2008 Conference Breakdowns: Big 10

[lindetrain]

Sorry for taking so long...went on vacation.

I have to admit, this is the weakest I’ve seen the Big 10 in quite some time. While every team has the potential to reach bowl eligibility thanks to relatively light non-conference schedules, there may be only one team who is in the top 15 at year’s end, and only a few teams who look like top 25 material. I advise everyone to proceed with caution when it comes to capping this conference, as there are 10 teams who I believe are capable of beating one another on a given day – this is a very balanced group behind Ohio State.

Indiana (6/7) is coming off one hell of a season, winning seven games and reaching the postseason for the first time this decade. RB Marcus Thigpen, two key contributors at WR, and two starters on the OL return on offense – starting QB Kellen Lewis was suspended in the spring and is questionable to return. The top two tacklers on defense in Austin Thomas and Will Patterson return as well, along with NCAA sack leader Greg Middleton. Unfortunately, they must replace stars on both sides of the ball in WR James Hardy and CB Tracy Porter.

Typically I would predict somewhat of a drop-off when it comes to a team like IU, as the talent and coaching just isn’t there to duplicate last year’s success. And, with the possibility of Lewis not returning, it is even harder to envision another good season from the Hoosiers. However, there are plenty of guys back who played significant roles last year, and their schedule is favorable – they have four non-conference games that are likely wins, and have six winnable games to start the season. If Lewis returns and they get off to a hot start, they could finish .500 or better. Their first true test is Michigan State, which should set the tone for the rest of the season. Games at Minnesota and at Illinois are not ideal spots, but they catch Northwestern at the right time (NW could slip up after an easy slate to start) and could knock off Iowa at home. With Lewis back they should finish 6-6 or 7-5 – without him, they’ll be lucky to win five games. Either way, they probably won’t make a return trip to the postseason without three or more conference wins.

Illinois (7/6) shocked everyone last year by reaching the BCS, finishing with a 9-4 record and knocking off Ohio State in Columbus in mid-November. Superstar RB Rashard Mendenhall is gone, along with the top three tacklers on D – but plenty of guys return as well. QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, and a pair of All-Big 10 linemen return on offense; a tough DL and All-Big 10 CB Vontae Davis are back on defense.

Last year, the Illini benefited from a favorable schedule that gave them some of the conference’s top teams at home – this year, they aren’t so lucky. Although they have the personnel to be solid once again, the schedule doesn’t do many favors this time around, and you’ll likely see a drop in their win total. They may be able to hang with Mizzou and their vanilla defense in Week 1, but likely won’t knock off the Tigers; they have two tough tests in Happy Valley and Ann Arbor in late September, which they’ll be lucky to split. They do get most of the weaker conference teams at home, along with three sure wins in non-conference, but must travel to Wisconsin and must face Ohio State. I think this team will be good again, but it’s unfortunate there won’t be great spots to bet them in big home games like there was last year. I say they win 7-8 games and pull off an upset somewhere down the road, maybe at Michigan or Wisconsin – just don’t expect another Rose Bowl appearance.

Iowa (8/5) failed to record a winning record for the second straight season last year, finishing 6-6 and missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2000. They return QB Jake Christensen, top WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and the entire OL on offense, and have a defense headed by DLs Mitch King and Matt Kroul and LB AJ Edds. They must replace top RBs Albert Young and Damian Sims, and three All-Big 10 performers in DE Bryan Mattison, LB Mike Humpal, and CB Charles Godfrey.

The Hawkeyes have been a tough team to read the last two years – in 2006, they finished 2-10 ATS after coming into the season with high expectations; last year they went 6-6 ATS with upset wins over Illinois and Michigan State and surprising losses to Iowa State, Indiana, and Western Michigan. This group seems just as tough to figure out, as there are question marks on both sides of the ball with some of the losses they suffered. Will the running game be as efficient after losing Young and Sims? Will the passing game improve with most of its key components returning? Can the defense replace the leadership lost at each level? All are tough to figure out. The Hawkeyes have a favorable start with three winnable games early on – then they likely walk into a tough spot going to Pittsburgh. The first five games should set the tone for the rest of the season; they’re one of the only teams who have 12 winnable games on their schedule, as they avoid Ohio State and Michigan and get Penn State and Wisconsin at home. I think they could be a tough home dog as always, but worry about betting them as favorites, where they were 2-10 ATS the last two years. I expect another 6-win season from the Hawkeyes, but think they could possibly top that if they return to their dominant ways at home and stop dropping games as big favorites.

