GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
2015 KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
#1 OCHO OCHO OCHO (50-1) - Looked better as a 2 year old than now at 3. No horse from the rail has won this race in 29 years as with these big fields, it causes a landslide of trouble early on. Beyer figures and sheet numbers say he’s too slow. Toss.
#2 CARPE DIEM (8-1) - 2 post is no gift either but Carpe Diem is a contender. Was super at Keeneland in his 2nd race as a two year old but bounced at the Breeders Cups. Note that all of the New York dirt horses that shipped out to California for the Breeders Cup failed to fire. He has fired in both races as a three year old and really took care of business in the rent Bluegrass win at Keeneland. Has won 4 of his 5 races and $1.5 million but his wins were against some suspect fields. His Beyers and sheet numbers are close enough to contend but not sure I see him as a true win candidate. Trainer Todd Pletcher has not fared well at the Derby. Of his 40 runners (1 for 40 record), only one fired a career best figure, although Carpe Diem shows a bit more favorable pattern than many of Pletcher’s previous horses. Will sprinkle in to bottom of exotic tickets.
#3 MATERIALITY (12-1) - The “Apollo” jinx is in effect as no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without a racing as a two year old since Apollo did it in 1882 (that’s not a typo…yes, 1882). Lightly raced colt blew them out in his last in the Florida Derby with an eye popping 110 Beyer Speed figure. Has won all three career races showing a pattern of improvement in each. Another Pletcher trainee, so we have the 1 for 40 Pletcher history and Pletcher has bad history with horses coming into the Derby off of career bests. As my friends at Thorograph note, "the reason it’s so hard for horses that don’t start at two to win the Derby is that they’re not ready to run in December, but have to run fast enough within the next four months to qualify for the race, and that amount of development in a short time takes a lot out of them.” This horse is fast enough to win but no horse from Post 1-2-3 has won since 1998 and the lack of experience is a concern. Have to include in the mix but mostly on bottom of exotic tickets for me.`
#4 TENCENDUR (30-1) - Comes in with just one career win and a first time Derby jockey. Probably not the best recipe. Didn’t make first start until December as a two year old and looked good with a tough trip two back in the Gotham at Aqueduct. Then he inexplicably exploded with his 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial to Frosted improving 18 Beyer points from the Gotham and 5 points (10 points from his two year old mark) on sheets. Horses coming in off inexplicable improvements tend to bounce backwards. not without a chance to hit the board but I will use very sparingly, if at all, on the bottom of exotics only.
#5 DANZIG MOON (30-1) - Another joining the party with just one career win and that was in a one turn mile event. Did show his best race last out in the Bluegrass finishing 2nd to Carpe Diem. His Beyer figures say no and his dramatic improvement in his last on sheets still isn’t probably good enough to compete here. Another who maybe can hit 3rd or 4th at best but who I will use sparingly, if at all.
#6 MUBTAAHIJ (20-1) - UAE Derby winner last out by 8 lengths got everyone excited to head to the US for the Derby. Has more dirt history than many other following this pattern which could be hope for optimism but horses coming in from UAE for the Derby have not fared well. They estimate that his UAE Derby figure was a 97 which isn’t bad at all but he had a very easy ground saving trip. Horse has showed strong development and has banked $1.46 million already but tough to see him developing even more today, which will be desperately needed. Not completely out of the question to hit bottom of tickets, but not for me.
#7 El KABEIR - SCRATCHED
#8 DORTMUND (3-1) - One of Baffert’s two headed monster going today in the Derby. What can you say bad about a horse who has never lost in 6 races. I have a thing for Dortmund as I used him as a single on a Pick 6 ticket I hit on a carryover at Santa Anita in his debut back in November. His Daddy, Big Brown, took this race in 2008. Has shown versatility winning off the pace and on the lead. In his last, he won the Santa Anita Derby on the lead and even after throwing a shoe, he kicked clear in the lane. Baffert says he is taking to the surface at Churchill better than he has taken to other tracks. Of Baffert’s two killers, Dortmund has proven himself under fire when engaged in tough stretch battles with Firing Line, who is in here after winning the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths. It’s tough to knock this horse but I will say that his sheet numbers are solid every race but he’s not the fastest horse in this race at all on sheets, although he’s close by. He’s a must use especially since he draws well but not convinced he will be wearing the roses when the dust settles.
