2015 Fantasy Football RB Rankings

[Gorgolon Lives]

Updated 8/27/2015

RB Tiers

It’s no surprise anymore that the RB position is devalued in fantasy. The workhorse running back is a dying breed. With so many teams utilizing a RBBC approach, the top WRs will outscore the vast majority of RBs.

The biggest challenge is determining which RBs to put in Tier 1. If you’re drafting in the middle or late first round, you’re going to have to decide on going RB or WR. This decision becomes easier if you’ve created tiers.

As of now, I have five RBs in Tier 1. That’s subject to change, and there may be more RBs added to that Tier by draft day. I would draft any RB in Tier 1 over a WR. Once the top tier RBs are gone, it’s ok to start considering Tier 1 WRs and Gronk.

I’ll be doing mocks and experimenting with the WR-WR strategy if I don’t land a top 5 pick. The 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]-5[SUP]th[/SUP] round will contain some high upside RBs who could finish in the top-10 if things work in their favor.

Tier 1

[TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Bell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lacy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peterson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lynch[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charles[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Safety is just as important, if not more important, than upside when drafting in the top 5. Eddie Lacy is the safest RB this year. He’ll be right around 1500 total yards, 40 catches, and 10+ TDs. Nearly the entire offense returns in 2015, so there’s no reason to think Lacy has a down year. Literally, there are no concerns on him. Maybe concussions?

Flip a coin on the remaining guys in this tier. AP is 30 and his troubles are well-documented. Charles is now 28, his production declined at the end of last season, he has a quality back up behind him if KC wants to conserve his legs, and KC finally has a legit #1 WR. I’m not avoiding Charles, but he’s more of a back end Tier 1 RB rather than the #1 overall pick.

Bell is interesting. But for the suspension, he’d be the #1 overall pick. His potential in the PITT offense is so great that it’s not crazy to consider him #1 overall despite the 2 game suspension.

Lynch getting older and the addition of Graham could hurt his TD’s. Still, Seattle will continue to be one of the most run heavy teams in the league. Lynch should fall into 1200+ yards and 10TDs. He’s also surprisingly productive in the passing game.

Tier 2

[TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Murray[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anderson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miller[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ingram[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hill[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Forte[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Murray[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stewart
Gore
McCoy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Tier 2 is proof that RB is a bit deeper than previous years.

I’m not really sure how Chip will use Murray and Mathews yet. And historically players coming off of high workloads decline in the following year. McCoy may get 350 touches this year, which automatically would put him in the top-5. His personality with Rex Ryan though is cause for concern, and that experiment could blow up quickly.

Anderson and Ingram will see increased workloads. I’m high on both. According to reports, the Broncos and the Saints clearly want to run the ball more in 2015.

I’m not buying Forte and Foster because of workload concerns and age. They likely won’t be on any of my teams because they’re going too high in drafts. It’s easier to draft Foster because he has a clear handcuff in Alfred Blue, who would become a top-15 RB if Foster went down. However, the back-up situation is less clear in Chicago. There’s no handcuff for Forte. He’s a big risk in round 1. The receptions should decline, as well, with Trestman gone.

I’m high on the Dolphins offense, so I’m high on Miller. There’s talk about Ajayi stealing some carries, but it’s not like Ajayi was a high draft pick. There’s no guarantee that he steps in right away and steals carries. If Miller proves he can carry a full load, he has top 5 potential. He’s also in a contract year. Awesome upside pick. If I go WR-WR, I’d be very happy with Miller as my RB 1 in round 3.

I was high on Hill last season, and he likely won many fantasy leagues as a 6[SUP]th[/SUP] round pick. This year he’s over-rated. Historically, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year RBs struggle (See Bernard and Ellington in 2014). Cinncy still has Bernard in the backfield, and a bad QB in Dalton. I like Hill, but the risk is too great to consider him ahead of a Tier 1 WR. For me, he’s more of a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] round pick but I doubt he lasts that long in most drafts. So I doubt he’ll be on my teams.

Stewart finally gets a chance to be the lead back in a run friendly offense. If he stays healthy, he’s top-10. He has great value as 5[SUP]th[/SUP] round pick. I’m not sure why people are low on him. There are injury concerns, but the risk isn’t too great in this area of the draft.

Spiller is up here in the PPR rankings because Peyton has said he wants to use Spiller in the old Sproles role. Spiller should lead all RBs in receptions in 2015.

Tier 3

[TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 76"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Abdullah[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gordon[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Randle[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hyde[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spiller[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Forsett[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ellington[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivory[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morris[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I’m not buying Forsett as a top pick. He’s been a journeyman his entire career. He’s 29 years old. It’s a big risk to spend a high pick on him based solely off of last year’s production. If you draft him, handcuff with Taliaferro.

Morris always struggles in a PPR league. He’s a backend RB2. But a safe pick.

I really like Gordon because SD really likes him. They moved up in round 1 to get him, so it’s clear Gordon will be a workhorse RB right away. He won’t offer much in the passing game with Woodhead in that role, but he can get to 10 TDs.

I’m higher on Abdullah because of Bell’s injury. Bell has been hurt many times in the past few years and he is 29. If Bell doesn’t recover quickly, the job is Abdullah’s to lose. The situation is worth monitoring in camp.

I was high on Ellington last year but he busted because of injuries. AZ drafted Johnson to lessen Ellington’s load on early downs. I think a lighter load will actually help Ellington. He’ll still be a big factor in PPR. He’s a nice buy low candidate so long as he can stay healthy. Handcuff with Johnson if the price is right.

I’ve been waiting for Gore to fall off a cliff for years now. It hasn’t happened. He has a lot of TD potential in this offense. He won’t need 200 carries to be productive in 2015.

Tier 4

[TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]R Mathews[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Yeldon[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Martin[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blount[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gurley[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jennings[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernard[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Tier 4 are more of RB3 type of players who could produce as RB2s on some weeks.

Even though it’s clear that Bernard is nothing more than a change of pace back, he still carries a ton of value in PPR. He’s a nice buy low RB. I’m not sold that Hill has totally taken over the job. I’m predicting 1,000+ total yards, 50+ receptions, and 7-8 TDS.

Don’t forget that Vereen is now in New York, so Jennings’ role in the pass game should decline. He won’t repeat his numbers from last year.

I like Yeldon, but the Jags offense is tough to buy into. Yeldon is a high upside bench guy.

Crowell would be higher but for West and Duke Johnson. The time share in Clev will be frustrating to watch.

Martin could be a nice buy low candidate. I didn’t see much from Sims last season to suggest he can carry a full load. TB will want to take pressure off of Winston with a consistent run game, so Martin should get plenty of carries. I’m just not sure he’s that good.
If Murray breaks down, Mathews becomes a top-10 RB in Philly.

Tier 5

[TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Crowell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Gray[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Coleman[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Woodhead[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Bell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Cobb[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Johnson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Duke Johnson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Mason[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blue[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dunbar[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vereen[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Davis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Freeman[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T West[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Tier 5 is filled with big time potential. But each of these guys come with conditions. They can be productive if certain things fall in their favor.

David Johnson is a big time sleeper if Ellington gets hurt again.

Monitor Freeman and Coleman in camp. If one emerges, he could be a RB2 in that zone blocking scheme which has proven to be successful.

If Blount proves to be an idiot again, Jonas Gray and James White is all that is left in New England because Vereen is gone and Cadet is merely a passing down back.

Taliaferro is a great late pick if Forsett breaks down or gets hurt.

If you draft Randle, you want to handcuff him with Dunbar. If Randle busts, Dunbar should be next man up. I think McFadden is done.

I think Cobb, not Sankey, will lead Tennessee in carries. Still, Tennessee just isn’t a very good team.