 

[lindetrain]

Michigan (3/7) really disappointed last year, losing four games after entering the season ranked in the top 5 – one of which came at the hands of I-AA Appalachian State to open the season. Now they’ve got a new coach and a new offense, as all their top weapons in QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and WRs Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington have moved on. The four leading tacklers are also gone on defense, but they return seven starters from a group that was tough in Big 10 play – led by a DL with everyone back, including All-Big 10 DT Terrance Taylor.

It’s pretty easy to expect the Wolverines to struggle, considering this looks like a rebuilding year with new schemes and hardly any experience on offense. However, the arrival of Rodriguez could spark something, and UM might actually end up being one of the better teams in the conference by season’s end. It will take a while for the offense to click, but the defense looks like it should be tough once again, as they showed signs of improvement (before the bowl game) last year and have more experience. A couple tests in non-conference play should help determine where this team is right off the bat – hosting Utah and traveling to Notre Dame will be no easy tasks. I like their chances against Illinois and Michigan State at home as the season progresses, though, and think they have the ability to go 3-0 against Minnesota, Purdue, and Northwestern. I actually think this team could surprise a bit this year, and should finish strong down the stretch to wrap up a 7-8 win season. They could potentially drop to 6-6 if they don’t progress, though.

Michigan State (7/6) finally gave its fans a glimmer of hope last season, finishing 7-6 and reaching a bowl game for the first time in four years under new coach Mark Dantonio. Back is QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, and three starters on the OL on offense; the top two tacklers in LB Greg Jones and CB Kendell Davis-Clark return on defense. The Spartans must replace RB Jehuu Caulcrick, along with receiving threats Devin Thomas and TE Kellen Davis; also gone is All-Big 10 DE Jonal Saint-Dic.

The Spartans were a perfect candidate to surprise last year, as they brought in a great coach in Dantonio who would instill a winning attitude in the program. They did just that, and are no longer in the Big 10 cellar as they were under John L. Smith. They lost no game by more than a TD last year, proving themselves as a great dog bet (5-0-1 ATS). I’m not sure what to expect this year, as they lose a few key guys and play a difficult schedule that include road games at California, Michigan, and Penn State, along with Ohio State in East Lansing. They also must go to Indiana and Northwestern, two places that could be tough to win as well, and host Wisconsin. If the wheels come off, I think they could finish with a losing record, but 6-7 wins seems very possible. Things would really have to fall in place for them to top last year’s win total, as this schedule looks unforgiving. I have to admit, they do catch OSU in an ideal spot in October – the Buckeyes have a big home tilt against Penn State the following week.

Minnesota (8/7) was a team many thought would struggle last year after their firing of Glen Mason, and things turned out to be even worse than anticipated – they won only one game and went winless in Big 10 play. The Gophers allowed a horrendous 36.7 PPG under new coach Tim Brewster, and the offense was clearly unable to keep up. They lose leading RB Amir Pinnix, along with WR Ernie Wheelwright and three of their top four tacklers on defense; back is QB Adam Weber, top WR Eric Decker, three starters on the OL, and a defense led by DE Willie VanDeSteeg and LB Deon Hightower.

It’s hard to see this team doing anything but improving – they weren’t even able to muster up wins against Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, and North Dakota State last year. Brewster did make a good hire at DC with former Duke Coach Ted Roof, who developed some great defenses before taking over in Durham; they badly need someone to help patch things up on that side of the ball. The offense has some potential with Weber and Decker returning, and I think we’ll see a much more competitive bunch this fall. They play three tough non-BCS teams in non-conference, hosting Northern Illinois and Florida Atlantic and traveling to Bowling Green – they must get out 3-1 or better to have any hope of reaching the .500 mark. I think home games against Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa are all very winnable, and if they can pull off those three and do well early on, they could go 6-6. All in all, I think this team probably wins 4-5 games – but don’t be surprised if there is some value with them in conference play. This team should be able to put up some points, and will probably be a little better than given credit for after a non-conference schedule that is more difficult than meets the eye.

Northwestern (7/8) rebounded from a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2006, finishing 6-6 last season under second-year coach Pat Fitzgerald. If it weren’t for two tough home losses to Duke and Iowa, the Wildcats likely would’ve gone bowling for the third time in five years. They lose one of their better wideouts in Kim Thompson on offense and their top two tacklers on defense, but return plenty on both sides of the ball; QB CJ Bacher, RB Tyrell Sutton, and top WR Eric Peterman are back, as well as six starters in the front seven. The defense is led by DE Corey Wootton, NT John Gill, and CB Sherrick McManis.

