BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Historical WC Final stats that I see as relevant to goal scoring betting...
(1) Full Game Total considerations
In looking through the past finals stats, one thing stood out like a sore thumb, especially as recent finals results are without any doubt going to be swaying many people on one particular front: the full-game total. 4 straight finals, and 5 of the last 6, have gone u2.5, with 3 of them not even featuring a regulation time goal at all. It's probably seen as a must-bet at this point, where someone just considers themselves unlucky if they should lose. But there is a method to this low scoring madness. And that method concerns asking one simple question:
Where is the final being played?
There have been 9 finals played outside of European soil: of the 18 teams involved, 7 have been held scoreless.
There have been 10 finals played on European soil: of the 20 teams involved, only 2 have been held scoreless.
10.0% of participants in European hosted finals have failed to score versus 38.9% of participants in non-European hosted finals. But wait, the killer stat is yet to come: the 2 teams to not score in Euro finals? South American teams. All 17 European teams to feature in European hosted finals have scored at least 1 goal each. If that 84 year trend holds here (it started with 1934's final), that obviously means 2 goals minimum. Who'd think about backing u2.5 pre-game if they knew it was a given both teams would score?
I've stated in numerous previous posts that, for me, 'the modern WC era' starts with 1982's tournament (it was the Cup that returned to featuring quarter-finals & semi-finals after those phases were stupidly excised from the '74 & '78 tournaments, and it involved the expansion from the long-held 16 teams to 24 teams). So, in this modern era there have been 4 finals held on European soil...
1982: 3-1 (0-0 1h)
1990: 1-0 (0-0 1h) Argentina held to nil
1998: 3-0 (2-0 1h) Brazil held to nil
2006: 1-1 (1-1 1h)
France has been involved in 2 of them ('98, '06), and as a team averaged 2 goals/game.
European hosted finals avg. 3.70 goals/game; Modern era only avg. 2.50 goals/game
Non-Euro hosted finals avg. 2.66 goals/game; Modern era only avg. 1.40 goals/game
The venue in the modern era where Under bets for Finals have truly been certified gold: not on European soil.
(2) Time of the 1st Score considerations
1st goal options appear in 15 min blocks, so (modern era figure first, 'old era' figure in brackets)...
...._1st-15th min: 1 (6)
._16th-30th min: 2 (2)
...31st-45th min: 0 (1)
..46th-60th min: 1 (0)
._61st-75th min: 1 (1)
...76th-90+ min: 1 (0)
No goal scored: 3 (0)
In the complete history of WC finals (both eras), there has only ever been 1 game that's opened its scoring with a goal between the 28th & 54th minutes (the 38th minute of the 1978 final, by the team playing on home soil, Argentina). And man what a difference between eras: 60% of the old era finals opening their scoring inside the first 15 minutes, compared to only 11% of the modern era finals.
Concerning the modern era, 33% of the opening goals come inside the first half-hour; 33% of the opening goals have come sometime in the 2h, and 33% of the time there's been no regulation time goals at all. The last 15 mins of the 1h has been an offensive desert from not only this angle, but also...
Looking now at not just the opening goals but at the time spacing of all the goals scored in the modern era finals...
..1st 30 minutes: 4 goals / 30.77%
2nd 30 minutes: 2 goals / 15.38%
.3rd 30 minutes: 7 goals / 53.85%
This pretty much aligns with the 1st goal chart, since the desert that is the 31st-45th min 'zone' for opening goals in involved in the 2nd 30 minute 'zone' here. The middle half-hour has been an offensive desert, while the back-end of games have seen most of the fireworks. To rearrange this chart into more specific minutes...