Tier 6

[TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 117"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]M Jones[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Williams[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sproles[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Taliaferro[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]B Allen[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Herron[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sims[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Starks[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Helu[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J White[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Riddick[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Hunter[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]McKinnon[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Polk[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Robinson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grimes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]D Williams[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Not much upside here in Tier 7. These are more handcuff or passing down options for PPR leagues.

Riddick is someone to keep an eye on. If Bell is hurt, Riddick’s role could increase. And if Abdullah busts, Riddick is all that is left in Detroit.

Starks is a must handcuff for Lacy owners.

 

[eggman]

Very thorough. Thanks for all the work.

 

[dudleysdad]

I think Ryan Matthews catches over 50 balls. He may get you 1000+ yds via run n catch.
Spiller should excel in NO.
Love Melvin Gordon
Sleeper- tevin Coleman

 

[KJ]

Arian Foster already possible groin surgery, avoid at all cost

 

[ScopeY]

Arian Foster already possible groin surgery, avoid at all cost

Stinks too, wish it didnt happen yet, i was never going to snag him (is that fucked up to say?)

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Arian Foster already possible groin surgery, avoid at all cost

It's actually not the greatest news for pre-season Foster haters. He was being drafted with a 1st round pick. That pick will now be occupied more than likely by a quality WR, which thins the ranks. Also, if this happened mid-season, Blue would taken over the job. Now, Houston can have a position battle and may even sign a veteran.

Foster will be removed from the rankings as un-draftable. Even if he returns in week 10, it'll take him a game or two to get back. By then, fantasy games will be too important to risk inserting him in the line up.

Blue will move up in the ranks, but not too high until we know more about the position battle as camp moves on.

A trade for Khiry Robinson makes a lot of sense for Houston.

 

[ScopeY]

Same first thoughts as I did, but put much nicer

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Jay Ajayi not impressing at Dolphins camp. Reports now that Dolphins will have a competition for the #2 RB spot. This further ensures Lamar Miller's role as a workhorse back in what should be a high powered offense. He should be close to 300 touches in 2015.

 

[Carolina Guy]

Solid work, but if it were mine (and it's not) Hill and Forsett are too low. Murray way too low. Ingram and Spiller (same team) are way too high.

Hill MIGHT lead the league is rushing this season. Gio is nothing more than a gadget back from here on out. Pains me to say. Unfortunately I am not a Hill owner in any of my leagues.

No question Forsett was who you said he was, but that's bc he was never given his chance to shine. He shone last season when given his first real shot and will be given that same opportunity this year and should/will succeed. The guy has no mileage on his 29 year old body. Buck gonna have to wait his turn. And I'm a Buck owner in a dynasty. Own Forsett in another.

didint see any reason given for Murray, but I'm gonna assume the number of carries last year? Fair assessment, but how is this guy not gonna shine in that Philly offense? I'm willing to to pay to see it. Assuming these are re-draft rankings, Murray has at minimum this year left to reign supreme if not another year as well. I own Murray in one league

Ingram/Spiller play on the same team ... And this team sucked last year. Nothing much changing this year either although everyone will buy in again. I'm an Ingram owner in one league and I'm not that high on him. His ceiling will be close to a 1,000 and maybe 8 TD's. Again, ceiling numbers. I can't in good nature base my rankings on celinings. (Course, these aren't mine, but yours, but you get my point). Spiller - only had 1,200 receiving yards and 6 TD's in five seasons. What the coach says and what's reality is two different things from where I sit. Bottom line is both these guys can't have great seasons no matter how the offense is run. I own Ingram in one league and am not a Spiller owner in any.

Just my opinions. Not trying to poo-poo on ya. Just another perspective is all. Hell, it don't mean I'm right either . Great thread and look forward to reading the others.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Solid work, but if it were mine (and it's not) Hill and Forsett are too low. Murray way too low. Ingram and Spiller (same team) are way too high.