The Wildcats benefit from a very favorable schedule, which has four likely wins in non-conference play and nine winnable games to start the season – they have the opportunity to be this year’s Illinois if things come together. CJ Bacher didn’t have the greatest TD/INT ratio last year and the rushing game wasn’t overwhelming, but the offense showed plenty of potential and seems poised for a breakout year. Fitzgerald made a great hire at DC, bringing in Wisconsin’s Mike Hankwitz, who should help the unit improve. There should be some great opportunities to bet them early on hosting Syracuse and at Duke – I also think they have the ability to knock off Iowa, Michigan State, and Purdue once conference play starts. Traveling to Indiana and Minnesota in consecutive weeks will be tests after a rather easy start – if they can split those or better, they could be looking at 7-2 going into Ohio State. I think the Wildcats can win 8-9 games this year, and they’re my biggest surprise team so far; things are looking up in Evanston.

 

[lindetrain]

Ohio State (10/9) lost in the BCS Title Game once again last year, but wasn’t supposed to be there in the first place as most anticipated a rebuilding year for the Buckeyes – now they return 19 starters from that group, and are one of the frontrunners to return to the big game. QB Todd Boeckman, RB Beanie Wells, the entire WR corps and 4 starters on the OL are back on offense – the defense is led by superstar LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, and CB Malcolm Jenkins. Gone is DE Vernon Gholston, who was the Big 10 DL of the year.

This will not be an easy team to beat. The running game is one of the best in the nation, and there is stability at QB and WR; the defense is always top of the line. Tressel is also an unbelievable 73-16 in his seven years at OSU. As always, the Buckeyes will be favored in nearly all of their games – their toughest test comes early on, when they travel to LA to face USC. If they can pull off the upset, they could be looking at an undefeated season, as the rest of the Big 10 is down this year. I don’t think they’ll lose at Wisconsin, but Michigan State looks like a dangerous spot; that is arguably the only Big 10 game I can see them losing. This team may be a bit overvalued, but you still have to be wary of fading them, as they proved in impressive performances at Penn State and Michigan last year; they are an impressive 32-17 ATS over the last four years, so proceed with caution. As you all know, there is only one spot where they are a definite fade – in the postseason against an SEC opponent.

Penn State (9/9) struggled last season after reaching the top 10 early on, finishing 9-4 and failing to make a New Year’s Bowl for the third consecutive year. The Nittany Lions were tough at home, but never got much going on the road, losing as favorites to Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State. Gone is QB Anthony Morelli and leading rusher Rodney Kinlaw on offense, along with an All-American LB in Dan Connor; LB Sean Lee will redshirt after tearing his ACL in the spring. The top three wideouts return in Deon Butler, Derrick Williams, and Jordan Norwood, as well as All-Big 10 DE Maurice Evans and SS Anthony Scirrotto.

Despite having one of the conference’s best defenses each of the last two years, PSU has been unable to match their success of 2005, mostly due to a drop in offensive production. Now Morelli has graduated and either senior Daryll Clark or sophomore Pat Devlin will take the reins, hoping to lead the Lions to a big season as Michael Robinson did three years ago. There is plenty of talent at the other skill positions, and the entire OL is back; the defense should be tough once again. Production at the QB position will make or break this team. It looks like they should have no problem winning their four non-conference games; the first two conference games hosting Illinois and at Purdue look winnable as well. Things get tough after that, as they must travel to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa in three of their next four games. If they can win one of those, they have the potential for a 10-win season, as they should be able to win their other three home games. I see them making it back to a New Year’s Day bowl if the QB play is adequate.

Purdue (6/6) had their typical season last year, winning eight games but failing to make much of a splash nationally, as they struggled against better opponents. It’s been a common theme lately, as the Boilermakers have lost 14 straight to ranked teams. They return QB Curtis Painter, RB duo Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor, and WR Greg Orton on offense; the defense returns six starters, led by LB Anthony Heygood. They lose top wideouts Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller, and 5 of their top 6 tacklers on D.

This group had their best offensive output in quite some time last year, averaging 34.3 PPG and putting up at least 33 points in each of their first five games. But things really began to fall apart after a 7-2 start, as they lost their final three games and dropped to the Motor City Bowl. There is hope again with the entire backfield returning, but they must replace their top threats at WR and need to patch up the defense. They have four winnable games to start, but could potentially fall to 2-2 if they lose to Oregon and Notre Dame; things get tough afterwards with games hosting Penn State, at Ohio State, and at Northwestern in consecutive weeks. Games at Michigan State and at Iowa will be tough as well – the Boilers may be lucky to get out with a road win this year. With the tough schedule, I see them winning 5-6 games, which may keep them out of postseason play. It will take some major improvement on the defensive side of the ball to surprise in Tiller’s final year.

Wisconsin (8/9) was unable to match their phenomenal first season under Bret Bielema last year, going 9-4 and regressing quite a bit on defense. The Badgers struggled quite a bit on the road, and fell from the rankings for most of the second half after reaching the top 5. Expectations are high once again this year, as they return quite a bit – RB PJ Hill, All-American TE Travis Beckum, and most of the OL are back on offense; eight of the top nine tacklers, led by All-Big 10 DE Matt Shaughnessy and LB Jonathan Casillas, are back on defense. Gone are QB Tyler Donovan, WR Luke Swan, and DT Nick Hayden.

UW was quite the money maker in 2006, but failed to follow up last year and burned bettors quite often. The offense didn’t have much of a problem replacing QB John Stocco, but the defense lacked the toughness that made them so good two years ago, allowing 23.2 PPG. Now they’ve got nearly all their key parts returning and bring in a QB with some experience in Allan Evridge, a transfer from Kansas State. If Evridge can match or improve on Donovan’s numbers, this offense should be pretty productive, as the running game looks strong with Hill, Brown, and Smith all back. The defense could be much better with improvement in the secondary, which was their strong suit two years ago. They’ll get tested early on, traveling to Fresno State, Michigan, and Iowa, and hosting Ohio State and Penn State. If they can get out of that stretch 5-2 or better, they may be able to match last year’s win total, as the second half is a bit easier. But, if they don’t improve on the road, it could be a long season with some difficult games away from Madison. I’m not particularly high on this bunch at this point despite everything they return, and think they may have their worst year since 2003; the passing game and pass defense worry me a bit.

 

[Blue_Chip]

This is Ohio St's to lose.

Penn St going back to the spread offense should open things up. Morelli being gone might be a good thing. The defense is still stout despite losing Sean Lee.

Wisconsin has a good team compared to the past few yrs.

Northwestern should surprise.

 

[RetroVK]

thanks for this... agree with a lot of your opinions here . Be back later with better thoughts but since i got on your case for taking so long i thought i should pop in and say hi hehe.

i think iowa and northwestern will be the easiest to find value with.

be back later.

 

[RetroVK]

Alright ... thanks for the writeup. my two cents.........

indiana --Let me put this in perspective. I have this team dogged to minnesota when the two meet. That is how bad i think this indiana team is going to be this year. Lets llok at how they did it last year. With kellen lewis being a dual threat and having a stud receiver to throw to in hardy, the hoosiers were able to have a balanced attack. Hardy forced teams to be honest. indiana needed offense because the defense was pretty bad, especially the pass defense that gave up over 240 ypg. Now , they lose the wr that made teams honest, they have lost skill and experience on the OL , they may have lost their qb , and their pass defense rates to get even worse with losses at cb.

as i look over their schedule it is daunting. they start with what should be easy wins over western kentucky and murray state, get a bye and then face ball state at home. now, indiana will be favored there but it isnt the best matchup. ball state has weapons to beat you thru the air and indiana is going to be vulnerable to that. so that mac team is no gimme and then they host michigan state. michigan state should be able to be more physical and take that game. then they travel to minny. they gave up 392 to minny last year. i think this could be a spot to play the might gophers. beware the gopher. After the minnesota game , i have them dogged in every single spot. This rates to be a VERY bad year for this team. i am thinking 4 wins , maybe worse.

 

[RetroVK]

illinois -- personally i think this is one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I realize that juice made a lot of progress last year and he rates to improve as a junior as well but i have never been a believer.
benn has a year of experience under his belt and should be better as well with botht the experience and the coaching. But here is the thing with this team...... they lost their two best offensive linemen , they lost their best offensive player in rb mnendenhall and they lost their two leading tacklers from the defense. Too much. Zook has recruited like a champ but these guys just cant step in there and perform to the level of those guys. And thats the rub. this team ran the ball. that was their identity. 257 yards a game. They lose the three major cogs to that rushing attack.
looking at the schedule, i see this team getting bowl eligible but not much more ... 6 or 7 wins. looking at their ranking , and perception about this team ... i think i can find some value betting against them this year , and probably not a lot betting on them.

