2007 MLB Preview

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
I do this each and every year. Partly to test myself...and partly in determining any future plays. The only difference this year is that i won't be making any future plays. Just too many uncertainties to tie up any funds for an entire season. That said, i still put the usual work into preparing for the upcoming season...and to keep testing myself.

Also of note...i'm of course open to discussing/debating any or all of my predictions. That's a good part of what this site is about. And also the below numbers reflect what i believe will be the continued AL dominance of the NL in interleague play. Just don't see any reason why that trend won't continue for at least another year. (But if you want, you can cross check all the numbers...they'll all add up, total games-wise.)

So, here's what the #'s below will mean. First, i'll place how i predict the divisions to finish. The first number will be my predicted win/loss totals for the team in '07. The next number will be a plus or minus...the difference in wins from that team's 2006 totals. And the third number will be the current over/under line for 2007.
Then after listing everything...i'll come back with additional predictions for the upcoming season.

It's spring...and a new season of bases is just around the corner!!! And hopefully it'll be a profitable season for all of us.
So here we go...



AL EAST

NYY = 95-67 / -2 / 96.5
BOS = 89-73 / +3 / 90.5
TOR = 88-74 / +1 / 87
BAL = 72-90 / +2 / 73.5
TB = 64-98 / +3 / 67.5

AL CENTRAL

CWS = 88-74 / -2 / 88.5
DET = 87-75 / -8 / 88.5
CLE = 86-76 / +8 / 86
MIN = 84-78 / -12 / 83.5
KC = 66-96 / +4 / 67

AL WEST

LAA = 90-72 / +1 / 90.5
OAK = 87-75 / -6 / 85.5
TX = 84-78 / +4 / 80.5
SEA = 82-80 / +4 / 78.5


NL EAST

PHI = 90-72 / +5 / 88.5
NYM = 87-75 / -10 / 89.5
FLA = 81-81 / +3 / 78
ATL = 77-85 / -2 / 83
WAS = 63-99 / -8 / 68

NL CENTRAL

CHI = 86-76 / +20 / 83.5
STL = 85-77 / +2 / 85
MIL = 83-79 / +8 / 80.5
CIN = 81-81 / +1 / 76.5
HOU = 74-88 / -8 / 78.5
PIT = 63-99 / -4 / 70.5

NL WEST

LAD = 87-75 / -1 / 88.5
AZ = 85-77 / +9 / 78.5
SD = 80-82 / -8 / 83.5
SF = 74-88 / -3 / 81
COL = 72-90 / -4 / 76



As for the playoffs...and for shits & giggles...

NYY over CWS CHI over PHI
BOS over LAA LAD over NYM

NYY over BOS LAD over CHI

NYY over LAD in 6 games!!!


_________________________________

Be back in a bit with some more stuff. But about the only '07 prediction i'm not altogether comfortable with is in regards to the Cubs. I may have over-valued them this coming season, thinking that Lou will scare his bullpen into performing at least half of the time.

In any case...bring it on. These are only my personal handicapped predictions, and everything's up for debate.

:36_7_3:
 
some more stuff...

My AL predictions are pretty close to the lines. Nothing is at a difference of 5 games or more. In fact, i do find it very interesting that all five such cases...where my predicted numbers are 5 or more games off of the listed lines...are all in the NL.

Anyways...if i was gonna make some future plays...these would be the five i'd look at...based upon my '07 predictions.


ATL under 83 wins

WAS under 68 wins

PIT under 70.5 wins

SF under 81 wins

AZ over 78.5 wins


All the other lines for team win totals i think are pretty damn tight this year. But of these five...the two in the NL West are my favorites. SF is old, and they're not gonna be improving this year. AZ, especially considering the staff they assembled, is primed for a significant improvement...in what's not all that strong of a division.


Anyways, i'll keep adding stuff over the course of the week...as we lead up to Opening Day.
Can't fucking wait!!!

:cheers:
 
2 more things of note...

The first is, with the exception of a few bottom-feeders, Bud Selig gets even more of the parity (parody, imo) that he likes this year.

The second is the AL Central...before all of SEMCON gets their panties in a twist. Even though i think the AL Central is the best division in baseball now...i also think that the overall quality of the division will balance things out, as predicted. Meaning that the top 4 teams in the division will beat each other up over the year, keeping the win totals lower then some may expect.

And remember...like with the Tribe the year before, or even the White Sox...it's very difficult for a team (ie: the Tigers) to duplicate the magical year they had the previous year...and for everyone (namely the pitchers) to duplicate the career years they all enjoyed. There will be a bit of a slide...and if it weren't for Leyland, i woulda predicted an even greater slide. But things have a way of balancing themselves out over time.
 
I'm not as sold as you are on the rotation of Webb, Johnson, L. Hernandez, D. Davis and ??? for the D_Backs. If their young hitters progress well throughout the season I can see them getting to 85 wins, but I think their time to shine will be next 2008 or 2009.
 
Great stuff always enjoy looking at over unders for the year. A friend and I pick teams and go head to head for the year total wins and W.S. winner. His proposition this year is he gets NYY-PHIL-TEX-CLEVE-ARIZ-CUBS. I get any other team from each division and get to add 1 team for example I could have BOS-NYM-LAA-DET-STL and then 1 more team like either WSOX/OAK and if they had a better record than the team in their respected division I replace them. Looking at your teams I guess you give addvantage to his teams? Anyway hope the thread keeps up not any team previews this year.:cheers:
 
Great thread

Shocking to see your WS winner(lol) ;)

Yes the Tigers will be different this year. Less luck late in games but overall a better team IMO. A vfew less wins but enough to take division IMO.