Hill MIGHT lead the league is rushing this season. Gio is nothing more than a gadget back from here on out. Pains me to say. Unfortunately I am not a Hill owner in any of my leagues.

No question Forsett was who you said he was, but that's bc he was never given his chance to shine. He shone last season when given his first real shot and will be given that same opportunity this year and should/will succeed. The guy has no mileage on his 29 year old body. Buck gonna have to wait his turn. And I'm a Buck owner in a dynasty. Own Forsett in another.

didint see any reason given for Murray, but I'm gonna assume the number of carries last year? Fair assessment, but how is this guy not gonna shine in that Philly offense? I'm willing to to pay to see it. Assuming these are re-draft rankings, Murray has at minimum this year left to reign supreme if not another year as well. I own Murray in one league

Ingram/Spiller play on the same team ... And this team sucked last year. Nothing much changing this year either although everyone will buy in again. I'm an Ingram owner in one league and I'm not that high on him. His ceiling will be close to a 1,000 and maybe 8 TD's. Again, ceiling numbers. I can't in good nature base my rankings on celinings. (Course, these aren't mine, but yours, but you get my point). Spiller - only had 1,200 receiving yards and 6 TD's in five seasons. What the coach says and what's reality is two different things from where I sit. Bottom line is both these guys can't have great seasons no matter how the offense is run. I own Ingram in one league and am not a Spiller owner in any.

Just my opinions. Not trying to poo-poo on ya. Just another perspective is all. Hell, it don't mean I'm right either . Great thread and look forward to reading the others.

I still might move Murray up to Tier 1. Right now I have him as the best Tier 2 RB, which means I think he is a late 1st or early 2nd round pick.

Can't argue with Hill and Forsett. A lot of people seem to be on board with them.

In New Orleans, I have Ingram getting at least 250 carries and with Graham gone, I see him getting over 10 TDs. I have Spiller as a back end RB2 in PPR leagues. I think he gets 70+ receptions in a Sproles-like role. Spiller should also be good for at least 125 carries. Robinson should clean up the rest of the carries.

Last season, The Saints ran 406 times for 16 TDS. With an improved O-line, declining Brees, and Graham gone, I think those rushing numbers go up. If they can get to around 450 carries (which would've put them in the top-10 in 2014), then 2 RBs can definitely succeed in this offense, especially in PPR.

 

[Carolina Guy]

I hope you are right with Ingram. I drafted him this year in a new devy dynasty league. Got him at 7.9. Great value even if he gives me what I think he can. Steal of the draft if he can give me what you think he can get.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Watching Crowell's stock right now in Clev. Reports are out that West is a headcase and Duke Johnson has been hurt. That team has no choice but to run this year with no QB and Bowe as the #1 WR. And if Crowell can somehow get 15-20 touches per game, he'd be a decent back end RB2. He's currently going in the 7th round behind guys like Vereen, J Bell, and Coleman. That's good value.

If they go with a 3-headed comitttee, then his value sucks.

 

[XhuegoX]

I was looking forward to your threads. They really helped me out last year.

I strongly have to disagree with your assessment of Frank Gore. Yes he's over 30 but he's been pretty durable last few years. This is a guy that beats all odds. He's a freak of nature. Also, consider the fact that it will be the first time in his career he isn't going to consistently see 8-9 guys in the box. Going from Alex Smith & Kap to Andre Luck is a HUGE difference in how defenses will play him. Also going from playing against the NFC West defenses and now going against the Jags and Titans twice each. Not to mention all the additional goal line carries he will see due to being in a much better offense. I believe 10 TDs is the minimum for him. I believe he has one good year left in him.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I was looking forward to your threads. They really helped me out last year.

I strongly have to disagree with your assessment of Frank Gore. Yes he's over 30 but he's been pretty durable last few years. This is a guy that beats all odds. He's a freak of nature. Also, consider the fact that it will be the first time in his career he isn't going to consistently see 8-9 guys in the box. Going from Alex Smith & Kap to Andre Luck is a HUGE difference in how defenses will play him. Also going from playing against the NFC West defenses and now going against the Jags and Titans twice each. Not to mention all the additional goal line carries he will see due to being in a much better offense. I believe 10 TDs is the minimum for him. I believe he has one good year left in him.

