GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
2017 PREAKNESS
POST TIME: 6:48 EST
For those of you who are new to my threads, when it comes to horse racing and handicapping, you have to have the right mindset. The number one pitfall in handicapping horse racing is that you are not looking for the horse that is necessarily the most likely to win. Rather, you are looking for the horse that offers the best value. It sounds simple but it isn’t. Even for me, sometimes it’s like me putting a bowl of food in front of my dog and telling him not to eat it.
Since I am fairly well known as a recreational baseball handicapper, let me break it down this way. If the best pitcher in baseball, let’s use Clayton Kershaw, and the Dodgers were at home facing the worst team in the majors, let’s go with San Diego, using their worst pitcher, let’s go with the human piñata, Jered Weaver, you wouldn’t need to know much about baseball to determine the Dodgers are likely to win.
Now if I told you the Dodgers were EVEN money in that matchup, you might run to the bank, take cash advances on your credit cards and run to bet the Dodgers. Now, lets be crazy. Let say the Dodgers were -700 and SD was +650. Now SD is looking a bit more attractive. There is some point in the line where the Dodgers don’t make sense anymore and SD does and it’s probably a lot less than my fictitious -700/+650.
So now to the Preakness. ALWAYS DREAMING might not be Kershaw but he is the most likely winner and will be the heavy favorite. However, the value in the race lies in several other solid contenders offering tasty odds.
Throw in that ALWAYS DREAMING, while impressive in the Derby, avoided all trouble and had an easy trip while others didn’t. Also throw in that these horses are young three year olds and coming back off a two week rest is quite demanding and several horses in here are fresher and weren’t in the Derby. So already, you can see that ALWAYS DREAMING is no lock.
I'm not saying take my word as final word. There are several different scenarios that could unfold and below is a detailed analysis with some video clips.
Let’s look at the field:
#1 MULTIPLIER - Took three races to get his first win and didn’t look that spectacular and then exploded in last winning the Illinois Derby with an outstanding trip. The Illinois Derby hasn’t proven to be an excellent prep for the Triple Crown races and while his win in the ID was impressive, he would need to vastly improve yet again to contend here for top honors. I say he’s not fast enough. Bottom of superfecta ticket at best.
#2 CLOUD COMPUTING - A bit of an intriguing wild card with just three career races. Won his maiden race at 6 furlongs and immediately stepped up three weeks later stretching out in the Gotham with a solid 2nd. He showed good early speed and made a move into a fast pace and fought strongly to the wire. Five weeks later in the Wood Memorial, he broke out of the gate last on a day where early speed had a huge bias. He still ran a very credible race with a very solid sheet number that if he duplicates it, would strongly contend here. There’s a little concern in his last two that he shows that he was bearing in and bearing out in the stretch but he comes in off 6 weeks rest and has a chance. Chad Brown, despite not having Triple Crown success, is an outstanding trainer, does well at Pimlico and jockey, Javier Castellano chooses this colt over Gunnevera today. He’s the “X” factor and it would be no surprise to see him having a huge impact on this race. Has a real chance.
#3 HENCE - Strong closer who will come from far back and charge late in a race not typically known for closers. Has raced at 5 different tracks. Came into the Derby off a nice win in the Sunland Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0HtHUgqwvE) in a race that set up nicely for a closer like him and bounced (regressed) a bit in the Derby. He has shown consistent development and an interesting pattern but off two weeks rest, while I expect a better race than in the Derby, I don’t think he can improve enough here to contend for top honors. One to sprinkle in on bottom of superfecta tickets but not on top of tickets.
#4 ALWAYS DREAMING - The most likely winner but a very poor Preakness investment. Derby winners are almost always over bet in the Preakness. While he looked spectacular winning the Derby, let’s remember that everything went his way and he avoided all trouble and traffic early on while many others were jammed up like the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles on a Friday afternoon at 3pm after several drivers were drinking margaritas all afternoon. Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his four races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming off short rest like this. Having said that, he should be very close to the early lead again today and should be able to avoid trouble but while, I am inclined to use him a bit on top, I will do my best to beat him. Obviously a strong contender but the value is in beating this vulnerable and heavy favorite.
#5 CLASSIC EMPIRE - Dominant last year in his two year old campaign. 5 wins in 8 career races. Scared the heck out of the racing community last year in the Hopeful when something happened at beginning of race and he tossed his rider and the horse had to be vanned off. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_RMce8NzGo). Thankfully, he bounced back with the addition of blinkers with an eye popping and exciting win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIqVGP5wdSU). If he runs like he did in the Juvenile, he will be really tough today. However, he hasn't shown the same form in some of his races at age 3. Something wasn't right in his first start in January and they found an abscess in his hoof two days after the race. He bounced back to win the Arkansas Derby in a race that many think was underwhelming although exciting. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7u3cP9PQYo). However, if you watch the beginning of the Derby (#14 end of inside gate), he was bounced around like a pinball and swallowed up like the Red Sea in the "Ten Commandments." Watch this head on view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaBd6fnt4eU - Even the track announcer mentions at the beginning of the race how bad the start was for Classic Empire and how great it was for Always Dreaming. According to Trakus, Classic Empire ran 75 feet farther than Always Dreaming and 90 feet farther than Lookin at Lee. He was severely impeded and cutoff and didn’t get to run his race, yet still was game in defeat, finishing 4th after being forced three and five wide. Classic Empire's trip during his Kentucky Derby included bobbling at the start and then being “hammered off stride,” as described in the official Equibase chart footnotes. Classic Empire came out of the race with an inflammation in his right eye and cuts on his face, and jockey Julien Leparoux found himself more than 10 lengths off the pace, when the plan was to be up close. READ THESE COMMENTS: “I watched the replay a couple of times,” trainer Mark Casse said. “Initially I had blamed McCraken. And it probably was more Irish War Cry than McCraken. McCraken is who got us. Honestly, I think our horse probably got more respect out of that performance (from) anyone who really watched the race, because he overcame a lot just to finish fourth. I'm proud of him, and look forward to trying Always Dreaming again. Classic Empire is very fast. Our intentions were to be up laying close to the pace. In fact, I told Julien that I'd love to be able to get up and get over. Because I thought there was definitely an advantage to being inside. And 100 yards out of the gate, it was pretty well over, I thought. Now I do have to tell you that we did get a little bit excited about the half-mile pole, because he did start with a run. But the first part of the race was like, ‘Oh boy. And then (Sunday) Classic Empire could hardly open his eye. I don't know when that occurred, whether with all the bumping. First thing Julien said to me was, ‘I don't know how we didn't go down.' He said he really got hit hard. Anybody who has ever had the wind knocked out of him, you have to wonder about that as well. He has about four or five abrasions on his right front — one was pretty close to needing stitches. He's a warrior.” To say there is a reason Classic Empire only finished 4th in the Derby would be an understatement. My only hesitation is this is his 3rd race in 5 weeks. Still, he's my choice to win!
#6 GUNNEVERA - Had a really difficult trip in the Derby going 2 and 6 wide in turns and was a bit compromised. Strong closer from back of field. Not sure why they chose him to run here as personally I would have saved him for the Belmont where he would be one of my top choices with the longer distance and longer stretch run. Was awesome winning the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xZeidLp2fI) then dug himself too deep of a hole in the Florida Derby. Stone cold, dead closer who will be far back early. If he gets a fast early pace and can avoid traffic, he will be flying down the stretch in the end but the Preakness and this course are not a good match for this style. His figure in the Fountain of Youth is eye popping but may have taken something out of him. He is at the mercy of how the race unfolds. Jockey, Castellano chooses #2 instead but he picks up Hall of Famer, Mike Smith. Can’t toss out. Has the ability to run as well or better than anyone in here but just don’t think the race and course fits well here. Definitely could hit ticket but tough for me to use on the win end.
#7 TERM OF ART - A bit of a plodder. Was slow as 2 year old. Developed a bit as a 3 year old. Was soundly beaten in the Santa Anita Derby and has lost four in a row and was beaten by at least six lengths in all. Way too slow.
#8 SENIOR INVESTMENT - Has never faced Grade 1 competition. Broke through in his last with a new top figure. Another stone cold closer and he’s not as good as some of the other closers. Not completely horrible but not fast enough.
#9 LOOKIN AT LEE - He got into the Derby because two horses ahead of him in rankings dropped out. Then he threw in an outstanding ground saving performance to finish 2nd in the Derby at 33-1. Gritty horse who has run back to back top numbers in his career, Has lost to Classic Empire 3 times. I really think the 2nd place finish in the Derby is a bit skewed. He avoided all trouble, saved ground on the inside and found a seam to make a late run while others had a lot of trouble. He won’t have as cushy a trip here from the outside but this horse does have some ability. He’s not completely out of the question, but I don’t think his style, post position or sheet numbers give him a good chance here. For me, a bottom of the ticket thought at best.
#10 CONQUEST MO MONEY - Has never been worse than 2nd. Began his career with three consecutive wins, all at Sunland Park with speed figures that were underwhelming. Was a game 2nd to Hence in the Sunland Derby and then was super game to the wire beaten in last jump by Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. Has shown versatility of being on the lead or stalking mudpack although there’s a chance he will be on the early lead today. His 6th race so far in 2016, more than anyone else in here despite skipping the Derby but comes in on 5 weeks rest. Definitely has a shot to wire the field. I will use him somewhat in the mix.
ANALYSIS:
Should be an interesting race. This race is typically not won by horses near the back of the pack early on but if they go too fast early and tire out, one never knows. Regardless, there are a bunch of closers in here, who I think are a bit compromised. I still think CLASSIC EMPIRE is the best horse in this race. Seeing everything that occurred in the Derby, reading about it and knowing this horse was the champion two year old in this class makes me think he is the one to beat and he has more value than ALWAYS DREAMING. My only hesitation about CLASSIC EMPIRE is the fact that it’s his 3rd race in 5 weeks. I still like him the best. You have to use ALWAYS DREAMING in the exotic mix but CLOUD COMPUTING and CONQUEST MO MONEY are contenders that offer tremendous value. If the race falls apart upfront early due to a speed duel, GUNNEVERA has a shot and he still needs to be thrown into exotic bets.
#5 CLASSIC EMPIRE
#2 CLOUD COMPUTING
#4 ALWAYS DREAMING
#10 CONQUEST MO MONEY
#6 GUNNEVERA
POST TIME: 6:48 EST
For those of you who are new to my threads, when it comes to horse racing and handicapping, you have to have the right mindset. The number one pitfall in handicapping horse racing is that you are not looking for the horse that is necessarily the most likely to win. Rather, you are looking for the horse that offers the best value. It sounds simple but it isn’t. Even for me, sometimes it’s like me putting a bowl of food in front of my dog and telling him not to eat it.
Since I am fairly well known as a recreational baseball handicapper, let me break it down this way. If the best pitcher in baseball, let’s use Clayton Kershaw, and the Dodgers were at home facing the worst team in the majors, let’s go with San Diego, using their worst pitcher, let’s go with the human piñata, Jered Weaver, you wouldn’t need to know much about baseball to determine the Dodgers are likely to win.
Now if I told you the Dodgers were EVEN money in that matchup, you might run to the bank, take cash advances on your credit cards and run to bet the Dodgers. Now, lets be crazy. Let say the Dodgers were -700 and SD was +650. Now SD is looking a bit more attractive. There is some point in the line where the Dodgers don’t make sense anymore and SD does and it’s probably a lot less than my fictitious -700/+650.
So now to the Preakness. ALWAYS DREAMING might not be Kershaw but he is the most likely winner and will be the heavy favorite. However, the value in the race lies in several other solid contenders offering tasty odds.
Throw in that ALWAYS DREAMING, while impressive in the Derby, avoided all trouble and had an easy trip while others didn’t. Also throw in that these horses are young three year olds and coming back off a two week rest is quite demanding and several horses in here are fresher and weren’t in the Derby. So already, you can see that ALWAYS DREAMING is no lock.
I'm not saying take my word as final word. There are several different scenarios that could unfold and below is a detailed analysis with some video clips.
Let’s look at the field:
#1 MULTIPLIER - Took three races to get his first win and didn’t look that spectacular and then exploded in last winning the Illinois Derby with an outstanding trip. The Illinois Derby hasn’t proven to be an excellent prep for the Triple Crown races and while his win in the ID was impressive, he would need to vastly improve yet again to contend here for top honors. I say he’s not fast enough. Bottom of superfecta ticket at best.
#2 CLOUD COMPUTING - A bit of an intriguing wild card with just three career races. Won his maiden race at 6 furlongs and immediately stepped up three weeks later stretching out in the Gotham with a solid 2nd. He showed good early speed and made a move into a fast pace and fought strongly to the wire. Five weeks later in the Wood Memorial, he broke out of the gate last on a day where early speed had a huge bias. He still ran a very credible race with a very solid sheet number that if he duplicates it, would strongly contend here. There’s a little concern in his last two that he shows that he was bearing in and bearing out in the stretch but he comes in off 6 weeks rest and has a chance. Chad Brown, despite not having Triple Crown success, is an outstanding trainer, does well at Pimlico and jockey, Javier Castellano chooses this colt over Gunnevera today. He’s the “X” factor and it would be no surprise to see him having a huge impact on this race. Has a real chance.
#3 HENCE - Strong closer who will come from far back and charge late in a race not typically known for closers. Has raced at 5 different tracks. Came into the Derby off a nice win in the Sunland Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0HtHUgqwvE) in a race that set up nicely for a closer like him and bounced (regressed) a bit in the Derby. He has shown consistent development and an interesting pattern but off two weeks rest, while I expect a better race than in the Derby, I don’t think he can improve enough here to contend for top honors. One to sprinkle in on bottom of superfecta tickets but not on top of tickets.
#4 ALWAYS DREAMING - The most likely winner but a very poor Preakness investment. Derby winners are almost always over bet in the Preakness. While he looked spectacular winning the Derby, let’s remember that everything went his way and he avoided all trouble and traffic early on while many others were jammed up like the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles on a Friday afternoon at 3pm after several drivers were drinking margaritas all afternoon. Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his four races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming off short rest like this. Having said that, he should be very close to the early lead again today and should be able to avoid trouble but while, I am inclined to use him a bit on top, I will do my best to beat him. Obviously a strong contender but the value is in beating this vulnerable and heavy favorite.
#5 CLASSIC EMPIRE - Dominant last year in his two year old campaign. 5 wins in 8 career races. Scared the heck out of the racing community last year in the Hopeful when something happened at beginning of race and he tossed his rider and the horse had to be vanned off. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_RMce8NzGo). Thankfully, he bounced back with the addition of blinkers with an eye popping and exciting win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIqVGP5wdSU). If he runs like he did in the Juvenile, he will be really tough today. However, he hasn't shown the same form in some of his races at age 3. Something wasn't right in his first start in January and they found an abscess in his hoof two days after the race. He bounced back to win the Arkansas Derby in a race that many think was underwhelming although exciting. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7u3cP9PQYo). However, if you watch the beginning of the Derby (#14 end of inside gate), he was bounced around like a pinball and swallowed up like the Red Sea in the "Ten Commandments." Watch this head on view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaBd6fnt4eU - Even the track announcer mentions at the beginning of the race how bad the start was for Classic Empire and how great it was for Always Dreaming. According to Trakus, Classic Empire ran 75 feet farther than Always Dreaming and 90 feet farther than Lookin at Lee. He was severely impeded and cutoff and didn’t get to run his race, yet still was game in defeat, finishing 4th after being forced three and five wide. Classic Empire's trip during his Kentucky Derby included bobbling at the start and then being “hammered off stride,” as described in the official Equibase chart footnotes. Classic Empire came out of the race with an inflammation in his right eye and cuts on his face, and jockey Julien Leparoux found himself more than 10 lengths off the pace, when the plan was to be up close. READ THESE COMMENTS: “I watched the replay a couple of times,” trainer Mark Casse said. “Initially I had blamed McCraken. And it probably was more Irish War Cry than McCraken. McCraken is who got us. Honestly, I think our horse probably got more respect out of that performance (from) anyone who really watched the race, because he overcame a lot just to finish fourth. I'm proud of him, and look forward to trying Always Dreaming again. Classic Empire is very fast. Our intentions were to be up laying close to the pace. In fact, I told Julien that I'd love to be able to get up and get over. Because I thought there was definitely an advantage to being inside. And 100 yards out of the gate, it was pretty well over, I thought. Now I do have to tell you that we did get a little bit excited about the half-mile pole, because he did start with a run. But the first part of the race was like, ‘Oh boy. And then (Sunday) Classic Empire could hardly open his eye. I don't know when that occurred, whether with all the bumping. First thing Julien said to me was, ‘I don't know how we didn't go down.' He said he really got hit hard. Anybody who has ever had the wind knocked out of him, you have to wonder about that as well. He has about four or five abrasions on his right front — one was pretty close to needing stitches. He's a warrior.” To say there is a reason Classic Empire only finished 4th in the Derby would be an understatement. My only hesitation is this is his 3rd race in 5 weeks. Still, he's my choice to win!
