GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
I never find the Preakness even half as exciting as the Derby because of the much smaller field but I do think this is an interesting race.
#1 ORB - Has become everyone's darling and was one of my top choices for the Derby and he didn't disappoint. Had an eye-popping workout Monday which may suggest he is even sharper coming into this race. Versatile horse who can storm from far back like he did in the Derby or can sit close to the front. Rail position isn't always the easiest but it will insure that he doesn't lose ground in the turns. He has now won 5 straight and it's tough to see him out of the mix but you won't be getting bang for your buck in value, as he will be the heavy favorite. Had a wide trip in the Derby and he would have won for fun with an easier ground saving trip. If he runs his race, there is only one other horse in the field who shows he can run a similar speed figure and there[s a good chance he won't find traffic problems and won't have a wide trip. He's a deserving favorite and an obvious must use in exotic bets and the likely winner.
#2 GOLDENCENTS - Was impressive winner in the Santa Anita Derby but was nowhere to be found in the Derby and was eased. Would have to make an astonishing recovery here. Expect to see him try to fire early and carry his speed but even his best, wouldn't beat several in here if they run their races. Trainer O'Neill was the buzz around the paddock a year ago, but his 15 minutes of fame are past and I'm not in love with this horse although think he will be in the mix until the middle to deep stretch. He's the strongest of the early speed horses so he wouldn't shock me if he hits the ticket but he would have to run a career best to beat the top contenders and I am willing to take a stand against.
#3 TITLETOWN FIVE - Only win came in a maiden race 8 months ago and has basically fired blanks in his three races this year. 5 of his 7 races were sprints and his speed figures in his two routes leave him in the dust here. Speed figures are far behind the contenders and he seems in over his head. High profile trainer in D. Wayne Lukas and football legend, Paul Hornung is in the ownership group. In his playing days, I might have given Hornung a better chance here than TTown5. May be the fastest leaving the gate but don't see him having any say in the finish.
#4 DEPARTING - Didn't make his debut until December 22nd and has won 4 of 5 including the Illinois Derby and all 4 wins were impressive scores. Shown a big improvement on Lasix and has come a long way in a short time. Seems to have a penchant for coming wide and if he can save some ground he could be in the mix. His one loss was in the Louisiana Derby to Revolutionary and Mylute. Fresh horse having not run in derby and a local Maryland horse but he hasn't proven he can beat the big boys yet but to his credit, his speed figures have improved in all 5 races, although his best is about 3 sheet figures behind the best of the top contenders. Has a shot but at best I will consider for the bottom of the ticket.
#5 MYLUTE - Has shown solid closing finishes in the Louisiana Derby where he finished 2nd and in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 5th, but just a length from 2nd in the Derby. Has solid speed figures and his Derby figure was the 2nd best in the race, but his best so far is slightly below the top two contenders. The Rosie Napravnik angle will still get a lot of play here and if she can give this colt a good ground saving trip, he a definite contender. Shows a very nice and steady pattern of races. Can see him hitting the ticket and may play a small saver with him on top but will use on the bottom part of the ticket primarily. My 3rd choice.
#6 OXBOW - If you consider how torrid the pace was in the Derby, this colt was the only one in the top speed group who hung around late and held on 6th but you can also say he was the horse that may have saved the most ground throughout with a rail hugging trip. He actually stuck a head in front at the top of the stretch and he should make his presence felt in the early stages however this is his 10th race in 7 months and with the quick turnaround since the Derby, I am not expecting his best effort and even his best, is about three sheet figures below the top contenders. One of D. Wayne Lukas' three horses in this race and will be vying for the early lead but don't see him having a strong say so in the final outcome. May be worth a saver ticket on the bottom part of trifectas but I will most likely not be using much money on him at all.
#7 WILL TAKE CHARGE - The Derby was his first race past 1 1/16 miles and he was forced to check late when Verrazano came into his lane and cost him any chances and he finished 8th but likely would've fired his best figure. Switches to Hall of Fame jockey, Mike Smith and is the 3rd D. Wayne Lukas horse entered. Had 7 weeks off prior to the Derby and should be somewhat fresh but the quick turnaround in 2 weeks here is a bit of a concern. He hasn't fired a speed figure as sharp as the top contenders; in fact his best speed figure is about 4 sheet numbers below the top contenders. Will get some tote board action as the "wiseguy horse" and he has an outside chance, but I will use him mostly on the bottom of the exotics but not in a major way.
#8 GOVERNOR CHARLIE - Has run just three times but won the Sunland Park Derby in track-record time. Missed the Derby with a foot bruise. Has some solid 6 furlong works and expect to see him as a pace factor. Hasn't shown he can tackle the big boys and coming in off a layoff and foot injury without a great body of work makes me skeptical. His best figure is still about 5 sheet numbers lower than the top contenders. Not impossible, but I am taking a stand against.
#9 ITSMYLUCKYDAY - Call me stubborn or maybe loyal as this was my Derby horse and he flopped and finished 15th but I still like him and am willing to ignore the Derby and say maybe he just didn't like the slop. He and Orb have the best speed figures on their past performances and if he fires, he has the talent to win this. Has one of the best jockeys in the land in John Velazquez. He won the Gulfstream Park Derby by almost 7 and won the Holy Bull by 2 and is the most experienced horse in the race. Worked extremely well at Monmouth Park on Monday which gives confidence he will fire a solid shot today. His past sheet numbers clearly indicate that if he runs his race, he is right there with Orb and there is no doubt he offers much more value. I think he will rebound solidly and I will be playing him and Orb equally on top of exotic bets.
I will be making a huge bet on an exacta box with Orb and Itsmyluckyday!
I will follow up with exactas with both Orb and Itsmyluckyday on top of Mylute and small savers with Mylute on top of both.
I will also play some trifectas and supers using Orb and Itsmyluckyday with Mylute, Departing. Will Take Charge and Goldencents.
#1 ORB - Has become everyone's darling and was one of my top choices for the Derby and he didn't disappoint. Had an eye-popping workout Monday which may suggest he is even sharper coming into this race. Versatile horse who can storm from far back like he did in the Derby or can sit close to the front. Rail position isn't always the easiest but it will insure that he doesn't lose ground in the turns. He has now won 5 straight and it's tough to see him out of the mix but you won't be getting bang for your buck in value, as he will be the heavy favorite. Had a wide trip in the Derby and he would have won for fun with an easier ground saving trip. If he runs his race, there is only one other horse in the field who shows he can run a similar speed figure and there[s a good chance he won't find traffic problems and won't have a wide trip. He's a deserving favorite and an obvious must use in exotic bets and the likely winner.
#2 GOLDENCENTS - Was impressive winner in the Santa Anita Derby but was nowhere to be found in the Derby and was eased. Would have to make an astonishing recovery here. Expect to see him try to fire early and carry his speed but even his best, wouldn't beat several in here if they run their races. Trainer O'Neill was the buzz around the paddock a year ago, but his 15 minutes of fame are past and I'm not in love with this horse although think he will be in the mix until the middle to deep stretch. He's the strongest of the early speed horses so he wouldn't shock me if he hits the ticket but he would have to run a career best to beat the top contenders and I am willing to take a stand against.
#3 TITLETOWN FIVE - Only win came in a maiden race 8 months ago and has basically fired blanks in his three races this year. 5 of his 7 races were sprints and his speed figures in his two routes leave him in the dust here. Speed figures are far behind the contenders and he seems in over his head. High profile trainer in D. Wayne Lukas and football legend, Paul Hornung is in the ownership group. In his playing days, I might have given Hornung a better chance here than TTown5. May be the fastest leaving the gate but don't see him having any say in the finish.
#4 DEPARTING - Didn't make his debut until December 22nd and has won 4 of 5 including the Illinois Derby and all 4 wins were impressive scores. Shown a big improvement on Lasix and has come a long way in a short time. Seems to have a penchant for coming wide and if he can save some ground he could be in the mix. His one loss was in the Louisiana Derby to Revolutionary and Mylute. Fresh horse having not run in derby and a local Maryland horse but he hasn't proven he can beat the big boys yet but to his credit, his speed figures have improved in all 5 races, although his best is about 3 sheet figures behind the best of the top contenders. Has a shot but at best I will consider for the bottom of the ticket.
#5 MYLUTE - Has shown solid closing finishes in the Louisiana Derby where he finished 2nd and in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 5th, but just a length from 2nd in the Derby. Has solid speed figures and his Derby figure was the 2nd best in the race, but his best so far is slightly below the top two contenders. The Rosie Napravnik angle will still get a lot of play here and if she can give this colt a good ground saving trip, he a definite contender. Shows a very nice and steady pattern of races. Can see him hitting the ticket and may play a small saver with him on top but will use on the bottom part of the ticket primarily. My 3rd choice.
#6 OXBOW - If you consider how torrid the pace was in the Derby, this colt was the only one in the top speed group who hung around late and held on 6th but you can also say he was the horse that may have saved the most ground throughout with a rail hugging trip. He actually stuck a head in front at the top of the stretch and he should make his presence felt in the early stages however this is his 10th race in 7 months and with the quick turnaround since the Derby, I am not expecting his best effort and even his best, is about three sheet figures below the top contenders. One of D. Wayne Lukas' three horses in this race and will be vying for the early lead but don't see him having a strong say so in the final outcome. May be worth a saver ticket on the bottom part of trifectas but I will most likely not be using much money on him at all.
#7 WILL TAKE CHARGE - The Derby was his first race past 1 1/16 miles and he was forced to check late when Verrazano came into his lane and cost him any chances and he finished 8th but likely would've fired his best figure. Switches to Hall of Fame jockey, Mike Smith and is the 3rd D. Wayne Lukas horse entered. Had 7 weeks off prior to the Derby and should be somewhat fresh but the quick turnaround in 2 weeks here is a bit of a concern. He hasn't fired a speed figure as sharp as the top contenders; in fact his best speed figure is about 4 sheet numbers below the top contenders. Will get some tote board action as the "wiseguy horse" and he has an outside chance, but I will use him mostly on the bottom of the exotics but not in a major way.
#8 GOVERNOR CHARLIE - Has run just three times but won the Sunland Park Derby in track-record time. Missed the Derby with a foot bruise. Has some solid 6 furlong works and expect to see him as a pace factor. Hasn't shown he can tackle the big boys and coming in off a layoff and foot injury without a great body of work makes me skeptical. His best figure is still about 5 sheet numbers lower than the top contenders. Not impossible, but I am taking a stand against.
#9 ITSMYLUCKYDAY - Call me stubborn or maybe loyal as this was my Derby horse and he flopped and finished 15th but I still like him and am willing to ignore the Derby and say maybe he just didn't like the slop. He and Orb have the best speed figures on their past performances and if he fires, he has the talent to win this. Has one of the best jockeys in the land in John Velazquez. He won the Gulfstream Park Derby by almost 7 and won the Holy Bull by 2 and is the most experienced horse in the race. Worked extremely well at Monmouth Park on Monday which gives confidence he will fire a solid shot today. His past sheet numbers clearly indicate that if he runs his race, he is right there with Orb and there is no doubt he offers much more value. I think he will rebound solidly and I will be playing him and Orb equally on top of exotic bets.
I will be making a huge bet on an exacta box with Orb and Itsmyluckyday!
I will follow up with exactas with both Orb and Itsmyluckyday on top of Mylute and small savers with Mylute on top of both.
I will also play some trifectas and supers using Orb and Itsmyluckyday with Mylute, Departing. Will Take Charge and Goldencents.
