2019-2020 NBA Futures

[raems]

Season coming up and I added some new futures, figured I’d consolidate into one thread

Clips NBA Champs +1400 risking 5u
Lakers NBA Champs +300 risking 20u
Jazz NBA Champs +4200 risking 1u
Heat East Champs +5500 risking 1u

Got these all over the summer, old thread explains my rationale.

Giannis MVP +330, risking 3.3u.
Nobody else on a projected top seed has a cleaner path

Spurs no playoffs +166, risking 6.67u.
Their bench got weaker and I see them selling rather than buying with DDR/Aldridge stints ending

Pacers Under 47.5 wins -125, risking 4.16u
Don’t see an offensive blueprint to our scoring teams, they lost 2 crucial pieces, Dipo won’t be himself this season, and India comedown to start the year. They’re way overvalued.

Bulls Playoffs +246, risking 3.33u
Like their additions and depth, think they have as good a shot as any of these other blah teams at finding 38 wins and sneaking in

Pelicans Playoffs +197, risking 3.33
Pelicans Over 38.5 wins -138, risking 4.58u
I think they have great depth and added a current top 25 NBA player with the first overall pick

Mavs Over 40.5 wins +105, risking 3.33u
Mavs Playoffs +195, risking 3.33u
Luka, KP and logical surrounding pieces has a shot every night against any opponent

Nets Under 44.5 wins -125, risking 4.16u
Brand new team takes time to piece together, all the mojo from last year been replaced + China comedown here too

Suns Under 29.5 wins -110, risking 3.67u
Somebody in the West has to be very bad, don’t see why it won’t be the Suns

Clippers West Champs +225, risking 6.67u

Blazers no playoffs +190, risking 3.33u
Too much roster flux, lack of good wing depth, and reliance on Whiteside here for my liking

Zion ROY -150, risking 10u

I will take this return every day of the week, as I see this as a -150 wager that Zion plays in 60 games this season.

 

[B.A.R.]

Lots of fun stuff to banter about. I'll start tonight with one... The MVP means so much to Harden...he was quite upset this summer and was basically politicking for it. I feel like that is something that may obviously drive him but that they will push too. Thoughts?

 

[raems]

Lots of fun stuff to banter about. I'll start tonight with one... The MVP means so much to Harden...he was quite upset this summer and was basically politicking for it. I feel like that is something that may obviously drive him but that they will push too. Thoughts?

I think they’ll load manage him for the first time this season and generally don’t love betting him off a career year. With that said his team has 1 seed upside and he is the scoring title favorite so taking him isn’t a shot in the dark by any stretch.

 

[raems]

Waiting a few more Pels games to sprinkle in Ja ROY to offset most of my Zion risk.

Considering adding some Rockets futures too but tbd. Suns look like a loss and 50/50 on the Pacers, hoping to see a few unexpected losses there.

 

[B.A.R.]

Waiting a few more Pels games to sprinkle in Ja ROY to offset most of my Zion risk.

Considering adding some Rockets futures too but tbd. Suns look like a loss and 50/50 on the Pacers, hoping to see a few unexpected losses there.

Well, you were spot on about Zion being a top 25 player... He just got a late start. I'm curious if all the coverage of him sways votes anyways. Thoughts?

 

[raems]

Well, you were spot on about Zion being a top 25 player... He just got a late start. I'm curious if all the coverage of him sways votes anyways. Thoughts?

He has a real chance if the Pels get in and Morant hits a rookie wall and loses efficiency with his best bigs currently injured. With that said, the Zion and Pels futures are so correlated right now that I want to just offload some risk. Feels greedy to continue sitting on both positions in their entirety.

 

[B.A.R.]

He has a real chance if the Pels get in and Morant hits a rookie wall and loses efficiency with his best bigs currently injured. With that said, the Zion and Pels futures are so correlated right now that I want to just offload some risk. Feels greedy to continue sitting on both positions in their entirety.

Fair enough. I'd do the same.

IMO, Morant did hit that wall a bit in late January/early February. The exposure difference down the stretch will be immense. This could get interesting.

 

[raems]

Bump.

Will reconcile the record and update some other futures I’ve added over the weeks/months.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice job on Spurs bet.

I'm assuming that Portland bet is still open till play in is done?

 

[raems]

3-2, +21.8u.

Nice hit on the spurs, counting Giannis as an inevitable win. The win totals voided out and I sprinkled 1u on Herro +1400 before he got injured for ROY, and mixed up at a few books a blended 21u to win 10u on Ja ROY, which nets out at -6u on the Zion ROY bet. That equals 4-3, +15.8u on completed wagers. If I had to guess the Portland bet will be a loser soon to getting me to +12.5u.

Remaining:

clips champs 5/70
Lakers champs 20/60
Jazz champs 1/42 (burn this one now)
Heat east champs 1/55
Clips west champs 6.67/12.3

New additions since last post:

clips west champs 20/39 blended at a few books

philly east champs 3/14 placed mid season, little did I know this had no value

Raptors east champs 3/30 placed at a poorly priced book before the bubble

rockets west champs 3/30 placed at the same poorly priced book before the bubble

I think Miami beats Milwaukee to get us a Heat Raptors ECF, and I’ve thought the clips are the best team all year now they’re healthy and drew a double bye. I’m on record liking the Rockets’ strategy against the Lakers but the Russ injury came at a very inopportune time.

My big exposure in terms of likelihood is Milwaukee winning the east. If I’m right about Miami I should have an opportunity to take some risk off the table in round 2 if the heat go up 2-1 or 3-2. To anybody questioning my prices on the original wagers posted preseason, I had a Kawhi prediction/subsequent freakout last July in a separate thread where my Clips championship price was documented.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff.