GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
2014 KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW
'an_horse'
Yesterday my analysis of the Kentucky Oaks was spot on, almost to the point that the write up would’ve been near perfect after the race was over. Today, there is no way to be as precise. If this race was run 20 times, I think there are 8 different horses who would show a win. Remember, pace and trips determine the outcome in races like this. If the horses go slow early on, closers from behind will not be able to gain much ground in the stretch. If the pace is fast and contentious early on, the wheels will fall off many of the front runners and closers will be at a huge advantage. Interestingly, there seems to be many front runner today, most of whom occupy the inside posts while most of the closers are in the 7 outside posts.
Here’s an overview of today’s horses with my general analysis:
#1 VICAR'S IN TROUBLE - Interesting horse with a tough post position. As the DRF says, he "might have the best mid race quarter mile of any horse in the Derby." Very athletic small horse. Has shown some versatility. Distance is a question and could vie for early lead. His wins have been on or right near the lead early. Could avoid the problems of being the rail horse in a big field due to his early speed. If any horse in this field can handle the rail, it's Vicar. Never has had to duel in the stretch in his victories. Not impossible for Napravnik to win the Oaks and Derby. Not without a chance at big odds.
#2 HARRY'S HOLIDAY - Both wins came against weak company. Was claimed in his first race in a $25-30,000 claimer. He has yet to gain ground in the stretch of any race and hasn't won past 6 1/2 furlongs. Seems over matched.
#3 UNCLE SIGH - Has 90+ Beyer Speed Figures in all 5 career starts and showed his mettle in the Withers and Gotham Stakes. Had a tough trip in the Wood Memorial but made a respectable account of himself. Adds blinkers, which has not been a solid angle for his trainer, Contessa but he needs a decent break out of the gate here. Should be heard from early and should be able to get position early and avoid the wide trip he got in the Wood Memorial. Not completely out of the question and can see him contending for a spot on the bottom part of the ticket at big odds.
#4 DANZA - Has never raced in a race with more than 7 horses in a race and showed a 21 point Beyer improvement in his most recent in the Arkansas Derby win, where he got an absolutely great trip. Has trained well this week at Churchill. Has tactical early speed to get into favorable early position. Distance is a question as his "daddy" was a Grade 1 sprinter. I wanted to originally ignore him but his strong workouts have me a bit confused. Only 3 weeks since last race and horses that improves so dramatically right before the Derby, usually bounce. Inclined to leave off most of my tickets but I guess I have to sprinkle in a little at the bottom end of my tickets.
#5 CALIFORNIA CHROME - Derby has not been kind to favorites. Only entrant with multiple three digit Beyer Figures and the highest single race Beyer in the field. He has more starts (10) than any other horse in here and shows 6 wins. Looked great in recent romps in California but some question the level of three year old competition in California this year. His recent two wins were aided by huge speed bias to front running horses at Santa Anita. In 4 of his last 5 starts, he hasn't gotten the cleanest of breaks from the gate. Not bred like a champion but he is a deserving favorite but as the favorite, he is an underlay and has a lot of questions. Don't see the value in him and while I will sprinkle him in as you have to respect, I will mostly be banking against him in the win position. Allegedly, his Wednesday training session was nothing special at Churchill. A win wouldn't surprise me but a complete flop wouldn't surprise me either. No Cal bred horse has won the Derby since 1962. I think the streak continues.
#6 SAMRAAT - Has figures on sheets that match California Chrome yet he has huge value around 15-1 or higher. Won his first 5 races before finishing 2nd in his last in the Wood Memorial. Has never gone off at higher than 3-1 so he has tremendous value here. His sheet numbers in his last 3 races make him one of the top contenders in the field. He drew well here with the 6 post. Has good early speed but can rate behind the leaders effectively. Definitely a strong contender I will be using. 'an_horse'
#7 WE MISS ARTIE - Shows synthetic and grass pedigree. Staunch closer could be helped by contentious pace. Training well but his dirt races are not inspiring. Sheet numbers on any surface just don’t look anywhere near the top ones. Not for me.
#8 GENERAL A ROD - Has hit the board in all 5 starts and has shown he's a fighter. Showing solid improvement as a 3 year old. Has good early speed like many others in here, which could lead to a contentious early pace. Distance is a concern and his running style puts him in jeopardy but his sheet numbers are very solid, among the top 3-4 horses in the race. Comes off solid rest and got a decent draw here to avoid a bad trip. Not out of the question and I will be sprinking in on my tickets.
#9 VINCEREMOS - If you ignore his flop in the Bluegrass on synthetic where he was forced wide, his 4 dirt races have yielded two firsts and two seconds. In his 4 dirt races, he never lost ground in the stretch. His sheet numbers are not all that competitive and he really hasn't beaten any noteworthy competition. Connections seemed to lack confidence waiting until last moment for decision whether to run him here. Not completely impossible, but can't use him in top 3 spots.
#10 WILDCAT RED - Outstanding early speed and in 7 races, has 4 firsts and 3 seconds. Won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in wire to wire form and got necked out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby but feeling is this one may be up against it with so much early speed up front. The fact that he drifted out badly in the stretch of the Florida Derby may suggest he won’t like this distance. However, his sheet numbers are very competitive here. One dimensional horse whose style won’t be ideal today. I will probably not be using.
#11 HOPPERTUNITY - SCRATCHED
#12 - DANCE WITH FATE - Improving colt ran his best race by far in his last at Keeneland winning the Bluegrass in impressive closing fashion in a field of 14. However, most of his best lines were on turf and Polytrack surfaces. In addition, horses who make such dramatic improvements in their most recent race, usually bounce backwards. The dramatic improvement combined with the switch in surfaces and just three weeks rest have me looking elsewhere.
#13 CHITU - Just a half length away from being undefeated with 3 firsts and 1 second in 4 lifetime races, Another horse with excellent early speed but distance is a bit of a concern, as his Daddy was a sprinter. Trainer, Bob Baffert, didn’t show a lot of confidence in this one wavering on whether or not to enter him here. Consistent sheet numbers but a notch below the top contenders. Running style and slightly slower numbers have me looking elsewhere today.
#14 MEDAL COUNT - May have the right profile in that he is a solid closer. Was compromised by a speed favoring track in the Fountain of Youth and bounced back well on the Poly surface at Keeneland to win a Grade 3 Stake on April 4th and then had a strong closing 2nd just 8 days later in the Bluegrass. His dirt figures aren’t nearly good enough here and he’s another who fits the pattern of horses making huge recent improvements in their last who tend to bounce. The fact that this is his 3rd race in a month leading in to today’s “Super Bowl” is a turn off for me. I’m looking elsewhere.
#15 TAPITURE - Consistent horse with figures below the top tier horses here. Has decent early tactical speed to avoid a bad trip and he has 3 races here at Churchill so he has familiarity. He faltered in the Arkansas Derby, his longest race so far, so today’s Derby may not be to his liking. His Grade 3 win earlier this year was a rail skimming ride where he saved ground. Nothing overly inspiring here and the fact that he comes in off three weeks rest has me looking elsewhere.
#16 INTENSE HOLIDAY - With a lot of horses signed on today with early speed, the profile of the winner may be a horse who saves ground and closes. If you subscribe to these race dynamics, you need to take a long look at Intense Holiday. He overcame a slow paced race and won the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans with a 5 wide long sustained rally getting up in the final stride to win by a nose in a field of 14. He was favored in the Louisiana Derby and was bumped mid-race and got away from his closing strategy by being close up early on and finished a solid 2nd to Vicar’s in Trouble. He’s been working very sharply this week and picks up the services of the well respected Johnny Velazquez. His sheet number in the Risen Star puts him in the top category of horses here and he comes in with 5 weeks of rest. Will definitely be including him strongly on my tickets. 'an_horse'
#17 COMMANDING CURVE - Has 3 races over this Churchill oval and two around two turns which is advantageous experience. He had an impossible trip in the Risen Star and was bumped at the break in the Louisiana Derby and was 4 wide on the second turn but still managed to finish 3rd. Again, if you believe there will be a fast and contentious early pace, this is another with the right come from behind style. His sheets numbers have steadily improved every race and his best sheet number is not that much behind the top few horses. i do not see why this horse is 50-1 in the morning line and he adds huge value to the mix here. Five weeks of rest is another plus. I will be including him on my tickets.
#18 CANDY BOY - Another California invader who has been knocking heads with California Chrome. Bumped with Chrome out of the gate in the Santa Anita Derby but was left in Chrome’s wake in the stretch. Should like the distance. Another with the profile of a late running type who would like to see a fast early pace. Has been a but compromised in recent races by an early speed bias. In his two three year old races, he has yet to run back to his best two year old sheet number and his dirt sheet numbers are middle of the pack at best. Could close to hit the bottom of the ticket but I won’t be using much here.
#19 RIDE ON CURLIN - Very consistent runner who will benefit from one of Calvin Borel’s famous rail hugging, ground saving trips. His numbers are somewhat consistent but hasn’t shown much improvement as a three year old after some very inspiring two year old efforts. Still has not won a race beyond 6 furlongs and has yet to win a graded stakes race. Was a solid second in his last in the Arkansas Derby despite a tough trip. Not sold on his chances here and will need a miraculous Borel trip to contend.
#20 WICKED STRONG - His sheet number in his most recent race, his win in the Wood Memorial, is the best single race sheet number in this field. Post 20 is a big obstacle, but he’s another strong closer so it won’t hurt him as much as it would hurt others. His best races have been in New York and he was in the best part of the track closing in the Wood. He’s another with a huge single race improvement in his last which isn’t a great pattern. Not out of the question but everything would need to go his way to win the Derby. Will probably use on bottom of tickets.
ANALYSIS: There are a few different scenarios for this years Derby, which isn't all that different from many other Derbys or horse races for that matter. The best horse DOES NOT always win. As stated earlier, pace of the race (if they are going fast or slow early) and trips determine winners.
I think there are 8 horses who can win today (in no particular order, Vicar's in Trouble, Danza, California Chrome, Samraat, General A Rod, Intense Holiday, Commander Chrome and Wicked Strong). I won't be using Danza or Wicked Strong today but winning for them is not out of the question. While there are many horses that will seem to want to be near the front, there is still the possibility that they won't all charge forward. If the early pace isn't overly fast, I favor horses like California Chrome, Samraat, Vicar's in Trouble and General A Rod. If the early pace is fast, I like Intense Holiday and Commanding Curve. I think Uncle Sigh has a chance at big odds to hit the ticket.
So there are many different directions to go. I am going to dabble in exotic bets combining my top 6 horses. Then I am going to key two scenarios. If the pace isn't too fast, I like #6 Samraat and will key him with my other top 5 horses #1 Vicar's in Trouble, #5 California Chrome, #8 General A Rod, #16 Intense Holiday and #17 Commander Curve and will also use Samraat underneath. I will also sprinkle in a little on #3 Uncle Sigh for 2nd and 3rd.
If the pace is fast, I like #16 Intense Holiday to close strongly and will key him on top with my other top 5 horses #1 Vicar's in Trouble, #5 California Chrome, #6 Samraat, #8 General A Rod and #17 Commander Curve and will also use Intense Holiday underneath while also sprinkling in a little on #3 Uncle Sigh for 2nd and 3rd.
If you don't want to spend a lot of money today, choose an angle you like and key a horse or two and if you are going to spend only a few dollars, you are better taking a shot on a horse with value.
Many sports books offer head-to-head derby bets. Here's what I played so far:
1 UNIT EACH:
SAMRAAT OVER DANZA (+110)
SAMRAAT OVER MEDAL COUNT (-135)
SAMRAAT OVER DANCE WITH FATE (-155)
GENERAL A ROD OVER WILDCAT RED (-130)
INTENSE HOLIDAY OVER TAPITURE (-150)
INTENSE HOLDIAY OVER RIDE ON CURLIN (-150)
INTENSE HOLIDAY OVER WICKED STRONG (-120)
COMMANDER CURVE OVER CANDY BOY (+130)
VICAR'S IN TROUBLE OVER WILDCAT RED (+105)
UNCLE SIGH OVER CHITU (-103)
WE MISS ARTIE OVER HARRY'S HOLIDAY (-140)
'an_horse'
Yesterday my analysis of the Kentucky Oaks was spot on, almost to the point that the write up would’ve been near perfect after the race was over. Today, there is no way to be as precise. If this race was run 20 times, I think there are 8 different horses who would show a win. Remember, pace and trips determine the outcome in races like this. If the horses go slow early on, closers from behind will not be able to gain much ground in the stretch. If the pace is fast and contentious early on, the wheels will fall off many of the front runners and closers will be at a huge advantage. Interestingly, there seems to be many front runner today, most of whom occupy the inside posts while most of the closers are in the 7 outside posts.
