2008 NFL Notes

[brewer]

With the season just around the corner and the net flooded with power ratings for next year, who will and wont make the playoffs, etc i wanted to work on my own rankings.

To do so i started by going back and seeing how making the playoffs one year translates to making them the next year.

As we all know 12 teams make the playoffs. 6 from each conference. So just how well does making the playoffs the prior year translate to making them the next?

Since 2000, there have been 84 teams to make the playoffs (2006-2000). Of those 84 teams to make the playoffs just 40 of them made the playoffs the next year! Of those 44 teams not to make the playoffs the the following year 22 have come from the AFC and 22 have come from the NFC. Neither conference has shown an ability to make the playoffs the following year with a greater frequency.

How have particular playoff seeds done the following year?

A #1 seed from the prior year has made the playoffs the following year 8 out of 14 (57%) times.
#2 seeds are 5 out of 14 (36%)
#3 seeds are 7 out of 14 (50%)
#4 seeds are 9 out of 14 (64%)
#5 seeds are 5 out of 14 (36%)
#6 seeds are 6 out of 14 (43%)

As one can see from this the most likely playoff seed from a year ago to make the playoffs the coming year is a #4 seed. They make the playoffs the next year 64% of the time. #2 and #5 seeds, on the other hand, are the least likely to make the playoffs the following year at just a 36% likelihood.

I will take this one step further in this post and look at how many playoff seeds actually stood firm at their playoff seed or improved the next (i.e. a #4 seed remaining a #4 seed or moving up to a #3, #2, or #1 seed).

#1 seeds from the prior year where #1 seeds the next year just 2 out of 14 times.
#2 seeds from the prior year where a #2 seed or better the next year 1 time.
#3 seeds from the prior year where a #3 seed or better the next year 5 times.
#4 seeds from the prior year where a #4 seed or better the next year 7 times.
#5 ... 4 times.
#6 ... 6 times.

So likelihood of a team improving its seed from a year past in this coming year is not good. The playoff seed most likely to accomplish this feat is a #4 seed, who has done so 7 out of 14 times (50%). Least likely is a #2 seed.

So however good those predictions of ...

NE, IND, SD, PIT, JAC, TEN in the AFC
DAL, GB, SEA, TB, NYG, WAS in the NFC

... to return to the playoffs look now (the ones that flood the bookshelves, internet, and tv) won't come playoff time and perhaps even sooner.

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

Great thread, thanks for the info!

 

[brewer]

Not the discussion i thought we would be having in this thread and this forum yet. Maybe this post and my next will get us moving.
<O
So who makes the playoffs you ask?<O</O
<O</O
Using regression analysis and pinpointing key variables in the play of all 32 teams i was able to come up with end of the year predictions based on the play of preseason. Yes, preseason. The same preseason the preludes each regular season that people say is meaningless. I say nonsense. Here's how.<O</O
<O</O
In the NFL you are only as good as your depth. Injuries happen. You can build a roster and hope for no injuries but injuries are bound to happen. Once those injuries hit and if you're left without depth you are lost. See the St. Louis Rams of last year. What a disaster.<O</O
<O</O
What i did was run regression analysis on as much preseason data as i could gather over the last years. Very, very time consuming. If you are not good at programming i wouldn't bother. <O</O
<O</O
I took the numbers and found a correlation but the number was eerily similar to the .32 correlation the DVOA at Football Outsiders has to the next year for teams as a prediction tool. I wasn't pleased and was about to give up then it hit me how to imrpove my numbers. <O</O
<O</O
With my new numbers I now have a .84 correlation coefficient.<O</O
<O</O
I was suprised to say the least so i went back and double checked...running the numbers on the 07 and 06 seasons.<O</O
<O</O
Here is my predicted playoff teams for 07 before week 1 of the regular season even began.<O</O
<O</O
1 - NE<O</O
2 - SD<O</O
3 - IND</ST1<O</O
4 - PIT<O</O
5 - JAC<O</O
6 - BAL<O</O
<O</O
1 - DAL<O</O
2 - CHI<O</O
3 - SEA<O</O
4 - NO<O</O
5 - PHI<O</O
6 - GB<O</O
<O</O
I had predicted 8 of 12 correctly. The four i missed (TEN, WAS, TB and NYG) i had as 7th, 7th, 10th and 11th in their respective conference. So not bad. Whatever the NYG did was real special.<O</O
<O</O
Here is the 06 playoff predictions ...<O</O
<O</O
1 - NE<O</O
2- SD<O</O
3 - IND</ST1<O</O
4- CIn<O</O
5 - JAC<O</O
6 - BAL<O</O
<O</O
1 - DAL<O</O
2- Chi<O</O
3- NO<O</O
4- SEA<O</O
5 - NYG<O</O
6 - PHI<O</O
<O</O
The model was even stronger in 06. Hitting 10 of 12! Thats 18 of 24 (75%) playoff teams this model in my hands had correctly picked before the regular season had even began. <O</O
<O</O
The teams that i missed in 06 where NYJ and KC. I had them at 10th and 13th best in AFC.<O</O
<O</O
Im yet to run the numbers for 2008 but will do shortly...<O</O

 

[tru]

i still dont see how pickin who will make tha playoffs will add up to ats wins week in week out we will see though. like i said on aim i can blindly pick 8 of 12 teams atleast to make tha playoffs. no stats no nothin.

afc

pats
sd
colts
pitt
jags
broncos

nfc
dallas
seattle
tampa
minny
panthers
eagles

 

[brewer]

When you say blindly that would mean you dont pay attention to the sport of football. I know you do because you bet each week and have a winning record since i first seen you posting.

Im willing to say you could beat out the average 2008 predictions the thousands of people at a site like yahoo collectively vote on.

Will you beat out my model ...opcorn:

 

[tru]

beatin a computer doesnt intrest me. what i was sayin to u was i dont understand how somethin when it only picked 8 of 12 teams to make tha playoffs can pick winners at a good rate durin tha regular season.

an by blindy i was sayin jus randomly pickin, not lookin anything over from lastyear, jus usin brain. thats blindy pickin. of course some fuckin women who doesnt know nfl couldnt pick em prob but i have faith in any nfl capper whos been here awhile an understand football to be able to pick atleast 66% of tha teams that make tha playoffs before season starts

 

[brewer]

2008 Prediction

1 - JAC
2 - PIT
3 - SD
4 - NYJ
5 - IND
6 - NE

1 - CHI
2 - SEA
3 - DAL
4 - CAR (6th best in NFC)
5 - PHI (4th best in NFC)
6 - WAS (5th best in NFC)

Team who it likes most to make playoffs... JAC, PIT, CHI.

 

[Tito]

i will be very surprised, as will most I think, if the Bears make the playoffs

 

[brewer]

It likes them more than it did in 06 and 07. Personally, I like the bears and carolina when nobody gives them a shot.

 

[tru]

god has panthers in tha 08 playoffs. no fuckin chance bears make it, sorry

 

[brewer]

+450 to win division i don't know why you see it as such a longshot

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

NFC
Switch MIN with CHI

AFC
Switch TEN with IND


Then I think you've got a winner. But to get back to Tru's main point, even if you pick 10 out of 12 correctly, so what? I wish I knew a book that had "Will X make the playoffs?" futures, but I don't. And again, like Tru said, I could pick 8 of 12 division winners (including the cards) without your system.

So where is the money making application?

 

[GWarner27]

i love the Jax pick, as i'm playing an over future on them.

good luck with these brewer...

i have:
AFC
1) Jax
2) NE
3) SD
4) PIT
5) INDY
6) BUF
NFC
1) DAL
2) SEA
3) TB
4) MIN
5) NYG
6) NO

 

[brewer]

god has panthers in tha 08 playoffs. no fuckin chance bears make it, sorry

opcorn: