2014 Golf Suicide pool

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Did this pool last year and had a lot of fun with it. Tried to track it here and post a bunch, but forgot several times and just didn't post the last few tourneys. Will try to do better this season.

Pool works like this: pick one golfer per tournament from the Honda until the Tour Championship. Placement is based on earnings. Can only pick a golfer once. Top 10% in pool get money.

Last season, the winner had $9.914 million in earnings on 5 wins, 9 top 5, 14 top 10, and had 28 made cuts out of 29 events. The last player in the money had $6.816 million in earnings on 3 wins, 8 top 5, 9 top 10 and 26 cuts out of 29. I had $5.326 million in earnings on 1 win, 7 top 5, 11 top 10, and 25 out of 29 cuts.

I'm not sure my strategy was very good last year, so I hope to improve on it this year and finish in the money. Obviously there is a large element of luck involved in picking winners. Last season I had Zach Johnson at the John Deere, where Spieth dunks a bunker shot on the 72nd hole to force a playoff. T-2 is a lot different than the W money wise. Also had Dustin Johnson when he tripled the 71st hole with a 2 shot lead in Canada. I think I got a little too cute last year picking darkhorses and trying to save certain golfers, and I ended up having several solid golfers that I didn't pick because I picked folks like Tim Clark in Memphis (MC, by the way). So this year, I'm going to focus less on saving golfers and pick guys when they are playing well.

Thoughts and comments are certainly welcome, and I will be using some of the other threads on this forum to help me narrow down my choices each week
 
Tournament/Golfer/Place/Earnings:

Honda: Sergio Garcia T-8 $168,000
Doral: Adam Scott T-25 $76,000
Valspar: Webb Simpson MC $0
Bay Hill: Bubba Watson WD $0
Valero: Charley Hoffman T11 $136,400
SHO: Keegan Bradley T43 $18,374
Masters: Jason Day T20 $101,160
Heritage: Luke Donald 2 $626,400
New Orleans: Graham DeLaet T-29 $44,200
Wells Fargo: Lee Westwood MC
The Players: Henrik Stenson T-34 $52,750
Byron Nelson: Jimmy Walker T-37 $30,403
Colonial: Matt Kuchar MC
Memorial: Justin Rose MC
FedEx St. Jude: Billy Horschel T6 $181,540
US Open: Rory McIlroy T23 $79,968
Traveler's: Hunter Mahan MC
Quicken loans: Brandt Snedeker T-21 $72,800
Greenbrier: Brendan Todd T4 $227,036
John Deere: Steve Stricker T11 $112,800
Open Championship: Graeme McDowell T-9 $192,492
RBC Canadian Open: Charl Schwartzel T-43 $16,986
Bridgestone Invitational: Jim Furyk T-15 $97,500
PGA Championship: Rickie Fowler T-3 $580,000
Wyndham: Bill Haas T-2 $466,400
Barclay's: Ryan Moore MC
Deutsche Bank: Jordan Spieth

​Total: $3,281,209

​


Golfers Used:

Sergio Garcia
Adam Scott
Webb Simpson
Bubba Watson
Charley Hoffman
Keegan Bradley
Jason Day
Luke Donald
Graham DeLaet
Lee Westwood
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Matt Kuchar
Justin Rose
Billy Horschel
Rory McIlroy
Hunter Mahan
Brandt Snedeker
Brendan Todd
Steve Stricker
Graeme McDowell
Charl Schwartzel
Jim Furyk
Rickie Fowler
Bill Haas
Ryan Moore
Jordan Spieth
 
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Picked Sergio for the honda. Hope he continues his good play. If the wind picks up, ball striking will be at a premium and he's one of the best
 
After a bad start and a near MC, Segio played the weekend in -5 while everyone else went backwards and managed a T-8. More importantly, Rory was the only golfer selected in the pool ahead of Sergio, and he didn't get the win, so all in all, a very successful opening week.

Onto Doral. The WGC events are basically majors in terms of the field and money, so all the top guys are in play. I'm trying to get my own PRs for each tournament at the beginning of the week and then make my selections from there. To come up with these, I'm basically just looking at two factors: current form and course history. They will not include golfers I have already used. For Doral, my PR looks like this:
1. Adam Scott 2. Graeme McDowell 3. Tiger 4. Justin Rose 5. Dustin Johnson 6. Bubba 7. Rory 8. Schwartzel 9. Keegan 10. Stricker/Mickelson/Day/

Injury concerns scare me off of Tiger and Rose, so I'll keep an eye on injury reports this week before I seriously consider them. 5-10 are kind of arbitrarily ordered, so I'm not really putting much emphasis on how they're ranked, just that they are in my top 10 this week and are potential selections.
 
How many US events is Schwartzel playing this year? If I remember correctly he isn't exactly a regular so it might be nice to use him while you can
 
Schrute said:
How many US events is Schwartzel playing this year? If I remember correctly he isn't exactly a regular so it might be nice to use him while you can
Click to expand...

I don't know off the top of my head, but I think you're right that it's not many. I actually used him in this tournament last year. Schwartzel has played well here before, but he only has one win ever on the PGA Tour (2011 Masters). With this elite and limited field, it is a near certainty that whomever wins will have been selected by a number of those in the pool. The name of the game is wins, and I don't know if I trust Charl to win. Top 10 is nice, but it's losing ground
 
Schwartzel played in 19 PGA events last year. Don't know if he is changing that this season, but thus far, it looks like he's kept the same schedule. There's 4 majors, 2 more WGC events (not counting the one in China) and up to 4 FedEx Cup events. Also throw in The Players, and there's at least 11 more events that he's likely planning to play.

Just saw that Adam Scott can overtake Tiger for world #1 this weekend, so I guess there's that added incentive to Scott. My guess is that Scott will be the #1 PR on golf channel and/or pgatour.com, so he will likely be the #1 player selected in the pool. Doesn't mean I won't take him though
 
I think DJ might have a good week. Tiger and Rose might be too risky here considering all your other options
 
I'm taking Adam Scott at doral. I feel like he's a safe bet to finish in the top 10-15, and is obviously a threat to win anytime he tees it up. Money-wise, this is worth more than a major so I need a good showing here.
 
Not quite worse case scenario, but not a good result at Doral. Never good when you use one of the top guys and he puts forth a mediocre effort, because I feel confident that Adam will have a big victory this year, at least one. But fortunately, nobody in the pool picked Reed, so I'm not that far behind. Will start diving into the Valspar today. Obviously there are some guys that have a great history there, and if memory serves, Innisbrook is more about ball striking and accuracy than most of the other Florida tour stops.
 
I wrote out my top 10 for innisbrook Monday morning, and when pgatour.com released theirs, we shared 9 out of the top 10. Guess we look at the same data. Anyway, my top 5 are: Webb, Dufner, English, Furyk, and Donald. Leaning the first two, although this course does yield multiple winners (Choi, Goosen) so wouldn't surprise to see Donald or Furyk get their 2nd win here
 
Took Webb Simpson. He's done well here before and is playing really well outside if the first two days at doral
 
Well, great pick. Guess I wasn't going to go the whole season without someone missing the cut. Glad it was one of these tournaments that doesn't have a huge pot or an elite field. Gives me extra time to look at Bay Hill
 
Dodged a bullet at Innisbrook since nobody in the pool had anything better than a T-4. Through three tournaments, nobody has picked a winner, so it's still anyone's game. Bay Hill has a pretty good field. Obviously Tiger has the history here, and it sounds like he got a good report from his back treatments this week. Still a little hesitant to pick him, even with his dominance here. My top 10 PR looks like this:
1)Tiger
2)Bubba
3)Rose
4)McDowell
5)English
6)Fowler
7)Ryan Moore
8)Stenson
9)Reed
10)Day

Likely picking one of the top 4, unless something catches my eye in the next few days
 
Taking Bubba. Course is supposedly major-like condition, so I'm hoping bubba's length gives him an advantage here
 
Well that was quick. Bubba with an 11 and is +11 for the tournament with half the field to tee off. Knew I should have taken someone else. Going to be an uphill climb from here on out
 
Took Charley Hoffman at Valero. Great history on the course, hasn't been playing great, but hasn't been playing terribly. After the last 2 weeks, I'd just like a made cut
 
Hoffman was a "safe" pick at Valero, and he performed as such. Never really threatened the top of the leaderboard, but made the cut pretty stress free, and improved his position all weekend and ended up just outside the top 10. Think he has been T13 or better there 5 years in a row. Moving onto the Shell Houston Open. Surprisingly good field the week before the Masters. I think they say Redstone CC is purposely set up similar to Augusta to attract more players. Actually think it's called CC of Houston now. Anyway, without knowing much about the course, if it's similar to ANGC, I'm guessing long hitters will be at an advantage here, in addition to a hot putter. Going through the field, past performance, and current form, I have a working power ranking of:

Stenson: top 3 in 2 of last 3 trips here, seemed to get game going at Doral and Bay Hill
DJ: T4 last year, been playing consistent all season, definitely feel he'll be focused to get his game ready for the Masters
Kuchar: playing well, couple of top 8 finishes here
Spieth: no real history here, and hasn't played great this season, but real impressed with how he bounced back after bogeying first 5 holes at Valero, turned it into a top 10 finish
Keegan: 2nd at Bay Hill, T4 here in 2012. He's got to turn one of these top 20s into a win at some point right?
Schwartzel: another guy who seems to be rounding into good form, T3 in 2010
Mahan: former winner of event, top 10s in nearly every event he's played this season. Would be higher but WD last time out, and I'm worried that a WD would happen again if injury flared up

Chance of re-aggravating an injury leading to a WD keeps me away from Phil, and likely Mahan, those as a former winner, Hunter might try to tough it out. Rory is interesting, but he's on my short list for the Masters, so will keep him in my pocket this week.

As always, comments and discussion welcome
 
Went back and forth with Keegan, Spieth, and Stenson, and finally landed on Keegan. Good history here, hits it long, playing well right now. Saving Henrik for either a major or sawgrass. Spieth is so consistent, probably doesn't matter where I use him
 
Keegan followed a bogey-free 66 on Thursday with 76, 74, 72 and finished at a cool T-43. But once again this season, dodged a bullet with an unpicked player winning the tournament. Amazing how many top golfers have choked away leads on Sunday this year. Could make the back 9 on Sunday at the Masters even more entertaining than usual. Maybe another 2011.

Speaking of the Masters, my working PR is as follows: Rory, Day, Kuchar, Phil, and Snedeker. 3 guys who have been knocking on the door of their first major for a couple of seasons, Phil who has the history at the course, and Rory who has the ability to run away from a major championship field, but hasn't had the success at Augusta that you would expect. Should be a great tournament even without Tiger, and I'm lucky enough to be attending the Wednesday practice round for the second year in a row.
 
Very interesting pool, BOL gps3 looking forward to the Masters. I'm in a Master's pool where I have to pick one player out of 6 tiers based on Top 60 World Golf Rankings. I have Mickleson, Watson, Els, Haas, Henley and Leishman in one pool and Day, Kuchar, Els, Mahan, Molinari and Stallings in another. Object is to have 5/6 make the cut and post the best score for your team. If you end up with less than 5 making the cut, you get an imputed score added on which equals worst round of the day for Rounds 3 and 4. Should be fun and some of the tiers were tough to pick from trying to find someone who could possibly make the cut.
 
Jason Day never threatened, but at least he made the cut unlike some other big names. Definitely been a weird year this year. Heritage has already started, and I forgot to post, I guess due to being busy making up for missing days last week while attending Wednesday's practice round. If you ever get a chance to go, do it. It's unbelievable and is one of the few things that not only meets expectations, but exceeds them.

For Heritage, I only really considered Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, and Matt Kuchar. The first two have great histories at the course, and Kuchar is the best Thurs-Sat golfer in the world right now. Ended up taking Luke, because looking at the remaining schedule, I don't see a tournament where I'd take him, and Furyk and Kuchar definitely have relevance on the remaining schedule
 
Thanks Law. Thought I had it when Kuchar knocked it in the bunker on his approach to 18. If he doesn't knock it in, I'm not so sure he doesn't 3 jack again. Oh well. Can't be too upset with solo 2nd. Interestingly, that's the 3rd top 3 for Luke when the winner shot 64 on Sunday

Not a real awe inspiring field for New Orleans. Right now looking at DeLaet, Fowler, and Stadler. Will see if any other names jump out after some more research
 
Is Twank playing this week in Nawlins? Could be a decent pick. :thinking:

Toms used to dominate this even back in the day.

Little Rickie Fowler is the play this weekend.
 
Took DeLaet. This tournament has been kind to players seeking their first win and Graham is overdue. Easy course by tour player standards and GD makes a lot of birdies.
 
Freaking Graham DeLaet. The rest of the field was pouring in birdies all weekend and DeLaet was grinding out pars like it was the US Open. Seriously, he led the field in GIR at nearly 90%, hitting 63 of 72 greens over the course of the tournament. Probably led the field in 2 putt pars too. If he wants his first win, he's going to have to get better with the flat stick.

Wells Fargo typically has a pretty good field. Haven't dived in too deep yet
 
Picked Lee Westwood based on current form and course history. Thought he was going to be kind of a dark horse pick until pgatour.com and golf channel started trumping him up.
 
Well, the Westwood pick didn't pan out. Had some runs where I thought he was going to compete, but multiple doubles on Friday ruined him. Still nobody running away with the pool thanks to this being one of the worst runs of winners in recent memory. Think only 2 winners from the top 20 since January. The Players is an interesting tournament. Obviously a great field, but the course doesn't really favor any one type of player, and looking at past results, a lot of great players miss the cut every season. Only a handful a repeat winners as well. So far, my top 5 is Henrik, Rory, Kuchar, Justin Rose, and Spieth. Will look into it further, but I can't see me taking anyone else.
 
Going with Stenson at the Players. Really considered Rory, but I don't trust his short game right now. Stenson is a great ball-striker, and he is obviously comfortable at this course. All reports are that the course is playing very receptive and Stenson hits fairways and greens. I expect scoring to be good, and it looks like it is so far this morning
 
Really struggled on who to pick this week. Spieth seemed like the obvious choice, but for some reason, I have spent the last year not picking Jordan. I'm counting on the post-Sawgrass let down for a reason not to pick him. Will look at him hard next week at Colonial and onward. Course doesn't really favor any particular type of player, just got to make putts. Looking at current form and with an eye to future events, I picked Jimmy Walker for the Byron Nelson. Leads the tour in strokes gained putting, top 5 in birdie average, obviously is in the midst of a career year, and this is somewhat of a home game. Now that I have not picked Spieth, once again, he'll go out and get a top 5
 
I've been pretty good at selecting players that make the cut but don't scare the front page of the leaderboard so far this year. Doing this pool and following a specific player each weekend, that's not necessarily near the top of the leaderboard and thus not on TV, has given me a great appreciation for how hard this game is. Walker was bombing driver all week 300+. Often had less than 150 yds in. Either sprayed a wedge 60 feet from the hole, or two putted from inside 12 feet. More of those putts go in, or he hits it s little closer on a few holes, he's right there on Sunday.

Anyway, I need a good finish soon, even though we are still shy of the halfway point. Looking at Colonial, Zach Johnson has to be the favorite. Last 5 at this tournament: 3, 1, 4, 1, 9. The question is do I use him here, or wait until the John Deere, where he has just as an impressive record, plus it's a weaker field being the week before the British. Kuchar, Furyk, Spieth, and Dustin Johnson round out my current top 5 after my Monday morning research.
 
I correctly assumed that Zach and Furyk would be the most popular picks in the pool, so I went with Kuchar. Not much to say about this pick. He's easily the most consistent golfer in the world right now, and has played well at colonial: 7 for 7 cuts made, solo 2nd last year. Looks like I'll hold onto Zach until the John Deere, and have multiple spots to use Furyk, maybe Memorial next week
 
Just my luck, I picked Kuchar for his only MC of the season. Only time outside the top 30 or something too. Tough year so far, but plenty of time to make a move. Went with Justin Rose for Memorial. A little worried about the Euros coming over after the BMW in England, but I figure most of these guys fly private jets Sunday night and are in bed in Columbus by 10 pm US time. Rose has a great history here including a win, and has been playing well since coming back from injury. I need a good finish so hopefully his form holds
 
At this point, I might as well throw a dart to pick my player. Pretty sure I have picked about 5 guys who had their worst performance of the year the week I picked them. Not that he was in contention, but Justin Rose MC by one stroke, partly because he gave himself a penalty for a double hit on a chip. The video appears to show that he did not in fact double hit. Awesome.

Picked Billy Horschel this week. His game has been trending upward, and once he gets hot, he is a fixture at the top of the leaderboard. Almost picked Ryan Palmer because of his history at the St Judes, but don't like his putter.

Now that I've made this week's selection, I am going to start looking at next week. The obvious pick is Phil, and I'm sure that 75% of my pool will have him. All the one and done picks I look at online seem to have had him penciled in since the season started. I'm not against picking Phil, but with so many picking him in the pool, next week is an opportunity for me to gain a ton of ground if I make a good pick and Phil struggles. Of course, it could backfire if he wins. I want to see how he plays this week before I decide. It seems that the last few years, his play the week before a major is a pretty good indicator as to how he'll play the following week. Other players to consider are Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, and Rory. I like Furyk's game for the US Open, but wonder if he's long enough for Pinehurst. That's where Rory comes into play. He's certainly long enough, and he's been putting well from 15+ feet all year (may lead the tour). I worry about him putting 4 rounds together though. Anyway, I have a week to think about it and change my mind a dozen times. Any comments are welcome
 
I had already decided to not use Phil, so he never came into my mind the last few days. Decided on Rory. Hope he can put together 4 solid rounds
 
Took Hunter Mahan at the Traveler's. All time leading money winner here. Might as well throw a dart at this point
 
Late post. Wife gave birth earlier this week, haven't gotten around to posting. Took Snedeker
 
Taking Brendan Todd at Greenbrier. Been on fire lately, hopefully I don't jinx him
 
Finally got a decent finish. With the John Deere, there are only two players to consider: Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker. Likely going with Stricker
 
Unbelievable Sunday round from Stricker last week. Through 15 holes, he was the only player in the field without a birdie. Could not believe it.

I debated using several players for the Open. Had to consider the remaining events as that most of them have large paydays. Ended up taking Graeme McDowell, which seems like it may have been a bad call after his 1st round. All trends were pointing up for him leading into this tournament, but going to likely need a good round tomorrow just to make the cut.
 
If you had told me on Thursday afternoon that GMac would get a top 10 finish, I'd have been ecstatic, so can't complain too much. Several of the high finishers, including Rory, were unavailable to me, so nothing to complain about there either. Only if I had trusted Fowler. Oh well

Picked Charl Schwartzel for Canadian Open. Furyk and DJ are popular picks, but I have them penciled into tournaments on the horizon that have larger purses
 
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