2008-2009 Bowl Season

CapTwo · Dec 20, 2008

Final Record: 11-10 +0.4u- Fucking 4 unit mooses = 8 unit swings.

4 Units:
Gatas -3 (-120)
TCU -2 (-120) :blahblah:
FSU/Wisky Under 52.5==== FSU/Wisky Under 52 (4 units total, 2 each):blahblah::blahblah:

3 units:
Tejas -1/USC -2 TEASER
Wake -3 (-105)
Iowa -3 (-120)

2 units:
Vandy TT Under 17.5 (-115)
BC/Vandy Under 21 1H---
Notre Dame -2
LTech PK
FSU/Cal ML Parlay (-124)
Zona -3
WVU -2
Troy -4 (-116)
NC State/Rutgers Over 54
Nevada -2
BC -3 (-120)
GTech -3 (-120)

1 unit:
BC/Vandy Under 41
Cincy -2.5
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Trying out a new system for managing units... and will be rated 1-4 based of confidence.
Good luck this season fellas:cheers:

CapTwo · Dec 20, 2008

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Wake has the more balanced offense and skinner should have success against the #99 pass D in the nation.

wake has already faced the triple option and will be well prepared for this game. they have the speed to contain it and now that they have seen many looks they should have an intense scouting report which takes away the "surprise" element the TO brings.

Turnovers were the story of this first matchup also…. 6 for wake.
Only worry is their struggle to convert in the red zone. Need I mention the FSU game? Swank is healthy now and I hope that doesn’t mean that they will continually rely on him and settle for 3 like they have been
<o></o>
Arizona- zona’s first bowl in 10 years so I like the motivation here…. While BYU is disappointed to be in anything but a BCS bowl.

Arizona should be able to run the football effectively (BYU giving up near 150 per game on the ground) setting them up for the big pass play against a very young and inexperienced BYU secondary….. giving up the big play on defense has been BYU’s downfall all season.

Zona sports a very balanced offense (like TCU does) and I like them to have some long sustained drives to wear down the BYU defense and keep Max Hall off the field.

BYU has failed to impress me this season, especially when playing against quality teams. The only two they played close to zona’s caliber was Utah and TCU and they lost both of those games by a considerable margin.

Yanks27Sox9 · Dec 20, 2008

luv the card so far, cap :shake:

xcept for zona, lol. but i might join u on the tx/usc teaser. i'm on both sides already, but that may be worth adding.

GL tomorrow, C2 :cheers:

Marlo · Dec 20, 2008

Good Luck Cap, hope the return is profitable. On Wake myself

ManchesterUk · Dec 20, 2008

Thanks cap,GL

hile75 · Dec 20, 2008

with you on wake today, bol

CapTwo · Dec 20, 2008

Yanks=- thanks for the sympathy bump brotha ; ). i really like that teaser a lot too, surprised not to see anyone else on it yet. hope u hope on and we cash that bitch

marlo- wake starts our season off with the W!!! i was at the game yelling and talking MAD shitr and im still drunk as fuck. its going to be a 7 pm bedtime for cap. we started sipping at 7:30 this morning...

manchester- thanks bro gimme some EPL winners!

hile- GL bro glad to see us startin off the season right

RetroVK · Dec 21, 2008

wtg cap

HUNT · Dec 21, 2008

good shit bro.

CapTwo · Dec 27, 2008

thanks hunt and kyle.... a good start came to a screeching halt after the troy game and the TCU failed cover. hoping to get back on the winning track tomorrow.... for the most part, bowl card is complete and will probably only add 1-2 wagers. not going to force anything... TCU was my favorite play and they failed to cover.

fuck TCU. just another game they completely dominated the stat sheet and failed to cover. see ross evans/Utah game. this was the game I was most confident of during bowl season and there will not be another 4 unit play besides this FSU/Wisky under. after boise tried that trick play on the lateral to johnson on the kickoff, TCU was caught up in trying to match them and forcing trick plays of their own. getting away from their run-run-run gameplan out of the option and letting their defense win games for them. TCU was simply outcoached in the first quarter, until they made adjustments and got back to their intitial gameplan, and that was our cover. that and the ridiculously stupid trickplay INT w/ kerley in the wildfrog formation. the defense was excellent and won the field-position game for them.... tough loss, and the forcing of trick plays was our cover but we move on....

thoughts on this weekends games:

CapTwo · Dec 27, 2008

FSU:
best defense wisky has faced all season besides tOSU....
FSU has one of the best front 7's in the country and the wisky run-balanced offense is going to have some serious trouble moving the football. dont buy into the stats because the numbers are skewed, they faced some very high powered rushing attacks in UF and Gtech. This is one of the top 10 rushing defenses in the country.

this is a wisky team, that has struggled with the spread offense and mobile QB's all season which is why ponder and the occasional richardson should give them shits. missing their anchor on defense-no casillas will also severely hinder wisky's ability to stop the run.

Simply put, FSU matches up very well against Wisky... you stop the run/PJ Hill, you stop wisky. everidge has choked under pressure all season and FSU has plenty of speed on defense and will be bringing it. I am quite confident they can hold them to under 20 points. FSU will contain the run and stop the predictable wisky attack. They should be able to have their own success running the football and dominate the time of possesssion and control the game.

Ltech: two teams going in opposite directions. NIU played their best football early on and LT has come on strong during the second half of the season.
Ltech will win this game forcing NIU to throw the football. they will have have success stopping the run (giving up only 100 YPG) and be able to bring pressure against the freshman QB harnish.... who in his starts this season has thrown for 2 TD's (both against Kent) and 7 picks. i expect them to sell out on the run early and forcing harnish to beat them, which he wont, resulting in plenty of 3 and outs and a field position game which favors LT.

i really believe the turning point for this team was when they were in A battle of who could run the football better in LT vs Army... in which bowden threw 9 times for 39 yards but army rushed for 200 + in a 14-7 victory in a game which was tied going into the 4th. LT had 152 total yards in that game and werre completely stymied. They followed up with a big win at home against fresno and then went into SJSU and won there as well. Unfortunately, after winning 4 straight they collapsed while up 31-21 after 3 agaist nevada, getting outscored 14-0 in the 4Q and losing that game. they blew it.

Thats where the motivation factor comes into play, after they blew the nevada game in the 4Q. This is only the 3rd bowl of the history of LTech football, theyve never won a bowl game, and they will be amped for this matchup.

RetroVK · Dec 27, 2008

Ltech: two teams going in opposite directions. NIU played their best football early on and LT has come on strong during the second half of the season.
Ltech will win this game forcing NIU to throw the football. they will have have success stopping the run (giving up only 100 YPG) and be able to bring pressure against the freshman QB harnish.... who in his starts this season has thrown for 2 TD's (both against Kent) and 7 picks. i expect them to sell out on the run early and forcing harnish to beat them, which he wont, resulting in plenty of 3 and outs and a field position game which favors LT.

i really believe the turning point for this team was when they were in A battle of who could run the football better in LT vs Army... in which bowden threw 9 times for 39 yards but army rushed for 200 + in a 14-7 victory in a game which was tied going into the 4th. LT had 152 total yards in that game and werre completely stymied. They followed up with a big win at home against fresno and then went into SJSU and won there as well. Unfortunately, after winning 4 straight they collapsed while up 31-21 after 3 agaist nevada, getting outscored 14-0 in the 4Q and losing that game. they blew it.

Thats where the motivation factor comes into play, after they blew the nevada game in the 4Q. This is only the 3rd bowl of the history of LTech football, theyve never won a bowl game, and they will be amped for this matchup

:smiley_acbe:Well said , sir

Marlo · Dec 27, 2008

Lets cash this under Cap.

buckeyeburritos · Dec 27, 2008

gl cap

signalcaller · Dec 27, 2008

GL today Cap

CapTwo · Dec 29, 2008

Still feeling kicked in the balls---Two biggest plays, two biggest mooses.

TCU -2 4 units--- too many forced trick plays early and Boise not letting them score to get the ball back. but didnt complain, accepted it.

Then the FSU under came...was VERY confident on this one and felt i capped it correctly. expected to see a grind it out game and had wisky down for 17-20.

well it was 7-3 with one minute remaining in the second half... and was a field position/grind it out game w/ under looking great. FSU managed to score with a few ticks left instead of a FG and we're looking at 14-3 at the half. still good.

then looking at 14-6 with about 5 minutes left in 3Q but FSU driving.
still, had under 32.5/32 in the last 20 minutes of the game. should be easy, right? NO.

fucking everidge could not hold on to the football and FSU gets another defensive score. then yet another fumbles sets them up for another TD.
meanwhile, FSU 2nd stringers are owning wisky... so they end up pulling those guys out and went with the 3rd stringers.... which lead to the inevitable wisky backdoor for a TD thanks to 3rd stringers and prevent defense with a minute left.

CapTwo · Dec 29, 2008

that FSU under really really stung. and more that it was a 4 unit play... guess thats how this seaosn is going to go. should have flat bet i guess...

anyways, felt i capped the LTech game right and was happy a lot of us CTG'ers cashed on that one. seriously considered adding a unit and making it a 3 unit play but after the FSU under moose just wasnt feeling it. plus the line was up to -2.5 today

unfortunately, me and a lot of others lost all value on the NCState side....we sat back when it was at +8.5 and were hoping bob would help us ge thtis one to DD. fucking bob moved the line the other way down a point, where it continued to drop and sit at +6.5 now.
so where is the value on a game that is probably going to be a shootout with each QB slinging it to expose the others weak secondary... and only getting under a TD? this game coudl easily decided by more then one score.

so no play on the side....although i like NCState. maybe a small 1 unit play on the +220 ML. good luck fellas.... hopefully some luck comes back our way this week.
after losing both WVU and TCU by a point, and the FSU under... im hoping some comes back our ways.

RetroVK · Dec 29, 2008

yup .... i liked the under you got moosed on and was whining to rj about it during the first half , how i wished i had bet it. bad moose.

nothing i can do with ncstate game now other than pray the favorite money starts coming in late , which seems to be the trend so far.

CapTwo · Dec 31, 2008

Boston College Eagles/Under:

ACC/SEC matchup, balanced offense against a run-based offense with dead arm QB's, but distinct advantage with the size of BC's line on both sides of the ball. BC wins this game dominating in the trenches. depth in the vandy DL has been a problem all season and the bigger, more physical team who can grind-it-out and wear you down with the run will win. BC is used to it with the ACC style of football, while vandy is used to SEC football. Plus BC always seems to excel in bowl games.

BC only giving up 273 total yards a game, 6th ranked overall defense in the ncaa... only giving up 2.9 ypc/92 a game on the ground. and leading the country forcing 26 interceptions. (hopefully not for a pick 6 today lol)

Vandy has lost 6 of 7 and is slumping.
Vandy has put up 14 points or less in 7 of its last 8 games (thus the TT under).....

I just dont see how theyre going to move the football here. This offense is really predicated on being able to run the football and BC can stop that. They have no QB, hell they havent even decided if its going to e nickson or adams yet, probably both. BC can stack the box all day and just sell out on the run. No way vandy beats them through the air. I dont see how vandy will score here. BC should be able to dominate the time of possession and win this one pretty comfortably.

24-13 BC.

CapTwo · Dec 31, 2008

Damn, just checked around and see CKR beat me to the writeup punch by about ten minutes!

Oh well. Definitely glad to see him on the same side, not someone you want to be against.
Anyways, I feel strongly about this one.... but then again I felt strongly about NCSU over and Nevada yesterday and both QB's got injured lol.

I have learned not to make bigger plays on one specific total and rather to spread it out.
For example, in the FSU under fuckjob, had i thought it out and spread it out more, played 1H under, wisky TT under, and full game under... i still woulda hit 2 of 3 and came up with a profit. Instead I lost and lost 4 units. So..

Vandy TT Under 17.5 (-115)2 units
BC/Vandy Under 21 1H--- 2 units
BC/Vandy Under 41 1 unit
BC -3 (-120) last night - 2 units

Reason for this is I am worried about BC wearing vandy's DL down and maybe breaking some big runs in the second half. No more damn backdoors hopefully...

Anyways thats it. Feel strongly about this one, but at the same time eally need this one to make or break the season.
If it doesnt hit, well fuck. Probably wont add any more action and just watch the rest of the bowl games on what I have left out there. GL fellas lets hit it:cheers:

panos · Dec 31, 2008

Hey, bud.

I think I'll tail with that Under 41.

BOL today and Happy New Year!

CapTwo · Dec 31, 2008

:cheers:

Thanks Panos, my fellow jets brother, Lets cash bro.

Vandy went on a limb and is starting SMITH.

This should be interesting.

opcorn:

Marlo · Dec 31, 2008

gl buddy

Marlo · Dec 31, 2008

Nice work on the BC game totals dude, shit happens on the side dude.

3rd & Long · Dec 31, 2008

:cheers: Happy New Year Cap!

B.A.R. · Jan 1, 2009

Happy New Year Hoss,

Excellent work on those totals today.

CapTwo · Jan 9, 2009

lmao at bowls...... all this shit up and down, and i fuckin BROKE EVEN. made roughly +0.4units...

still, i look at that as a positive, as my two biggest "mooses", TCU and the FSU Under (which was by far the worst) were my two biggest plays (till the gators won tonight). i should have lost money.... so ill count it as a plus.
much better then last season when i won about 15 units and then lost about 35 during bowl season chasing!!! it was ugly. i was hitting around 30%... but that was last year.

each one of those 4-unit-play screwjobs was an 8 unit swing, and had i won at least ONE of them, id be very happy picking up around 8.5 units.

but i didnt, and the CFB seaosn is nowover. was a great regular season though picking up about 25 units and hitting around 60%... learned alot from the regulars here, and look forward to conversing with you guys next season! hope everyone had an enjoyable bowl season, and BOL till then...

thanks for the insight/discussions CTG. no where else can even compare to the knowledge on here:cheers:

HUNT · Jan 9, 2009

way to end on a high note bro.

Joe Public · Jan 9, 2009

Congrats, Cap.

=)

2008-2009 Bowl Season

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