 

[RetroVK]

iowa -- oh sweet iowa. this is the team in the big ten i am most looking forward to betting. They had one of the most underrated defenses last year in the nation. Their offense just couldnt produce points. The main reason was the offensive line which i think is one of the most improved lines year over year heading into this year. The skill guys they lose this year are at rb but this line should be adept at opening holes for the new talent and lets face it young and sims werent exactly mcfadden nd jones. they have three quality wr and a qb with experience. Christensen will have a lot more time to throw this year as well. This offense was so bad last year and it will be very improved. When i say that the defense was underrated last year it is because the offense just didnt do enough for these guys. So they were under a lot of pressure and succeeded. The DL this year for the hawkeyes should be formidable , especially up the middle and remember this name ....adrian clayborn , because i think he matures into a GREAT DE. The hawkeyes secondary should be fine and the real concern for this team will be development at the linebacker spot. This team has one of the best homefield advantages in all of college football , has one of the best coaches at developing talent in the trenches , has better talent than last year and is coming off of two down years. smells like a great time to get behind these guys. i believe that football is a game won at the line of scrimmage and the hawkeyes should do that a lot this year. Their schedule lines up beautifully for them and i would expect this team to win 8 or 9 games and be one of the surprises of the season. more importantly i think they will be a great bet until people catch on.

 

[lindetrain]

VK - So you have IU dogged at home to CMU? I don't think it is that extreme to have them dogged at Minnesota - they are about a PK on neutral IMO. It could be a rough year if they don't get Lewis back though.

Illinois has a tough schedule, but I still feel like they've got a lot of leadership on that team that can help them out. They won't come close to what they did last year, but I bet they surprise someone by year's end and take care of the lower-tier Big 10 teams.

You are a lot higher on Iowa than I am. They do have a lot of potential spots as home doggies this year, and could make a splash. But they HAVE to stop sucking so much as favorites, and I'm really worried about some guys they have to replace - more specifically the RB's and their leaders on defense.

 

[RetroVK]

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
VK - So you have IU dogged at home to CMU?

whoops. i made a mistake. i have indiana as a favorite against c mich on nov 1 .. should be about 4 or 4.5 points.

very likely losses --at illy , home northwestern , home wiscy , at penn st, mich st , iowa

very likely wins -- w kentucky murray st , ball st

probable losses -at purdue

probable wins --c mich

coin toss -- minnesota ( depending on how things go i dont see either being more than 2.5 pt favs here )


western kent and murray st are the clear wins... i suspect they get atleast one upset win against either nw , mich st or iowa at home ...but i wouldnt be surprised if they got a split or worse against the two mac teams. i am guessing 4 but i suppose 5 could easily happen if they get lucky... outer chance at 6 even. There is also a chance that this team doesnt win a conference game and finishes with 3 wins.

i think i am on an island with iowa. most things i have read arent calling for much from them.

illinois has talent .. recruiting been awesome .... but people looking to bet these guys are a year late. schedule is terrible too. Hard to find their road win .... missouri -tough , at michigan .. how are they going to score ? , at pennstate -- out-manned , at wisconsin after last year ? dont think so, at northwestern --i guess .... if talent comes together faster than it hink it will .. especially the ol ... then they could do as well as you think.

 

[Magnum Force]

Michigan St, if they can keep Dantonio there and allow him to develop that program I think will become a power in the Big10, most upside of anyone in the conf in years to come.

 

[RetroVK]

Michigan St, if they can keep Dantonio there and allow him to develop that program I think will become a power in the Big10, most upside of anyone in the conf in years to come.

possibly .. love him as a coach. If he is going to do it , i think he needs to 1. beat michigan this year.
2. take advantage of wolverine transition period with recruiting.

Right now michigan st just isn't getting the top notch recruits necessary to do it.

I think the rise of the pitt program might end up hurting penn state as well down the road. Will be interesting to see.

 

[signalcaller]

Just picked up my Steele (I know farrr too late) and I totally agree with him in having PSU in the top 10. Love the playmakers they have on offense and their defense is one of the top in the Big 10. Dont know much about the QB Clark but he seems like a scrambler a little. I have them going 10-2 with losses at OSU and at Wisky but I think they might even be able to pull the one out against Wisconsin. I also personally think they have the best home field advantage in the Big 10. They are 19-2 the last 3 years there. I am going to go with a trip to the Rose Bowl for JoePa this year

 

[cubsker]

I can't imagine a tougher place than Penn St. at night. When Nebraska played there in 02, I couldn't believe how loud it was. Our new QB at the time, Jammal Lord, had no chance.

 

[B.A.R.]

I'll get into this one in the morning but great stuff linde

fwiw, kellen lewis was reinstated.

 

[signalcaller]

^^^
Thats huge for that program. He just needs a target now and they have themselves an explosive offense. Guy is actualy a very underrated QB. Hell of a lot better than Juice IMO

 

[B.A.R.]

I agree Signal. I like his game a lot even sans Hardy