2015 MLB picks

[Eric8923]

I have been tinkering with a mathematics formula in regards to match ups. I create an average win probability based on different aspects of the game in question from each team involved. When I come up with each win probability, I will bet on the teams with at least a 54% win probability. This thread is for tracking purposes. I am doing it for CFB and NFL as well, but the MNF does not fit for a play.

Honorable mentions will not be counted to the overall record. They are just teams who were very close to making the cut.

Current record: 3-6, -5.52 units


9/28
New York Yankees -130
Los Angeles Angels -192 (Pricey but is tied for highest win probability along with the Nationals. Didn't want to post it till I got at least one test run in. )
Seattle Mariners +130

Honorable Mentions
Minnesota Twins +145 (53%)
Los Angeles Dodgers -156 (53%)



9/29
New York Yankees -167 (55%)
New York Mets -180 (57.5%)
Washington Nationals -143 (54%)
Chicago Cubs -143 (54%)
Kansas City Royals -132 (55%)
Los Angeles Angels -161 (56.5%)

Honorable Mentions
Arizona Diamondbacks -173 (53%)

9/30
St Louis Cardinals +145 (56%) noon game.
New York Mets -173 (57%)
Washington Nationals -154 (55.5%)
Chicago Cubs -164 (54%)


I am no longer participating in gambling on baseball. How the hell do the Mets blow a 5 run lead to one of the worst teams in the league. The Phillies are 28th in runs, yet can score 7 unanswered to the Mets. It's been fun but the ride is over. I'll stick to football and basketball.

 

[bloodhound]

Thanks for posting Eric. Hope the system works and I will be keeping an eye on it. Keep good records
GL

 

[STEED]

Best wishes

:cheers3:

 

[Eric8923]

Thanks Fellas. Figured I'd try to find a way to contribute to the forum.


For most of you baseball cappers, what's your stance on the RL? It would cut on the juice for some big favorites and could work for some dogs. Is it preferred to just stick to the ML?

 

[gsro]

Thanks Fellas. Figured I'd try to find a way to contribute to the forum.


For most of you baseball cappers, what's your stance on the RL? It would cut on the juice for some big favorites and could work for some dogs. Is it preferred to just stick to the ML?

-1 for me Eric to reduce juice...there is a calc out there if your book doesn't offer -1 that tells you how much to put on the ml and ther -1.5 to get the equivalent of a -1

 

[YoungGun11]

I think the system is interesting, and I know you and I have tinkered with plays like this in the past. As someone who follows line movements very closely myself I can always appreciate trying something. My question for you and correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't this system favor heavy favorites. The win % I would think using this system would have to be above 60% to turn a profit? Maybe I am wrong as I see the Twins and Mariners listed but I would assume it would be using dogs.

to each their own, however the reason I love baseball is because I am 17-17 and +$656, playing almost all dogs (based on $100 units). If I were 17-17 in virtually any other spot except hockey, I would be getting crushed. Good luck and will be following.

 

[Eric8923]

This looks at how teams perform given certain aspects of each game. For example the amount of rest is a quarter of the formula. If San Diego is something like 43-31 after no rest. I average that out with the other 3 aspects I look at. Then average it out to come up with a specific win probability. I then do the same for the opposing team to come up with my own win probability of who will win that given matchup.

I have Texas winning at 51% even though they are -197
Baltimore split at 50%, Toronto is favored -155
St Louis at 51.5%, Pitt is favored -108
Seattle at 52%, but Houston is favored -155
San Diego at 51% even though they are -168
LA Dodgers at 52.5% at -125

I don't take into account of who is favored or who the public likes at all. If this gives a team a 54% probability of winning, I place the bet. Regardless if its +1044 or -210. I might take into consideration RLs though. Seeing how I got bit by Seattle last night.

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Thanks Fellas. Figured I'd try to find a way to contribute to the forum.


For most of you baseball cappers, what's your stance on the RL? It would cut on the juice for some big favorites and could work for some dogs. Is it preferred to just stick to the ML?

IMO betting -1.5 runs with the Home team is a long term loser but if you want to cut some of the juice I don't do it often I'm mainly a Dog small to med favor player and have had some success lay a -1 or -1.5 with a road team only making sure of the 9 AB's.

Also you may not be able to get all your games in but I do a lot of Live Betting EX: It was a loser if I kept it but you also have flexibility. I liked the Dodgers last night but wasn't going to lay -185 on the road so after San Fran scored 2 in the 2nd inning I play the Dodgers live betting at +165 I'm getting 9 AB's (7 left) and pitchers like Greinke sometimes have that one bad inning and then lock in my only problem was the dodgers couldn't get a key hit.


So after the 10th inning when the dodgers were leaving man in scoring position in the 9th and 10th the hand writing was on the wall and being the underdog in extra inninngs as the road team and not being able to score when they should have going to the bottom of the 10th I bought the Giants at -150 . Anyway my point is look into live betting it's also the greatest in the NBA. I'll get into it another time got to run.

One thing else in the 9th inninng Utley was up 2 outs man on 3rd the SS was 2 feet next to 2nd base and the camera didn't show the 3rd baseman he had to be at least 45 feet from 3rd so why couldn't Utley just tap the ball hard enough so the pitcher can't get it down the 3rd base side. The worst thing he makes the other team think. In his defense he hit a bullet up the middle but was an easy out.
Maybe I'm off base I didn't see the 3rd baseman and I know the pitcher is going to pitch him inside but the ball player today have these unwritten rules that are such BS.


Best of Luck:shake:

 

[Eric8923]

Appreciate the thoughts Paulie. I had the same sentiment with the Yankees last night.

I agree with the -1 1/2, seems too risky. I may give -1 on favs and +1 1/2 on dogs a shot. Save money on the juice for favs.