Super 14, Round 6
Highlanders vs Bulls
Otago in recent seasons has generally had the pattern of putting in 2-3 decent efforts and then putting in a dud, so they've done well enough ATS despite regularly getting thrashed. This season they've lost 2 very close games, then lost badly in putting in what was basically a dud, then won a close game, lost a close game, then won a game that was closer than the score suggests. Their inherent team identity/pattern therefore screams dud coming up - why not here against arguably the best side in the comp (back to it's title winning form of 2 seasons ago, after having last season off in the shadow of that 07 glory) at a venue that the Bulls have stated they're quite happy to play at to avoid going down South? The Bulls have had less travel involved here than Otago, and are no strangers to this venue having played Wellington there before. Weather has been good recently in the lower Nth Island and being a 5.30 pm start any potential freezing conditions as winter nears should be averted. So not only does the venue provide no advantage for the 'home' team, the weather doesn't look to play into anything that would favour them either.
The Bulls have the Crusaders next week, and the 'Tahs the week after, so even thou they're undefeated (5-0) they know they could easily be facing an 0-3 run should they drop this game. Their forwards monstered Wellington last week even playing with 14 men, and frankly despite the close game Otago had with Wellington themselves, that same performance repeated here for the Bulls w/15 men for 80 mins (the fact the Bulls got handed so many bullshit yellows last week should see the ref here be very reluctant to do the same) should beat Otago by 15-20 pts aligned with the factors I noted above.
The bet: To be getting +105 for the Bulls to lead at half-time & win SU to me is too tempting to pass by. Otago has totaled 40 points in 6 x 1st halves of rugby this season (that's a whopping 6.66 pt average for those math challenged), with nearly half of that amount (19) coming in their first game, highlighting the fact that intelligent use of the ball in the red zone is where this team blows goats - 6-7 pts scored by Otago here come half-time will not be enough to lead this Bulls team. Playing into this option's occurrence is the fact that (1) no favourite has led at halftime for 7 consecutive Super 14 games, and (2) no favourite has led at halftime & won SU in Australia or NZ for 10 consecutive Super 14 games, both statistical highs by my records.
Bulls/Bulls half-fulltime double at +105 (2k)
