2015 Team-by-team Niffel schedule observations...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Did this last year, and it was pretty helpful to me on more than one occasion. Hope y'all got something out of it as well.

As always, feel free to input anything you see. I was bored for much of the last 10-12 days so I spent about 45 mins to an hour on each division to knock this out a full month earlier than last year (please don't ask why I was bored. Yes I was working, no I'm not betting and no I do not want to talk about it).


NFC East

Dallas - The Cowboys play four of their six division games in the first half, including in each of the first two weeks. The Seahawks are sammiched in at home around at Giants/Philly after the bye. Letdown almost for sure coming in the two weeks after Philly, with two games in Florida (at Tampa, at Miami) before the Thanksgiving home game vs. Carolina. Dallas plays all eight road games east of town, with trips to the Saints and Packers being the only two games NOT in the Eastern time zone. As it stands, Dallas still is scheduled to play a whopping six games at 4:25/4:30 and at least four games at 8:30 (the Philly game at home can be flexed out, but the others are set).

Philly - The Eagles travel only 6,818 miles, least by anyone in the league. The trip to Dallas in fact, is the only one out of the Eastern time zone all year. They don't play back-to-back division games until the last two weeks of the season; even then, they have a scheduling edge. The Washington game is on a Saturday night and is the third straight home game in a row so they'll get an extra day to prep for the Giants. They open with three of four on the road but Chip Kelly has little if anything to complain about with this slate.

Giants - The Gmen play four of their first seven in the division; they have a NFCE game at the Skins after the bye and host Philly in the season finale. Unlike in many previous seasons, the Gmen must make hay early in 2015. The trickiest part of the slate starts with a MNF game at Philly on Oct. 19; it's the first of 3-of-4 on the road, with New England coming to town on Nov. 15 in their last game before the bye.

Washington - The Skins get the same favorable slate Philly does in terms of travel; they play at the Bears and Dallas only outside of EST zone. They travel the second-fewest miles of anyone. The league deemed them the most fit to get the schedule the Gmen usually get in the division this year; they'll play four of six against NFC East foes to end the season so they'll certainly control their own fate if they are .500 or better through 10 games. They also play three of four on the road to end the season, including at Philly/at Dallas.


NFC West

Seattle - The Seahawks play the first two on the road, three of four away from town before their Nov. 8 bye and two division games out of the bye and two more to end the season. They do host three in a row coming out of the bye (two in the division) and go five weeks between road trips until Dec. 6.

Arizona - Someone in the league office clearly doesn't want Arizona to be repeating their playoff trip. They have a stretch of six road games out of eight spanning Oct. 11-Dec. 6. The back end of that trip has them playing all three division foes on the road from Nov. 15-Dec. 6. Five of Arizona's eight road games are tentatively scheduled for 1 p.m. Eastern. In theory, they can also be flexed out of the 4:05 start on Oct. 11 against Detroit to an early game. The Cards get three of four at home to open and close the season; if they can survive through the Dec. 6 part of the schedule, they get Minnesota at home on a Thursday night (Dec. 10). All of the Thursday Night home teams should have a big edge, but this season there are actually games outside of the division so Arizona should have a big edge there if they're somewhat healthy.

St. Louis - The Rams play three straight home games late in the season before going to Seattle and San Fran to close the season. The Tampa Bay home game is another Thursday game where a NFC West team hosts an out-of-division foe, which should help (Dec. 17). It's their only scheduled prime time game, as well.

San Fran - The 49ers will largely have their fate decided in a five-game span from Oct. 22-Nov. 29 where they play four division games. Five of their eight road games are slated for 1 p.m. Eastern, so naturally that means they'll be doing some travelling. At 27,998 miles, they will travel four times farther than the Eagles do in 2015-16, and also top mileage in the league.


NFC North

Green Bay - Mike McCarthy won't be sending anyone at the league office flowers, either. The Pack would be well advised to make hay before their bye to wrap up October. They only play one game on the road before Nov. 1 after the season opener at Chicago. That Sunday night (tentatively, flex scheduled) game at Denver makes the first of six out of nine on the road before the Vikes visit Lambeau in the season finale. The Packers also play four division games in a row starting Nov. 15 (though two of them will be on back-to-back Thursdays so things should lighten a bit after Dec. 3). If you have a fantasy sweat, the two late trips sammiched around Christmas to Oakland and Arizona shouldn't hurt you weather-wise. Showing how popular the Packers are, they're slated for five night games and five 4:05/4:25 games despite being an "eastern" team.