#6 GUNNEVERA - Had a really difficult trip in the Derby going 2 and 6 wide in turns and was a bit compromised. Strong closer from back of field. Not sure why they chose him to run here as personally I would have saved him for the Belmont where he would be one of my top choices with the longer distance and longer stretch run. Was awesome winning the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xZeidLp2fI) then dug himself too deep of a hole in the Florida Derby. Stone cold, dead closer who will be far back early. If he gets a fast early pace and can avoid traffic, he will be flying down the stretch in the end but the Preakness and this course are not a good match for this style. His figure in the Fountain of Youth is eye popping but may have taken something out of him. He is at the mercy of how the race unfolds. Jockey, Castellano chooses #2 instead but he picks up Hall of Famer, Mike Smith. Can’t toss out. Has the ability to run as well or better than anyone in here but just don’t think the race and course fits well here. Definitely could hit ticket but tough for me to use on the win end.
#7 TERM OF ART - A bit of a plodder. Was slow as 2 year old. Developed a bit as a 3 year old. Was soundly beaten in the Santa Anita Derby and has lost four in a row and was beaten by at least six lengths in all. Way too slow.
#8 SENIOR INVESTMENT - Has never faced Grade 1 competition. Broke through in his last with a new top figure. Another stone cold closer and he’s not as good as some of the other closers. Not completely horrible but not fast enough.
#9 LOOKIN AT LEE - He got into the Derby because two horses ahead of him in rankings dropped out. Then he threw in an outstanding ground saving performance to finish 2nd in the Derby at 33-1. Gritty horse who has run back to back top numbers in his career, Has lost to Classic Empire 3 times. I really think the 2nd place finish in the Derby is a bit skewed. He avoided all trouble, saved ground on the inside and found a seam to make a late run while others had a lot of trouble. He won’t have as cushy a trip here from the outside but this horse does have some ability. He’s not completely out of the question, but I don’t think his style, post position or sheet numbers give him a good chance here. For me, a bottom of the ticket thought at best.
#10 CONQUEST MO MONEY - Has never been worse than 2nd. Began his career with three consecutive wins, all at Sunland Park with speed figures that were underwhelming. Was a game 2nd to Hence in the Sunland Derby and then was super game to the wire beaten in last jump by Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. Has shown versatility of being on the lead or stalking mudpack although there’s a chance he will be on the early lead today. His 6th race so far in 2016, more than anyone else in here despite skipping the Derby but comes in on 5 weeks rest. Definitely has a shot to wire the field. I will use him somewhat in the mix.
ANALYSIS:
Should be an interesting race. This race is typically not won by horses near the back of the pack early on but if they go too fast early and tire out, one never knows. Regardless, there are a bunch of closers in here, who I think are a bit compromised. I still think CLASSIC EMPIRE is the best horse in this race. Seeing everything that occurred in the Derby, reading about it and knowing this horse was the champion two year old in this class makes me think he is the one to beat and he has more value than ALWAYS DREAMING. My only hesitation about CLASSIC EMPIRE is the fact that it’s his 3rd race in 5 weeks. I still like him the best. You have to use ALWAYS DREAMING in the exotic mix but CLOUD COMPUTING and CONQUEST MO MONEY are contenders that offer tremendous value. If the race falls apart upfront early due to a speed duel, GUNNEVERA has a shot and he still needs to be thrown into exotic bets.
#5 CLASSIC EMPIRE
#2 CLOUD COMPUTING
#4 ALWAYS DREAMING
#10 CONQUEST MO MONEY
#6 GUNNEVERA
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