2018 NCAAF Dollaz

Dollaz

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Just a quicker writeup than normal. To start, ODU -6.5 vs. Liberty. Liberty is going to be fired up, but I think the talent gap is too much. ODU should be able to run all over them and the DL should dominate Liberty's OL. ODU's season is high risk with an 18 year old QB, but they have a lot of experience. Lots of talent at RB, experienced WR/OL. They have on e of the better P5 DLs that goes 8-10 deep without much dropoff. Defense should be much improved.

Other picks:
UCLA o5.5
ODU o5.5
UL Monroe +1200 to win Sunbelt
Georgia +225 to win SEC
Texas +250 to win B12
Utah +1500 to win P12
Stanford +450 to win P12
ODU +4000 to win CUSA
LT +1000 to win CUSA
SD State +250 to win MWC
Miami )OH) +600 to win MAC
Miami +300 to win ACC
Temple+2500 to win AAC
Navy +800 to win AAC

Utah o7.5 wins
UTSA u5 wins
Tennessee u5.5 wins
LT o7 wins
Georgia Southern o5.5 wins (-210)
Colorado State o5.5 wins
Charlotte u3.5 wins
BC o6.5 wins
Auburn o9 wins
Arkansas o5.5 wins
 
Thanks guys! Its always hard to find out what a team has through camp, but I follow as much as anyone can.

ODU's going to rely on the running game this year and I think they have a very legitimate run game. THis kid Strong looks like a monster. I think most CUSA teams are going to really have to gameplan against the DL because it's that good and that typically throws things off. I like this team a lot if they get anything from the QB.
 
Still kinda in shock at the moment and trying to come up with an idea on what I think may happen vs. FIU. The number 1 problem with picking unders with ODU is if they get behind, the games going over because they (as much as any team) are aggressive...going for 4th downs, fake punts, etc. They turn what should be 1-2 score games into 3-4 score games (or occasionally get back in the game).

I thought the Monarchs played ok for the first almost 3 quarters. A rough first drive and then a fake punt put them behind, but they battled back to get to 14-10. (though 3 different drives the QB missed wide open WRs for touchdowns that turned into a total of 3 points). The QBs accuracy was as bad as I've ever seen. Then after almost 3Q, the team just went in the tank and the scoring didn't stop.

This is something I'm trying to wrap my head around. Can the team finish drives?

1st and 10 from the Liberty 29
1st and 10 from the Liberty 39
TD
1st and 10 from the Liberty 24
1st and 10 from the Liberty 16
1st and 10 from the Liberty 36
1st and 10 from the Liberty 43
1st and 10 from the Liberty 46

Thats 8 of the 11 or 12 drives in the game. They scored a total of 10 points out of those 8 drives.
 
Was hopeful that year 2 for Williams would mean improvement. But maybe he isn't capable?
 
1st and 10 from the Liberty 29
1st and 10 from the Liberty 39
TD
1st and 10 from the Liberty 24
1st and 10 from the Liberty 16
1st and 10 from the Liberty 36
1st and 10 from the Liberty 43
1st and 10 from the Liberty 46

Thats 8 of the 11 or 12 drives in the game. They scored a total of 10 points out of those 8 drives.
Click to expand...


That is simply amazing ...
 
s--k said:
Was hopeful that year 2 for Williams would mean improvement. But maybe he isn't capable?
Click to expand...


I was cautiously optimistic. He's still very young (18) and showed much better command of the offense. He did well staying in the pocket and then picking his spots to run. He read the defense well and seemed to get the ball to the right receiver. But, the accuracy wasn't even in the right zip code. He has to take a major step up in that regard.

The running game is also a major concern. They should have run the ball much better. They are very deep at the position. Cox sprained his ankle and seemed to be a step slow and Strong got injured. But, thats not excuse, they have plenty of talented RBs and a veteran OL, they have to be able to run the ball vs. Liberty.
 
Sometimes these types of breakthrough or next step type years get hyped and expected and it's like "this is our year" "the pieces are in place" and for whatever reason it just doesn't pan out. I know this loss has been very hard for the fans and the program. One can only hope that the people on the team hits them hard as well and they want to still make this a season to remember. That was definitely one that got away. Not as easy as maybe myself or others expected with what that home game meant to Liberty's program, but still where ODU thinks they are and where they want to go, you have to beat Liberty. I still remain optimistic, but all of a sudden the FIU game is pretty critical.
 
Dollaz said:
Still kinda in shock at the moment and trying to come up with an idea on what I think may happen vs. FIU. The number 1 problem with picking unders with ODU is if they get behind, the games going over because they (as much as any team) are aggressive...going for 4th downs, fake punts, etc. They turn what should be 1-2 score games into 3-4 score games (or occasionally get back in the game).

I thought the Monarchs played ok for the first almost 3 quarters. A rough first drive and then a fake punt put them behind, but they battled back to get to 14-10. (though 3 different drives the QB missed wide open WRs for touchdowns that turned into a total of 3 points). The QBs accuracy was as bad as I've ever seen. Then after almost 3Q, the team just went in the tank and the scoring didn't stop.

This is something I'm trying to wrap my head around. Can the team finish drives?

1st and 10 from the Liberty 29
1st and 10 from the Liberty 39
TD
1st and 10 from the Liberty 24
1st and 10 from the Liberty 16
1st and 10 from the Liberty 36
1st and 10 from the Liberty 43
1st and 10 from the Liberty 46

Thats 8 of the 11 or 12 drives in the game. They scored a total of 10 points out of those 8 drives.
Click to expand...

Wow, that is crazy! Not sure if that makes me feel better or worse about my losing play on them last week though!
 
My apologies if the numbers have changed, but I put a few in.

ODU -2.5
Southern Miss +16
WV -3
Aub -10

ODU ODU ODU.........................where do I begin?

The team started amazing. Came out fired up and where owning the game. Its really the little things killing them right now. Up 17-0 late in the 2Q and its 3rd and 10 rom midfield and the corner thinks there in zone coverage and lets a wide on WR get past him. Team does respond with a solid FG drive leaving 3 mins on the clock. FIU is driving and ODU gets a huge sack or a loss of 15 yards, but a nickelback was offsides (WTF?) The next play, another sack and this time a fumble which was on the ground forever and FIU recovers. Next play...TD.

Its mental errors with this team. I don't think they are far off from what I thought they were despite the horrific 2 weeks. Anytime the ODU passing game goes for 8.2 ypa, 2 TD, and 0 INT, they have to win the game.

I was not impressed with FIU in the very least. The OL is extremely weak and the QB was all over the place. They have a nice stable of running backs though. Their DL is pretty stout, but the secondary is a train wreck. They are pretty much exactly what I thought they would be.

Charlotte is awful. They have possibly the worst secondary in college football. They will slow the ODU running game, but ODU should move the ball through the air. It is my opinion that the running game for ODU is due to poor running backs play so far (one is playing hurt, backup is out) and they are rotating in a couple really talented freshman this week so I will be interested in seeing if that makes any difference.

If this team is still "in it," they will go in and beat Charlotte pretty handily.
 
Dollaz said:
My apologies if the numbers have changed, but I put a few in.

ODU -2.5
Southern Miss +16
WV -3
Aub -10

ODU ODU ODU.........................where do I begin?

The team started amazing. Came out fired up and where owning the game. Its really the little things killing them right now. Up 17-0 late in the 2Q and its 3rd and 10 rom midfield and the corner thinks there in zone coverage and lets a wide on WR get past him. Team does respond with a solid FG drive leaving 3 mins on the clock. FIU is driving and ODU gets a huge sack or a loss of 15 yards, but a nickelback was offsides (WTF?) The next play, another sack and this time a fumble which was on the ground forever and FIU recovers. Next play...TD.

Its mental errors with this team. I don't think they are far off from what I thought they were despite the horrific 2 weeks. Anytime the ODU passing game goes for 8.2 ypa, 2 TD, and 0 INT, they have to win the game.

I was not impressed with FIU in the very least. The OL is extremely weak and the QB was all over the place. They have a nice stable of running backs though. Their DL is pretty stout, but the secondary is a train wreck. They are pretty much exactly what I thought they would be.

Charlotte is awful. They have possibly the worst secondary in college football. They will slow the ODU running game, but ODU should move the ball through the air. It is my opinion that the running game for ODU is due to poor running backs play so far (one is playing hurt, backup is out) and they are rotating in a couple really talented freshman this week so I will be interested in seeing if that makes any difference.

