will probably look to find a way to back favorites early on because with the shortened season there will be extra focus on teams getting a hot start.

Lets hear what you have as far as strategies for this weird season.

great points, and I agree.

 

[Coverdatspred]

Favorites are 14-2 to start the season.
-1.5 RL's are 11-5.
-1 RL's are 11-2-3.

I think its just a matter of time before we see some really large favorite lines upwards of -250 for even average pitchers on some of these good teams. Managers are not going to use any of these games as throwaway games even on travel days. We are going to see the best lineups pretty much every day.

 

[BenchCoach]

Favorites are 14-2 to start the season.
-1.5 RL's are 11-5.
-1 RL's are 11-2-3.

I think its just a matter of time before we see some really large favorite lines upwards of -250 for even average pitchers on some of these good teams. Managers are not going to use any of these games as throwaway games even on travel days. We are going to see the best lineups pretty much every day.

completely agree here. I thought this would be a possible angle and it appears to be after a few games. Intensity level/focus of hitters and there quality of at bats is better than normal. Almost looks like postseason type at bats by guys, they are giving nothing away. First series of the season always tends to sway toward favs but not this much

 

[peelpub94]

Couldn't believe how much chalk I laid yesterday, and ended up doing really well. Same thing again today, hopefully it continues.

 

[BenchCoach]

Couldn't believe how much chalk I laid yesterday, and ended up doing really well. Same thing again today, hopefully it continues.

think it will for a few more days...if I hit em hard today I may take the day off tomorrow

 

[Coverdatspred]

It may actually take a few series. From what I’ve seen guys are really locked in. It will be interesting to see how this plays out from a capping prospective.

 

[wiseplayer]

Lesser teams like the Giants will put forth very little. It's almost as if they've conceded already. I think a list of these types of teams as well as a top 10 list would be important. Teams like the A's, Twins, Rangers, Cleveland and maybe Toronto could be where the value is when play the ML. Dodgers & Yankees will be outrageously priced and almost not worth it unless you're hooking them together in a 3+ team parlay. Gonna be interesting to see how badly books want us off the top teams with outrageous prices.

 

[Coverdatspred]

Lesser teams like the Giants will put forth very little. It's almost as if they've conceded already. I think a list of these types of teams as well as a top 10 list would be important. Teams like the A's, Twins, Rangers, Cleveland and maybe Toronto could be where the value is when play the ML. Dodgers & Yankees will be outrageously priced and almost not worth it unless you're hooking them together in a 3+ team parlay. Gonna be interesting to see how badly books want us off the top teams with outrageous prices.

I think it will just come down to how much risk you are willing to take. The Dodgers are -400 today for instance with Wood on the mound. Normally I would almost auto bet the dog in this situation but the Giants are that bad. This season is that different. I think it’s a reasonable risk to lay the -1.5 runs at -200 here personally. The Dodgers should beat this team by 2+ runs even if they put Fauci on the mound today.

 

[Coverdatspred]

Well.....baseball is still baseball. Such a tough sport to handicap. Constantly humbling. Plenty of dogs came through on Sunday. Guess you still gotta pick your spots.