#9 BOLO (30-1) - Has two wins, both on the lead as a two year old in turf events. Winless on the main track but his sheet numbers are improving and he’s one of only six horses in here with a 3-digit Beyer figure on dirt. His last int he Santa Anita Derby was better than it looked as he was forced both 4 wide and 3 wide at different points while Dortmund had an easy trip. Has the style to work out a decent trip here. He will be completely overlooked today and although his two dirt figures are slightly below the top tier here, they aren’t far off. Not the worst long-shot to throw on to the bottom of tickets in exotic bets.
#10 FIRING LINE (12-1) - Comes off a romping 14+ length front end score in the Sunland Derby. Has never been worse than 2nd in 5 career starts and two of his seconds were both losses by a head to Dortmund. His races are nicely spaced out and he comes in with nice six week rest here. Distance may be the only question, but this guy should be near the front end and could have a strong say in the outcome. Definite contender.
#11 STANFORD - SCRATCHED
#12 INTERNATIONAL STAR (20-1) - SCRATCHED
#13 ITSAKNOCKOUT (30-1) - Already hit a marketing jackpot today as they will be using his name, barn and handlers as billboards to promote tonight's Floyd-Pacquiao fight. Must have a great agent. Another Pletcher trained colt. Lightly raced and showed a monster effort in his first race this year but was “knocked out” in his last at the Florida Derby with an inexplicable clunker after three wins to start off his career, albeit, one through disqualification. Strange inconsistent pattern yet he clearly showed ability in January with a figure that could compete here. His Beyers are a bit low and despite the fact that he is training well, it’s tough to see him hitting the board. Not completely out of the question to be on the bottom of superfectas/pentafectas.
#14 KEEN ICE (50-1) - His one win was here at Churchill and he is style is a deep closer from far back and there should be a fast early pace to help his game out. Having said that, his figures are just too slow. Toss.
#15 FROSTED (15-1) - Ran some very nice races early on as a two year old and jumped up again in December in the Remsen once Lasix was added but tailed off in his first tow races this year, both at Gulfstream. However, word is he was coming off a throat operation prior to those two races and he exploded in his last at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial, his 2nd race with blinkers added. Has nice tactical speed to obtain a nice stalking trip. His sheet number in his last makes him a major player. Must work out a good trip but is a serious contender.
#16 WAR STORY (50-1) - Has improved gradually in each of his five career starts and has hit the board in all five. Having said that, his numbers just look too slow. Toss.
#17 MR. Z (50-1) - D Wayne Lukas has pulled off some head scratchers before and has the most starters (47) in Derby history but this one would be possibly his biggest head scratcher of all. Has tremendous gate speed to be near or on the lead early on, but with so much early speed signed on here, he just doesn’t look fast enough to hold on and hit the ticket.
#18 AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-2) - Simply put has won four straight races by a combined 22+ lengths all with 3 digit Beyer Speed Figures. Despite a health problem that caused him to go unlaced from late September until mid-March, he won the Rebel with ease and recently won the Arkansas Derby like the rest were standing still with plenty left in the tank, posting his best career figure. Since 1996 Baffert has had 24 Derby starters and the ones with only two preps that year, like American Pharoah, have performed worse than the others and none has even been able to match his best previous race. Of the runners Baffert brought into the Derby coming off a new top figure like American Pharoah, only one was able to match it. The other 9 bounced backwards and 6 of them bounced a lot. Horses Baffert has brought in not coming off lifetime best races have fared much better for him. Post #18 has been mitigated now Post #15 (with 3 scratches) but the trip may not be easy. There are a lot of things to like about Pharaoh but he’s a vulnerable favorite. As an investor, you have to use him in the mix but the value is not there to outweigh the vulnerability factor. One of the four fastest horses in the race but no cinch.