Thanks. Good points on Gore. I am going to continue tweaking the rankings, and will probably move him up

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Tweaked the RB Tiers a good amount and will continue tweaking through preseason.

I think after the top 5 RBs, its a crap shoot and very difficult to rank these guys. I'm seeing some rankings with Anderson in the top 5. I don't have a problem with putting him in Tier 1. If you do, then he becomes a clear 1st round pick. I'm concerned about him because we don't know for sure if he automatically will become the lead back in Denver in the first year in a new system. If you think Anderson is the guy, put him in Tier 1. For me, there's too much risk right now.

I extended Tier 2. I don't know how these guys will finish in the ranks, but I feel that all the guys in Tier 2 have top-10 upside in PPR. The Tier 2 RBs carry more risk, so it's difficult to use a high pick on them. I'd much rather take those RB risks in rounds 3 or 4 and beyond instead of round 1 and 2.

After doing some mocks, I've been going WR-WR in the first 2 rounds (if I can't get a top-5 RB). I'm fine with this strategy because of the RB talent still available in round 3 and 4 (Miller, Ingram, etc.). Overall, I prefer a Tier 1 WR over every Tier 2 RB. That's why guys like Murray, McCoy, and Hill won't be on any of my teams. Those guys are going late first-early second before some of the Tier 1 WRs. I don't like that value. I've consistently come out of the first 3 rounds with a combo like Dez, Julio, and Miller. I'm fine with that start in PPR.

Tier 3 are the RB2's. I moved Ellington up quite a bit because of what AZ did to improve the O-line. Abdullah is being hyped in camp. I'm still high on him. Overall, I consider the Tier 3 RBs as more of 5th round picks or later. I usually like to grab a Tier 2 WR over the Tier 3 RBs, but it all depends on how the draft is going.

Tier 4 are the RB3's who could produce like RB2s at some points. I've bumped Matthews up because of reports coming out of Philly that Matthews should still be heavily involved. Murray's workload is very concerning.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

CJ Spiller getting knee operation/"clean up" -- Saints say he'll be ready for week 1. But with his past injury history, this doesn't sound good. I'll be moving him down to Tier 3 most likely. Good news for Ingram.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Updated the RB tiers.

Bell is now #1 overall. In PPR leagues, he just has too big of a weekly advantage over Lacy. You can fill his 2 game absence with Deangelo, Gray, or Tre Mason. I'd still prefer having pick #5 and grabbing whatever RB falls. Then in round 2, you still have a shot at a Tier 1 WR. But you can't really argue with any order of the top-5 RBs.

Not much change in Tier 2. I still struggle with where to put Anderson. If you think he gets all of the work in Denver, then he probably should be in Tier 1. It's just difficult to use a 1st round pick on him when he hasn't even played a full season as a bell cow RB. It's tough to make the argument for him over Tier 1 WRs like Dez and Brown, especially in PPR. I moved Lamar Miller up. It looks like Damien Williams will be his main back-up/change of pace back. Williams is no threat to Miller's early down carries. Ajayi is no threat this year. Good news for Miller.

In most mocks I do, I usually go WR-WR, then end up with Miller or Ingram in round 3. I wouldn't reach for any other RBs in round 3.

Tier 3 has been tweaked quite a bit. The two rookies are fine in round 5 and beyond. 3rd or 4th is a bit of a reach. It's tough to draft Spiller right now with the knee injury. I know it's a minor procedure, but this guy has a history of injuries. I'd like him more in round 6. I bumped Ivory up to Tier 3 because I think he's pretty similar to Morris. Both guys won't catch passes, but should get the bulk of the 2 down work as long as they stay healthy. Ivory is the better value. Randle, Murray, and Stewart are my favorite RB2's in round 4 or 5.

Tier 4 is also tweaked. I'm liking Matthews more and more. He should get 200 touches even with Murray in the line up. If Murray goes down, then he becomes a top-10 RB. I can't get behind Blount as anything more than a RB3. You can't trust Billy B in NE.

Tier 5 are high upside fliers. We're still waiting on clarity from CLEV, ATL, TENN, and HOU. Some of those RBs could get up to Tier 4.

Tier 6 = deep league picks

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Lots of talk on Twitter about Ellington with new signing of CJK. I think Ellington is a solid RB2 in PPR. He's not someone to reach for, but he's fine in round 6 after the rookies and Gore are off the board.

 

[Tide High]

I see all the philly guys loving on Matthews but we will see. He is talented. I think Murray fits what kelly wants to do and Matthews is insurance. That said kelly ain't scared to feed the hot hand and he said he's taking it easy on Murray now bc of the workload last season. Basically I'm waive ring.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think conservative estimate would be for Mathews to get 30-35% of the carries. The Eagles should approach 500 rushing attempts in 2015. I also think you can pencil him in for around 20 receptions. So that's 170-195 touches (assuming Murray plays a full 16 game schedule). If Murray misses any time, then Mathews would go over 200 touches which is great value considering where he is being drafted.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Twitter blowing up over McCoy injury in camp. Cannot bend leg. He's definitely fragile. Regardless of this injury, it just shows that risk of using an early pick on him.

 

[Tide High]

FUCK. as soon as i make up my mind on no picking foster... he goes down. now same with mccoy.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

My first home draft is Sunday. Right now, I have to bump Randle to Tier 3. He's more of a 5th rd pick at this point. Re-occurring injuries, minimal practice time as lead back in offense, and DAL is really talking up McFadden. If Randle was more proven, I wouldn't be as concerned about him. But he really needs to prove he can carry the load, and that means he must be 100% and get as much live practice time and preseason work as possible.

Randle is more of a crap shoot pick right now, and that means he's not worth a high round pick.

 

[Mo]

So now that pouncey gets hurt does this hurt Leveon Bell's performance.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

So now that pouncey gets hurt does this hurt Leveon Bell's performance.

It could be a reason to move him down a spot if you have him neck and neck with another RB. There's really no right way to rank those top RBs. I'd still take Bell #1.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Lots of home drafts going on this upcoming weekend. I have another myself. This will probably be the last RB update until the weekend unless something drastic happens. Along with this update, I'll provide some commentary about my other home draft that took place this past weekend.

There's no change at the top. I still rather have Pick #5 overall and draft whichever Tier 1 RB falls. In my home league, I went with Lacy at 2 after Bell went 1. I think the Jordy news can only help Lacy. Strangely, Lynch went #9 overall. It's PPR, but that is insane value. Forte went 6, and Dez went in the next pick. It's a joke that Forte went that high especially with Dez starring that owner right in the face. Suffice it to say, that Forte pick got some laughs.

In Tier 2, I moved Murray ahead of Anderson based on the reports that Denver wants to get Hillman more involved. CJ Anderson is looking more and more like a bad pick. He's not worth a 1st round selection due to uncertainty, and round 2 is filled with a ton of good WRs that are tough to pass up. There's a grouping of RBs that won't be on any of my teams (Murray, Anderson, Forte, Hill, and McCoy). All of those players are going late in round 1 and into round 2 ahead of Tier 1 WRs. I value all of the Tier 1 WRs over them. There's less risk at WR, and RB is surprisingly deep in the middle rounds.

I've been taking Lamar Mill in round 3 in almost all mocks. I took him in my home draft last weekend, and I'll probably take him again this weekend. It's just how my rankings always seem to play out. After all Tier 1 WRs dry up after round 2, I value Miller and Ingram ahead of the Tier 2 WRs as very solid 3rd round picks. Miller finished top-10 at the position last season, and now his situation is arguably better than last season. He's excellent value in round 3. Ingram's value is even higher now that Spiller is once again hurt.