...1st-27th min: 4 goals / 30.77% of the goals in 30.00% of total playing time
28th-77th min: 3 goals / 23.08% of the goals in 55.55% of total playing time
.78th-90+ min: 6 goals / 46.15% of the goals in 14.44% of total playing time
The first period is perfectly aligned: the total number of 'early-ish' goals scored matches the total amount of time they took to occur in. Beyond that things get wacky. The vast middle period of these finals have been offensively challenged, followed by the rush to make up for that come the winding down of the game. Once we hit 15 mins to go, betting the current live total line Over has been money (of the 4 European hosted finals in the modern era, 3 have had goals scored in the final 8 minutes). Only 1 of the 5 modern era finals to have had a 0-0 h/t scoreline has failed to deliver a goal past the 75 min mark (scored in either regulation time or the following 30 mins ET). The exception is the only final to have been played on US soil (Americans got the result they dreaded: no goals scored before a shoot-out, lol).
(3) Half Scoring considerations
1st Half scoring in the modern era (Euro hosted, then non-Euro hosted in brackets)
0 goals: 2 (4) ... 2 goalless
..1 goal: 0 (1)
2 goals: 2 (0) ... 2 w/goals = 50% have involved scoring
2nd Half scoring in the modern era (Euro hosted, then non-Euro hosted in brackets)
0 goals: 1 (3) ... 1 goalless
..1 goal: 2 (0)
2 goals: 0 (1)
3 goals: 1 (1) ... 3 w/goals = 75% have involved scoring
The first thing that strikes me here is, there's never been a 1-goal first half in a modern era final on European soil (this extends into old era finals as well: in the 10 finals hosted on Euro soil none have seen a 1h total 1 goal. This is simply a bizarre stat; by comparison, 2 of 9 non-Euro finals have involved 1-goal 1h). Also, while there's been 6 scoreless 1h, 66% of those have come in non-Euro finals.
Finally, just an all-era finals observation on scoreless 2nd halves: Up until and including 2002's final, only 2 of 16 finals had involved a scoreless 2h. Every final since ('06, '10, '14) has seen no 2h scoring. At the point where the count was only 2/16, one could understand a results regression occurring to even things up a bit (a 12.5% rate is low), but at 3 straight I'd say with confidence we've hit a saturation point (a rate in excess of 25% is high; 5/19 = 26.3%). There will be a 2h goal in this coming final.
(1) Full Game Total considerations
In looking through the past finals stats, one thing stood out like a sore thumb, especially as recent finals results are without any doubt going to be swaying many people on one particular front: the full-game total. 4 straight finals, and 5 of the last 6, have gone u2.5, with 3 of them not even featuring a regulation time goal at all. It's probably seen as a must-bet at this point, where someone just considers themselves unlucky if they should lose. But there is a method to this low scoring madness. And that method concerns asking one simple question:
Where is the final being played?
There have been 9 finals played outside of European soil: of the 18 teams involved, 7 have been held scoreless.
There have been 10 finals played on European soil: of the 20 teams involved, only 2 have been held scoreless.
10.0% of participants in European hosted finals have failed to score versus 38.9% of participants in non-European hosted finals. But wait, the killer stat is yet to come: the 2 teams to not score in Euro finals? South American teams. All 17 European teams to feature in European hosted finals have scored at least 1 goal each. If that 84 year trend holds here (it started with 1934's final), that obviously means 2 goals minimum. Who'd think about backing u2.5 pre-game if they knew it was a given both teams would score?
I've stated in numerous previous posts that, for me, 'the modern WC era' starts with 1982's tournament (it was the Cup that returned to featuring quarter-finals & semi-finals after those phases were stupidly excised from the '74 & '78 tournaments, and it involved the expansion from the long-held 16 teams to 24 teams). So, in this modern era there have been 4 finals held on European soil...
1982: 3-1 (0-0 1h)
1990: 1-0 (0-0 1h) Argentina held to nil
1998: 3-0 (2-0 1h) Brazil held to nil
2006: 1-1 (1-1 1h)
France has been involved in 2 of them ('98, '06), and as a team averaged 2 goals/game.
European hosted finals avg. 3.70 goals/game; Modern era only avg. 2.50 goals/game
Non-Euro hosted finals avg. 2.66 goals/game; Modern era only avg. 1.40 goals/game
The venue in the modern era where Under bets for Finals have truly been certified gold: not on European soil.