#19 UPSTART (15-1) - The fastest horse in the race. So my question is, who is the better investment, American Pharaoh at 3-1 or Upstart at close to 20-1? Hasn’t run a bad race yet and never been out of the money in 7 career starts. He ran well in his debut, then came back on only nine days rest with a gigantic figure for a summer 2 year old. Two races close together often knocks a young horse out yet in the Grade 1 Champagne in the slop, he went forward to an even bigger figure, obscured because Daredevil was an absolute freak that day. After the Champagne, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, he had a tough, wide trip contesting a hot pace and finished a solid 3rd despite the fact that northeastern dirt horses that shipped out west didn’t fare well. But after getting to Florida for the winter, he returned with an enormous figure, one slightly better than anyone else in this race has ever run. That kind of effort often sets back young horses but Upstart got right back to the big figure, but still lost the Florida Derby because Materiality exploded with the race of his life, and Upstart raced outside him on both turns. Upstart had an outstanding foundation as a 2 year old, and not only the best sheet numbers in this race but also comes in on five weeks rest. The only major concern is he’s had five straight wide trips and in a 18 horse field you can lose a lot of ground so this post position is far from ideal.
#20 FAR RIGHT (20-1) - Has improved as a three year old after lackluster two year old races. Will be sitting in the back and trying to make a run late but his figures aren’t fast enough and with just three weeks since his last, tough to include him here. Toss.
#21 FRAMMENTO (50-1) - Looks like he likes added distance and ran into a dead rail in the Bluegrass last out at Keeneland. However, his Beyer and sheet numbers are just too slow. Toss.
While it’s hard to really knock Baffert’s two horses, Dortmund and American Pharaoh, they aren’t necessarily the fasted two horses in the race and the value may lie elsewhere. There’s no way to completely ignore them at the windows and I will be including on my tickets but I will be looking to include horses with more value for top honors also. I will be playing combinations focused on the following and here are my selections:
#19 UPSTART
#15 FROSTED
#18 AMERICAN PHAROAH
#8 DORTMUND
#10 FIRING LINE
*My thanks to Thorograph as I love reading the sheets and analysis to incorporate into my picks and thinking.
#1 OCHO OCHO OCHO (50-1) - Looked better as a 2 year old than now at 3. No horse from the rail has won this race in 29 years as with these big fields, it causes a landslide of trouble early on. Beyer figures and sheet numbers say he’s too slow. Toss.
#2 CARPE DIEM (8-1) - 2 post is no gift either but Carpe Diem is a contender. Was super at Keeneland in his 2nd race as a two year old but bounced at the Breeders Cups. Note that all of the New York dirt horses that shipped out to California for the Breeders Cup failed to fire. He has fired in both races as a three year old and really took care of business in the rent Bluegrass win at Keeneland. Has won 4 of his 5 races and $1.5 million but his wins were against some suspect fields. His Beyers and sheet numbers are close enough to contend but not sure I see him as a true win candidate. Trainer Todd Pletcher has not fared well at the Derby. Of his 40 runners (1 for 40 record), only one fired a career best figure, although Carpe Diem shows a bit more favorable pattern than many of Pletcher’s previous horses. Will sprinkle in to bottom of exotic tickets.
#3 MATERIALITY (12-1) - The “Apollo” jinx is in effect as no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without a racing as a two year old since Apollo did it in 1882 (that’s not a typo…yes, 1882). Lightly raced colt blew them out in his last in the Florida Derby with an eye popping 110 Beyer Speed figure. Has won all three career races showing a pattern of improvement in each. Another Pletcher trainee, so we have the 1 for 40 Pletcher history and Pletcher has bad history with horses coming into the Derby off of career bests. As my friends at Thorograph note, "the reason it’s so hard for horses that don’t start at two to win the Derby is that they’re not ready to run in December, but have to run fast enough within the next four months to qualify for the race, and that amount of development in a short time takes a lot out of them.” This horse is fast enough to win but no horse from Post 1-2-3 has won since 1998 and the lack of experience is a concern. Have to include in the mix but mostly on bottom of exotic tickets for me.`
#4 TENCENDUR (30-1) - Comes in with just one career win and a first time Derby jockey. Probably not the best recipe. Didn’t make first start until December as a two year old and looked good with a tough trip two back in the Gotham at Aqueduct. Then he inexplicably exploded with his 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial to Frosted improving 18 Beyer points from the Gotham and 5 points (10 points from his two year old mark) on sheets. Horses coming in off inexplicable improvements tend to bounce backwards. not without a chance to hit the board but I will use very sparingly, if at all, on the bottom of exotics only.
