Next NFL Season MVP To Be In Atlanta, Not Kansas City
NFL Pick: Matt Ryan
Because a lot of people are likely tempted to bet on Patrick Mahomes (+450) to be MVP, I want to offer three reasons why doing so would be a bad idea. History is one reason. A player hasn't earned MVP honors in two consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning did in 2008 and 2009. Such high-level continuity is rare because a lot tends to change from year to year. Players drop in quality, schedules get harder, important teammates get injured, opposing coaches get more creative, personnel changes transpire, defenders make fewer big mistakes, and so on. In NFL history, a quarterback has eclipsed 5,000 passing yards in a season 11 times and a quarterback has thrown for 50+ touchdowns two times. After each season, the quarterback suffered a regression in yardage and touchdowns.
The second and third reasons why Mahomes won't repeat is the loss of support around him and a harder schedule. In particular, Kansas City's pass protection should take a significant hit with the departure of starting center Mitch Morse. Mahomes will also miss wide receiver Chris Conley, In terms of schedule, Mahomes has arguably the hardest one. He faces eight of the top 10 passing defenses from last year and 11 of the top 13 ones by opposing passer rating.
I still want to pick a quarterback. The last six MVPs have been quarterbacks and the NFL is pass-centric. The nine most pass yardage-heavy seasons in NFL history have all come in this decade. With rule changes favoring quarterbacks, everything is in place for this trend to continue.
There is tremendous value in Matt Ryan, which 5Dimes currently has listed at +2500. For all of the attention paid to Mahomes, Ryan finished fourth in passer rating and third in both yards and touchdowns. He enjoys tremendous support at wide receiver in Julio Jones, who is annually the best yardage-per-down receiver, Mohamed Sanu, one of the best possession receivers by catch rate, and Calvin Ridley. Ridley was not only the best rookie wide receiver last season, but also in NFL history The electric playmaker was the seventh rookie receiver to accrue at least 750 yards and 10 touchdowns.
With two first-rounders and several free agent signings, the Falcons made their offensive line a top priority in the offseason. Ryan will face less pressure by having more time in the pocket and an improved rush attack.
Atlanta's switch at offensive coordinator from the incompetent Steve Sarkisian to Dirk Koetter will help. Skeptics may object that Ryan has struggled historically under a new OC. The problem with that skepticism is that Koetter is not really new. Koetter was Atlanta's OC from 2012-2014. Whereas Sarkisian emphasized horizontal passing, Koetter is known for more vertical passing, which absolutely suits Ryan's style. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay with its subpar quarterback quality was top-five in passing yards in each of the last two seasons. Also under Koetter, Ryan was a two-time Pro Bowler and accrued the best passing numbers of what was then the first half of his career.
There are nine different quarterbacks, including Mahomes, who are favored ahead of Ryan. Here is a concise breakdown of why I reject each candidate: Tom Brady lost Gronk and will have to develop chemistry with a bunch of new pass catchers. Drew Brees is throwing less often as New Orleans is becoming more run-heavy. Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers consistently throw too many interceptions. Carson Wentz is injury prone in the NFL, just like in college. Aaron Rodgers will still be extremely dependent on one receiver (Davante Adams). Baker Mayfield is still rather raw, especially against stronger pass defenses. Finally, Russell Wilson is too low-volume and doesn't have a very good receiving corps.
Matt Ryan, as a former MVP, has the proven ability. He has the top-notch receiving corps and support from his backfield and offensive line. He's durable, having missed only two games in his career. And, he has a very feasible schedule of opponents in terms of their opposing passer rating from last year. Eight of his opponents ranked bottom-10 in the category.
NFL Pick: Matt Ryan
Because a lot of people are likely tempted to bet on Patrick Mahomes (+450) to be MVP, I want to offer three reasons why doing so would be a bad idea. History is one reason. A player hasn't earned MVP honors in two consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning did in 2008 and 2009. Such high-level continuity is rare because a lot tends to change from year to year. Players drop in quality, schedules get harder, important teammates get injured, opposing coaches get more creative, personnel changes transpire, defenders make fewer big mistakes, and so on. In NFL history, a quarterback has eclipsed 5,000 passing yards in a season 11 times and a quarterback has thrown for 50+ touchdowns two times. After each season, the quarterback suffered a regression in yardage and touchdowns.
The second and third reasons why Mahomes won't repeat is the loss of support around him and a harder schedule. In particular, Kansas City's pass protection should take a significant hit with the departure of starting center Mitch Morse. Mahomes will also miss wide receiver Chris Conley, In terms of schedule, Mahomes has arguably the hardest one. He faces eight of the top 10 passing defenses from last year and 11 of the top 13 ones by opposing passer rating.
I still want to pick a quarterback. The last six MVPs have been quarterbacks and the NFL is pass-centric. The nine most pass yardage-heavy seasons in NFL history have all come in this decade. With rule changes favoring quarterbacks, everything is in place for this trend to continue.
There is tremendous value in Matt Ryan, which 5Dimes currently has listed at +2500. For all of the attention paid to Mahomes, Ryan finished fourth in passer rating and third in both yards and touchdowns. He enjoys tremendous support at wide receiver in Julio Jones, who is annually the best yardage-per-down receiver, Mohamed Sanu, one of the best possession receivers by catch rate, and Calvin Ridley. Ridley was not only the best rookie wide receiver last season, but also in NFL history The electric playmaker was the seventh rookie receiver to accrue at least 750 yards and 10 touchdowns.
With two first-rounders and several free agent signings, the Falcons made their offensive line a top priority in the offseason. Ryan will face less pressure by having more time in the pocket and an improved rush attack.
Atlanta's switch at offensive coordinator from the incompetent Steve Sarkisian to Dirk Koetter will help. Skeptics may object that Ryan has struggled historically under a new OC. The problem with that skepticism is that Koetter is not really new. Koetter was Atlanta's OC from 2012-2014. Whereas Sarkisian emphasized horizontal passing, Koetter is known for more vertical passing, which absolutely suits Ryan's style. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay with its subpar quarterback quality was top-five in passing yards in each of the last two seasons. Also under Koetter, Ryan was a two-time Pro Bowler and accrued the best passing numbers of what was then the first half of his career.
There are nine different quarterbacks, including Mahomes, who are favored ahead of Ryan. Here is a concise breakdown of why I reject each candidate: Tom Brady lost Gronk and will have to develop chemistry with a bunch of new pass catchers. Drew Brees is throwing less often as New Orleans is becoming more run-heavy. Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers consistently throw too many interceptions. Carson Wentz is injury prone in the NFL, just like in college. Aaron Rodgers will still be extremely dependent on one receiver (Davante Adams). Baker Mayfield is still rather raw, especially against stronger pass defenses. Finally, Russell Wilson is too low-volume and doesn't have a very good receiving corps.
Matt Ryan, as a former MVP, has the proven ability. He has the top-notch receiving corps and support from his backfield and offensive line. He's durable, having missed only two games in his career. And, he has a very feasible schedule of opponents in terms of their opposing passer rating from last year. Eight of his opponents ranked bottom-10 in the category.
