CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
In 2007, the last time the U.S. Open was played at Oakmont Country Club just outside of Pittsburgh, there were a total of EIGHT rounds played under par-70 for the week. Angel Cabrera’s winning score of 5-over par was one better than Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk.
The course looks different this time but only because a bunch of trees that bordered the Pennsylvania Turnpike have been leveled. There is an absence of water and trees but Oakmont will look AND play like a links course that the designer envisioned when it opened in 1904. The abundance of sand traps and fast and undulating greens will ensure that scoring is still going to be difficult.
There will be blind tee shots and approaches and greens tilt away from fairways on many holes. The undulations on the green and slick poa annua will result in numerous three-putts this week. I’m looking for players who can avoid the rough, whose length isn’t the most important thing and who have enough mental strength to overcome a bad hole by not turning it into two bad holes.
Fuzzy Zoeller won the Masters in his first attempt in 1979 – that hadn’t been done in the modern era. But no one hears much about Francis Ouimet – he was the last golfer to win the U.S. Open on his first try, in 1913. That is good enough for me to scratch out a good number of the 156 golfers who tee off on Thursday when it comes to my betting odds-to-win. Simply put, draw a line through the virgins.
Without further ado, here’s what I am looking at when trying to make money this week.
To win the tournament:
I am going against each of the world’s top three players. Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth have combined to play zero competitive rounds here. Despite winning five of the last seven majors between them, I have zero faith that things will come easier for them this weekend than to others with experience here. And the value is just not there at the world’s best offshore sportsbook, with none of the three fetching more than 9-to-1 at any of my best-funded outs. So that leaves…
Dustin Johnson, 14-to-1. He’s finished in the top 10 in five of the last 10 majors, with a tied-4th and tied-2nd in this event the last two years. He also finished with a 63 on Sunday in Memphis at the TPC Southwind and should have all the confidence in the world after leading late at Chambers Bay last year before a late spit-out. He mauls the ball yet keeps it in the fairway. My top choice, worthy of a 1.0 unit play.
Adam Scott, 33-to-1. I was the first to discard him and all others who were “cheating” by using the belly putter for many years. Yet Scott actually improved once forced to go back to putting naturally, and he has a lot of positives coming in. He keeps it in play and caddy Steve Williams had Tiger’s bag in 2007 and knows the course. Another top choice, and also worthy of 1.0 units.
Sergio Garcia, 45-to-1. Is in any discussion for best player to have never won a major, but he’s made 14 of 16 cuts in this event primarily because he keeps the ball in play and leads the tour in greens-in-regulation. Putting is a concern but it will be difficult for everyone here this week. His last US Open missed cut came here in 2007, which inflates the price. Worth a 0.5 unit play.
Louis Oosthuizen, 66-to-1. His current form is suspect, but there is a lot to like here. He also was struggling entering the 2015 US Open yet closed with 66-66-67 to tie for second behind Spieth. He has made the cut in his last nine majors and hits it straight. He also won the British Open on a daunting links track by a mile and has also been a runner-up in that event. Playing with Day and Scott could bring out the best in the South African. Also for 0.5 units.
J.B. Holmes, 80-to-1. He was the medalist here in the 2003 U.S. Amateur on the heels of a 70 at Oakmont. This is his first Open here, but he tied for fourth at the Memorial last out and could contend. This is for 0.25 units to win 20.
Gregory Bourdy, 400-to-1. I’m not sure what to make of a guy who fires his longtime caddy after finishes in the top 15 or better in each of his last three events but this is a guy worth a look at an outlandish price, regardless of who’s on the bag. Just 0.2 units here to win 80.
Matchups:
These are the ones that I went biggest on. I have six or eight others for less than 1 unit just to have something to sweat and prove that the 20 hours or so of work I did on this event are compensated with some beer money when it’s all said and done.
7014 Mickelson vs. Rose – This is a Rose fade, as I try to bet against injured players. Rose has had a balky back that has kept him on the sidelines since the Players Championship. Phil usually competes but spraying the ball all over the yard gives him no chances to show off his recovery skills. Still, at even money or better (I got +105), it is worth 1.5 units.
7029 Scott vs. Watson – I get to fade Bubba AND bet on Scott, so this is my favorite investment. Bubba has not finished better than tie-32 in the last five years and is only priced this way thanks to a tie-5th at this venue in 2007. He loathes this setup because he can’t bomb away and be erratic because of the unforgiving rough. An easy lay at -120 for 2.5 units, my biggest play.
7055 Oosthuizen vs. Schwartzel – I like Oostie to contend to win, and am bearish on his countryman. Schwartzel missed the cut at the Masters but has played better of late. Still, value lies with the British Open winner. Take even money if you can’t do better than my +105 for 1 unit.
7072 Grillo vs. Lee – Not betting Grillo to win the event; this is his first US Open. But think he can win this matchup based on making nine of the 10 last cuts, competitive at the Memorial and strikes the ball well enough to hover on the leaderboard. I took +115 for 1.5 units.
7096 Streelman vs. Kizzire – Not fond of the latter, and Streelman bagged another top-10 two weeks back when tying for 8th at the Memorial. Taking even money there for 1.2 units seemed like I was getting the best of it.
7079-80 Haas vs. Kirk – No play here, but it goes to show just how much these matchmakers know about this stuff. I had penciled in plays AGAINST BOTH GUYS this week, only to horrifyingly find them matched up together. All I could do was laugh. Check Chris Kirk’s twitter account exactly one year ago and two years ago for why I wanted to go against him – it’s worth the time to find him badmouthing the USGA last year. Haas has missed more cuts than he’s made in this event and has not finished better than tie-43rd in any of these lesser Tour events the last month.
Might add some more later, GL...
:shake:
The course looks different this time but only because a bunch of trees that bordered the Pennsylvania Turnpike have been leveled. There is an absence of water and trees but Oakmont will look AND play like a links course that the designer envisioned when it opened in 1904. The abundance of sand traps and fast and undulating greens will ensure that scoring is still going to be difficult.
There will be blind tee shots and approaches and greens tilt away from fairways on many holes. The undulations on the green and slick poa annua will result in numerous three-putts this week. I’m looking for players who can avoid the rough, whose length isn’t the most important thing and who have enough mental strength to overcome a bad hole by not turning it into two bad holes.
Fuzzy Zoeller won the Masters in his first attempt in 1979 – that hadn’t been done in the modern era. But no one hears much about Francis Ouimet – he was the last golfer to win the U.S. Open on his first try, in 1913. That is good enough for me to scratch out a good number of the 156 golfers who tee off on Thursday when it comes to my betting odds-to-win. Simply put, draw a line through the virgins.
Without further ado, here’s what I am looking at when trying to make money this week.
To win the tournament:
I am going against each of the world’s top three players. Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth have combined to play zero competitive rounds here. Despite winning five of the last seven majors between them, I have zero faith that things will come easier for them this weekend than to others with experience here. And the value is just not there at the world’s best offshore sportsbook, with none of the three fetching more than 9-to-1 at any of my best-funded outs. So that leaves…
Dustin Johnson, 14-to-1. He’s finished in the top 10 in five of the last 10 majors, with a tied-4th and tied-2nd in this event the last two years. He also finished with a 63 on Sunday in Memphis at the TPC Southwind and should have all the confidence in the world after leading late at Chambers Bay last year before a late spit-out. He mauls the ball yet keeps it in the fairway. My top choice, worthy of a 1.0 unit play.
Adam Scott, 33-to-1. I was the first to discard him and all others who were “cheating” by using the belly putter for many years. Yet Scott actually improved once forced to go back to putting naturally, and he has a lot of positives coming in. He keeps it in play and caddy Steve Williams had Tiger’s bag in 2007 and knows the course. Another top choice, and also worthy of 1.0 units.
Sergio Garcia, 45-to-1. Is in any discussion for best player to have never won a major, but he’s made 14 of 16 cuts in this event primarily because he keeps the ball in play and leads the tour in greens-in-regulation. Putting is a concern but it will be difficult for everyone here this week. His last US Open missed cut came here in 2007, which inflates the price. Worth a 0.5 unit play.
Louis Oosthuizen, 66-to-1. His current form is suspect, but there is a lot to like here. He also was struggling entering the 2015 US Open yet closed with 66-66-67 to tie for second behind Spieth. He has made the cut in his last nine majors and hits it straight. He also won the British Open on a daunting links track by a mile and has also been a runner-up in that event. Playing with Day and Scott could bring out the best in the South African. Also for 0.5 units.
J.B. Holmes, 80-to-1. He was the medalist here in the 2003 U.S. Amateur on the heels of a 70 at Oakmont. This is his first Open here, but he tied for fourth at the Memorial last out and could contend. This is for 0.25 units to win 20.
Gregory Bourdy, 400-to-1. I’m not sure what to make of a guy who fires his longtime caddy after finishes in the top 15 or better in each of his last three events but this is a guy worth a look at an outlandish price, regardless of who’s on the bag. Just 0.2 units here to win 80.
Matchups:
These are the ones that I went biggest on. I have six or eight others for less than 1 unit just to have something to sweat and prove that the 20 hours or so of work I did on this event are compensated with some beer money when it’s all said and done.
7014 Mickelson vs. Rose – This is a Rose fade, as I try to bet against injured players. Rose has had a balky back that has kept him on the sidelines since the Players Championship. Phil usually competes but spraying the ball all over the yard gives him no chances to show off his recovery skills. Still, at even money or better (I got +105), it is worth 1.5 units.
7029 Scott vs. Watson – I get to fade Bubba AND bet on Scott, so this is my favorite investment. Bubba has not finished better than tie-32 in the last five years and is only priced this way thanks to a tie-5th at this venue in 2007. He loathes this setup because he can’t bomb away and be erratic because of the unforgiving rough. An easy lay at -120 for 2.5 units, my biggest play.
7055 Oosthuizen vs. Schwartzel – I like Oostie to contend to win, and am bearish on his countryman. Schwartzel missed the cut at the Masters but has played better of late. Still, value lies with the British Open winner. Take even money if you can’t do better than my +105 for 1 unit.
7072 Grillo vs. Lee – Not betting Grillo to win the event; this is his first US Open. But think he can win this matchup based on making nine of the 10 last cuts, competitive at the Memorial and strikes the ball well enough to hover on the leaderboard. I took +115 for 1.5 units.
7096 Streelman vs. Kizzire – Not fond of the latter, and Streelman bagged another top-10 two weeks back when tying for 8th at the Memorial. Taking even money there for 1.2 units seemed like I was getting the best of it.
7079-80 Haas vs. Kirk – No play here, but it goes to show just how much these matchmakers know about this stuff. I had penciled in plays AGAINST BOTH GUYS this week, only to horrifyingly find them matched up together. All I could do was laugh. Check Chris Kirk’s twitter account exactly one year ago and two years ago for why I wanted to go against him – it’s worth the time to find him badmouthing the USGA last year. Haas has missed more cuts than he’s made in this event and has not finished better than tie-43rd in any of these lesser Tour events the last month.
Might add some more later, GL...
:shake:
