2017 Dollaz Thread

Dollaz

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I really don't have much time, but figured I would pop in as best as I could.

My picks for week 1 with little writeups (Sorry?)

Colorado State -3.5
FIU +17
Marshall pk
Cal +11
lsu -12
aUBURN -35
Georgia -14
Houston -12.5
South Carolina +6

Basic thoughts- I like CSU a lot this year. FIU will be slightly improved and have some experience. Marshall quit last year, they aren't as bad as they were. LOVE Auburn this year. Really don't buy the UTSA hype. South Carolina saw big improvement with Bentley at QB and he's a year experienced getting almost a TD against an ACC school
 
As for ODU. It really all depends on the QB. Wilder has shown an ability to develop QBs and they are having a 4 way battle.

5-10 190 pound redshirt soph Larussa is the leader right now. Small guy, but mobile. Will be the guy that probably doesn't hurt the team and utilizes the running game.
Hoy- JUCO guy that came in hyped, but not sure he's ready
Arnold- Redshirt Freshman. Has talent, smaller guy, but not sure he's game ready just yet.
Williams- True Freshman. The most talent on the roster and probably the future QB of the team, but I would hate to see him in as a true freshman on a loaded team. Might be needed, but that remains to be seen.

ODU returns almost everybody of importance except the QB. Great RB duo (and some studs behind them waiting). Solid WRs with great size and talent behind them as well. Young OL, but experienced from last year. Good talent at TE. I think the offense should be fine, even with the new QB. They will be able to move the ball on the ground and utilize great size at WR/TE.

They have the best DL in CUSA, imo. They have 4 DEs that are very good pass rushers and good size in the middle. New to replace LBs, but that really doesn't scare me. They have 3 star guys ready to take that spot and they play 4-2-5. Almost everyone is back from a decent secondary last year. Pretty deep at that spot.

They will be very good at pass rushing. Run defense might be a bit behind. Defense will probably outperform the offense this year unless the QB really plays well.

I expect something like 7-5. Losses to WKY, UNC, VT. Probably a loss to MTSU. Should be easy wins vs. Rice, Albany, Charlotte. Should have wins @UMASS, FAU, @FIU. 50/50ish @Marshall, @North Texas.

Overall, I expect them to be in the 75-95 range. If they are effective passing the ball, they will compete for the CUSA title, but I'm a bit nervous about that at this point.
 
ODU -19.5 large bet. This is the best roster ODU has had. Only question mark is QB and Ive heard good things. ODU should have huge advantage with their DL vs Albany OL. On the other side, Albanys DL is extremely small. I dont expect a huge aerial day, but Lawry and Cox may combine for 250+ yards. Albanys running back is out (best player). I cant see Albany scoring a ton and ODU getting scores on the ground, turnovers, special teams. If Larussa is half decent at QB, its a blowout. Also, Hoy should give them a running threat at QB if things with Larissa are off.
 
Would like to play under but I cant touch 53. ODU may be able to score 35+
 
Usually like to add stats and stuff but pointless. I bet last weeks game with a 10% chance of rain a couple hours before game. It then goes on to pour from about midway thru 1st quarter on. Conditions were just miserable. I can only take so much from last week.

Larussa was ok; 3 bad throws but almost everything was so safe. Running game was off; partially because Lawry broke open a 40 yard td run then tweak hammy (expect him to play). With weather they just kept him out. Offensive line was big diappointment, but it was a unit I thought would play well so no panic.

Defense was as good as expected. 7 sacks on a team that was trying to get rid of ball quick. A little more rushing success than I wanted to see but much against number 2/3 defenders as they rotated 54 players through game to get experience. I think that gets narrowed down this week.

UMASS is a team ODU should beat but Im not sure what to take from last week. UMASS has looked awful though. I took oDU early at -2 and feel good at playjng at a FG or less. Prolly would pass if -4 is best number.
 
Going back, I may have been a bit harsh on the performance of ODU's starting QB, LaRussa. I guess with the turnovers and rain, it really seemed like he was less productive than he actually was.

LaRussa- 39 plays-302 yards; 7.74 yards per play, 3.88 points per possession
Hoy- 17 plays- 21- 21 yards; 1.23 yards per play, 0 points per possession


LaRussa also had the chance for a 60 yard touchdown on the first possession that ended up in a punt. It went directly through his hands and he walks into the end zone. That would have been 5 TDs, 1 short FG, 2 turnovers in 8 possessions.

1- LaRussa- 3 plays-punt (dropped prolly TD) 1 yard
2- 2 plays- INT- 1 yard
3- 3 plays-TD-48 yards
6- 3 plays- TD- 41 yards
8- 13 plays-TD-45 yards
9- 11 plays- FG-77 yards
11- 2 plays-INT-14 yards
12- 2 plays TD- 75 yards

8 possessions; 2 INTs, 4 TDS, FG, 1 Punt. Punts probably should have been TD.

Hoy
4- 5 plays- 25 yards- fumble
5- 3 plays- 6 yards-punt
7- 3 plays- 7 yards-punt
10- 3 plays-punt- minus 20 yards
11- 3 plays- punt-3 yards

5 possessions- 21 yards; 4 punts and a fumble.
 
Nothing really new. ODU preparing for much improved UMASS yada yada yada. The one thing I would eyeball is whether the TE from Penn State is healthy. If he plays, he's going to give ODU all kinds of fits, if he doesn't, they may struggle to move the ball a bit. He is a matchup nightmare vs. inexperienced linebackers (or anyone really). Lawry is a GT decision; I suspect he plays but I have no inside knowledge. I sit right behind the bench and I think he could have gone back in last week.

I got the worst of some numbers, but here is what I have:

NW -3
Auburn +6
Buff +16.5
Iowa -2
Wake +1.5
FAU over 60.5
UNC over 63.5
MTSU over 74.5
Oklahoma +7.5
 
Eyeing Georgia too. That is a team I am very high on. Frohm wasn't super impressive to me last week, but I don't think he has to be great.
 
Illinois +17
Tulane +34
La Tech +7
Georgia Tech -1.5


Been semi-impressed/surprised with Illinois on the young season. Think Lovie builds a non embarrassing type football program. 17? That is inflated, imo.

Tulane- couple things really. There is no better spot here than what we have. Tulane is can grind out the clock by running the ball and Oklahoma can sleep through a 3 td win.

Western Kentucky looks like a completely different team with the new coach. Their DL cannot block anyone and LT will get after the QB.

Georgia Tech- I'm on the fade UCF train and all I need is Georgia Tech to win (more than likely)? Sign me up.
 
If you doubt that Saturday is ODU’s best chance of toppling a Power Five, consider Vegas. The Monarchs have been at least 15.5-point underdogs in all but one of their Power Five games. The outlier was Vanderbilt, a 7-point favorite at home late in the season.

As of Wednesday, ODU was a 7.5-point pup to North Carolina, and three years after that 42-28 loss at Vandy, Wilder’s squad is bigger, stronger, deeper and playing at home.

Turns out Wilder pays attention to the betting line, too, and here’s why.

Driven by data, Wilder subscribes to Championship Analytics, a service that produces a weekly booklet teeming with strategy suggestions rooted in the statistical trends of the Monarchs, their opponents and college football overall.

Go for it on fourth-and-3 from midfield? Fake, rather than attempt, a 49-yard field goal? The booklet has an answer.

Knowing Wilder’s devotion to the numbers, I asked if he’s likely to push the envelope even further against a Power Five opponent. That’s when he mentioned the point spread.

“The analytics start with the Vegas line,” he said. “I can’t believe I’m a college coach saying this, but they start with the line, and the more of an underdog you are, the more aggressive they want you to be. Do not be conservative when you’re an underdog because you have to do something in the course of the game to change the game. And it always goes back to momentum. You have to do something to create momentum.

“Now when you’re at home, hopefully your crowd’s into it, you create momentum, those type of things. But whether it’s a fake punt, an onside kick … we have to do something to disrupt the flow of this game. … Somehow you’ve got to steal a possession. Whatever the line is, that’s how many possessions you have to steal to be successful. So if we’re a 7-point underdog, we gotta steal at least one. … If you’re a two-touchdown underdog, you gotta figure out a way to steal two.”

Whether as underdog or favorite, Wilder believes an ODU victory over a Power Five opponent is inevitable. But there’s no timetable.
 
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Everything I cap with says ODu/UNC is an under play today but 54.5 is pretty low. Here the problem with it; if ODU goes down a couple scores, Wilder does not play it safe/keep it out of hand type ball. You will see onsides kicks, 4th down tries, all out blitzes, whatever. This typically works the opposite with the fave covering and going over. I cant think of many unders against P5 teams bc of this.

This is also a pretty mediocre offense (Larussa has moved the ball much better) so maybe hes a litte less inclined.

Lean over because of this but probably no play unless it keeps dropping.

BOL!
 
Yeah those comments related to the spread and his team are interesting...just to know what goes on in their heads and how they approach it from a planning perspective when every other coach gives the same line about spreads and none of it mattering or knowing what they are all about. Atleast in public. I guess I have heard some other coaches comment about being this or that spread underdogs. Would be a totally different matter if a coach of a favorite was talking about planning related to laying chalk.

