2013 MLB Projections/Picks/Ratings

  • Thread starter Thread starter ebemiss
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ebemiss

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The numbers below are generated from each team’s overall ranking, bullpen, starting pitcher, park factor, offense and more.

I’ve recently added more projections to the daily numbers. Along with the line and total I’ve now added: -Score for each team
-projection for runs/hits/errors
-Chance of a score in the 1st inning and the money line connected with that.

I'm looking for help finding patterns (good or bad) with these numbers, especially the newer numbers I've added. I use the numbers as a guide with my handicapping and don't just follow them blindly. That being said I'm trying to beat the closing line, with these projections, on each game and generate positive results.

Here are the daily numbers with these factors added in. (Numbers get a little bunched in this format but you’ll see next to each team a run score and a money line if that team is projected to be the favorite.)


4/7 projections

Away-- Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg -115 3.7
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto 3.63



Projected Game Total 7.33

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.43% 111


Away-- Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez 3.52
Home-- New York Mets Aaron Laffey -152 4.14



Projected Game Total 7.67

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.56% 106


Away-- Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 2.97
Home-- Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson -181 4.02



Projected Game Total 6.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.24
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.28% 116


Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy 3.74
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo -113 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.17
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.09% 108


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke 3.07
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu -164 3.87



Projected Game Total 6.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.14
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.09% 117


Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright 3.09
Home-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -125 3.31



Projected Game Total 6.4

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 44.27% 126


Away-- San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez 5.17
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin -137 5.57



Projected Game Total 10.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 59.04% -144


Away-- Oakland Athletics Brett Anderson -149 4.3
Home-- Houston Astros Lucas Harrell 3.72



Projected Game Total 8.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.79% 101


Away-- New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia 2.89
Home-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -190 4.08



Projected Game Total 6.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.21% 116


Away-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester 3.75
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey -128 4.02



Projected Game Total 7.77

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.6
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.92% 104


Away-- Minnesota Twins Pedro Hernandez 3.83
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel -168 4.69



Projected Game Total 8.52

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.9
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.46% -106


Away-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson 2.84
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays David Price -192 4.06



Projected Game Total 6.9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.07
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.94% 118


Away-- Seattle Mariners Hisahi Iwakuma 3.33
Home-- Chicago White Sox Chris Sale -141 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.12

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.46
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.71% 114


Away-- Los Angeles Angels Jered Weaver 4.28
Home-- Texas Rangers Yu Darvish -123 4.48



Projected Game Total 8.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.28% -110


Away-- Kansas City Royals James Shields 3.29
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -140 3.74



Projected Game Total 7.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.31
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.41% 115
 
Just checked a couple of the added stats, I just started projecting, (total r/h/e and team run totals) and they did pretty good in today's games.

-r/h/e using 5 dimes lines went 10-4 with a projection of 27.33 for tonight's game. Making that an over lean
-using my team run projection for each game those numbers went 15-12-1

I think it's something to take a look at daily and I'm going to continue to track it as best as I can. We'll see how it goes.
 
4.8 numbers

Projected Line

Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Marco Estrada -117 3.89
Home-- Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.45
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.63% 106


Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 3.58
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia -133 3.92



Projected Game Total 7.5

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.12
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48% 108


Away-- New York Mets Matt Harvey 3.84
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -131 4.15



Projected Game Total 7.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.98
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.66% 101


Away-- Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm -176 4.14
Home-- Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 3.16



Projected Game Total 7.3

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.32% 111


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez 3.86
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill -168 4.72



Projected Game Total 8.58

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.67% -107


Away-- Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa 2.93
Home-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -188 4.08



Projected Game Total 7.01

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.26
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.32% 116


Away-- New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda -117 4.03
Home-- Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 3.93



Projected Game Total 7.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.56% 102


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen 4.38
Home-- Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz -120 4.53



Projected Game Total 8.9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.58
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.77% -112


Away-- Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia 4.17
Home-- Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana -154 4.82



Projected Game Total 9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.09% -113


Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson 4.34
Home-- Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando -148 4.91



Projected Game Total 9.25

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.95% -117


Away-- Houston Astros Philip Humber 3.32
Home-- Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders -162 4.1



Projected Game Total 7.42

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.98
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.73% 110
 
4.9

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Beckett -144 3.84
Home-- San Diego Padres Clayton Richard 3.33



Projected Game Total 7.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.54
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.87% 113


Away-- New York Mets Dillon Gee 3.02
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee -167 3.86



Projected Game Total 6.88

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.91% 118


Away-- Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen -164 4.05
Home-- Miami Marlins Wade Leblanc 3.25



Projected Game Total 7.3

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.32% 111


Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta -111 4.27
Home-- Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 4.26



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.51% -106


Away-- Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 3.75
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn -141 4.21



Projected Game Total 7.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.94
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.59% 102


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates James McDonald 4.12
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon McCarthy -164 4.92



Projected Game Total 9.05

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.26% -114


Away-- Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio 3.4
Home-- San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum -153 4.04



Projected Game Total 7.44

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.79% 109


Away-- New York Yankees Andy Pettitte -121 4.08
Home-- Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco 3.92



Projected Game Total 8.01

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.72% 101


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow 4.16
Home-- Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez -140 4.6



Projected Game Total 8.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.29% -110


Away-- Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 3.57
Home-- Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie -167 4.41



Projected Game Total 7.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.97
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.65% 101


Away-- Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 4.05
Home-- Los Angeles Angels C.J. Wilson -144 4.55



Projected Game Total 8.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.75% -107


Away-- Houston Astros Erik Bedard 3.76
Home-- Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer -162 4.53



Projected Game Total 8.29

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.51
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.70% -103


Away-- Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy 3.1
Home-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez -148 3.66



Projected Game Total 6.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.47% 120
 
4.10

Projected Line
Projected Score

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey 3.91
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook -120 4.06



Projected Game Total 7.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.94
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.59% 102


Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chad Billingsley -136 3.57
Home-- San Diego Padres Eric Stults 3.18



Projected Game Total 6.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.44% 120


Away-- Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis 3.47
Home-- San Francisco Giants Barry Zito -143 3.96



Projected Game Total 7.44

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.79% 109


Away-- New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 3.89
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick -133 4.23



Projected Game Total 8.11

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.08% -100


Away-- Atlanta Braves Mike Minor -169 3.93
Home-- Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia 3.06



Projected Game Total 6.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.23
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.27% 116


Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse -125 3.9
Home-- Chicago Cubs Scott Feldman 3.68



Projected Game Total 7.59

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.27
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.29% 107


Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez 4.09
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley -169 4.96



Projected Game Total 9.05

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.26% -114


Away-- New York Yankees Ivan Nova 4.24
Home-- Cleveland Indians Undecided -112 4.27



Projected Game Total 8.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.43% -106


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 4.59
Home-- Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello -120 4.74



Projected Game Total 9.33

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.22% -118


Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore 4.46
Home-- Texas Rangers Derek Holland -127 4.71



Projected Game Total 9.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.68% -116


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta 4.37
Home-- Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster -129 4.65



Projected Game Total 9.02

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.79
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.18% -114


Away-- Minnesota Twins Liam Hendriks 4.17
Home-- Kansas City Royals Wade Davis -155 4.84



Projected Game Total 9.01

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.15% -113


Away-- Oakland Athletics Tom Milone 4.15
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Joe Blanton -130 4.45



Projected Game Total 8.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.75% -107


Away-- Houston Astros Brad Peacock 3.56
Home-- Seattle Mariners Blake Beavan -160 4.3



Projected Game Total 7.86

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.21% 103


Away-- Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd 3.23
Home-- Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann -161 3.98



Projected Game Total 7.21

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.02% 113
 
Schrute said:
good looking system

GL on the plays
Click to expand...

Thanks. Good luck this season.

4.11

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Zack Greinke -158 3.73
Home-- San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 3.02



Projected Game Total 6.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.81
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.44% 120


Away-- New York Yankees Phil Hughes 4.23
Home-- Cleveland Indians Zach Mcallister -113 4.28



Projected Game Total 8.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.43% -106


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson 3.9
Home-- Detroit Tigers Doug Fister -143 4.39



Projected Game Total 8.29

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.51
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.69% -103


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 4.42
Home-- Boston Red Sox Alfredo Aceves -123 4.61



Projected Game Total 9.02

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.79
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.18% -114


Away-- Oakland Athletics A. J. Griffin 3.61
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Jason Vargas -135 3.98



Projected Game Total 7.59

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.29
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.32% 107


Away-- Texas Rangers Justin Grimm 3.1
Home-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -155 3.77



Projected Game Total 6.87

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.86% 118


Away-- Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 3.61
Home-- Washington Nationals Dan Haren -140 4.05



Projected Game Total 7.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.41
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.56% 106
 
quick tracking update for the projections. Since Sunday 4.7 (I gave the numbers a week to settle in) Here's the W/L record versus the pinnacle closing line through Wednesday's games.

sides (29-24 +4.17)
totals (27-20 +5)

The won/loss record is accurate the units may be a few cents off as I have my tracking sheet semi-automated based on 10 cent moneylines and -110 for totals. I just don't know if anyone is using these in their daily handicapping or if I'm wasting my time posting these as it is some work. Or if someone has any opinions on the projections.

Just thought I'd share my tracking that I've started. I'm going to do it for the full season I just wanted to wait a week to adjust the teams and pitchers.
 
B.A.R. said:
Never a problem posting stuff whatsoever. Thanks for the work.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

4.12

Away-- Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran 3.71
Home-- Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler -127 3.97



Projected Game Total 7.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.44
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.61% 106


Away-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -154 4.11
Home-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 3.46



Projected Game Total 7.57

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.25
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.24% 107


Away-- Colorado Rockies Jon Garland 3.58
Home-- San Diego Padres Tyson Ross -112 3.61



Projected Game Total 7.18

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.57
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.92% 113


Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake -118 3.52
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates A.J. Burnett 3.4



Projected Game Total 6.92

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.11
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.03% 117


Away-- Philadelphia Phillies John Lannan -125 3.89
Home-- Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 3.66



Projected Game Total 7.55

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.21
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.17% 108


Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse 3.7
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller -149 4.28



Projected Game Total 7.98

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.96
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.62% 102


Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw -131 4.13
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Pat Corbin 3.82



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.9
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.50% 102


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Miguel Gonzalez 4.07
Home-- New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia -112 4.1



Projected Game Total 8.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.3
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.29% -101


Away-- Chicago White Sox Jose Quintana 3.99
Home-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson -111 4



Projected Game Total 7.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.98
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.66% 101


Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb -113 4.49
Home-- Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront 4.45



Projected Game Total 8.95

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.65
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.91% -112


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ 4.25
Home-- Kansas City Royals Luis Mendoza -112 4.28



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.50% -106


Away-- Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer -124 3.71
Home-- Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon 3.5



Projected Game Total 7.2

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.61
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47% 113


Away-- Houston Astros Bud Norris 3.72
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Tommy Hanson -190 4.9



Projected Game Total 8.62

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.08
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.79% -107


Away-- Texas Rangers Yu Darvish -136 3.69
Home-- Seattle Mariners Hisahi Iwakuma 3.31



Projected Game Total 7

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.26
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.31% 116


Away-- New York Mets Jonathon Niese -113 3.83
Home-- Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 3.78



Projected Game Total 7.61

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.32
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.38% 107
 
Schrute said:
GL today ebemiss
Click to expand...

Thanks schrute. Same to you

4.13

Away-- Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson 3.27
Home-- Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg -137 3.67



Projected Game Total 6.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.14
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.10% 117


Away-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -136 3.78
Home-- Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 3.39



Projected Game Total 7.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.55
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.88% 113


Away-- Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin -112 3.61
Home-- San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez 3.58



Projected Game Total 7.18

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.57
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.92% 113


Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo 3.45
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright -149 4.03



Projected Game Total 7.48

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.09
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.93% 109


Away-- Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto -143 3.58
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke 3.09



Projected Game Total 6.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.66
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.15% 121


Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -141 3.78
Home-- Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez 3.32



Projected Game Total 7.1

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.64% 114


Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu 4.38
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy -140 4.83



Projected Game Total 9.21

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.12
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.81% -117


Away-- Chicago White Sox Chris Sale -139 3.7
Home-- Cleveland Indians Zach Mcallister 3.27



Projected Game Total 6.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.20% 116


Away-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 4.2
Home-- New York Yankees Phil Hughes -115 4.28



Projected Game Total 8.48

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.85
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.34% -106


Away-- Tampa Bay Rays David Price -111 3.95
Home-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester 3.93



Projected Game Total 7.88

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.8
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.30% 103


Away-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -121 3.15
Home-- Oakland Athletics Brett Anderson 2.99



Projected Game Total 6.15

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 22.76
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 43.40% 130


Away-- Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey 3.9
Home-- Kansas City Royals James Shields -125 4.12



Projected Game Total 8.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.79% 101


Away-- Houston Astros Lucas Harrell 3.67
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Garrett Richards -182 4.74



Projected Game Total 8.41

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.72
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.10% -104


Away-- Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando -145 3.74
Home-- Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders 3.22



Projected Game Total 6.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.17
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.15% 117


Away-- New York Mets Matt Harvey -113 3.83
Home-- Minnesota Twins Scott Diamond 3.78



Projected Game Total 7.61

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.32
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.38% 107
 
just had a chance to update my projection tracking from yesterday to see how they are doing versus the pinnacle closing line.

Before Saturday's games started (tracking began 4.7.2013)

sides 41-33 (+8.58)
totals 35-32 (-0.2)
 
4-14

Away-- Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm 3.31
Home-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez -132 3.63



Projected Game Total 6.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.14
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.10% 117

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay -131 3.91
Home-- Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 3.6



Projected Game Total 7.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.13
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.02% 108

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos -143 3.58
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Phil Irwin 3.09



Projected Game Total 6.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.66
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.15% 121

Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Marco Estrada 3.95
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia -149 4.53



Projected Game Total 8.48

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.83
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.32% -105

Away-- San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum -134 4.24
Home-- Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 3.89



Projected Game Total 8.13

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.22
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.13% -101

Away-- Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa 3.52
Home-- San Diego Padres Clayton Richard -120 3.67



Projected Game Total 7.18

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.57
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.92% 113

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Beckett 4.52
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill -122 4.69



Projected Game Total 9.21

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.12
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.81% -117

Away-- Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen 4.09
Home-- New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda -130 4.39



Projected Game Total 8.48

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.85
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.34% -106

Away-- Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy -127 4.42
Home-- Cleveland Indians Brett Myers 4.17



Projected Game Total 8.58

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.68% -107

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb 4.09
Home-- Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz -126 4.33



Projected Game Total 8.41

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.73
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.11% -105

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow -112 4.28
Home-- Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana 4.25



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.93
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.50% -106

Away-- Houston Astros Philip Humber 3.53
Home-- Los Angeles Angels C.J. Wilson -208 4.99



Projected Game Total 8.52

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.91
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.47% -106

Away-- Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez -113 3.85
Home-- Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 3.81



Projected Game Total 7.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.4
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.54% 106

Away-- Texas Rangers Nicholas Tepesch -127 4.04
Home-- Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer 3.79



Projected Game Total 7.82

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.69
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.10% 104

Away-- New York Mets Dillon Gee 4.2
Home-- Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia -113 4.25



Projected Game Total 8.45

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.79
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.24% -105
 
Bullpen rankings through 4.13 games. I use the same formula/stats that I use for the starting pitchers. Still early in the season but here's the current list. I'll post 2012 final regular season below that. Higher number = better bullpen

2013

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Orioles - 46.75 - 34
2 - Giants - 45.34 - 33.33
3 - Royals - 45.15 - 28.33
4 - Braves - 44.81 - 33.33
5 - Diamondbacks - 44.67 - 42.33
6 - Athletics - 44.54 - 38.33
7 - Rangers - 43.95 - 32.67
8 - White Sox - 43.89 - 34.67
9 - Mets - 42.97 - 34.67
10 - Pirates - 42.63 - 37.67
11 - Reds - 41.5 - 36
12 - Dodgers - 40.67 - 26.67
13 - Red Sox - 40.46 - 31.67
14 - Twins - 40.4 - 42.33
15 - Angels - 39.97 - 37.67
16 - Blue Jays - 38.5 - 45
17 - Phillies - 37.19 - 32
18 - Mariners - 37.15 - 39.33
19 - Cubs - 36.97 - 29.33
20 - Padres - 36.74 - 42
21 - Cardinals - 36.39 - 31
22 - Rays - 36.2 - 28
23 - Indians - 36.15 - 30.67
24 - Rockies - 35.67 - 37.33
25 - Brewers - 35.53 - 31.67
26 - Tigers - 34.29 - 35
27 - Nationals - 34.1 - 35.67
28 - Yankees - 34.09 - 34.67
29 - Marlins - 34.06 - 32.67
30 - Astros - 32.6 - 38.33

2012

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Rays - 43.61 - 466
2 - Braves - 42.34 - 486.33
3 - Reds - 42.32 - 434.33
4 - Rangers - 41.6 - 457.33
5 - Athletics - 41.58 - 512
6 - Padres - 41.19 - 505.33
7 - Orioles - 41.03 - 545.33
8 - Diamondbacks - 40.93 - 466.67
9 - Yankees - 40.71 - 444
10 - Nationals - 40.7 - 515.33
11 - Mariners - 40.56 - 454
12 - Dodgers - 40.41 - 462
13 - Pirates - 40.37 - 498.67
14 - Phillies - 40.23 - 418.33
15 - Royals - 39.83 - 561.33
16 - Cardinals - 39.83 - 473.33
17 - White Sox - 39.52 - 465.67
18 - Red Sox - 39.51 - 514.67
19 - Indians - 39.43 - 528.33
20 - Tigers - 39.43 - 458.67
21 - Twins - 39.08 - 558.67
22 - Giants - 39.01 - 452.67
23 - Angels - 38.91 - 449
24 - Blue Jays - 38.46 - 527.67
25 - Marlins - 37.39 - 458.33
26 - Astros - 37.17 - 504.67
27 - Rockies - 36.94 - 657
28 - Mets - 36.91 - 458.67
29 - Brewers - 36.87 - 512.33
30 - Cubs - 35.11 - 491
 
4.15

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee -112 3.61
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 3.58



Projected Game Total 7.19

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.57
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.93% 113

Away-- San Diego Padres Eric Stults 3.08
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chad Billingsley -174 4.03



Projected Game Total 7.12

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.46
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.70% 114

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn -130 3.84
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates James McDonald 3.54



Projected Game Total 7.39

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.92
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.61% 110

Away-- Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann -166 3.96
Home-- Miami Marlins Wade Leblanc 3.13



Projected Game Total 7.1

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.64% 114

Away-- New York Mets Dillon Gee 5.04
Home-- Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio -132 5.37



Projected Game Total 10.41

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.22
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 57.91% -138

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson 4.4
Home-- Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster -120 4.55



Projected Game Total 8.95

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.65
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.91% -112

Away-- Los Angeles Angels Joe Blanton -138 4.46
Home-- Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia 4.04



Projected Game Total 8.5

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.88
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.40% -106

Away-- Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd 4.05
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle -149 4.63



Projected Game Total 8.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.01% -108

Away-- Houston Astros Erik Bedard 3.22
Home-- Oakland Athletics Tom Milone -205 4.63



Projected Game Total 7.84

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.73
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.17% 103
 
4.16

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick 3.78
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey -160 4.52



Projected Game Total 8.3

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.52
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.72% -103

Away-- San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 2.93
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chris Capuano -194 4.17



Projected Game Total 7.11

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.43
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.66% 114

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook -135 4.06
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez 3.69



Projected Game Total 7.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.57
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.87% 105

Away-- Washington Nationals Dan Haren -151 4.16
Home-- Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia 3.55



Projected Game Total 7.71

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.5
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.72% 105

Away-- San Francisco Giants Barry Zito -126 4.56
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta 4.32



Projected Game Total 8.88

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.54
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.69% -111

Away-- New York Mets Dillon Gee 4.99
Home-- Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio -132 5.32



Projected Game Total 10.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 57.56% -136

Away-- Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront -121 4.2
Home-- Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 4.03



Projected Game Total 8.23

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.4
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.47% -102

Away-- Los Angeles Angels Jason Vargas -152 4.39
Home-- Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 3.77



Projected Game Total 8.16

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.28
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.24% -101

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez 4.36
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta -129 4.64



Projected Game Total 9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.76
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53.11% -113

Away-- Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 4.03
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson -158 4.74



Projected Game Total 8.77

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.35
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.33% -110

Away-- Houston Astros Brad Peacock 3.08
Home-- Oakland Athletics A. J. Griffin -215 4.63



Projected Game Total 7.71

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.5
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.72% 105

Away-- Detroit Tigers Doug Fister -134 3.73
Home-- Seattle Mariners Aaron Harang 3.37



Projected Game Total 7.1

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.43
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.64% 114

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon McCarthy 4.28
Home-- New York Yankees Ivan Nova -112 4.31



Projected Game Total 8.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.04
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.72% -107

Away-- Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie 3.4
Home-- Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen -147 3.95



Projected Game Total 7.34

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.85
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.47% 111

Away-- Texas Rangers Derek Holland -166 4.53
Home-- Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 3.7



Projected Game Total 8.23

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.41
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.49% -102

Away-- New York Mets Aaron Laffey 4.93
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis -140 5.38



Projected Game Total 10.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.04
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 57.55% -136
 
4.17

Away-- Kansas City Royals Wade Davis 3.26
Home-- Atlanta Braves Mike Minor -187 4.4



Projected Game Total 7.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.41
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.56% 106

Away-- Houston Astros Bud Norris 3.31
Home-- Oakland Athletics Bartolo Colon -187 4.45



Projected Game Total 7.76

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.59
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.90% 105

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore -121 4.18
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 4.02



Projected Game Total 8.2

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.35
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.38% -102

Away-- Boston Red Sox Alfredo Aceves 3.69
Home-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson -125 3.91



Projected Game Total 7.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.3
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.34% 107

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley 3.7
Home-- New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia -136 4.08



Projected Game Total 7.78

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.96% 104

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller -133 3.74
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates A.J. Burnett 3.4



Projected Game Total 7.15

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.51
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.81% 114

Away-- Chicago White Sox Jose Quintana 3.9
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ -133 4.24



Projected Game Total 8.14

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.24
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.17% -101

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies John Lannan 4.03
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake -119 4.16



Projected Game Total 8.18

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.32
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.32% -101

Away-- Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler -146 4.23
Home-- Miami Marlins Ricky Nolasco 3.7



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.48% 102

Away-- Texas Rangers Justin Grimm -128 4.25
Home-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 3.99



Projected Game Total 8.24

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.51% -102

Away-- San Francisco Giants Ryan Vogelsong 3.94
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse -128 4.21



Projected Game Total 8.14

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.25
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.19% -101

Away-- Los Angeles Angels Tommy Hanson -128 4.25
Home-- Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 3.99



Projected Game Total 8.24

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.51% -102

Away-- New York Mets Jeremy Hefner 5.29
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jon Garland -133 5.63



Projected Game Total 10.92

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 31.11
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 59.62% -148

Away-- Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer 3.32
Home-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -110 3.32



Projected Game Total 6.64

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.08% 122

Away-- San Diego Padres Tyson Ross 2.13
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw -270 4.5



Projected Game Total 6.63

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.6
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.03% 122
 
4.18

Away-- Texas Rangers Alexi Ogando -154 4.17
Home-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Villanueva 3.52



Projected Game Total 7.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.45
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.63% 106

Away-- New York Mets Jonathon Niese 5.15
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jon Garland -112 5.18



Projected Game Total 10.32

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 30.07
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 57.60% -136

Away-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -143 3.55
Home-- Seattle Mariners Hisahi Iwakuma 3.06



Projected Game Total 6.61

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.56
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 44.96% 122

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays David Price -118 4.11
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Miguel Gonzalez 3.99



Projected Game Total 8.1

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.17
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.03% -100

Away-- Boston Red Sox Jon Lester -139 4.01
Home-- Cleveland Indians Zach Mcallister 3.58



Projected Game Total 7.58

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.27
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.28% 107

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Pat Corbin 3.93
Home-- New York Yankees Phil Hughes -115 4.01



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.49% 102

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright -112 3.78
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels 3.75



Projected Game Total 7.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.17
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.09% 108

Away-- Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran -119 3.99
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke 3.85



Projected Game Total 7.84

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.73
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.17% 103

Away-- Chicago White Sox Chris Sale 3.84
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey -123 4.03



Projected Game Total 7.87

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.78
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.27% 103

Away-- Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez 3.53
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Tony Cingrani -169 4.41



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.89
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.49% 102

Away-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -117 4.01
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo 3.9



Projected Game Total 7.91

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.84
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.39% 102
 
5.22 projections

Away-- Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 3.62
Home-- Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm -179 4.64



Projected Game Total 8.25

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.44
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.56% -102

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu -126 4.38
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta 4.15



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.92
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.49% -106

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 3.12
Home-- New York Mets Matt Harvey -119 3.26



Projected Game Total 6.38

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.16
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 44.19% 126

Away-- Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 4.78
Home-- Texas Rangers Ross Wolf -122 4.96



Projected Game Total 9.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.06
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 55.64% -125

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill 4.67
Home-- Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa -122 4.85



Projected Game Total 9.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.67
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.89% -122

Away-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez 3.21
Home-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner -136 3.6



Projected Game Total 6.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.92
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.66% 119

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson -116 4.8
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 4.71



Projected Game Total 9.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.63
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.82% -121

Away-- New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda -125 4.39
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 4.17



Projected Game Total 8.55

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.97
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.58% -107

Away-- Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer 3.9
Home-- Los Angeles Angels C.J. Wilson -169 4.78



Projected Game Total 8.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.02% -108

Away-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -133 4.18
Home-- Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 3.84



Projected Game Total 8.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.80% 101

Away-- Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 3.51
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano -130 3.8



Projected Game Total 7.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.8
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.37% 111

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee -169 3.92
Home-- Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 3.04



Projected Game Total 6.96

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.17% 117

Away-- Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz -141 4.4
Home-- Chicago White Sox Hector Santiago 3.94



Projected Game Total 8.35

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.61
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.88% -104

Away-- Kansas City Royals James Shields -209 4.89
Home-- Houston Astros Jordan Lyles 3.42



Projected Game Total 8.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.54
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.74% -103

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Tyler Lyons -117 3.86
Home-- San Diego Padres Burch Smith 3.76



Projected Game Total 7.61

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.33
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.39% 107
 
My bullpen rankings through 5.21 games. Higher number = better bullpen.

Rank - Team - Rating - IP
- - -
1 - Royals - 42.67 - 106.67
2 - Pirates - 42.36 - 160
3 - Yankees - 42.3 - 136
4 - Braves - 42.21 - 124.33
5 - Athletics - 42.2 - 150.67
6 - Diamondbacks - 42 - 131
7 - Brewers - 41.86 - 141.33
8 - Rockies - 41.77 - 160.67
9 - Reds - 41.7 - 130.33
10 - Indians - 41.3 - 137.33
11 - Padres - 41.08 - 152
12 - Twins - 40.93 - 156.33
13 - Giants - 40.86 - 140
14 - Mariners - 40.72 - 136
15 - Orioles - 40.39 - 148.33
16 - Rangers - 40.24 - 132.33
17 - Tigers - 39.96 - 132.33
18 - Red Sox - 39.51 - 133
19 - Blue Jays - 38.61 - 159.33
20 - Cardinals - 37.91 - 114.67
21 - Marlins - 37.88 - 150.67
22 - Angels - 37.81 - 150
23 - Nationals - 37.78 - 123.33
24 - Rays - 37.69 - 122
25 - White Sox - 37.31 - 125.33
26 - Mets - 37.3 - 145.67
27 - Cubs - 37.29 - 117
28 - Dodgers - 37.08 - 131
29 - Phillies - 36.74 - 118.67
30 - Astros - 34.97 - 175.33
 
6.22 MLB projections. Will try to post these more often, time permitting.

Away– Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin -112 4.01
Home– Washington Nationals Dan Haren 3.98
Projected Game Total 7.98
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.37
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.64% 101

Away– Tampa Bay Rays Alex Colome 3.6
Home– New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia -168 4.46
Projected Game Total 8.07
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.52
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.93% 100

Away– Baltimore Orioles Miguel Gonzalez -118 4.86
Home– Toronto Blue Jays Chen Ming Wang 4.74
Projected Game Total 9.6
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.27
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 55.13% -123
MLB Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals

Away– Chicago White Sox Jose Quintana 3.96
Home– Kansas City Royals Wade Davis -139 4.38
Projected Game Total 8.34
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.86% -103

Away– Houston Astros Bud Norris 3.77
Home– Chicago Cubs Travis Wood -164 4.57
Projected Game Total 8.34
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.86% -104

Away– New York Mets Dillon Gee 4.16
Home– Philadelphia Phillies Jonathan Pettibone -120 4.31
Projected Game Total 8.47
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.24
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.28% -105

Away– Miami Marlins Jacob Turner 3.5
Home– San Francisco Giants Barry Zito -125 3.73
Projected Game Total 7.23
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.09% 112

Away– Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson -131 4.47
Home– Milwaukee Brewers Donovan Hand 4.16
Projected Game Total 8.62
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.52
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.82% -108

Away– Minnesota Twins P.J. Walters 3.87
Home– Cleveland Indians Corey Kluber -137 4.27
Projected Game Total 8.14
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.66
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.18% -101
MLB Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers

Away– Boston Red Sox Allen Webster 3.66
Home– Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer -187 4.8
Projected Game Total 8.46
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.22
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.25% -105

Away– Texas Rangers Martin Perez 2.97
Home– St. Louis Cardinals Shelby Miller -214 4.51
Projected Game Total 7.48
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.46
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.92% 109

Away– Los Angeles Dodgers Zack Greinke 3.57
Home– San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez -118 3.68
Projected Game Total 7.25
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.05
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.15% 112

Away– Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake 3.69
Home– Arizona Diamondbacks Pat Corbin -148 4.25
Projected Game Total 7.95
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.3
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.52% 102

Away– Pittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano 3.73
Home– Los Angeles Angels Jerome Williams -120 3.88
Projected Game Total 7.61
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.7
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.38% 107

Away– Oakland Athletics Daniel Straily -126 3.66
Home– Seattle Mariners Aaron Harang 3.42
Projected Game Total 7.09
Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.59% 115
 
I've been going over some of your numbers off and on today. Really think there are some possible long-term profitable angles these numbers offer. If you can find the time to post em I will continue to research the numbers on my end and of course will post my findings...thanks again
 
Great. Will do. I'll take the help with tracking. Probably the thing I need the most help with. Finding out what's working and what's not
 
looks like you normally post the info at a decent hour...I'm usually up and at em pretty early myself...I have a few idea's that I will just post and track in your thread if that's ok with you???...I am going to look into the H+R+E totals and 1st inn scoring initially and will work through the other info
 
I update every morning by 7 est. Will post then. Post anything you'd like in the thread
 
Sunday's Projections

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Chris Archer 4.19
Home-- New York Yankees Ivan Nova -119 4.32



Projected Game Total 8.51

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.32
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.45% -106

Away-- New York Mets Matt Harvey -138 4.01
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies John Lannan 3.6



Projected Game Total 7.61

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.69
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.36% 107

Away-- Texas Rangers Nicholas Tepesch 3.08
Home-- St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright -212 4.59



Projected Game Total 7.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.79
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.55% 106

Away-- Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 4.31
Home-- Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco -129 4.59



Projected Game Total 8.89

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.01
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.74% -112

Away-- Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront 3.66
Home-- Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander -178 4.67



Projected Game Total 8.33

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.84% -103

Away-- Baltimore Orioles Freddy Garcia 4.09
Home-- Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson -163 4.88



Projected Game Total 8.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.14
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 53% -113

Away-- Colorado Rockies Jorge De La Rosa 3.54
Home-- Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler -125 3.77



Projected Game Total 7.31

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.16
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.36% 111

Away-- Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 3
Home-- Kansas City Royals James Shields -217 4.59



Projected Game Total 7.59

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.66
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.31% 107

Away-- Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm -136 4.59
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Alfredo Figaro 4.2



Projected Game Total 8.79

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.82
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.37% -110

Away-- Houston Astros Jordan Lyles 3.5
Home-- Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija -184 4.6



Projected Game Total 8.1

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.59
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.06% -100

Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Charlie Morton 4.11
Home-- Los Angeles Angels Joe Blanton -130 4.41



Projected Game Total 8.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.35
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.49% -106

Away-- Miami Marlins Nathan Eovaldi 2.68
Home-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -208 4.13



Projected Game Total 6.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.26
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.65% 119

Away-- Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker -144 3.92
Home-- Seattle Mariners Jeremy Bonderman 3.41



Projected Game Total 7.33

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.42% 111

Away-- Los Angeles Dodgers Chris Capuano 3.27
Home-- San Diego Padres Andrew Cashner -152 3.9



Projected Game Total 7.17

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.91
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.88% 113

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos -118 4.18
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Randall Delgado 4.06



Projected Game Total 8.23

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.82
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.49% -102
 
Looking at your totals your most dramatic difference is in the the bronx today. Your number is 8.51 and the total is set at 9.5 -123. So I will start out with one total a day that has the most dramatic difference assuming there is a total that is off by at least a 1/2 run...As far as sides go I don't see anything to track today as all teams you have winning are also the fav's. I won't take the time to try and track favorites, in the long term my experience has taught me there is no real long term way to win with extensive juice attached. You can pick and choose spots with fav's but I have yet to see anyone kill it day in and day out on fav's year after year.

Going to wait till around 10am est to post the 1st inn scoring and H+R+E plays. Basically looking for % higher than 52.5% to play the "yes" they will score and below 47% to play the "no" they won't score...In the H+R+E catagory I will look for totals that are off by 1 or more and play those accordingly

If you have any other suggestions, maybe something that has worked for you using these numbers let me know and I will track it the best I can...I think there is a good chance we can find something that will work here and if nothing else we might learn something...thanks again ebemiss for posting the info.
 
I'm actually headed to Yankee game now. Old timers day. Will post some things I look for tomorrow. Thanks again for help.
 
6/23

Tampa Bay Rays H+R+E/New York Yankees H+R+E Under 28½ -115
Houston Astros H+R+E/Chicago Cubs H+R+E Under 28½ -115*
New York Mets H+R+E/Philadelphia Phillies H+R+E Over 24½ -115
Cincinnati Reds H+R+E/Arizona Diamondbacks H+R+E Under 28 -120
Minnesota Twins H+R+E/Cleveland Indians H+R+E Under 29½ -115

LOS/SDG no score 1st inn -125
BAL/TOR score 1st inn yes -115
MIA/SFO no score 1st inn -130
MIN/CLE score 1st inn yes -130

waiting for a line on cle game to come out maybe a play on that still...all plays will be 1 unit for tracking purposes.
 
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6/23...Results

Tampa Bay Rays H+R+E/New York Yankees H+R+E Under 28½ -115
Houston Astros H+R+E/Chicago Cubs H+R+E Under 28½ -115
New York Mets H+R+E/Philadelphia Phillies H+R+E Over 24½ -115
Cincinnati Reds H+R+E/Arizona Diamondbacks H+R+E Under 28 -120
Minnesota Twins H+R+E/Cleveland Indians H+R+E Under 29½ -115

LOS/SDG no score 1st inn -125
BAL/TOR score 1st inn yes -115
MIA/SFO no score 1st inn -130
MIN/CLE score 1st inn yes -130

Game Totals...1-0...+1.0 units

H+R+E Totals...4-1...+2.85 units
Overs...1-0
Under...2-1

1st Inn Scoring...3-1...+1.70 units
Yes...2-0
No...1-1

Hope this makes sense. If I need to clarify anything let me know. Again thanks for posting.
 
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Thanks Bench. Makes sense.

Here's what I look for when I'm coming up with a side play. I broke it down into 6 categories 0-5. 5 being the best scenario for a play.

5- Play on a Home underdog when my line is showing the home team should be favorite. (Like to have better pitcher as well).

4- Play on a Home favorite when my line is showing the home team should be favorite more than the current line. (Like to have better pitcher as well).

3- Play on a Road underdog when my line is showing the road team should be favorite. (Like to have better pitcher as well).

2- Play on a Road favorite when my line is showing the road team should be favorite more than the current line. (Like to have better pitcher as well).

1- Play on a Home underdog when my line is showing that they should be underdog but not that much of an underdog. (Like to have better pitcher as well).

0- Play on a Road underdog when my line is showing that they should be underdog but not that much of an underdog. (Like to have better pitcher as well).

I have a rating system for pitchers. I talk about having the "better pitcher" a lot. I've done well sticking to that formula combined with line value. However.....I have to do a better job with being flexible/less stubborn on my drop dead price point if I really like a play. Or don't be afraid to go against the numbers based on a current/hot cold streak, injuries, etc...

Ultimately it's who's going to win or loss in baseball as I rarely play run lines, I guess if I like a play I shouldn't let 10-15 cents stop me from playing it.

I fully understand that I want the best price, I get it. I just have to find a percentage over/under my projection that I'm comfortable playing teams at.

I can get more into totals and props tomorrow. (mainly they are exactly what bench is trying to do with the numbers. Find value based on comparing my line the current line and finding a pct or difference in each that a play fits in that profile)

It's been a long day out in the hot sun.
 
Monday's projections.

Also be careful with Chicago Cub total projections. I have a park factor I use but I don't tweak it everyday for the volatile weather conditions. When totals are posted at 11 or 12 and I have 8.5 as a projection the wind must be a factor. Same goes for a lower posted total. Just be careful. Probably not the best idea to follow the numbers on those games when the numbers are way off.

Away-- Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 4.17
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Zach Britton -141 4.63



Projected Game Total 8.81

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.85
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.44% -110

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Esmil Rogers 3.85
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson -127 4.1



Projected Game Total 7.94

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.3
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.50% 102

Away-- San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner 3.33
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun Jin Ryu -115 3.41



Projected Game Total 6.74

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.13
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.40% 120

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee 3.23
Home-- San Diego Padres Eric Stults -112 3.26



Projected Game Total 6.48

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 23.67
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 44.54% 124
 
Sf/Lad no score in 1st inn -145
Phi/Sd no score in 1st inn -145
Tor/Tb H+R+E un 27.5 -115
 
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BenchCoach2 said:
Sf/Lad no score in 1st inn -145
Phi/Sd no score in 1st inn -145
Tor/Tb H+R+E un 27.5 -115
Click to expand...

I really like your angle Bench and i look forward to seeing if this stats will be profitable over the long haul. I am still trying to understand how you come up with the over/under and yes/no ........ i did read your earlier post and your "key" numbers are 52.5% and 47% right? and has to be off by "at least" 1 or more runs? I am not understanding the HRE though. For example, you have Toronto Under today but the line is 27.5 and EB has 27.85? Shouldn't that be a lay off play or Over opposed to an Under? Thank you brother. Just trying to understand the numbers in more detail.

TO EB:
Thank you for all that you do for us brother. I truly appreciate all that you do for us new and up comers in the Handicapping world. Thank you again brother and best of luck on the season. I will be here looking everyday for your info. Thank you again!!
 
Madbro...I am using the statistics that ebemiss posts in the morning and I am simply just tracking to see how this does over an extended period of time...My one concern is that sometimes you get caught playing too much juice (tonight is a good example). In the long run it could be hard to turn significant profit and/or huge swings...I wouldn't suggest to anyone wagering too much on these posted plays, they are untested but that said I do think there is something here. Sometimes it takes a few tweaks and some tough losses to make something like this work...I myself am only playing $50 a game on these, I still like to put money on the line to some extent to keep my choices realistic...As far as the under in TB tonight on H+R+E the number embemiss posted was 26.3. I think you may have been looking at the game above TB. Everything else you wrote down sounds correct. Many times in wagering the simplest things work...gl on your wagers
 
Last edited:
BenchCoach2 said:
Madbro...I am using the statistics that embemiss posts in the morning and I am simply just tracking to see how this does over an extended period of time...My one concern is that sometimes you get caught playing too much juice (tonight is a good example). In the long run it could be hard to turn significant profit and/or huge swings...I wouldn't suggest to anyone wagering too much on these posted plays, they are untested but that said I do think there is something here. Sometimes it takes a few tweaks and some tough losses to make something like this work...I myself am only playing $50 a game on these, I still like to put money on the line to some extent to keep my choices realistic...As far as the under in TB tonight on H+R+E the number embemiss posted was 26.3. I think you may have been looking at the game above TB. Everything else you wrote down sounds correct. Many times in wagering the simplest things work...gl on your wagers
Click to expand...


shit ! bro i apologize you are completely right. i was looking at the right numbers but for the wrong game. wow ! Vegas must of kicked my ass this weekend lol.

I definitely agree with you in regards to trying out a system before "buying" (if you will) but also with that said i agree with placing some kind of wager on it to keep it realistic as you mentioned. I hope the information posted by EB tends to help fellow new and mature cappers along the way! Last night was a great night for you. I will continue to look to you as well as EB for information on a daily basis. Thanks again brother and best of luck with your wagers.!
 
Madbro. thanks

Tuesday's projections

Away-- Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson 4.29
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman -127 4.54



Projected Game Total 8.83

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.9
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 52.54% -111

Away-- Los Angeles Angels C.J. Wilson 4.33
Home-- Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello -110 4.33



Projected Game Total 8.67

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.6
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.96% -108

Away-- Texas Rangers Yu Darvish -125 3.63
Home-- New York Yankees Hiroki Kuroda 3.4



Projected Game Total 7.03

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.65
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.40% 116

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Trevor Cahill 3.21
Home-- Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez -141 3.67



Projected Game Total 6.87

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.37
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.87% 118

Away-- Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio 4.6
Home-- Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster -150 5.19



Projected Game Total 9.79

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.62
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 55.79% -126

Away-- Minnesota Twins Kevin Correia 3.54
Home-- Miami Marlins Jose Fernandez -134 3.89



Projected Game Total 7.43

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.38
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.77% 109

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle 3.77
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore -122 3.94



Projected Game Total 7.71

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.88
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.71% 105

Away-- New York Mets Zack Wheeler 3.2
Home-- Chicago White Sox Chris Sale -187 4.34



Projected Game Total 7.53

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.56
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.11% 108

Away-- Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen -111 3.75
Home-- Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana 3.74



Projected Game Total 7.49

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.47
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.95% 109

Away-- Chicago Cubs Edwin Jackson 3.88
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse -163 4.66



Projected Game Total 8.54

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.37
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.54% -106

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook -145 4.56
Home-- Houston Astros Lucas Harrell 4.04



Projected Game Total 8.59

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.47
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.71% -107

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 3.86
Home-- Oakland Athletics Tom Milone -112 3.89



Projected Game Total 7.75

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.95
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.86% 105

Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Locke -131 3.73
Home-- Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders 3.42



Projected Game Total 7.15

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.87
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.82% 114

Away-- San Francisco Giants Mike Kickham 3.9
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Stephen Fife -121 4.07



Projected Game Total 7.97

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.34
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.59% 102

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick 3.51
Home-- San Diego Padres Jason Marquis -123 3.71



Projected Game Total 7.22

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.99
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 47.04% 113
 
6/24 Results

Sf/Lad no score in 1st inn -145
Phi/Sd no score in 1st inn -145
Tor/Tb H+R+E un 27.5 -115

Game Totals...1-0...+1.0 units

H+R+E Totals...5-1...+3.85 units
Overs...1-0
Under...4-1

1st Inn Scoring...4-2...+1.25 units
Yes...2-0
No...2-2

​
<!-- edit note -->
 
Last edited:
TEX/NYY no score 1st inn -135
PIT/SEA no score 1st inn -130
COL/BOS score 1st inn yes -130
ARI/WAS no score 1st inn -130

St. Louis Cardinals H+R+E/Houston Astros H+R+E Under 28½ -115
New York Mets H+R+E/Chicago White Sox H+R+E Over 24½ -115
Chicago Cubs H+R+E/Milwaukee Brewers H+R+E Over 26 -115




 
Here are all the props that fit the parameters I use for a play. I've just recently tweaked the way I'm selecting my side/total/props based on different factors and these are the props that fit tonight.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Props

2963 CLE/BAL score 1st inn yes –110
3962 Detroit Tigers H+R+E u28½ -115
2967 MIN/MIA score 1st inn yes +110
3967 Minnesota Twins H+R+E o24½ -115
2975 NYM/CWS score 1st inn yes +115
3975 New York Mets H+R+E o24½ -115
2953 CUB/MIL score 1st inn yes +100
3953 Chicago Cubs H+R+E o26 -115
3974 Houston Astros H+R+E u28½ -115
 
Wednesday's projections

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey 3.95
Home-- Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez -119 4.09



Projected Game Total 8.04

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.47
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.84% 101

Away-- Minnesota Twins Scott Diamond -123 4.02
Home-- Miami Marlins Tom Koehler 3.83



Projected Game Total 7.86

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.14
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 49.21% 103

Away-- Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey 3.7
Home-- Oakland Athletics A. J. Griffin -121 3.86



Projected Game Total 7.56

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 25.61
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 48.22% 107

Away-- Pittsburgh Pirates Jeanmar Gomez 2.86
Home-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez -175 3.82



Projected Game Total 6.68

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.02
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.20% 121

Away-- Colorado Rockies Roy Oswalt 4.44
Home-- Boston Red Sox John Lackey -162 5.21



Projected Game Total 9.65

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.38
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 55.33% -124

Away-- Cleveland Indians Scott Kazmir 4.45
Home-- Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel -144 4.96



Projected Game Total 9.41

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 28.94
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 54.50% -120

Away-- Los Angeles Angels Tommy Hanson 4.7
Home-- Detroit Tigers Jose Alvarez -128 4.97



Projected Game Total 9.66

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 29.39
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 55.36% -124

Away-- Texas Rangers Justin Grimm 4.22
Home-- New York Yankees Andy Pettitte -121 4.38



Projected Game Total 8.6

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.48
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.75% -107

Away-- Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley 3.09
Home-- Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann -159 3.81



Projected Game Total 6.9

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.42
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.96% 118

Away-- New York Mets Shaun Marcum 4.05
Home-- Chicago White Sox John Danks -133 4.39



Projected Game Total 8.44

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 27.19
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 51.19% -105

Away-- Atlanta Braves Mike Minor -134 4.31
Home-- Kansas City Royals Luis Mendoza 3.95



Projected Game Total 8.26

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.86
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.58% -102

Away-- Chicago Cubs Scott Feldman 3.96
Home-- Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo -129 4.24



Projected Game Total 8.19

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.36% -101

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn -174 4.57
Home-- Houston Astros Erik Bedard 3.62



Projected Game Total 8.19

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 26.75
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 50.35% -101

Away-- San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum 2.6
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw -217 4.18



Projected Game Total 6.78

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.2
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 45.54% 120

Away-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -128 3.63
Home-- San Diego Padres Robbie Erlin 3.36



Projected Game Total 6.99

Total Runs/Hits/Errors 24.59
Chance of Scoring 1st Inn. 46.28% 116
 
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