I had to move Randle down to Tier 3 because he just hasn't been on the field. I still think he becomes the lead RB in Dallas, but he's not worth a top pick because of the risk. Luckily, everyone else is down on him now too. I recently got him in round 6 in my draft, and I think that's great value. I grabbed Gore in round 4. I don't value Gore that high, but I knew others did. So I took a gamble and it paid off because I was able to grab Randle and Stewart AFTER Gore. I live and die by my Tiers, but sometimes you also have to use ADP and league knowledge to your advantage. Almost everyone laughed at my Stewart pick, but in the 7th round I thought it was a steal. When you pick on the bookends (top or bottom of draft), sometimes you need to take some risks because you know there's a 0% chance that player will be available after the long wait. I knew Gore wouldn't be available later, and I hoped Stewart would be. That decision paid off.

No one seems to like Ivory. He was there in round 9, but I decided to take John Brown over him because I had 5 RBs by then. Still, Ivory in round 9 would have been a steal. Who's his competition? Abdullah went in round 5, and that seems to be his sweet spot right now. He's not someone I'm targetting that high. Ryan Mathews went in round 4. Initially that sounds crazy, but he went to the Demarco Murray owner. It's not a terrible strategy. Mathews is at least a FLEX while Murray is healthy. If Murray goes down, Mathews is top-10.

Tier 4 is still volatile. Gurley gets a bump after news that he's cleared to play. He's still going way too high, and won't be on any of my teams. I think he went in round 5 in my home league which is insane considering he hasn't played a down. Same with Yeldon -- What has this guy done to deserve a mid round pick? How many TDs will he score in Jax? Doug Martin's stock is rising and Jennings stock is down mostly because of the competition (in NY) and lack thereof (in TB) for carries.

Tier 5 contains the 2 Johnsons. David in AZ and Duke in Clev. Both are good picks in round 10 or so. Duke is a good speculative pick if you draft before Saturday. Word is that he will get the bulk of the work on Saturday, and if he has a good performance, his stock will rise. I'm down on Alfred Blue now. He hasn't grabbed a hold of the position despite given the opportunity. I think HOUS will go RBBC until Foster returns.

In Tier 6, Matt Jones and Buck Allen stand out. My one "sleeper" of the entire draft -- Taliaferro -- has suffered an injury. It's just something a back up RB cannot afford especially fighting against a rookie. I probably won't be drafting him. Starks and McKinnon are must handcuffs for Lacy and AP owners. I was happy to grab Starks in Round 14 after drafting Lacy. I was drunk by then, and I almost forgot. But I overheard the AP owner say they were going to lock up McKinnon in the same round, which reminded me to do the same. If Lacy goes down, Starks is a top-10 RB.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Bumped Gore to Tier 2. Did a lot of reading on Colts offense, and RBs in a Luck system are very successful. Gore has same issue as Stewart: can they stay healthy? Since I had Stewart in Tier 2, it makes sense to group him with Gore.

McCoy is really in territory where it's almost impossible to draft him.

 

[Tide High]

Gore never gets hurt but he is 32. I'm snatching him up a lot

 

[Tide High]

where is the right time to take foster? he could be back as early as week 2... that is nothing. even if its week 4, he's gotta be considered a low RB2 right?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

where is the right time to take foster? he could be back as early as week 2... that is nothing. even if its week 4, he's gotta be considered a low RB2 right?

He's off my board, but if he's there in round 10 maybe. But it seems like people are still taking a flier on him in earlier rounds.

 

[Tide High]

ok i disagree but i prob won't take him early enough to get him. who knows how serious his injury is but if he gets healthy early his ceiling is still top 5

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

How high would you take him?

 

[Tide High]

I'd take him around ivory martin Crowell Jennings. He's the only rb that late that might win you a ship

That's all on the latest news that says he could be back week 2