Was interested in UNC at a shorter number, now just interested to see how it unfolds. P5 at small schools is always cool. That stadium will be packed! What was the highest attended game there?
 
s--k said:
Yeah those comments related to the spread and his team are interesting...just to know what goes on in their heads and how they approach it from a planning perspective when every other coach gives the same line about spreads and none of it mattering or knowing what they are all about. Atleast in public. I guess I have heard some other coaches comment about being this or that spread underdogs. Would be a totally different matter if a coach of a favorite was talking about planning related to laying chalk.

Was interested in UNC at a shorter number, now just interested to see how it unfolds. P5 at small schools is always cool. That stadium will be packed! What was the highest attended game there?
Click to expand...

Every home game they have ever played has been sold out ~21,000. Think most butts in seats (besides early days) is probably NC State 2 years ago.

Surprisingly, today may be the first non sellout in history. Its close.
 
OdU has lost RT, and two best players on offense; Lawry and Duhart. Both are probably out for the year.

Burned a redshirt for freshman QB that is clearly best option; even at 17 years old. Hes talented but first start will be at Lane Stadium.....yikes.
 
Played these last night:

ODU +26
Wake -4
Indiana -23
Georgia -6.5
Texas State +14

Waiting on a couple others to see if the line move where I want it to.
 
Dont have much. Seems like a couple guys back for ODU and a little more practice dor freshman QB. I would take points.

This seems like every other year. Beat low level FBS/FCS teams and get dominated by P5. I think FAU is a bit overvalued here and I expect ODUs defense to play well. Run defense concerns me.

ODUs offense is major concern. Kinda interested to see how young QB does against CUSA foes.

Not a strong play but def taking points. I have +5 and +3.5.
 
Thoughts for ODU vs WKU Friday?

Wondering how you evaluate the FAU and Marshall games in terms of what could happen here? See the FAU game was just 10pts in the 3rd qrt and they couldn't stop the rush. WKU can't run. And ODU O seemed to have some things going in that game. Then against Marshall, played a pretty darn good first half vs them, but couldn't keep it going in the second half. WKU appears to be so far and away from what we have come to expect from that team, up until last week it was a weekly occurrence of WTF is WKU doing this year. I'm thinking they are beatable. Think ODU can pull it off?
 
Man, I've been so inconsistent on getting in here.....

I've been wracking my brain over this game. I'm having a hard time figuring out what we have with ODU this year. I still think the defense is good enough to compete, but they keep A) Falling apart in the 2nd half and B) Giving up 50 yard runs on 3rd and long. They also are not helping themselves with turnovers at all....the opposite of what helped them last year. Vs. Marshall ODU was by far the better team in the first half:

12 play 55 yard drive that ends in a dropped pass in the end zone that bounces to a defender for an INT.
Marshall 3 play punt
ODU 9 play 34 yard drive
Marshall 6 plays 16 yards
ODU 3 and out
Marshall 3 and out
ODU 10 plays 65 yards...dropped pass in end zone and settle for FG
Marshall 7 play 65 yards missed FG
ODU 3 and out
Marshall 6/76 TD

Competitive first half. ODU missed chances and probably could have been up by a score or 2 but keep shooting themselves in foot. Then the 2nd half just falls apart.

The offense just doesn't do enought to keep the defense off the field and the defense eventually just falls apart.

On the other side, WKY has not been good this year and then they come out vs. Charlotte and look like WKY of old. 34 first downs 637 yards. Besides the FCS game, it is the first game all year that WKY even outgained the opponent!

So how does that matchup end up?

WKY is a strong passing team that cannot run the ball. This does fit into ODU's strength on defense as they average 3.3 sacks per game and WKY gives up 2.8 sacks per game. WIll ODU's run defense let them break out? On paper, the WKY offense is the type of offense that ODU should perform well on defense against.

On offense, if they could just get some semblance of a passing attack, it would open so much up on the run game. This is a strong running team when teams can't put 8 in the box. Lots of issues in the passing attack, the WRs are not doing anything and the QB is a freshman at 17 years old. Just not a recipe for success.


I honestly believe this game comes down to if ODU can just make 1-2 big plays on offense. Williams hitting one deep pass or Lawry breaking out for a couple of his long TD runs that we are used to. The WKY version we have seen before Charlotte is there for the taking.

I don't have a ton of confidence in the play, but I'm going to take the points and put a little bit on the ML. This is more line value to me than anything bc I don't think WKY warrants being a double digit favorite on the road.
 
Thank you very much. I had been aware of WKU's struggles, but had not noticed last week was the first time they outgained a IA team!

I am going to take a chance on ODU. Just added to my college shirt collection, tomorrow is a good time for the first wearing of my Monarchs shirt!
 
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