Here’s an overview of today’s horses with my general analysis:
#1 VICAR'S IN TROUBLE - Interesting horse with a tough post position. As the DRF says, he "might have the best mid race quarter mile of any horse in the Derby." Very athletic small horse. Has shown some versatility. Distance is a question and could vie for early lead. His wins have been on or right near the lead early. Could avoid the problems of being the rail horse in a big field due to his early speed. If any horse in this field can handle the rail, it's Vicar. Never has had to duel in the stretch in his victories. Not impossible for Napravnik to win the Oaks and Derby. Not without a chance at big odds.
#2 HARRY'S HOLIDAY - Both wins came against weak company. Was claimed in his first race in a $25-30,000 claimer. He has yet to gain ground in the stretch of any race and hasn't won past 6 1/2 furlongs. Seems over matched.
#3 UNCLE SIGH - Has 90+ Beyer Speed Figures in all 5 career starts and showed his mettle in the Withers and Gotham Stakes. Had a tough trip in the Wood Memorial but made a respectable account of himself. Adds blinkers, which has not been a solid angle for his trainer, Contessa but he needs a decent break out of the gate here. Should be heard from early and should be able to get position early and avoid the wide trip he got in the Wood Memorial. Not completely out of the question and can see him contending for a spot on the bottom part of the ticket at big odds.
#4 DANZA - Has never raced in a race with more than 7 horses in a race and showed a 21 point Beyer improvement in his most recent in the Arkansas Derby win, where he got an absolutely great trip. Has trained well this week at Churchill. Has tactical early speed to get into favorable early position. Distance is a question as his "daddy" was a Grade 1 sprinter. I wanted to originally ignore him but his strong workouts have me a bit confused. Only 3 weeks since last race and horses that improves so dramatically right before the Derby, usually bounce. Inclined to leave off most of my tickets but I guess I have to sprinkle in a little at the bottom end of my tickets.
#5 CALIFORNIA CHROME - Derby has not been kind to favorites. Only entrant with multiple three digit Beyer Figures and the highest single race Beyer in the field. He has more starts (10) than any other horse in here and shows 6 wins. Looked great in recent romps in California but some question the level of three year old competition in California this year. His recent two wins were aided by huge speed bias to front running horses at Santa Anita. In 4 of his last 5 starts, he hasn't gotten the cleanest of breaks from the gate. Not bred like a champion but he is a deserving favorite but as the favorite, he is an underlay and has a lot of questions. Don't see the value in him and while I will sprinkle him in as you have to respect, I will mostly be banking against him in the win position. Allegedly, his Wednesday training session was nothing special at Churchill. A win wouldn't surprise me but a complete flop wouldn't surprise me either. No Cal bred horse has won the Derby since 1962. I think the streak continues.
#6 SAMRAAT - Has figures on sheets that match California Chrome yet he has huge value around 15-1 or higher. Won his first 5 races before finishing 2nd in his last in the Wood Memorial. Has never gone off at higher than 3-1 so he has tremendous value here. His sheet numbers in his last 3 races make him one of the top contenders in the field. He drew well here with the 6 post. Has good early speed but can rate behind the leaders effectively. Definitely a strong contender I will be using. 'an_horse'
#7 WE MISS ARTIE - Shows synthetic and grass pedigree. Staunch closer could be helped by contentious pace. Training well but his dirt races are not inspiring. Sheet numbers on any surface just don’t look anywhere near the top ones. Not for me.
#8 GENERAL A ROD - Has hit the board in all 5 starts and has shown he's a fighter. Showing solid improvement as a 3 year old. Has good early speed like many others in here, which could lead to a contentious early pace. Distance is a concern and his running style puts him in jeopardy but his sheet numbers are very solid, among the top 3-4 horses in the race. Comes off solid rest and got a decent draw here to avoid a bad trip. Not out of the question and I will be sprinking in on my tickets.
#9 VINCEREMOS - If you ignore his flop in the Bluegrass on synthetic where he was forced wide, his 4 dirt races have yielded two firsts and two seconds. In his 4 dirt races, he never lost ground in the stretch. His sheet numbers are not all that competitive and he really hasn't beaten any noteworthy competition. Connections seemed to lack confidence waiting until last moment for decision whether to run him here. Not completely impossible, but can't use him in top 3 spots.
#10 WILDCAT RED - Outstanding early speed and in 7 races, has 4 firsts and 3 seconds. Won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in wire to wire form and got necked out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby but feeling is this one may be up against it with so much early speed up front. The fact that he drifted out badly in the stretch of the Florida Derby may suggest he won’t like this distance. However, his sheet numbers are very competitive here. One dimensional horse whose style won’t be ideal today. I will probably not be using.
#11 HOPPERTUNITY - SCRATCHED
#12 - DANCE WITH FATE - Improving colt ran his best race by far in his last at Keeneland winning the Bluegrass in impressive closing fashion in a field of 14. However, most of his best lines were on turf and Polytrack surfaces. In addition, horses who make such dramatic improvements in their most recent race, usually bounce backwards. The dramatic improvement combined with the switch in surfaces and just three weeks rest have me looking elsewhere.
#13 CHITU - Just a half length away from being undefeated with 3 firsts and 1 second in 4 lifetime races, Another horse with excellent early speed but distance is a bit of a concern, as his Daddy was a sprinter. Trainer, Bob Baffert, didn’t show a lot of confidence in this one wavering on whether or not to enter him here. Consistent sheet numbers but a notch below the top contenders. Running style and slightly slower numbers have me looking elsewhere today.
#14 MEDAL COUNT - May have the right profile in that he is a solid closer. Was compromised by a speed favoring track in the Fountain of Youth and bounced back well on the Poly surface at Keeneland to win a Grade 3 Stake on April 4th and then had a strong closing 2nd just 8 days later in the Bluegrass. His dirt figures aren’t nearly good enough here and he’s another who fits the pattern of horses making huge recent improvements in their last who tend to bounce. The fact that this is his 3rd race in a month leading in to today’s “Super Bowl” is a turn off for me. I’m looking elsewhere.
#15 TAPITURE - Consistent horse with figures below the top tier horses here. Has decent early tactical speed to avoid a bad trip and he has 3 races here at Churchill so he has familiarity. He faltered in the Arkansas Derby, his longest race so far, so today’s Derby may not be to his liking. His Grade 3 win earlier this year was a rail skimming ride where he saved ground. Nothing overly inspiring here and the fact that he comes in off three weeks rest has me looking elsewhere.
#16 INTENSE HOLIDAY - With a lot of horses signed on today with early speed, the profile of the winner may be a horse who saves ground and closes. If you subscribe to these race dynamics, you need to take a long look at Intense Holiday. He overcame a slow paced race and won the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans with a 5 wide long sustained rally getting up in the final stride to win by a nose in a field of 14. He was favored in the Louisiana Derby and was bumped mid-race and got away from his closing strategy by being close up early on and finished a solid 2nd to Vicar’s in Trouble. He’s been working very sharply this week and picks up the services of the well respected Johnny Velazquez. His sheet number in the Risen Star puts him in the top category of horses here and he comes in with 5 weeks of rest. Will definitely be including him strongly on my tickets. 'an_horse'
#17 COMMANDING CURVE - Has 3 races over this Churchill oval and two around two turns which is advantageous experience. He had an impossible trip in the Risen Star and was bumped at the break in the Louisiana Derby and was 4 wide on the second turn but still managed to finish 3rd. Again, if you believe there will be a fast and contentious early pace, this is another with the right come from behind style. His sheets numbers have steadily improved every race and his best sheet number is not that much behind the top few horses. i do not see why this horse is 50-1 in the morning line and he adds huge value to the mix here. Five weeks of rest is another plus. I will be including him on my tickets.
#18 CANDY BOY - Another California invader who has been knocking heads with California Chrome. Bumped with Chrome out of the gate in the Santa Anita Derby but was left in Chrome’s wake in the stretch. Should like the distance. Another with the profile of a late running type who would like to see a fast early pace. Has been a but compromised in recent races by an early speed bias. In his two three year old races, he has yet to run back to his best two year old sheet number and his dirt sheet numbers are middle of the pack at best. Could close to hit the bottom of the ticket but I won’t be using much here.
#19 RIDE ON CURLIN - Very consistent runner who will benefit from one of Calvin Borel’s famous rail hugging, ground saving trips. His numbers are somewhat consistent but hasn’t shown much improvement as a three year old after some very inspiring two year old efforts. Still has not won a race beyond 6 furlongs and has yet to win a graded stakes race. Was a solid second in his last in the Arkansas Derby despite a tough trip. Not sold on his chances here and will need a miraculous Borel trip to contend.
#20 WICKED STRONG - His sheet number in his most recent race, his win in the Wood Memorial, is the best single race sheet number in this field. Post 20 is a big obstacle, but he’s another strong closer so it won’t hurt him as much as it would hurt others. His best races have been in New York and he was in the best part of the track closing in the Wood. He’s another with a huge single race improvement in his last which isn’t a great pattern. Not out of the question but everything would need to go his way to win the Derby. Will probably use on bottom of tickets.
ANALYSIS: There are a few different scenarios for this years Derby, which isn't all that different from many other Derbys or horse races for that matter. The best horse DOES NOT always win. As stated earlier, pace of the race (if they are going fast or slow early) and trips determine winners.
I think there are 8 horses who can win today (in no particular order, Vicar's in Trouble, Danza, California Chrome, Samraat, General A Rod, Intense Holiday, Commander Chrome and Wicked Strong). I won't be using Danza or Wicked Strong today but winning for them is not out of the question. While there are many horses that will seem to want to be near the front, there is still the possibility that they won't all charge forward. If the early pace isn't overly fast, I favor horses like California Chrome, Samraat, Vicar's in Trouble and General A Rod. If the early pace is fast, I like Intense Holiday and Commanding Curve. I think Uncle Sigh has a chance at big odds to hit the ticket.
So there are many different directions to go. I am going to dabble in exotic bets combining my top 6 horses. Then I am going to key two scenarios. If the pace isn't too fast, I like #6 Samraat and will key him with my other top 5 horses #1 Vicar's in Trouble, #5 California Chrome, #8 General A Rod, #16 Intense Holiday and #17 Commander Curve and will also use Samraat underneath. I will also sprinkle in a little on #3 Uncle Sigh for 2nd and 3rd.
If the pace is fast, I like #16 Intense Holiday to close strongly and will key him on top with my other top 5 horses #1 Vicar's in Trouble, #5 California Chrome, #6 Samraat, #8 General A Rod and #17 Commander Curve and will also use Intense Holiday underneath while also sprinkling in a little on #3 Uncle Sigh for 2nd and 3rd.
If you don't want to spend a lot of money today, choose an angle you like and key a horse or two and if you are going to spend only a few dollars, you are better taking a shot on a horse with value.
Many sports books offer head-to-head derby bets. Here's what I played so far:
1 UNIT EACH:
SAMRAAT OVER DANZA (+110)
SAMRAAT OVER MEDAL COUNT (-135)
SAMRAAT OVER DANCE WITH FATE (-155)
GENERAL A ROD OVER WILDCAT RED (-130)
INTENSE HOLIDAY OVER TAPITURE (-150)
INTENSE HOLDIAY OVER RIDE ON CURLIN (-150)
INTENSE HOLIDAY OVER WICKED STRONG (-120)
COMMANDER CURVE OVER CANDY BOY (+130)
VICAR'S IN TROUBLE OVER WILDCAT RED (+105)
UNCLE SIGH OVER CHITU (-103)
WE MISS ARTIE OVER HARRY'S HOLIDAY (-140)
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