#5 DANZIG MOON (30-1) - Another joining the party with just one career win and that was in a one turn mile event. Did show his best race last out in the Bluegrass finishing 2nd to Carpe Diem. His Beyer figures say no and his dramatic improvement in his last on sheets still isn’t probably good enough to compete here. Another who maybe can hit 3rd or 4th at best but who I will use sparingly, if at all.
#6 MUBTAAHIJ (20-1) - UAE Derby winner last out by 8 lengths got everyone excited to head to the US for the Derby. Has more dirt history than many other following this pattern which could be hope for optimism but horses coming in from UAE for the Derby have not fared well. They estimate that his UAE Derby figure was a 97 which isn’t bad at all but he had a very easy ground saving trip. Horse has showed strong development and has banked $1.46 million already but tough to see him developing even more today, which will be desperately needed. Not completely out of the question to hit bottom of tickets, but not for me.
#7 El KABEIR - SCRATCHED
#8 DORTMUND (3-1) - One of Baffert’s two headed monster going today in the Derby. What can you say bad about a horse who has never lost in 6 races. I have a thing for Dortmund as I used him as a single on a Pick 6 ticket I hit on a carryover at Santa Anita in his debut back in November. His Daddy, Big Brown, took this race in 2008. Has shown versatility winning off the pace and on the lead. In his last, he won the Santa Anita Derby on the lead and even after throwing a shoe, he kicked clear in the lane. Baffert says he is taking to the surface at Churchill better than he has taken to other tracks. Of Baffert’s two killers, Dortmund has proven himself under fire when engaged in tough stretch battles with Firing Line, who is in here after winning the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths. It’s tough to knock this horse but I will say that his sheet numbers are solid every race but he’s not the fastest horse in this race at all on sheets, although he’s close by. He’s a must use especially since he draws well but not convinced he will be wearing the roses when the dust settles.
#9 BOLO (30-1) - Has two wins, both on the lead as a two year old in turf events. Winless on the main track but his sheet numbers are improving and he’s one of only six horses in here with a 3-digit Beyer figure on dirt. His last int he Santa Anita Derby was better than it looked as he was forced both 4 wide and 3 wide at different points while Dortmund had an easy trip. Has the style to work out a decent trip here. He will be completely overlooked today and although his two dirt figures are slightly below the top tier here, they aren’t far off. Not the worst long-shot to throw on to the bottom of tickets in exotic bets.
#10 FIRING LINE (12-1) - Comes off a romping 14+ length front end score in the Sunland Derby. Has never been worse than 2nd in 5 career starts and two of his seconds were both losses by a head to Dortmund. His races are nicely spaced out and he comes in with nice six week rest here. Distance may be the only question, but this guy should be near the front end and could have a strong say in the outcome. Definite contender.
#11 STANFORD - SCRATCHED
#12 INTERNATIONAL STAR (20-1) - SCRATCHED
#13 ITSAKNOCKOUT (30-1) - Already hit a marketing jackpot today as they will be using his name, barn and handlers as billboards to promote tonight's Floyd-Pacquiao fight. Must have a great agent. Another Pletcher trained colt. Lightly raced and showed a monster effort in his first race this year but was “knocked out” in his last at the Florida Derby with an inexplicable clunker after three wins to start off his career, albeit, one through disqualification. Strange inconsistent pattern yet he clearly showed ability in January with a figure that could compete here. His Beyers are a bit low and despite the fact that he is training well, it’s tough to see him hitting the board. Not completely out of the question to be on the bottom of superfectas/pentafectas.
#14 KEEN ICE (50-1) - His one win was here at Churchill and he is style is a deep closer from far back and there should be a fast early pace to help his game out. Having said that, his figures are just too slow. Toss.
