2016-17 Fantasy QB Tiers

[Gorgolon Lives]

Updated on 8/6/16

QB Tiers

This is the deepest year for QB that I can remember. I have 12 rock solid QB1’s in the first two tiers (13 once Brady is eligible). 7 more match-up play QB1’s in Tier 3.

More than any other year, it makes sense to wait on QB for as long as possible. I probably won’t even look at the position until round 9. I’m also considering rostering 3 QB’s this year. My strategy at the position this year is a bit similar to my strategy at RB. Draft a few QB’s in the later rounds, play the matchups week to week, and hope one gets hot and eventually becomes an every week starter.

It’s probably a good idea to grab a young QB to pair with a consistent veteran. My favorite combo: Eli and Winston/Carr/Cousins.

TIER 1

Rodgers (Has elite weapons, especially if Jordy stays healthy. Addition of Cook just adds to the wealth. Run game question marks could lead to even more attempts. Other guys have caught up and he is no longer a consensus #1 QB overall.)

Wilson (Could finish #1 QB overall. Run game question marks should keep attempts high. Rushing TDs should increase from last season. 35 total TDs seems like a FLOOR for him. If Graham comes back strong, look out.)

Luck (Curve ball due to health. Potential keeps him in Tier 1. Still don’t think the O-line is very good.)

Eli (Elite weapons in the pass game. Run game concerns should keep attempts high. McAdoo is great for him. Had a great 2015, now add Sheppard and a fully health Cruz. I’m predicting 40 TD passes in 2016.)

Newton (Won’t repeat 45 total TDs. It’d be hard for me to take him #1 overall at the position.)

Big Ben (Has to stay healthy, but has the best WR in the league which opens things up for the rest of the passing game. TE Green could really help, too. Don’t sleep on the 2pt conversion points. It’s an added dimension that can help offset the INTs.)

TIER 2

Rivers (No signs of decline. The system he plays in helps.)

Bortles (Great weapons. Passing TDs could decline, but his running ability helps. Very high ceiling. 4,000 and 30 is probably the FLOOR. Could be Tier 1 after this year.)

Brees (Declining numbers are concerning, but a lock for 4,000 and 30 as long as he stays healthy. Big question mark given age, and he really needs to be backed up by someone solid.)

Brady (Suspended 4 games but should come back on a MISSION thereafter. I’m not afraid to draft him if the price is right. There are plenty of QBs who can fill in while he’s out.)

Palmer (Health always a question, but he has elite weapons. Incredible coach for the pass game. Emergence of David Johnson only helps open up the pass game.)

Carr (Should get to 600 attempts with the lack of running game. Improved defense might offset the attempts, but I’m not ready to crown them as elite just yet. He’s really cut down on the mistakes, and his WR corps is very good.)

Winston (Rushing ability helps the numbers. The ultimate competitor, I’m banking on him improving on last year’s numbers, which will very good for a rookie QB.)

TIER 3

Taylor (Small sample size keeps him out of tier 2, but he’s a QB1 in 12 team leagues. He might move up in my rankings as we get closer to the season. Injuries on offensive muddle his situation.)

Romo (Health is always a major concern, but should be QB1 while he’s in the line-up. Addition of Zeke should help him stay healthy with less attempts.)

Tannehill (Disappointed last year, but the yards were there. New coach should help him. Weapons are becoming elite, and the run game is shaky. So attempts should be high.)

Mariota (Wish coaches gave him the freedom that Carr has. Additions to run game will further limit him. Really a big question mark this year. Seems like he should be more relevant in fantasy rushing numbers. Maybe this is the year?)

Cutler (33 is not old nowadays for a QB. I think he can still take some steps forward this year with this WR corps.)

Cousins (A ton of weapons in the pass game. Small sample size scares me. But he’s an ideal QB2 with great upside.)

Dalton (Lost some weapons in the pass game, and lost a good QB coach in Hue. If Eifert can come back quick, he’ll be fine this year as a match-up QB1.)

TIER 4
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Ostweiler[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fitz[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stafford[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bridgewater[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Smith[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Flacco[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

No reason to analyze these guys. These are QB2’s. Brock is really the only one with upside, and he could eventually move to Tier 3. I’m not buying the Fitz-magic revival.

TIER 5
[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Goff[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jimmy Gar[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]P Lynch[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RG3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wentz[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Driskel[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I don’t see any rookie QB’s being fantasy relevant this year.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Questions, comments, thoughts are welcome.

I'll update these two or three more times before the start of the season.

 

[Tito]

I appreciate you getting these out Gorg, I saw the other post w how busy you are...thanks!

 

[ScopeY]

Like tito said, much appreciated :cheers3:

 

[Tide High]

I haven't dug into them but I probably won't put much time in it. I will have very similar tiers to you and I will be drafting a couple of the last ones off the board late. Eli I do agree on. That offense is by far the fastest in the league now and he will put up big numbers. Definitely targeting him if others are low on him, but not taking one until I have 4-5 WRs and 4-5 backs in any extra flex league.

 

[Tide High]

palmer should be a bigtime value as well. I see him improving on last year and he had like 35 pass TDs I think. to think he's 10 or worse on a QB board just means wait wait wait

 

[dylanphan]

A lot of QB ranking/tiering really has to do with your league size and scoring system tbh.
I do agree that this is a very deep year for QB's and there is probably not much difference between the #2/3 qb and the #7/8. So I am probably going to wait a while to get a QB and I'll probably get Brady in every league I can simply because I think when he comes back he is going to be fucking pissed. I may even grab him a round or two earlier than most, I don't care.

One thing I will say is I think Fitzpatrick is getting a bit overlooked at the 4th tier. He had a good first season with the Jets, comes back with basically the same offense, two 1,000 yard receivers, and oh, they add in one of if not the most prolific pass catching running backs in the off season. Honestly can see him putting up another big year, 4000+ yards, 30+ TD's.....just don't count on him in the playoffs and you'll have a solid starter there.

 

[jk16]

Thanks for giving your thoughts again this year Gorg. You've helped me a ton in the past. Good luck with your Dynasty league.

 

[IvyinBarondise]

I'm pretty shocked that you put Fitz in Tier 4 this season. He's got an elite WR core and now a back who loves to catch passes out of the backfield. He signed a one year contract and is playing for $$ all season long. How can you look at last season's production and feel that Fitz is a tier 4 QB. Esp. after adding additional offensive weapons that could prove to add to HIS counting stats?

I'm even more shocked you put Eli in tier 1...Shepard looks great in camp, but as good as he looks, Cruz looks god awful. I have a hard time believing Cruz will amount to much at all this season. I definitely believe that Eli can have a strong season but I don't see his overall value eclipsing Brees in anything other then draft position.

Brees is Brees. He's consistent. I think Cooks is primed for a breakout season. He makes WR's, they don't make him. Sure his TD production has taken a dip since he lost a few of his favorite redzone targets but his yards per game and volume cant be ignored.

I like your point about Ben this season. Again, IF he stays healthy. But 2 point conversions CAN offset SOME of the INTs, the delta could actually matter for one or two teams and Pitt is definitely one of them.

I disagree with your assessment of Wilson this season too. Graham is done. His WR core is chock full of guys I believe are in line for regression. I cant see him as the number 1 fantasy producer.


I think as far as tiers go, There is only one QB that belongs in the top tier this season. It's of course Rogers...again. There will end up being one or two guys to be up there with him at the end of the season, but as far as drafts go...tough to be the guy who spends a high draft pick for the second QB off the board. I mean I never draft a QB inside of the first 4-5 rounds anyways but I'll be happy to snag Brees in the beginning of the 5th rounds in 12-14 team leagues. If not, and this is where I agree with you...there are many options between 8-15th ranked QBs you can snag without spending much at all on QB this season and enjoy a very small negative delta in week-to-week performance vs your average opponent.


I also think this would be a perfect year to go b2b picks with QB in anywhere around the 7th and 10th rounds. Matchups for that massive highly productive tier could prove useful, not to mention...there will be a few surprises out of that group. A Palmer/Fitz/Romo/Cousins kinda b2b could prove more effective then spending a high round draft pick on a Russel Wilson for example.


Always love reading your stuff, keep it comin, lmk why you feel Fitz specifically was so low on your radar.

 

[KJ]

Not gorg but I automatically put Fitz down a bit because I instantly believe a Bowles coached team wins the 20-16 types and Fitz can absolutely do that 4th quarter thing, but I just can't see the number of plays being a positive for a good fantasy QB. I love Todd as a coach but fantasy production from QB would be very low on my radar compared to other teams.

And the Giants should throw at will...it's about the number of plays, they will throw a ton. It's another year of NFC East QBs being ranked high because of the defenses and types of games they'll play, that's they way I go into this.

 

[Lareux]

Cousins may end up being a Tier 1 QB this year, and more than likely should be a Tier 2 guy. I was listening to someone on the radio today (can't remember who it was) talking about him as a big sleeper this year as the Skins are supposed to be running an offense similar to the old run and shoot that Jerry Glanville liked to run. Light on the run, heavy on the pass...and they have 2 really good WRs there (with a rookie most likely the 3rd) and a TE that is top 3-5 in the league at his position.

 

[IvyinBarondise]

Not gorg but I automatically put Fitz down a bit because I instantly believe a Bowles coached team wins the 20-16 types and Fitz can absolutely do that 4th quarter thing, but I just can't see the number of plays being a positive for a good fantasy QB. I love Todd as a coach but fantasy production from QB would be very low on my radar compared to other teams.

And the Giants should throw at will...it's about the number of plays, they will throw a ton. It's another year of NFC East QBs being ranked high because of the defenses and types of games they'll play, that's they way I go into this.

Targets, number of plays, sure these are quantifiable and important. But there are too many undeniable play makers on the Jets and Fitz has too strong a rapor with his two best WRs to toss him all the way down in the bottom tier cmon.

Eli is a crazy hit or miss prospect this season. I guess my skepticism roots in my unwillingness to believe the Giants can stay healthy anymore. I guess we'll see.

 

[johnci]

Watched the NYG/BUF 1H today. Taylor looked really good. Crisp, on target, elusive, fast...he looked like a more accurate Vick in Vick's prime. He dropped a dime on Reggie Bush, 30 yards in the air that got punched out of his hands after he brought it in. I was already looking at Taylor with Watkins healthy, but I'm even more sure that I'll be passing on the big name guys in rounds 3-7 and trying to grab TT after 8.

Also think Luck will return to top 3 if he stays healthy. Progression and development of Moncreif and Dorsett is widely recognized and Gore remains a viable pass catcher out of the backfield. He has top5 weapons imo. Also think they wind up in shootouts fairly regularly.

 

[johnci]

Also- excited to see what old man Brees can do with his best TE option (Fleener) since Graham was healthy and in NO. Another top5 weapons QB.

 

[ScopeY]

Any additions Gorg?

Thanks for advice by others too.

Starting to round up and adjust my stuff, first draft of 7 starts this upcoming Sunday

Also any rb/wr/te thoughts?