See ya in the ALCS
 
If the Jays can get a solid 4th guy that can keep them in ball games, they will get 90 wins easily. I expect 20 wins from Doc and at least 15 from AJ. Our set up men and closer are the real deal. Waiting to see whats happening with Rios, would love him to stay but we need an arm badly. I think Chacin is good for 15 wins as well meaning Towers cannot get anyworse then last year but who knows if he'll be on the rotation. This is make or break year for John Gibbons. He's got the money and the backing of the board, now its up to him to turn this team into the real deal.
 
B.A.R. said:
Great thread

Shocking to see your WS winner(lol) ;)

Yes the Tigers will be different this year. Less luck late in games but overall a better team IMO. A vfew less wins but enough to take division IMO.

See ya in the ALCS
Click to expand...

we shall see, buddy.
it's not that i dont' think they're a great team. they're just in the best division in baseball, imo. and all 4 teams (minus KC...and yes, even Minny) will take away wins from each other.
that, and history. the halos were a better team the following year, but look what happened in '03. same can be said of the white sox in '06, after having the magic in '05. this stuff jsut happens.

i'm sure a part of it is luck. jsut as luck, good bounces, etc were obviously a part of the yankees dynasty as well. but it's jsut SO very hard to duplicate things, when so many have career years all at once. and then there's the fact that they won't be sneaking up on anyone...when in fact, everyone guns a little extra for those at the top.

jsut think it'll be very difficult for them to win their division this year.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
If the Jays can get a solid 4th guy that can keep them in ball games, they will get 90 wins easily. I expect 20 wins from Doc and at least 15 from AJ. Our set up men and closer are the real deal. Waiting to see whats happening with Rios, would love him to stay but we need an arm badly. I think Chacin is good for 15 wins as well meaning Towers cannot get anyworse then last year but who knows if he'll be on the rotation. This is make or break year for John Gibbons. He's got the money and the backing of the board, now its up to him to turn this team into the real deal.
Click to expand...


maybe so, T-Mike

it wouldn't hurt my feelings one bit to see the BJs swap places with the BoSox, and get the wild card.

as for 90 wins...i think it'll be difficult for most everybody. it all comes back to the parity Selig has been after, and is getting. (tho i still call it parody.)
 
chancedog said:
Great stuff always enjoy looking at over unders for the year. A friend and I pick teams and go head to head for the year total wins and W.S. winner. His proposition this year is he gets NYY-PHIL-TEX-CLEVE-ARIZ-CUBS. I get any other team from each division and get to add 1 team for example I could have BOS-NYM-LAA-DET-STL and then 1 more team like either WSOX/OAK and if they had a better record than the team in their respected division I replace them. Looking at your teams I guess you give addvantage to his teams? Anyway hope the thread keeps up not any team previews this year.:cheers:
Click to expand...


actually, you'd have an excellent shot. i agree with his east picks, nl and al. but TX ain't winning the al west...and though i really like AZ, i don't think they're that good yet for the nl west.
and both central leagues are totally up for grabs. i can make a good argument for 3 teams in each division...AL central, and NL central. So seeing that you'd get extra picks...imho, the advantage is yours.
 
Got to believe that who ever gets Clemens gets the division...(AL East)

Tribe believes they will win the opening series in CHI-TOWN!
 
Good Luck with Pavano being opening day starter. He's either going to end up being a Cy Young award winner or just another goof ball. I am not sold on this Yankees pitching line up. Moose and Petitte are getting way too old. Not too sure how long it will last, injuries to this starting line up can really ruin their chances of winning the ALCS. I still think they'll be a 90 win team but there is no way they'll win the World Series with this group of guys. Good Luck
 
Toronto_Mike said:
Good Luck with Pavano being opening day starter. He's either going to end up being a Cy Young award winner or just another goof ball. I am not sold on this Yankees pitching line up. Moose and Petitte are getting way too old. Not too sure how long it will last, injuries to this starting line up can really ruin their chances of winning the ALCS. I still think they'll be a 90 win team but there is no way they'll win the World Series with this group of guys. Good Luck
Click to expand...


T-Mike...
No doubt that the SPs are the Yanks one weakness this season. One & only, imo. And as far as Pavano...the fact that he's starting opening day is pretty much meaningless. I don't expect much of anything from this guy.

In any case, a part of my prediction on the season for the Yanks is under the assumption that starting pitching will be addresses during the year.
The Yanks freed up quite a bit of money this offseason for just this, imo.
First, there's Roger...i do expect Clemens to come back, and come back to the only team that got him a ring. I also expect another SP move by the trading dealine. Then Wang, Moose, and Andy will be both sufficient and inning-eaters.

The NYY pen is much improved...and they're lineup is still totally stocked.
Every team's got at least one weakness...the Yanks (for now) jsut happens to be SP, which is also what's most important come playoffs.

We'll see. The only thing (well, other than The Rocket) that i'm hoping for is that the Yanks do not panic at some point during the year...but in terms of Philip Hughes. Maybe a couple Sept starts...but the thing i want most is for the Yanks to leave him in triple A this season, and not end up rushing him to the bigs.
 
Very well written Yanks

I am not that concerned about the pitching staff either because they will address that if it needs to be fixed before summer.

I didn't expect a win from that shithead Pavano this yr so anything over 1win is exceeding my expectations.
 
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