#15 FROSTED (15-1) - Ran some very nice races early on as a two year old and jumped up again in December in the Remsen once Lasix was added but tailed off in his first tow races this year, both at Gulfstream. However, word is he was coming off a throat operation prior to those two races and he exploded in his last at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial, his 2nd race with blinkers added. Has nice tactical speed to obtain a nice stalking trip. His sheet number in his last makes him a major player. Must work out a good trip but is a serious contender.
#16 WAR STORY (50-1) - Has improved gradually in each of his five career starts and has hit the board in all five. Having said that, his numbers just look too slow. Toss.
#17 MR. Z (50-1) - D Wayne Lukas has pulled off some head scratchers before and has the most starters (47) in Derby history but this one would be possibly his biggest head scratcher of all. Has tremendous gate speed to be near or on the lead early on, but with so much early speed signed on here, he just doesn’t look fast enough to hold on and hit the ticket.
#18 AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-2) - Simply put has won four straight races by a combined 22+ lengths all with 3 digit Beyer Speed Figures. Despite a health problem that caused him to go unlaced from late September until mid-March, he won the Rebel with ease and recently won the Arkansas Derby like the rest were standing still with plenty left in the tank, posting his best career figure. Since 1996 Baffert has had 24 Derby starters and the ones with only two preps that year, like American Pharoah, have performed worse than the others and none has even been able to match his best previous race. Of the runners Baffert brought into the Derby coming off a new top figure like American Pharoah, only one was able to match it. The other 9 bounced backwards and 6 of them bounced a lot. Horses Baffert has brought in not coming off lifetime best races have fared much better for him. Post #18 has been mitigated now Post #15 (with 3 scratches) but the trip may not be easy. There are a lot of things to like about Pharaoh but he’s a vulnerable favorite. As an investor, you have to use him in the mix but the value is not there to outweigh the vulnerability factor. One of the four fastest horses in the race but no cinch.
#19 UPSTART (15-1) - The fastest horse in the race. So my question is, who is the better investment, American Pharaoh at 3-1 or Upstart at close to 20-1? Hasn’t run a bad race yet and never been out of the money in 7 career starts. He ran well in his debut, then came back on only nine days rest with a gigantic figure for a summer 2 year old. Two races close together often knocks a young horse out yet in the Grade 1 Champagne in the slop, he went forward to an even bigger figure, obscured because Daredevil was an absolute freak that day. After the Champagne, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, he had a tough, wide trip contesting a hot pace and finished a solid 3rd despite the fact that northeastern dirt horses that shipped out west didn’t fare well. But after getting to Florida for the winter, he returned with an enormous figure, one slightly better than anyone else in this race has ever run. That kind of effort often sets back young horses but Upstart got right back to the big figure, but still lost the Florida Derby because Materiality exploded with the race of his life, and Upstart raced outside him on both turns. Upstart had an outstanding foundation as a 2 year old, and not only the best sheet numbers in this race but also comes in on five weeks rest. The only major concern is he’s had five straight wide trips and in a 18 horse field you can lose a lot of ground so this post position is far from ideal.
#20 FAR RIGHT (20-1) - Has improved as a three year old after lackluster two year old races. Will be sitting in the back and trying to make a run late but his figures aren’t fast enough and with just three weeks since his last, tough to include him here. Toss.
#21 FRAMMENTO (50-1) - Looks like he likes added distance and ran into a dead rail in the Bluegrass last out at Keeneland. However, his Beyer and sheet numbers are just too slow. Toss.
While it’s hard to really knock Baffert’s two horses, Dortmund and American Pharaoh, they aren’t necessarily the fasted two horses in the race and the value may lie elsewhere. There’s no way to completely ignore them at the windows and I will be including on my tickets but I will be looking to include horses with more value for top honors also. I will be playing combinations focused on the following and here are my selections:
#19 UPSTART
#15 FROSTED
#18 AMERICAN PHAROAH
#8 DORTMUND
#10 FIRING LINE
*My thanks to Thorograph as I love reading the sheets and analysis to incorporate into my picks and thinking.
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