If this team is still "in it," they will go in and beat Charlotte pretty handily.
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Do I still like ODU since they moved the game from Saturday to Thursday? Do u think the over is better play? How fast can college kids recover from 4 days rest? Would fatigue be an issue? Thanks
 
number2 said:
Do I still like ODU since they moved the game from Saturday to Thursday? Do u think the over is better play? How fast can college kids recover from 4 days rest? Would fatigue be an issue? Thanks
Click to expand...

Saturday to Thursday isnt ideal but I dont think its too terribly bad. And ODU is the deeper team.

I think the time change helps ODU as the weather wont be as much of an issue. Im hearing they are going ro play some young RBs that Im excited to see.
 
Doesn't look like weather will be a big issue in Charlotte today. Which is a bit surprising since its hammering me right now!
 
Good times tonight on Hampton Roads.

Now keep playing like that the rest of the year!
 
ECU-thoughts...no plays as of now.

We all know the trap aspect of this game so that is a major consideration. Ignoring that.....

ECU has had a 100+ yardage advantage in every game, including games vs. UNC and USF. It looks like they are a methodical offense/stout defense.

They average 435 yards per game, but only 4.8 yards per play 41 rushes, 50 passes. 3.6 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass. They only complete 53% of their passes. On defense, they allow 320 yards per game on 5.3 yards per play. They give up 4.1 yards per rush on 29 carries and 6.5 yards per attempt on 58%.

They are averaging 91 plays per game and allowing 60. Trying to find 3rd down conversion numbers. ECU must be dominating them.
 
ECU is converting 45.3% 3rd down (mid-pack AAC) and only allowed 28.5% (best in AAC).

It is hard to not give last week's VT win a ton of consideration. It's like, are they going to just be happy now, like season is done, they came what they set out to do this year, beat VT. I know how hyped that game was this offseason. In a way, I felt the loses and poor games we were seeing was because the home VT game was just overshadowing everything through camp and adversely effected the teams prep and performance vs teams ODU should've beat, or atleast competed better against.

Your take?

Unfortunately I've bet ODU in every game this year and own that RSW over ticket as well. If they play the way I thought they could when I bet over 5.5 I see no problem with them beating an improved ECU team. But now the massive upset of VT is just clouding my vision on them and how to value them going forward. I'm sure I will bet ODU this week, it is just a matter of how much, a typical throw away wager just to have it if they cover, or something more meaningful and rewarding should they win outright.

I look forward to your thoughts.
 
s--k said:
ECU is converting 45.3% 3rd down (mid-pack AAC) and only allowed 28.5% (best in AAC).

It is hard to not give last week's VT win a ton of consideration. It's like, are they going to just be happy now, like season is done, they came what they set out to do this year, beat VT. I know how hyped that game was this offseason. In a way, I felt the loses and poor games we were seeing was because the home VT game was just overshadowing everything through camp and adversely effected the teams prep and performance vs teams ODU should've beat, or atleast competed better against.

Your take?

Unfortunately I've bet ODU in every game this year and own that RSW over ticket as well. If they play the way I thought they could when I bet over 5.5 I see no problem with them beating an improved ECU team. But now the massive upset of VT is just clouding my vision on them and how to value them going forward. I'm sure I will bet ODU this week, it is just a matter of how much, a typical throw away wager just to have it if they cover, or something more meaningful and rewarding should they win outright.

I look forward to your thoughts.
Click to expand...


Thanks for your thoughts. I have been high on this team the entire year and I think not only was I flabbergasted by the 0-3 start, but the coaches were as well. The coaches were in complete shock and I say that genuinely g from people within the program. There has been some arguing, but the players got together for a meeting last week just to say shut up and listed to the coaches.

I don't want to make excuses and I don't know if it even had an affect, but each of the first 3 games were impacted by weather. The first week was delayed an hour or so so I don't think there was a huge impact. Week 2 was finished at about 1 in the morning after a long halftime delay and the team came out flat in the second half. Week 3 was a trainwreck as the team didn't find out they were playing Thursday until Wednesday morning/afternoon.

So, the coaching staff seems to be focusing on explaining that they don't want to be a 1 win team this year. My hope is the team is still pissed about starting 0-3 and comes out prepared on Saturday. This is the trappiest of all trap games.

Talent wise, this team is one of the more talented CUSA teams. Experience all over the place and possibly the best pass rushing DL in G5. I worry about strong running teams that can control the clock (FIU), but I don't think ECU fits.

Not sure I will have a play. Still reading the tea leaves this week to get a feel for the mindset.
 
