Hi all, we are less than two months away. This thread will concentrate on RSW/Futures/ETC
I have played a few National Championship futures but those will be visited later on. I am not investing too much into that as of now because it is pointless to be honest. Last season I had excellent numbers on Oklahoma before the season as well as Notre Dame (played the week before Stanford game) and I got to the playoffs and basically could not make money off of those. Now, I did make money during those playoff games but it had nothing to do with the investments in reality. My hope this year is something crazy happens in the SEC and that there will be value on 3 teams at some point other than Clemson (they are already in the playoff barring a something seismic).
I said last December that Justin Fields was going to be a Heisman candidate but I wasn't able to get down on the excellent odds that were available at that point. Now, it is pointless and still will most likely be a make-up for Tua or a coronation for Spicoli. Last year I identified Kyler and Haskins early but I did not properly stake Kyler to be honest. I am still kicking myself for that as I ended up betting Tua in-season as well to take away most of the margin I would of had. We'll see if any value presents itself this season at any point. I would not count on it.
I will be stalking an in-season number on the Big Ten West. I have a few scenarios that hopefully play out. We shall see...
Now, last season I think was a career high for RSW bets from me with 4 of them. I tell ya what, there is nothing worse than sweating and overreacting to these each and every week. It isn't that fun, unless you win. Early on last year I was scared of going 0-4 but I ended up at 3-1 with..
MSU under
Georgia Over
UL-Monroe Over
LSU Under
At least the LSU bet wasn't even close. I should have trusted a good source, our own @M.O.T with his takes on this team. In retrospect, the capping of it made sense and some trusted allies were on it so I have no problem with it. They made mincemeat of it though.
So, with all this being said, lets go ahead and get to a play with some thoughts. That is what we are here for, right?
I am going to stick with one of last seasons teams as well here, albeit a different conclusion...
Michigan State RSW O7.5 -105
Here is what we know about the Spartans:
-Very good defense
-Good coaching
-Will play offense a pretty ancient way
-Generally overachieves after under achieving
-Will complain about injuries
Here are the question marks:
-QB position
-The play calling
-Musical chairs of assistants and duties
-Offensive line(as always)
-Injuries(as always)
Now, I am going to keep this write-up pretty simple. My thing here is to get my main points across and then this can turn into good discussion as well...
Lets go backwards and look at this years schedule:
Home vs Tulsa 7:00 (Fri)
Home vs Western Michigan 7:30
Home vs Arizona State 4:00
Away @ Northwestern TBA
Home vs Indiana 3:30/4:00
Away @ Ohio State 7:30
Away @ Wisconsin 3:30/4:00
BYE
Home vs Penn State TBA
BYE
Home vs Illinois TBA
Away @ Michigan TBA
Away @ Rutgers TBA
Home vs Maryland TBA
Okay, we'll get back to that in a bit...
Here is how I see this team unfolding...
They will have less injuries than they did last year. This is like a recurring thing with this program, the injuries. To be honest and not to flame-throw but they started having that injury bug around the time several years ago ESPN was setting up shop around campus. Yes, like it or not and it happens at many schools, MSU definitely had some 'vitamin' usage going on for awhile. Now, after a few years of being clean and going through new cycles of players perhaps it is just the training/conditioning programs in general? Who knows... anyways... that is why you have depth and that is the biggest thing with all the guys that have gotten kicked off the team or transferred....they have not been very deep.
I think that not having LJ Scott is a definite plus for this team. He basically got worse each year for them after looking like a breakout star. I think he was a small cancer on the team... nothing like Malik McDowell was a few years ago but I think this is addition by subtraction.
The biggest question is obviously the QB position. I will stick with my assertion that they should be going with Theo Day if he is everything they hyped him up to be. I do not see a suddenly 'star' Lewerke this season making that big of a push. But, who knows? Rocky Lombardi is simply a back-up, that is all. Now, if Lewerke regains confidence and is allowed to free-wheel the offense will be better. He will turn it over some and be prone to injury but he simply is not a drop-back guy. He needs to be given no leash at all, again, in my opinion.
The 2nd biggest question is the play-calling. The Spartans shuffled the coaching staff to 'shake' things up. Now, to me this is not a great solution but they have nowhere to go but up. This is simple, average in the 20's and this team wins some games and then some. They lost 4 games overall when allowing 21 points or less. I think the play-calling will be better and they will be an 'average' offense...
But...that is fine...
Because they have a very good defense. The defense has ONE FLAW though...
What is that? Well, like many other teams that have to carry their offense they would wear down at times in 4th quarters. I do not think this was physically but more mentally. When you have to constantly keep the other team out of the end zone with no room for error that drains you. This is not my first rodeo watching a defense have to carry an offense... I have seen this many times and you could basically see it happening a lot last year (NW game, OSU game, great examples).
Now, I think they offense will be better as stated above and relieve some of the pressure on the defense.
Now, lets get back to that schedule. I think it sets up pretty well overall. It is not a tough schedule and frankly the RSW currently being at 7.5 doesn't make sense. You could have this at 8 juiced slightly and be more appropriate...
Michigan State will win their first two games, I just do not see some random upset here. That is 2-0 right off the bat.
Michigan State, even if battered will win its last two games of the season. Rutgers is awful and Maryland will not be able to beat them with the pass. They certainly will not run on them again. The Sparty offense will do well enough against that defense that lost a lot, even though it is the last game of the year.
So, that is 4 wins and we are halfway there to the magic number of 8.
Arizona State- This game is pretty simple to me. The Sun Devils lose Manny and Neal but still have Eno. Well, Benjamin will not run on this defense much like last year and as a team they should struggle. This should be a comfortable win.
Northwestern- This rivalry has had some fun games the past several years and MSU owes the Cats one, no doubt. This is a tough game because NW will keep passing and that is the only way you will score anything consistently on this defense. With that being said, despite this being a road game I think it is a toss-up.
Indiana - Homecoming after the trip to Evanston. This is another rival in which there has been some weird games. The IU defense is slowly improving but the QB's do not strike a lot of fear in me. The Spartans should be able to bottle up Stevie Scott.
Now, comes the hard part of the schedule. At this point I see MSU at 4-1 or 5-0 as they head into Columbus...
Ohio State- Night game at the shoe. This should be a good one. Two years ago was an absolute blowout down there but I think this will be a tighter affair. Ohio State will have a battle but eventually gets it going enough through the air to get some scores in the 2nd half and win the game
Wisconsin- This is a tough spot for the Spartans. The Badgers will have a cupcake the week before with Kent State and be fresher obviously entering this game. Now, I think this will be an absolute battle but I would say it is around 40/60 that Michigan State wins here.
Penn State- A bye before and a bye after is huge here. This is a game Michigan State wins. I am not high on PSU this year although I think they will be a tough out at times. I have them at this point around 8-9 wins total. They also will be right off a 'White Out' game vs Michigan the week before.
Illinois - WIN, obviously
Michigan - The Wolverines have a bye week before this game. Michigan State will have a bag of tricks ready and this should be the usual war it has been the last 3 of 4 years. Now, the new Michigan offense should be much better suited than others to get some scoring opportunities versus this defense. Either way, anything can happen and who knows what kind of weather we see. I'll call this a loss but you never know.
Recap of schedule:
-I have 5 for sure wins
-I am supremely confident they beat ASU
-I am pretty sure they beat Indiana
-I like the schedule spot vs Penn State not to mention Franklin will do something stupid in a tight game
-Overall, in the 3 game stretch vs OSU/Wisky/PSU I see at least one win.
-Northwestern is the closest toss-up game
I do not think I have to sweat this after Rutgers week. I think this is a 9 win team. A few bounces the other way they are at 8 and with some Sparty Lucky Charms could even hit 10 somehow.
This offense would have to somehow regress from last year for them to not get anywhere near this number.
Again, this is all in my opinion and anything can happen but this number seems pretty soft to me.
I have played a few National Championship futures but those will be visited later on. I am not investing too much into that as of now because it is pointless to be honest. Last season I had excellent numbers on Oklahoma before the season as well as Notre Dame (played the week before Stanford game) and I got to the playoffs and basically could not make money off of those. Now, I did make money during those playoff games but it had nothing to do with the investments in reality. My hope this year is something crazy happens in the SEC and that there will be value on 3 teams at some point other than Clemson (they are already in the playoff barring a something seismic).
I said last December that Justin Fields was going to be a Heisman candidate but I wasn't able to get down on the excellent odds that were available at that point. Now, it is pointless and still will most likely be a make-up for Tua or a coronation for Spicoli. Last year I identified Kyler and Haskins early but I did not properly stake Kyler to be honest. I am still kicking myself for that as I ended up betting Tua in-season as well to take away most of the margin I would of had. We'll see if any value presents itself this season at any point. I would not count on it.
I will be stalking an in-season number on the Big Ten West. I have a few scenarios that hopefully play out. We shall see...
Now, last season I think was a career high for RSW bets from me with 4 of them. I tell ya what, there is nothing worse than sweating and overreacting to these each and every week. It isn't that fun, unless you win. Early on last year I was scared of going 0-4 but I ended up at 3-1 with..
MSU under
Georgia Over
UL-Monroe Over
LSU Under
At least the LSU bet wasn't even close. I should have trusted a good source, our own @M.O.T with his takes on this team. In retrospect, the capping of it made sense and some trusted allies were on it so I have no problem with it. They made mincemeat of it though.
So, with all this being said, lets go ahead and get to a play with some thoughts. That is what we are here for, right?
I am going to stick with one of last seasons teams as well here, albeit a different conclusion...
Michigan State RSW O7.5 -105
Here is what we know about the Spartans:
-Very good defense
-Good coaching
-Will play offense a pretty ancient way
-Generally overachieves after under achieving
-Will complain about injuries
Here are the question marks:
-QB position
-The play calling
-Musical chairs of assistants and duties
-Offensive line(as always)
-Injuries(as always)
Now, I am going to keep this write-up pretty simple. My thing here is to get my main points across and then this can turn into good discussion as well...
Lets go backwards and look at this years schedule:
Home vs Tulsa 7:00 (Fri)
Home vs Western Michigan 7:30
Home vs Arizona State 4:00
Away @ Northwestern TBA
Home vs Indiana 3:30/4:00
Away @ Ohio State 7:30
Away @ Wisconsin 3:30/4:00
BYE
Home vs Penn State TBA
BYE
Home vs Illinois TBA
Away @ Michigan TBA
Away @ Rutgers TBA
Home vs Maryland TBA
Okay, we'll get back to that in a bit...
Here is how I see this team unfolding...
They will have less injuries than they did last year. This is like a recurring thing with this program, the injuries. To be honest and not to flame-throw but they started having that injury bug around the time several years ago ESPN was setting up shop around campus. Yes, like it or not and it happens at many schools, MSU definitely had some 'vitamin' usage going on for awhile. Now, after a few years of being clean and going through new cycles of players perhaps it is just the training/conditioning programs in general? Who knows... anyways... that is why you have depth and that is the biggest thing with all the guys that have gotten kicked off the team or transferred....they have not been very deep.
I think that not having LJ Scott is a definite plus for this team. He basically got worse each year for them after looking like a breakout star. I think he was a small cancer on the team... nothing like Malik McDowell was a few years ago but I think this is addition by subtraction.
The biggest question is obviously the QB position. I will stick with my assertion that they should be going with Theo Day if he is everything they hyped him up to be. I do not see a suddenly 'star' Lewerke this season making that big of a push. But, who knows? Rocky Lombardi is simply a back-up, that is all. Now, if Lewerke regains confidence and is allowed to free-wheel the offense will be better. He will turn it over some and be prone to injury but he simply is not a drop-back guy. He needs to be given no leash at all, again, in my opinion.
The 2nd biggest question is the play-calling. The Spartans shuffled the coaching staff to 'shake' things up. Now, to me this is not a great solution but they have nowhere to go but up. This is simple, average in the 20's and this team wins some games and then some. They lost 4 games overall when allowing 21 points or less. I think the play-calling will be better and they will be an 'average' offense...
But...that is fine...
Because they have a very good defense. The defense has ONE FLAW though...
What is that? Well, like many other teams that have to carry their offense they would wear down at times in 4th quarters. I do not think this was physically but more mentally. When you have to constantly keep the other team out of the end zone with no room for error that drains you. This is not my first rodeo watching a defense have to carry an offense... I have seen this many times and you could basically see it happening a lot last year (NW game, OSU game, great examples).
Now, I think they offense will be better as stated above and relieve some of the pressure on the defense.
Now, lets get back to that schedule. I think it sets up pretty well overall. It is not a tough schedule and frankly the RSW currently being at 7.5 doesn't make sense. You could have this at 8 juiced slightly and be more appropriate...
Michigan State will win their first two games, I just do not see some random upset here. That is 2-0 right off the bat.
Michigan State, even if battered will win its last two games of the season. Rutgers is awful and Maryland will not be able to beat them with the pass. They certainly will not run on them again. The Sparty offense will do well enough against that defense that lost a lot, even though it is the last game of the year.
So, that is 4 wins and we are halfway there to the magic number of 8.
Arizona State- This game is pretty simple to me. The Sun Devils lose Manny and Neal but still have Eno. Well, Benjamin will not run on this defense much like last year and as a team they should struggle. This should be a comfortable win.
Northwestern- This rivalry has had some fun games the past several years and MSU owes the Cats one, no doubt. This is a tough game because NW will keep passing and that is the only way you will score anything consistently on this defense. With that being said, despite this being a road game I think it is a toss-up.
Indiana - Homecoming after the trip to Evanston. This is another rival in which there has been some weird games. The IU defense is slowly improving but the QB's do not strike a lot of fear in me. The Spartans should be able to bottle up Stevie Scott.
Now, comes the hard part of the schedule. At this point I see MSU at 4-1 or 5-0 as they head into Columbus...
Ohio State- Night game at the shoe. This should be a good one. Two years ago was an absolute blowout down there but I think this will be a tighter affair. Ohio State will have a battle but eventually gets it going enough through the air to get some scores in the 2nd half and win the game
Wisconsin- This is a tough spot for the Spartans. The Badgers will have a cupcake the week before with Kent State and be fresher obviously entering this game. Now, I think this will be an absolute battle but I would say it is around 40/60 that Michigan State wins here.
Penn State- A bye before and a bye after is huge here. This is a game Michigan State wins. I am not high on PSU this year although I think they will be a tough out at times. I have them at this point around 8-9 wins total. They also will be right off a 'White Out' game vs Michigan the week before.
Illinois - WIN, obviously
Michigan - The Wolverines have a bye week before this game. Michigan State will have a bag of tricks ready and this should be the usual war it has been the last 3 of 4 years. Now, the new Michigan offense should be much better suited than others to get some scoring opportunities versus this defense. Either way, anything can happen and who knows what kind of weather we see. I'll call this a loss but you never know.
Recap of schedule:
-I have 5 for sure wins
-I am supremely confident they beat ASU
-I am pretty sure they beat Indiana
-I like the schedule spot vs Penn State not to mention Franklin will do something stupid in a tight game
-Overall, in the 3 game stretch vs OSU/Wisky/PSU I see at least one win.
-Northwestern is the closest toss-up game
I do not think I have to sweat this after Rutgers week. I think this is a 9 win team. A few bounces the other way they are at 8 and with some Sparty Lucky Charms could even hit 10 somehow.
This offense would have to somehow regress from last year for them to not get anywhere near this number.
Again, this is all in my opinion and anything can happen but this number seems pretty soft to me.