(2) Time of the 1st Score considerations
1st goal options appear in 15 min blocks, so (modern era figure first, 'old era' figure in brackets)...
...._1st-15th min: 1 (6)
._16th-30th min: 2 (2)
...31st-45th min: 0 (1)
..46th-60th min: 1 (0)
._61st-75th min: 1 (1)
...76th-90+ min: 1 (0)
No goal scored: 3 (0)
In the complete history of WC finals (both eras), there has only ever been 1 game that's opened its scoring with a goal between the 28th & 54th minutes (the 38th minute of the 1978 final, by the team playing on home soil, Argentina). And man what a difference between eras: 60% of the old era finals opening their scoring inside the first 15 minutes, compared to only 11% of the modern era finals.
Concerning the modern era, 33% of the opening goals come inside the first half-hour; 33% of the opening goals have come sometime in the 2h, and 33% of the time there's been no regulation time goals at all. The last 15 mins of the 1h has been an offensive desert from not only this angle, but also...
Looking now at not just the opening goals but at the time spacing of all the goals scored in the modern era finals...
..1st 30 minutes: 4 goals / 30.77%
2nd 30 minutes: 2 goals / 15.38%
.3rd 30 minutes: 7 goals / 53.85%
This pretty much aligns with the 1st goal chart, since the desert that is the 31st-45th min 'zone' for opening goals in involved in the 2nd 30 minute 'zone' here. The middle half-hour has been an offensive desert, while the back-end of games have seen most of the fireworks. To rearrange this chart into more specific minutes...
...1st-27th min: 4 goals / 30.77% of the goals in 30.00% of total playing time
28th-77th min: 3 goals / 23.08% of the goals in 55.55% of total playing time
.78th-90+ min: 6 goals / 46.15% of the goals in 14.44% of total playing time
The first period is perfectly aligned: the total number of 'early-ish' goals scored matches the total amount of time they took to occur in. Beyond that things get wacky. The vast middle period of these finals have been offensively challenged, followed by the rush to make up for that come the winding down of the game. Once we hit 15 mins to go, betting the current live total line Over has been money (of the 4 European hosted finals in the modern era, 3 have had goals scored in the final 8 minutes). Only 1 of the 5 modern era finals to have had a 0-0 h/t scoreline has failed to deliver a goal past the 75 min mark (scored in either regulation time or the following 30 mins ET). The exception is the only final to have been played on US soil (Americans got the result they dreaded: no goals scored before a shoot-out, lol).
(3) Half Scoring considerations
1st Half scoring in the modern era (Euro hosted, then non-Euro hosted in brackets)
0 goals: 2 (4) ... 2 goalless
..1 goal: 0 (1)
2 goals: 2 (0) ... 2 w/goals = 50% have involved scoring
2nd Half scoring in the modern era (Euro hosted, then non-Euro hosted in brackets)
0 goals: 1 (3) ... 1 goalless
..1 goal: 2 (0)
2 goals: 0 (1)
3 goals: 1 (1) ... 3 w/goals = 75% have involved scoring
The first thing that strikes me here is, there's never been a 1-goal first half in a modern era final on European soil (this extends into old era finals as well: in the 10 finals hosted on Euro soil none have seen a 1h total 1 goal. This is simply a bizarre stat; by comparison, 2 of 9 non-Euro finals have involved 1-goal 1h). Also, while there's been 6 scoreless 1h, 66% of those have come in non-Euro finals.
Finally, just an all-era finals observation on scoreless 2nd halves: Up until and including 2002's final, only 2 of 16 finals had involved a scoreless 2h. Every final since ('06, '10, '14) has seen no 2h scoring. At the point where the count was only 2/16, one could understand a results regression occurring to even things up a bit (a 12.5% rate is low), but at 3 straight I'd say with confidence we've hit a saturation point (a rate in excess of 25% is high; 5/19 = 26.3%). There will be a 2h goal in this coming final.
Last edited:
