2019 Preseason Guesses

[mrpickem]

John Harbaugh is the most profitable preseason coach in memory. He has went 29-15-1 (66%) ATS since 2004.
In Week 1 of the preseason the Ravens are 10-1 ATS.

So I'll take

• 264 Baltimore Ravens -3 -110

Added significance since I live in Jax and I'm glad to fade the home team

 

[UTSUX]

Thanks for the Winner

 

[mrpickem]

Head Coach Preseason Betting Records

Coach	ATS Record	O/U Record
Bill Belichick	39-37-6 (51.3%)	40-40-2
Andy Reid	38-39-4 (49.4%)	44-36-1
Mike Tomlin	24-26 (48.0%)	20-30
Pete Carroll	33-16 (67.3%)	23-26
Sean Payton	26-23 (53.1%)	22-23-4
John Harbaugh	30-15 (66.7%)	20-24-1
Jon Gruden	18-12-3 (60.0%)	15-18
Jason Garrett	11-21-1 (34.4%)	14-16-3
Ron Rivera	17-14-1 (54.8%)	18-14
Mike Zimmer	14-7 (66.7%)	8-12-1
Bruce Arians	10-9-2 (52.6%)	11-10
Jay Gruden	11-9 (55.0%)	7-13
Bill O’Brien	11-7-1 (61.1%)	6-13
Doug Marrone	8-8-1 (50.0%)	7-10
Dan Quinn	4-13 (23.5%)	5-11-1
Pat Shurmur	6-7 (46.2%)	6-6-1
Doug Pederson	7-5 (58.3%)	4-8
Adam Gase	5-7 (41.7%)	8-3-1
Sean McVay	4-4 (50.0%)	3-4-1
Anthony Lynn	3-5 (37.5%)	4-3-1
Sean McDermott	3-5 (37.5%)	3-5
Kyle Shanahan	3-4-1 (42.9%)	5-3
Matt Nagy	3-2 (60.0%)	4-1
Frank Reich	4-0 (100.0%)	1-3
Matt Patricia	1-3 (25.0%)	3-1
Mike Vrabel	0-4 (0.0%)	2-2
Zac Taylor*	0-0 (0.0%)	0-0
Vic Fangio*	1-0 (100%)	0-1
Matt LaFleur*	0-0 (0.0%)	0-0
Kliff Kingsbury*	0-0 (0.0%)	0-0
Freddie Kitchens*	0-0 (0.0%)	0-0
Brian Flores*	0-0 (0.0%)	0-0

 

[mrpickem]

Health concerns drove Arians to retire from the Cardinals but it didn't take long for him to get back into the league. It speaks to what he did with AZ with how quickly they plummeted after he left and why Tampa fans have good reason to be excited at what he brings to the table. Thinking more of a statement for TB even at Pitt. Steelers have to work around many new faces and there's no way their offense clicks right away. Tampa looks to make a statement here showing they are back.

• 273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -130
• 273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2½ -105
• 273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 37½ -109

Split 1/2 unit each on reduced juice and buying a half point. Tomlin known to keep these preseason total under as well

 

[tuck321]

Like Bengals today?

 

[Inspekdah]

Like Bengals today?

Driscoll has the legs to make this a game late. Take the points.

 

[mrpickem]

​	YTD ~ [2-2 -0.32] (My plays are always risking 1u unless specified otherwise)​
	401 Philadelphia Eagles/Jacksonville Jaguars* Under 35 -116 1.16/1 401 Philadelphia Eagles/Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Quarter Under 7½ -175 2.1/1.2 401 Philadelphia Eagles* +135 vs Jacksonville Jaguars .6/.81

Really can't see much scoring tonight. Jags still have lots of potential starters. Coach Moron is resting anyone with a stubbed toe because he was burnt with presaeson injuries last year. According to local source 27 roster players are not available tonight. This will be ugly football. Jags 1Q is a gift if something dont get weird like a pick 6. The the same group that got shut out last week will try again to score some points tonight.. last season the jags were 10-6 under; to end their season the last 5 home games stayed under. They try to be a running team without there stud RB, poor recipe. Only way Jags win is with D or special team score(s) and very low scoring

View attachment 41953

 

[mrpickem]

Got luck last night and all fell in place. Let me point out I have no huge insight or edge in these preseaon games and therefore these are played with a very small unit size. My typical unit is 2.5-3% of my bankroll on MLB and college hoops/football but NFL regular season is 1.5% and preseason 1%. This is unit size and I will go as high as 2u on some games...maybe a little more on a ML.

Tonight the Bills visit Carolina and catch 3. Josh Allen had a poor rookie season on a bad team and likely can't help but to improve on his 2018 65ish QB rating. He didn't exactly show off vs Colts last week going 6-11 for 66yds in limited action(No TD's on his watch). With the Panthers primarily playing a zone if takes away some of his ability to get out of the pocket and run, plus the mid range game will likely be tighter to work. Panthers worked hard in the offseason to bolster subpar pass rush and maybe it's paying off as the sacked the Bears 5 times a week ago.

​	YTD ~ [5-2 +2.69]​
	8/16/2019 7:00 PM Reduced Football 412 Carolina Panthers* -1 -105 vs Buffalo Bills 1/.952 8/16/2019 7:30 PM Reduced Football 413 Chicago Bears/New York Giants* Under 41 -108 1/.926

View attachment 41991​

 

[bones]

Love the extra attention to detail with the cheerleaders, lends confidence and a certain joie de vie. Really like tonight's sponsor.

 

[mrpickem]

​	YTD ~ [5-4 +0.69]​
	432 Denver Broncos* +105 vs San Francisco 49ers 1/1.05

View attachment 42109

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

The Lock is in :rofl: