East
Florida (8/8) brings back quite a bit from last year’s 9-4 squad and has a schedule that is tailor-made for a NC run, with no big road tests and their toughest game coming against rival Georgia in Jacksonville. With Tebow, Harvin, a slew of RBs and most of the OL returning, their offense could arguably top last year’s 42.5 PPG. The defense was a liability last year, but should be much improved with some experience under their belt.
I am not all about fading UF early on, as their two biggest tests at Tennessee and Arkansas are against teams with questionable defenses and/or secondaries. As the season progresses, though, things may get tougher. The Gators could underestimate Kentucky a little bit the week before Georgia, as the Cats have a scrappy defense and should have the ability to hang within a huge number in the Swamp. I think the first loss comes at the hands of UGA, again, in Jacksonville on November 1. South Carolina should put up a good fight against them a few weeks later, as they did in Spurrier’s first two years at USC. Still, I see an 11-1 season and an SEC East crown, despite losing to Georgia.
Georgia (8/9) finished up 2007 strong, which has made them a national title contender coming into this season. Stafford and Moreno return along with a couple threats at WR and TE, and a solid OL. The defense really put the hammer down late last season, and has nearly everyone back. Unfortunately, they have a brutal schedule – arguably the toughest I’ve ever seen.
The Bulldogs have some high expectations, and I actually don’t think they can live up to them. Stafford does appear to be the second coming of Erik Ainge (a QB who was overwhelmed early on but slowly developed into one of the SEC’s finest), they do have a Heisman contender in Moreno, and their defense and coaching is top-notch – but I’m still not convinced they can make it through the conference unscathed. After traveling to South Carolina and Arizona State, they face Alabama in a brutal spot at home, as they’ll be worn out from three consecutive big games. The week prior to the BIG showdown against Florida, they have to travel to Baton Rouge, which more than likely spells trouble. They also must go to Auburn, arguably the best team in the West, after three consecutive battles against LSU, UF, and UK. I see a 10-2 season, and despite the fact I think they knock off Florida, I think they’ll be watching the Gators in the SEC title game from home.
*Editor’s note: Richt is 25-4 away from home since coming to UGA. Keep this in mind, as it will open up some fading value after UGA wins at South Carolina and Arizona State early on. Bettors will be all about backing the Dawgs on the road when the national media starts buzzing about their phenomenal 27-4 road mark under Richt. Then you’ll get great value fading them in a horrible spot at LSU, just as some of us did against Tennessee last year.
Kentucky (4/8) is facing a rebuilding year after their best season in decades, as they must replace some of the most prolific players in school history. 9 of their top 10 tacklers are back on defense, but the offense loses superstars everywhere. Dual-threat QB Curtis Pulley, who battled Andre Woodson for the starting job two years ago, is expected to take over at QB. A few key contributors are back at RB along with most of the OL, but points may be hard to come by as the Cats are unproven at QB and lose all but one WR. For once, defense may be the name of the game in Lexington.
The schedule is favorable with eight winnable games, but I do not anticipate a tremendous season with so much leadership lost. The opener against their in-state rivals is a horrendous spot, as I expect dramatic improvement from UL this year – the Cats will also be breaking in a new offense in a tough environment. They do catch Arkansas in an ideal spot as the Hogs should struggle a bit early on, and it will be a must-win for the Cats to gain bowl eligibility. I like the thought of them hanging tight as big dogs at Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee, but don’t see them faring well in other spots. I think this team will show some signs of life even in a rebuilding year, as confidence is growing within the program – but I wouldn’t instill too much faith until later in the season.
South Carolina (7/10) struggled with injuries last year and fell off the map after starting the season 6-1 and rising to #6 nationally. Other than losses at QB and RB, they return nearly everyone on both sides of the ball, including a few studs on defense that missed time last year. The offense will hinge on the development of sophomore QB Chris Smelley, who saw plenty of time last year; the defense should excel under new DC Ellis Johnson.
The first true test is at Georgia in Week 3, a game the Cocks will likely drop as Georgia has proven they can win on the road and has some revenge from last year’s upset. USC should be able to handle Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Kentucky on the road, but catches LSU in a bad spot as the Bayou Bengals will likely be coming off a loss at Florida. Tennessee is a tremendous spot after the bye week, as the Vols will be coming off a hard-fought battle against rival Alabama the week before and should drop one. Florida and Clemson are two spots where the Gamecocks could hang in there – but they’d be lucky to split. Overall, I expect a much better season for the Gamecocks, and I think they’re just a few breaks away from 10 wins. This is Spurrier’s best team yet; it is unfortunate that Georgia and Florida are in the same division.
Tennessee (8/6) someway, somehow won the SEC East last year, despite having a defense that yielded 27.3 PPG. They lose an excellent QB in Erik Ainge, but return all their other weapons on offense. The defense loses some of their top guys and could struggle again, although the secondary has a little more experience on their side. Unfortunately, things are looking bleak when it comes to repeating as division champs.
I expect Florida to walk into Neyland and win their fourth consecutive game against the Vols, as I think the Gator offense has too much for this fairly mediocre defense; I am unsure Crompton will have the ability to lead the Vols in a game of such magnitude early in the season. However, I love the spot against Auburn the following week, as I anticipate the Vols bouncing back with a great effort and the Tigers having a letdown coming off a big divisional win over LSU (this is arguably the second best spot I’ve seen in SEC play so far, behind LSU over Georgia). I think UT drops one to Georgia, and then struggles at home against an MSU team they take lightly with Alabama coming up. After losing to SC, I think they win out. Overall, I anticipate 8 wins or so for the Vols – and this time next year, we’ll be talking about UT and their new head coach hoping to rejuvenate the program.
Vanderbilt (3/6) disappointed a bit last year, as they returned 18 starters but still failed to reach bowl eligibility. Things aren’t looking much better this year, as they lose their entire OL and a few of their stars on both sides of the ball. A tough schedule with all their winnable games on the road doesn’t help matters, as it’ll take an upset to avoid a winless season in SEC play.
They start out with two tough tests at Miami Ohio and against South Carolina, games where their inexperienced OL may get exposed. Traveling to Ole Miss with the Rebels looking to pick up their first SEC win under Nutt is not an ideal spot, as well as traveling to Mississippi State. They might be able to catch Georgia sleeping with the Dawgs looking ahead to LSU and Florida, and catch Florida in a good spot later on. It must be acknowledged that Vanderbilt is 13-4 in the last 4 years as road underdogs, so while it may look like this team will struggle from a W/L standpoint, they could be very tough ATS with such low expectations. They do return QB Makenzi Adams and a few threats at WR, along with their entire secondary on defense – so don’t expect them to just lie down all year. Although I don’t think the Dores win many games, I think they could end up being the best team in the East ATS. I see them only winning 3 games or so, but should compete all year.