Detroit - The Leos play three of their first four on the road but the trip to Seattle on Oct. 5 is the only Lion road game until a Nov. 15 trip to Green Bay that comes right after the bye. Unbelieveably enough, Detroit has three more home games in a row after that. The Lions play just two true road games from Sept. 21-Dec. 12. Detroit gets KC in an early London game that's a KC home game, helping out. Four of five are at home immediately before that Nov. 1 trip. Three of the last four are on the road but the division games are spaced out with only Oct. 18/25 home games against Chicago and Minny being back-to-back all season. The trip to San Diego for the season opener is the only late afternoon start all season. Not much for the brass to bitch about here.

Minnesota - The Vikes only play back-to-back road games once, with division trips to Detroit and Chicago coming Oct. 25 and Nov. 1. That comes in a stretch where they play just one home game from after week 3 until the Nov. 8 game against the Rams in week 9. They do travel to Arizona in a real bad spot on Thursday night in a non-division game, which is a huge disadvantage on paper. On the plus side, that's the only road trip after week 12 until the season finale at Green Bay.

Chicago - The Bears get three of four at home to open, though four of five are on the road after that (with the bye sammiched in after two roadies, things are eased a bit). They play the Thanksgiving night game at Green Bay, but outside of a trip to Seattle in September and a Monday night trip to Diego, all of their games are slated for 1 pm EST starts.


NFC South

Carolina - The Panthers have Philly, Indy and GB coming in back-to-back after a trip to Seattle following their bye. The competition level is ratcheted up there with them backing into the division. Then the schedule gets tough on its own; three games in 12 days in three cities follow the three-game homestand. The Thanksgiving game at Dallas is a terrible spot (Thursday day game on a short week at non-division foe), and it is the last game before the Panthers play four of their last five games in the division (the first two are Sept. 27 and Oct. 4, so they go more than two months without a divison game). No one except for Atlanta (see below paragraph), Oakland and San Diego play four of their last five games in the division. Clearly, they'll need to go into those games healthy and within an game or two (again?) of first by the time their game Dec. 6 kicks off at the Superdome.

Atlanta - The new Atlanta coaches won't be sending a thank-you card to the league office, either. The Falcons don't play a division game until Week 6; no one else waits that long. While that might be a positive, the Falcons play just four home games before Nov. 22 and then after two in a row, the league sends them out for three road games in a row, right in the midst of four division games out of five to end the season. The Falcons play the first MNF game of the year, the Oct. 15 division lidlifter at New Orleans on a Thursday and a trip to Frisco on Nov. 8. Every other game is slated to start at 1 p.m. EST.

New Orleans - After the season opener at Arizona, the Saints aren't slated to play any other games at 4:05. They've got two night games and everything else tentatively set for 1 Eastern. After week 1, the trip to Houston on Nov. 29 is the farthest west they go as well. Three of the last five games are in the division, so provided they've won six games or more by early December, they'll have it all to play for.

Tampa Bay - The Bucs play at Houston in Week 3, and will never go west of there all season. The division games are staggered with the exception of back-to-back home games Dec 6 and 13 against Atlanta and New Orleans. The trip to St. Louis on Dec. 17 is in a tough spot, with it being a Thursday non-division roadie. The Bucs also play back-to-back roadies three times, but the schedule is a far cry from 2014's fiasco.


Will be back to post the AFC shit in the next day or two in this thread; already did the notes but haven't gotten time to type any of it up on here yet.

:shake:
 
AFC East

New England - The Pats are slated to play five night games, with trips to Indy and Denver possibly getting flexed if any of the three teams are woefully underachieving. The Pats only play three road games before Nov. 15; they close with three of four on the road, including division games at the Jets and Miami - their other division road game is in week 2.

Miami - One more coach who won't be sending thank you notes to the schedule maker is Miami's guy. One of Miami's eight "home" games is in London this year, and to make matters worse, it's a division game against the Jets. The Fins close with four of their last five at home, so that means they only have two games in south Florida before the Cowboys come to town Nov. 22! Included immediately before the Dallas game are three straight road games, two in the division. Despite getting four of their last five at home, only one is in the division; the season finale against the Pats. The week 12 trip to the Jets is the last division game they play until that finale, and marks the eighth of 11 games they will have played away from home.

Buffalo - Conversely, the Bills get it real nice for Rex Ryan. They open with three of four at home and one of their road games is "at" Jacksonville in London. That means the Nov. 12 division game at the Jets (the second of three straight division games) in Week 10 is only their third true road game. They pay for it starting with that game, as five of their next six are true road games before closing with Dallas and the Jets at home.

Jets - The Jets play "at" Miami in London on Oct. 4 in their first division game. The Oct. 25 division game at the Pats in week 7 is just the second true roadie of the year for the Jets. Because they've only got seven road games, they only play back-to-back roadies once (at Pats, at Raiders Nov. 1). The Jets play on a Monday, a Thursday and a Saturday, the only AFC team to hold that distinction in 2015.


AFC West

Denver - The Broncos only play two games all season at 1 p.m (at Cleveland Oct. 18 and at Bears Nov. 22). They play five night games (two, vs. GB and vs. NE, could in theory be flexed but that's highly unlikely so long as ol' 18 is under center). The Broncos play four of their first six on the road before the bye, so the Nov. 1 Sunday night game against the Pack in Week 8 is only Denver's third home game. Three of the last four are at home.

San Diego - The Chargers, conversely, play FIVE games at 1 p.m. Eastern time. They don't play a division game until hosting Oaklans on Oct. 25 in Week 7. No team starts division later than the Chargers; they do play four of the last five in the division. Like Oakland; those are the only two AFC teams with that distinction this fall and winter. Five of their seven division games come after the Nov. 15 bye. Three of their last four are on the road against all three division foes.

Kansas City - Thanks to "hosting" Detroit in London, the Chiefs only play at Arrowhead seven times this fall. Their first Sunday home game is Oct. 11, and they only play at home one more time until Nov. 29 (the week 12 game where they host Buffalo is just the fourth appearance at Arrowhead of the season). The bye is on Nov. 8 and their playoff hopes will be known shortly thereafter; the Chiefs play four of the next five against the division and all three division roadies in that span. If the Chiefs still control their own fate after that stretch, they do get three of four at home to close the season.

Oakland - The Raiders play four out of five in the division to end the season but the schedule-maker did them no favors, either. They play SIX of their eight road games at 1 p.m. (the division games at Denver and San Diego are always going to be at 4 so it's literally impossible to play any more than six early kicks in a season). They play four out of six on the road after the Oct. 18 bye that comes right before the four-in-five against the division stretch to end the season.


AFC North

Baltimore - The Ravens open up with five out of seven on the road and play back-to-back roadies three times in 2015. They are the only team in the league to have two different stretches of three straight home games, however. One of them crosses through their bye, so Balty doesn't have to leave town from Oct. 27-Nov. 30 and they also go Dec. 6 until the season finale Jan. 3 without having to travel. The only two home games before Nov. 1 are the first and third games in a three-game stretch where they play each team in the division. They are the only team except for San Francisco (four!) to have to travel 2,000 miles or more at least three times, although they play at Frisco and Arizona in back-to-back weeks and might stay out west.

Cincinnati - There's not much to the Cincy schedule. They play back to back home games twice, and back-to-back roadies just twice, and one of those is broken up by the Week 7 bye. Three of the last five are all early start division games, with the other two being trips to San Francisco and Denver for night games (49ers game could be flexed back to 4 pm). Four night games on the slate, with Denver, Cleveland and Houston all locked in.

Pittsburgh - The Steelers go 35 days without playing on the road in the middle of the season (Oct 25-Nov. 29). They can thank three home games in succession (Cincy, Oakland, Cleveland) to start November for that before the bye. Of course, there's always a price to pay for that somewhere, and Pitt will be paying for it in the last month; three of the last four games are at each of the division foes while the lone home game is against Denver. Three of the first five games are at night, with Indy and at Balty scheduled for SNF games later in the season.

Cleveland - The Browns also get three home games in a row, but theirs is later in the season, coming out of the Nov. 22 bye. That means there's a price to pay beforehand. From Sept. 28- Nov. 29 the Browns play just two home games. Cleveland plays all three division road games in that stretch and plays four division games in a row (two on each side of their bye).


AFC South

Indianapolis - The schedule makers didn't hurt Indy's chance to repeat. They'll play five night games and are slated to have just one 4:25 game. Aside from the divisional trips to Houston and Nashville, the furthest west they travel is Atlanta. The Colts play three divisional foes in 12 days (Sept 27-Oct 8) and then are out of the division until Dec. 13, when they play all three divisional foes in the last four weeks. The only potential cold-weather game is Dec. 6 at Pittsburgh, tentatively flexed to SNF.

Houston - If you like the Texans, make sure you're available from 1 until 4:30 every week. The Texans host Indy on a Thursday and play at Cincinnati on MNF Nov. 16. All other 14 games are scheduled for early starts. The first game against Indy kicks off a span where they play all the division teams over four weeks. Curiously enough, Miami hosts them in the middle of that stretch. The Dolphins also host the Colts at the end of the season as the team to break up the AFC South monotony for Indy. The Texans will have it all to play for in the last three weeks. They are the only team in the NFL that finishes the season with three division games in a row.

Jacksonville - The Jags "host" Buffalo in London before their bye, so they only play seven times at home. There's just one "true" home game from Sept. 21-Nov. 19, and the Jags play at New England, at Indy and at Tampa in a three week span early in the season. The Jags do get four out of five at home starting with a riveting TNF game against Tennessee on Nov. 19 before playing their last two in New Orleans and Houston.

Tennessee - Roller-coaster ride here. The Titans don't leave Nashville after Week 2 until November, as they have four home games in a row as well as a bye. After two roadies in a row, the Titans then don't have a Sunday road game until Dec. 13 - the only road trip in that four-game span is the aforementioned blockbuster in Jacksonville on TNF. Of course, that means they're gonna have to pay the piper elsewhere. They open with two roadies, they play two roadies to kick off November and close the season with three out of four on the road.
 
Following on from what Rex has started this is the beginning of a schedule I do each season. Hopefully it displays ok

Yellow highlights are divisional games
Blue highlights are divisional games off a bye
Green are non-divisional games sandwiched between two (or more) divisional games

View attachment 38923

As time goes on I add to it with coaching match-ups (i.e former head coaches or assistants playing against former division teams), and time zone matchups

Minimal care and no responsibility with the accuracy of data
 
And their Week 7 game is interesting, good game to fade them in. Back to back division games, than a non division road game, than another division game before their bye week
 
Following on from what Rex has started this is the beginning of a schedule I do each season. Hopefully it displays ok

Yellow highlights are divisional games
Blue highlights are divisional games off a bye
Green are non-divisional games sandwiched between two (or more) divisional games

View attachment 38923

As time goes on I add to it with coaching match-ups (i.e former head coaches or assistants playing against former division teams), and time zone matchups

Minimal care and no responsibility with the accuracy of data

Added coaching changes. Highlights coaches coaching against their 2014 team, or coaching against a division they coached against in 2014 (had to prepare for twice). Head coaches and coordinators only

View attachment 38948
 
Hey Alan,

For ATL Dan Quinn, you might want to add Weeks 14 and 16 vs. Carolina as the Seahawks played at Carolina during the 2014 regular season and then hosted the Panthers in the playoffs, just as a recency thing.

Your call, just wanted to make a note for you.

Thanks for putting this together, amigo!!
 
And their Week 7 game is interesting, good game to fade them in. Back to back division games, than a non division road game, than another division game before their bye week

Definitely pound Miami at home on a somewhat meaningless game for Houston.
 
Only read the nfc so far, but you are a beauty. Love the non-division short prep Thursday night angle
 
One of the things I look for are anomalies in scoring, and where a team will regress or progress. One of the ways to do this is by looking at the method of TD’s scored against them. The below graph show the percentage of TD’s scored offensively and defensively by defence and special teams (i.e. non offensive TD’s).

View attachment 39132

The big dot at 25% is the St Louis Rams defence. St Louis gave up 18 passing TD’s and 12 rushing TD’s, which would put them equal 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in the category of offensive TD’s conceded, and under the league average for last season of 37.1. However, St Louis finished ranked for 16[SUP]th[/SUP] in points conceded. The reason for this is the other 10 TD’s scored against them – 1 kick return, 5 INT’s, 3 fumbles and 1 block punt. One could argue that these things are random. If they are then surely STL’s scoring defence will be better this season? Even if they halve this number to 5, it’s a TD every 3 games, which could lead to 1 or 2 or 3 extra win/cover/under.

The dot at 20% is PHI offense. They scored 54 TD’s last season, but 11 of those came through their defense and special teams. So their offense “only” scored 43 TD’s last season (good enough for 7[SUP]th[/SUP]), and the remaining 11 came from 2 punt returns, 2 kick returns, 2 INT’s, 2 fumbles returns and 3 block punts. This is why they moved from 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in off TD’s scored to 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in scoring.

Some people like to say that a team with a high or low turnover margin will turn it around the following season. If that is the case then would STL concede less points this season and Phi score fewer? Maybe. Or another scenario could be the teams with the biggest gaps between DEF/ST TD’s scored and conceded could regress towards zero. The teams with the high differences were PHI with 8 (11 scored, 3 conceded) and PIT’s 6 (6 scored, 0 conceded). On the flipside, both NYJ and WAS were -5, both scoring none and conceding 5.

Or maybe you make your own luck
 
Following on from what Rex has started this is the beginning of a schedule I do each season. Hopefully it displays ok

Yellow highlights are divisional games
Blue highlights are divisional games off a bye
Green are non-divisional games sandwiched between two (or more) divisional games

View attachment 38923

As time goes on I add to it with coaching match-ups (i.e former head coaches or assistants playing against former division teams), and time zone matchups

Minimal care and no responsibility with the accuracy of data

dallas this week should be highlighted green.
lw giants, seattle, next week philly

:shake:
 
Following on from what Rex has started this is the beginning of a schedule I do each season. Hopefully it displays ok

Yellow highlights are divisional games
Blue highlights are divisional games off a bye
Green are non-divisional games sandwiched between two (or more) divisional games

View attachment 38923

As time goes on I add to it with coaching match-ups (i.e former head coaches or assistants playing against former division teams), and time zone matchups

Minimal care and no responsibility with the accuracy of data


Do you mind posting this again this year when you have it ready. It was very useful for me, and I'm sure others, last year! Thanks!
 
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