2008 Predictions/Preview

[Yanks27Sox9]

Previews will come over the following days...but for now, my annual predictions...and various shit.

AL East
NYY = 95-67*
BOS = 93-69*
TOR = 87-75
TB = 76-86
BAL = 61-101 (under)

AL Central
DET = 94-68*
CLE = 89-73
CWS = 82-80 (over)
MIN = 74-88
KC = 73-89

AL West
LAA = 90-72
SEA = 90-72* (over)
TX = 76-86
OAK = 65-97 (under)
{SEA over LAA in a 1 game playoff for the West}

NL East
NYM = 91-71*
PHI = 90-72*
ATL = 86-76
WAS = 72-90
FLA = 64-98 (under)

NL Central
CHI = 88-74*
MIL = 85-77
HOU = 81-81 (over)
CIN = 80-82
STL = 75-87
PIT = 66-96

NL West
LAD = 89-73*
AZ = 88-74
SD = 84-78
COL = 82-80
SF = 65-97 (under)

(O/U's are where there's a decent variance from the current listings and my personal numbers. Not playing them...cuz i don't want to tie up $ for a whole season...but those are what i'd look at if i were to make any plays. Also, the above #'s are based upon the AL winning roughly 55% of the interleague games.)

And playoffs, for shits & giggles...

NYY over SEA in 4
BOS over DET in 5
NYY over BOS in 6

CHI over NYM in 5
LAD over PHI in 5
CHI over LAD in 7

NYY over CHI in 6

Other semi-useless predictions...

NYY, DET, & PHI will all score over 900 runs this year, with both AL teams easily surpasing 950...which only the Yanks did last year.

Bonds will (pull a clemens) and play he 2nd half of the season for either SEA, TX, BAL, or TB.

AL Rookie = Evan Longoria
NL Rookie = Jay Bruce
AL Cy Young = Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young = Dan Haren (not Johan)
AL MVP = Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP = Ryan Howard
AL Manager = Jim McLaren
NL Manager = Joe Torre

That's it for now...but I'll come up with more shit later. All this is just a part of the process...a part of what i do every year, preparing for the new season.

Getting close. :cheers:

 

[brewer]

82 wins for my sox?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

As for last season...i dropped roughly a couple units on (S&G) parlays over the course, and dropped a few more units during the playoffs...but in terms of what i kept track of, which was the entire 162 game schedule, this is where i ended up.
'07 = 232-202-3, +33.820 units
That's playing games between $50 and $150, with prolly an average of $75 per, and avoiding juice like the plague...quite often with RLs.

I bring that up because i'm going to try something a bit different this season. While i'm maintaining my same basic philosophies/style, i'm going to try to be somewhat more disciplined in terms of dealing with the juice. Nothing written in stone, per se, but i want to attempt to be more uniformed in what i do over the long season...which i'm obviously hoping will have a positive effect when it's all said & done.

So anyways...once i've capped the game, gone thru all the steps i typically do, and believe it's worthy of a play...these are the (penciled in) guidelines i'm going to attempt to follow with my wagers this season.

Favs
-101 to -130 = 100% ML
-131 to -150 = 50% ML + 50% -1.5 RL
-151 to -170 = 25% ML + 75% -1.5 RL or 50% -1 RL + 50% -1.5 RL
-171 & up = 100% -1.5 RL

Dogs
+101 to +140 = 100% ML
+141 to +170 = 50% ML + 50% +1.5 RL
+171 to +200 = 25% ML + 75% +1.5 RL or 50% +1 RL + 50% +1.5 RL
+201 & up = 100% +1.5 RL

Hopefully the +/- 1 RLs will be available to utilize...missed them last year...but like i said, these are merely penciled in guidelines i'm going to try to follow with my wagers.

The reason for all this is simply to be more disciplined/uniformed over the entire course of a season...to continue to avoid juice whenever/wherever possible...and to try to avoid those 'careless' bets (usually laying a fair amount of chalk) that i seem to make every so often. You know what i mean...those ones where by the 3rd inning we're asking ourselves WTF we were thinking laying -160 on those jackoffs, and that SP with the 5-something ERA.
But the flip side of this...the reaction to the action... is also a somewhat more conservative approach with the doggies. I never minded sacrificing winning percentage for profits...yet i think i can do better with both, by basically speading out the risk.

Anyways, just thought i'd share that w/ the above predictions tonight. Been toying with the idea for some time w/ bases...and decided this would be the season to finally start.
It doesn't really change how i bet baseball, or what i've been doing/building on for years...the idea is merely to do it all in a more uniformed/organized/thoughtful/diversified manner, if that makes sense. In other words, i'm trying to guide myself/force myself to keep to what i typically do...to not stray from what's been successful for me, with those occasional 'careless' wagers.

'an_horse'

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

82 wins for my sox?

helluva lineup...bad/poor rotation...fair to decent bullpen...tough league, tough division.
they'll score about 875 runs this year...and give up about 860. ozzie will be pulling his hair out...but they're on the rise this year, and a .500 team.
if clev doesn't watch out, the chisox could be surpassing them in a year or two...with the right SP moves, of course.

keys to their offense will be cabrera (who's been one of vlad's main spark plugs) and swisher...both excellent additions to konerko, dye, thome, etc.

 

[1/2 point]

I am new here and love baseball.run lines are great to win and back your bets.i play the NL EAST teams and like ATL. maybe i can help with info i took a shot on them to win div. gd odds.If HAMPTON stays healthy they should win,with added fact that B.COX is coaching last season.Do you think JAYS just might win div?If not why ,looks like they have a shot.GL to YOU this season!

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread

Thats what you were doing last night

 

[tipyerbartender1]

MLB team's gotta pitch, what 1400-1500 innings or so? Let's be nice and give Verlander 220 solid innings. Who's going to pitch the other 1200 for the Tigers?

 

[frankiegotti]

Yanks, i also agree with bar great thread. I agree with most of your picks but arizona and cleveland. I think that arizona will be winning the NL west because their top 3 SP's are Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, and Brandon Webb. Randy Johnson can be a 15 game winner again with no pain whatsoever doctors are reporting. That is the main reason why i think they may win the division. They don't have phenominal bats but no one does in the NL west and that division is all about low scoring games and good pitching which is what they have. I do not know their bullpen situation so that may be something that you factored in that i didn't. Also, how do you see the AL central playing out? I know detroit is going to be able to score. I like detroit in 1st 5 inning bets as they will score early but the bullpen rotation is what worries me.

thanks in advance.

 

[SteelBucsFan]

66 wins for the pirates , that LA smog must have you dazed and confused.illow:


pirates win 80 this year

 

[~Utah]

SBF I think you might be way too optomistic, but I think 66 might be a bit low. By the way this is Ebaylor

 

[Blue_Chip]

I think the Bravos pull out the NL East

 

[SteelBucsFan]

Yanks , if i remember correctly you didnt make alot of plays after the all-star break...I think you started to prepare for football..

GL this season

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I am new here and love baseball.run lines are great to win and back your bets.i play the NL EAST teams and like ATL. maybe i can help with info i took a shot on them to win div. gd odds.If HAMPTON stays healthy they should win,with added fact that B.COX is coaching last season.Do you think JAYS just might win div?If not why ,looks like they have a shot.GL to YOU this season!

look forward to your insight this year, bro. :shake:

just don't think the BJs have enough to keep up with the big boys. other than BJ Ryan being healthy this season, hopefully, i jsut don't see how they're really any different/better than the previous season(s).

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

MLB team's gotta pitch, what 1400-1500 innings or so? Let's be nice and give Verlander 220 solid innings. Who's going to pitch the other 1200 for the Tigers?

i hear ya...but even so, it's a service-able staff. and by June, they should also have a much better pen with rodney and zumaya back.

basically though, i see Detroit this year as the Yankees last year. go thru the lineups...they'll produce at the same rate, which will be enough to get 90+ wins imo...along w/ a service-able staff.

i know you love the Tribe. nothing against your team. i jsut expect a downturn this season outta them. it's been a pretty predictable trend in the central lately...where the best teams will take a step (or two) back the following season. minny, cws, det, and now clev imho. it's hard for the mid level teams to sustain success in consecutive seasons, especially when so many have those 'career years.'

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Yanks, i also agree with bar great thread. I agree with most of your picks but arizona and cleveland. I think that arizona will be winning the NL west because their top 3 SP's are Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, and Brandon Webb. Randy Johnson can be a 15 game winner again with no pain whatsoever doctors are reporting. That is the main reason why i think they may win the division. They don't have phenominal bats but no one does in the NL west and that division is all about low scoring games and good pitching which is what they have. I do not know their bullpen situation so that may be something that you factored in that i didn't. Also, how do you see the AL central playing out? I know detroit is going to be able to score. I like detroit in 1st 5 inning bets as they will score early but the bullpen rotation is what worries me.

thanks in advance.

already mentioned a bit on cleveland, with the previous post.
they have the best 2 SPs in the division...but yes, i also think it's a big drop off from there. love their pen, except their closer. but just dont' see them matching runs with detroit...or even the chisox, for that matter. (see my step back theory above. it hasn't missed a beat in the AL Central in some time.)

AZ i also see taking a step back, despite the better rotation. They were a freak of nature last year. I say that because they gave up more runs than they scored last season...which typically would translate to an under .500 team.
Lineup isn't impressive, and neither is their pen. Valverde's in Houston, Lyon (making a comeback) is hurt, and it looks like Pena will close. he's decent, but they'll struggle getting to him. jsut as they'll struggle putting up runs again this year.
Anyways, even with the better rotation...they're going to have to figure out how to score more than they allow. I have them doing very well this season...but not winning, cuz that run differential shit i can't see happening again.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

66 wins for the pirates , that LA smog must have you dazed and confused.illow:


pirates win 80 this year

LA smog is at least better than China smog...or so i hear.

This is jsut my take...my opinion...nothign more. But i jsut don't see how they've improved...though i do love Capps at the end. Considering others improvements in the division, i really do think breaking 70 would be an accomplishment.
Snell, Gorz, Maholm, Duke, etc may keep improving...but where are the runs gonna come from?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

SBF I think you might be way too optomistic, but I think 66 might be a bit low. By the way this is Ebaylor

welcome Alex/Ebaylor :cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I think the Bravos pull out the NL East

that would truly amaze me to see, considering Philly and the Mutts. but it wouldn't upset me either.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Yanks , if i remember correctly you didnt make alot of plays after the all-star break...I think you started to prepare for football..

GL this season

yeah...but it was pretty much only august i took off, if i remember right.

prepared for football, for sure...but it also becomes "like work" capping so much each & every night...so i take/took little bits of time off various times during the season as well.

i'm sure the same will happen this year too...even though i try to keep up with the grind.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

AL East
1.Yankees
2. Blue Jays
3. Red Sox
4. Rays
5. O's

AL Central
1. Indians
2. Tigers*
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals

AL West
1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. A's
4. Rangers


NL East
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

NL Central
1. Reds
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Astros
5. Cardinals
6. Pirates

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. D'Backs*
3. Rockies
4. Padres
5. Giants