2016 Velocity Changes (brought to you by Jeff Zimmerman)

Pelfrey throwing batting practice.

Most of the analysts doing Price's games have said he's down a tick, and the hitters have told you that. Great stat line last night, though.
 
np, Tip. I have never in my life tinkered with a 'system', but may run a trial the rest of the season fading SPs who are showing a consistent decline in fb velocity if the situation lines up right. I dunno, may strictly go the 1st 5 route to eliminate the bullpen factor. If you have any suggestions, shoot.

fellas, utilize the dates at the bottom of the google doc to see all the pitchers.
 
Last edited:
Good Info.

One thing I noticed though about velos is it seems like a lot of the softer throwing guys dont get hit as hard lately. maybe its just my imagination I dont know if anyone else is noticing it but I would think it would be harder to get a higher exit velocity off the ball from a guy throw 85 mph than a guy throwin 95 mph. sure its easier to make contact but making hard contact is something else. just my 2 cents. anyone have any data to support/refute this?
 
DapperDan said:
Good Info.

One thing I noticed though about velos is it seems like a lot of the softer throwing guys dont get hit as hard lately. maybe its just my imagination I dont know if anyone else is noticing it but I would think it would be harder to get a higher exit velocity off the ball from a guy throw 85 mph than a guy throwin 95 mph. sure its easier to make contact but making hard contact is something else. just my 2 cents. anyone have any data to support/refute this?
Click to expand...

In my experience soft tossers tend to have better secondary stuff and prefer to pitch backwards in counts (pitching off their offspeed stuff instead of off their fb... in other words, flashing that fb as a 'show me' pitch rather than trying to work ahead with it). Some guys are just simply blessed with that natural armside run on their two-seamer, which can be based on a variety of different factors such as arm slot, arm action, size of hands/grip, pressure on the seams etc. If a soft tosser is showing a decline in fb velocity, then it's going to be more difficult to sneak that fastball by as a 'show me' pitch in certain counts. You just have to familiarize yourself with how they like to pitch, pitch strengths (values), spin rate, 2/4 seam fastballs, LD contact, swing & miss rate, groundball/flyball %s etc when incorporating velocity decline.

Personally, I believe there's a hard hit correlation between pitchers who throw a high percentage of 4-seam fastballs and are showing a decline in velocity (this is because a lot of high % 4-seam guys work that pitch up in the zone to induce flyballs outs. A good example is Mike Fiers, who was a teammate of mine in college -- those extra tics of velocity mean the world to him: http://disciplesofuecker.com/2015-outlook-fastballer-mike-fiers/22041

Fiers induces flyball outs working 89-90 with that str8 over-the-top deceptive delivery, but when he starts dipping to 86-87, those flyballs will turn into home runs very quickly. Keep in mind, Fiers also likes to work in a cutter.

With that in mind, Mat Latos, imo, will be a good fade next time out. He throws a heavy 4-seam fastball about 60% of the time, and has been showing a consistent decline in velocity resulting in a lot of hard hit contact lately.

There are going to be a lot of different ways to skin this thing; I've been simply using the doc as just another capping tool for myself when it comes to analyzing pitchers.

Hope that helps a little bit.
 
np guys.

Here's one to note for tomorrow:

Baltimore's Kevin Gausman was only sitting 90.7 @ MIN last time out coming off a very efficient/low stress 98-pitch outing vs NY -- down 2.7 from his April velocity -- but despite dip in velocity was able to compile a season-high 9 strikeouts @ MIN. Gausman throws 62% 4-seam fastballs and is sporting a stellar 7.9 FB pitch value. I actually watched his start vs the Yankees, and his split-finger was unhittable. I've also noticed he's gone to more of a slurve this year. Dip in velocity @ MIN could be weather related (mid-50s that night), or it could be attributed to the spike in splitters (this pitch can be hard on your elbow depending on how you throw it). Wouldn't suggest a fade, but something to monitor tomorrow vs DET.
 
I faded Smyly tonight (wager was placed before the Tor/Tex brawl happened) as I believe like he's entering a stage of arm fatigue. Smyly fits the bill as someone who throws a good amount of 4-seam fastballs (50%) in which he likes to works up in the zone with, and in return, gets a high percentage of flyballs on contact. He's basically whiffing you with his curve or getting you to chase that 4-seamer up in the zone. In other words, he does a great job at changing the eye level of the hitter. It appears Smyly has scrapped his 2-seamer for a higher % of cutters and is flashing the change piece at a higher percentage this season.

Blue Jays are seeing Smyly for the third time this season, so big advantage to the Jays and their RHHs (that is if Joey Bats plays; could see Gibby give him the night off after yesterday) in that park if Smyly comes out throwing 87-88 instead of 90-91.
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
I faded Smyly tonight (wager was placed before the Tor/Tex brawl happened) as I believe like he's entering a stage of arm fatigue. Smyly fits the bill as someone who throws a good amount of 4-seam fastballs (50%) in which he likes to works up in the zone with, and in return, gets a high percentage of flyballs on contact. He's basically whiffing you with his curve or getting you to chase that 4-seamer up in the zone. In other words, he does a great job at changing the eye level of the hitter. It appears Smyly has scrapped his 2-seamer for a higher % of cutters and is flashing the change piece at a higher percentage this season.

Blue Jays are seeing Smyly for the third time this season, so big advantage to the Jays and their RHHs (that is if Joey Bats plays; could see Gibby give him the night off after yesterday) in that park if Smyly comes out throwing 87-88 instead of 90-91.
Click to expand...
Bautista, in the starting lineup tonight.
 
Smyly back up a tic, but something just doesn't seem right with him. Even the play-by-play guys were saying he looked tentative and appeared to be short-arming the baseball in that first inning. Overall Smyly walked four vs TOR (had eight all season coming into that one) and surpassed the 100-pitch mark through just 5 ip... should have been five walks, but Tulo got hosed on a low strike-3 looking call which resulted in both he and Gibby getting tossed. Smyly was working behind the count all night, but was staked nine runs early and danced around the free passes. Will continue to monitor him.

Fading Latos tonight.. reasoning in post 8. Fiers on deck.

Doc updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...v13lgW3fCeKaoMtG2av2jGWlE/edit#gid=1461943971

FB Velo diff from Apr to 5/16-5/17 w/ '15

C Rodon +2.2
Eickhoff +1.5

Salazar -1.3
 
Can offer an explanation on Salazar. Well, more of a theory. He walked a ton of guys in his previous start at Houston, the day-game, 16-inning marathon. I'm sure control and location were a point of emphasis between starts. But probably more importantly, he never really had to dial it up yesterday. Never had a stressful inning, Tribe was up 7 after the 4th inning, Reds never really threatened, he was up 12 runs by the time he was lifted.

Stating the obvious, I start to consider playing against these guys when their velocity is down AND they're getting hit hard.

Thanks, grinder.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Can offer an explanation on Salazar. Well, more of a theory. He walked a ton of guys in his previous start at Houston, the day-game, 16-inning marathon. I'm sure control and location were a point of emphasis between starts. But probably more importantly, he never really had to dial it up yesterday. Never had a stressful inning, Tribe was up 7 after the 4th inning, Reds never really threatened, he was up 12 runs by the time he was lifted.

Stating the obvious, I start to consider playing against these guys when their velocity is down AND they're getting hit hard.

Thanks, grinder.
Click to expand...

Good stuff, Tip.

I think Salazar would fit my criteria as someone to fade when his velocity is starting to show a consistent decline along with a rise in hard-hit contact as I recall him throwing a high percentage of four seamers. Haven't taken a look at his heat map lately, but believe a good amount of the home runs he allowed in the past were on four-seamers up in the zone. And obviously losing a couple tics on the fastball could potentially take a little deception away from his elite changeup.
 
Grind, Stipe's been making the rounds around town last few days, local TV, Cavs game, Tribe game. Clubbed a HR at Progressive Field in BP. New local hero.
 
should be noted Price has thrown 33.5% two-seamers compared to 13.1% four-seam fastballs so far this season, which imo, partially explains why he's still been able to have success these last couple outings despite the dip in velocity. Price is not a fade candidate because of his low percentage of four-seamers thrown.
 
doc updated...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v20HLgUOFkeBsmQY8Rv13lgW3fCeKaoMtG2av2jGWlE/edit?usp=sharing

Papelbon -2.5
Harvey -2
Stripling -1.4

I faded Harvey last night since he meets my criteria (54.7% 4-seamers thrown), but was a bit wary to make a strong recommendation in this thread since his fastball showed signs of life topping out at 97 in SD back on the 8th. That said, Harvey has re-solidified himself on my fade list after last night, and will look to fade him again in his next start at Washington.

fading Fiers tomorrow, fwiw.

Current fade list:
Latos
Harvey
Fiers

Monitoring:
Smyly
Gausman
 
Joe Ross' fastball velocity has declined of late, but Ross does not qualify for my fade list since he throws a high percentage of sinkers (55.5%), fwiw
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
doc updated...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v20HLgUOFkeBsmQY8Rv13lgW3fCeKaoMtG2av2jGWlE/edit?usp=sharing

Papelbon -2.5
Harvey -2
Stripling -1.4

I faded Harvey last night since he meets my criteria (54.7% 4-seamers thrown), but was a bit wary to make a strong recommendation in this thread since his fastball showed signs of life topping out at 97 in SD back on the 8th. That said, Harvey has re-solidified himself on my fade list after last night, and will look to fade him again in his next start at Washington.

fading Fiers tomorrow, fwiw.

Current fade list:
Latos
Harvey
Fiers

Monitoring:
Smyly
Gausman
Click to expand...


Good thread; I'll try to contribute when I can. Mets manager has not ruled out skipping Harvey's next start, for whatever that's worth.

Also, Salazar was the first pitcher in Cleveland's franchise history to go eight straight starts with four hits or less allowed - then I guess the scorer decided to give a Cincy guy a hit and switcherooed the box. I missed it, but his hits allowed now, from start of season, is 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5... He had 195/53 K-to-BB ratio last year, but it's just 61/23 so far through now. Might want to keep an eye on spots to beat him soon before we lose the price. He gave up 23 homers last year and just two so far this season. Numbers will likely rise there as well, unless someone can find a reason and tell me in here why not.

:shake:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top