Thanks Dollaz!

Running game and receivers should be a strength with this O. Just never had reliable QB play to make it all work. Wonder what LaRussa does off the best game he will ever have in his life!?

OLD-ECU could be one of the better games Saturday. Just fearful ODU reverts back to their former self which was bad. And ECU being expected to win...ECU hasn't been a favorite vs FBS since 2016 when they were -7 home vs SMU and lost 55-31.
 
Dollaz said:
Thanks for your thoughts. I have been high on this team the entire year and I think not only was I flabbergasted by the 0-3 start, but the coaches were as well. The coaches were in complete shock and I say that genuinely g from people within the program. There has been some arguing, but the players got together for a meeting last week just to say shut up and listed to the coaches.

I don't want to make excuses and I don't know if it even had an affect, but each of the first 3 games were impacted by weather. The first week was delayed an hour or so so I don't think there was a huge impact. Week 2 was finished at about 1 in the morning after a long halftime delay and the team came out flat in the second half. Week 3 was a trainwreck as the team didn't find out they were playing Thursday until Wednesday morning/afternoon.

So, the coaching staff seems to be focusing on explaining that they don't want to be a 1 win team this year. My hope is the team is still pissed about starting 0-3 and comes out prepared on Saturday. This is the trappiest of all trap games.

Talent wise, this team is one of the more talented CUSA teams. Experience all over the place and possibly the best pass rushing DL in G5. I worry about strong running teams that can control the clock (FIU), but I don't think ECU fits.

Not sure I will have a play. Still reading the tea leaves this week to get a feel for the mindset.
Click to expand...

THIS

Here we go ODU
 
I couldn't pass up 7 when it hit 7. I will take the points and my lumps if they completely shit the bed in a trap game.

Way too many plays for me:

ODU +7 (prolly hit ML right before game )
Buffalo -7.5
Cuse/Clemson o 65.5
UMASS +13.5
UCF -13.5
Nevada +5
Washington -17
Southern Miss +27
Iowa State +10.5
WVA -3.5
WVA/TT o72.5
North Texas -7
UAB -16.5
Coastal Carolina +14
FAU -3
Michigan -14.5
 
Don't have a writeup yet, but going through numbers, I was shocked how bad FAU defense is. I know playing Oklahoma factors in, but thats offset by bethune. They also played MTSU and UCF. So, I think it's safe to say their defense is pretty bad. With how their defense is, i'm shocked at them being a 15 point fave. Going to dig deeper and may look into the over, but gut says take the points. The problem is ODU hardly ever loses and covers.
 
Their defense has taken a step back and certainly cannot be considered good but I might not call them bad just yet.

How good do you consider ODU at stopping the run? RB Singletary is maybe the best RB in the nation right now (at least in the conversation) and he is a tough tackle.
 
Dollaz said:
Don't have a writeup yet, but going through numbers, I was shocked how bad FAU defense is. I know playing Oklahoma factors in, but thats offset by bethune. They also played MTSU and UCF. So, I think it's safe to say their defense is pretty bad. With how their defense is, i'm shocked at them being a 15 point fave. Going to dig deeper and may look into the over, but gut says take the points. The problem is ODU hardly ever loses and covers.
Click to expand...
Appreciate the thoughts as always
 
RetroVK said:
Their defense has taken a step back and certainly cannot be considered good but I might not call them bad just yet.

How good do you consider ODU at stopping the run? RB Singletary is maybe the best RB in the nation right now (at least in the conversation) and he is a tough tackle.
Click to expand...

ODU cannot stop the run without selling out.

The reason I said there defense is bad is I was comparing their numbers to ODU and their numbers look worse (somehow)! They are giving up 6.6 yards per play; 5 yards per rush; and 67% passing and 9 yards per passing attempt. Obviously SOS has to factor in.

Last year FAU ran for 453 yards on 69 carries. (ODU ran for 248 on 36). Singleray ran for 194, Driskel ran for 92, and Howell ran for 109. Even with FAU offense, ODU is right in that game without 4 turnovers as Cos ran for over 200 and they just kept throwing picks at the wrong time.

The difference this year is a few things.........Robison is not a running threat; he will get a few on read options, but he's not a guy you have to specifically game plan for. And his passing leaves something to be desired. It may allow ODU to sell out a little more on stopping Singletary; who I agree is an awesome back. (Though, I was shocked to see he's only got 4.1 ypc this year) FAUs defense last year would give up a ton, but make a crucial interception at the right time. I just don't think that is sustainable.

Still digging in.
 
My plays:

USF -7
Duke +120
Hawaii +11
New Mexico -110
UAB -16.5
Southern Miss +9.5/+295

ODU/Marshall:

ODUs offense has come together the past couple weeks, but they still are having trouble running the ball. Marshall, historically, gives us all kinds of fits. Marshalls offense is not very good so if ODU can slow anyone down, it might be Marshall. They pass for 6.6 ypa and get sacks on 2 times per game. They only run the ball for 3.7 ypa. Cant say they've played great defenses as a hole and Marshall has been a fade team for me from before the season started.

Still, ODU is so inconsistent game to game; quarter to quarter. I wanted a couple more points to pull the trigger on the home dog. I think ODU can move the ball through the air on Marshall, but Marshall is going to get after the QB at times and make it difficult.

I would avoid this game. I could see almost anything happening here.
 
Odu loses, doesnt cover, and over. Never fails. All u have to figure out is if they win straight up.
 
Don't see much at first look.

ODU +5 @Western Kentucky. WKY really screwed the pooch with this hiring. He took a good CUSA squad and has broken the team apart. Manhandled by Charlotte? ODU is all over the board, but a piss poor running game may save them. They are slowly getting something of a running game, but what has held them back is the inability to stop the run. They keep getting into games late 3Q/early 4Q only for a big run to do them in. Don't know that WKY has it in them. And if I'm taking ODU, Im also taking the ML.

UAB. I think UAB is the better team here and are at home.

Charlotte +17. Yeah, I don't really like Charlottes coaching staff, but they got something with this new QB (and the backup, it appears). They have played good ball the past 3 weeks. MTSU is not a good team, IMO, and they rely on Stockstill to do everything (he's injured). Unsure if he's going to play, but line says he will. I like the Charlotte side either way, but if Stockstill is out, there is no way Charlotte is +17.

I will be on Marshall at some point. Sitting out waiting to see if FAU gets some steam. FAUs defense is not good enough to be laying points on the road.
 
UNLV +10
Miss State +6.5
Kent State +5
Miami (OH) +7.5
Buff -1
Marshall +3
Memphis +9.5
NC State +17.5
 
The facemask on the return by Harper...just unreal

I mean even for ODU to get the tie before all that other craziness. Gotta love CFB baby!!!!!!!!!!
 
toledo +6.5
Minny +2.5
Wyoming +1.5
Wisky -6.5
UMASS -5
Oregon St +24.5
UNLV +3
Okie State +3.5
Iowa +6.5
Arky +1.5
Texas Tech +3.5
 
B.A.R. said:
That is simply amazing ...
Click to expand...

You think thats amazing, do ya?

1-10 at MTSU 11 ....FG
1-10 at MTSU 17....fumble
1-goal at MTSU 2...MTSU TD return
1-10 at MTSU 24....turnover on downs
1-goal at MTSU 5...TD
1-goal at MTSU 8....Fumble
1-gaol at MTSU 1....end of game


12 drives.

2 punts
2 TDs
2 INT returned for TDs
4 other times inside the MTSU 10 yard line with 3 total points.
2 other times inside the MTSU 20 yard line with 0 points

Out of 12 drives, they punted in own territory twice and threw 1 pick. In other 9 drives, they were deep into MTSU territory with 17 total points.
 
Not often you see somebody lose by 34 yet have a 520-488 yard edge. 2 of 7 in the red zone.

Had to be brutal to watch, you go to all the games?
 
s--k said:
Not often you see somebody lose by 34 yet have a 520-488 yard edge. 2 of 7 in the red zone.

Had to be brutal to watch, you go to all the games?
Click to expand...


99% of them. The INT at the goal line with the chance to get within 7 at half and getting the ball back and instead going in down 21 was the game changer. BUt, the offense looked great, just couldn't finish drives. Crazy to think a team should have won the game that they lost by 34, but it was stupid.
 
Eastern Mich -13.5
Old Miss Pk
Texas St +5.5
South Bama +14.5
WVA +2
UMASS -1.5
VT +2
NW +10
Washington -10
 
Feel less confident against North Texas than I did VPI.

Can ODU win? Very slight chance, imo. In that case, the fave and the over hit at an incredibly high rate. Im just on the over.
 
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