2.9

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Managed a beautiful 1-3 when I had 4-2 from original leans . The best is the losses BOTH were due to OT. That is never fun. However I cant bitch when the Hornets played 5th in 7 nites already off OT and outlasted my team in Double OT after a 4th q run...Early Boykins damn missed FT late! Two things stand out well three: Betting to many coin flips lately. Which are games that basically can go either way. Its okay to pass on a game I just have to remember that. Second is I am betting to heavily UNIT wise on these marginal plays. That was due to probably to much success at one point. The third is shit I forgot the third. oh yeah Overthinking!!! I cant tell ya how many plays I have overthought past few weeks. Had all the ducks lined up on the UNDER in Det and then switch to the Ova..smart , real smart...Last is need to lurk and post less. Some days I could swear I see every line move and that is part of the problem. So probably more late nite comemnting with early morning dribble and then get it tightened up from 5-7 PM...

So for Friday two dogs stand out : Port +4 & Boston +4.5 . I know we dont want to asky why Boston ...HINT..its part of the FADE NJ plot that has been successful but foiled but by a whistle happy REF in ATL.. Portland cause Charlotte seems to be slumping but Knight could return at any moment. We al lknow Portland if they win ATS it tends to be SU. So ML makes sense in a game that is basically a coin flip.

Three totals really stand out : Under 191 NJ , Over 215 Memphis and Under 192 Miami . All seem to be fairly logically.

leans : Mavs and the Ova . Under Portland 188. Ova 203 LAL...Heat + Deuce

Good Luck
 
Bettor's alert: Allen Iverson will miss the Sixers two-game road trip due to his swollen ankle. No line has been set.

Bedtime!
 
Boston here as well. I left them alone all this time, and now after 15 games you're telling me they're a 2.90 dogs at home against NJ? Why? No way is this ok, despite the awful funk they're stuck in.


I like the Heat, I think Shaq & Wade do it tonight against King James. Leaning towards Golden State as well, the Bulls are b2b and as we could've seen last night, their guards are in a shooting funk. I don't see them stepping up now, maybe I'm wrong. Have to see how trustworthy GSW are at this point.


That's it for now.

Good luck SportsNut :shake: :cheers:
 
Thanks guys. I'll be back a bit later to start trimming off the fat.

Lakers @ Tor : I do think Tor is for real but not sure I want to lay 4 vs LAL. Probably Tor or pass. Would think after the offense was so frustrated last nite namely KObe who had what 81 vs them last season we could see fireworks here.

LAC @ Philly : The Clippers have simply become the Bulls of the West . Its hard to take them in a spot where they must win away. So with Philly playing fairly well lean home team and the total is tight but it would be ova or pass.

Portland @ Char : Played Blazers small already but waiting on Knights availability. Had like the under at 188 but down to 185 is marginal now. What also scares me is the BS that shows more on Char but the line dropping...all the favs have covered in this situation this week so I have been trying to figure this angle out...go back and double check favs that were like 65% or better and saw the line drop from the open and all the favs covered

SA @ Orl : The Spurs looked great last game and Orl is struggling but this is home dog or pass. BEst avenue if u like SA is probably 1st H since they allow so many backdoor covers. Is Tony BAttie that important?

Den @ Ind : Both teams are sort of desperat now and Den is showing me nothing so wont back them possible over? AI 's out , Camby's Q and O'Neal is expected to play

Nj @ Boston : trying toget the best price possible on bad Boston and went Under already. Basically its not that I dont think NJ should be favored cause technically they should its there rididculous travel schedule and older roster plus injuries that have left them undersized.

Miami @ Cle : Thinking Miami ML and played the Under . The difference bewteen now and last week is Shaq is in a groove...

Minny @ Mem: Looking at the home doggie and Over

Hou @ Dallas : Both teams playing well and the Over looks so attractive. Have to think about a side. Dallas is so tough at home but Hou gave them battle last meeting.

AtL @ Pho : Nash probably sits . With a thin bench I think ATL +11.5 is worth a flyer. Joe Johnson returning and the Hawks have talent. They probably would be better in an open court game then half court offense due to inconsistent jump shooting....

Chi @ GSW: think its GSW or pass at the moment...possible under...
 
Thanks BAR. BOL

7PM:
Spurs 1st Half -3.5 {2units}
Pacers -7 -115 {2units}
Under 205 Ind {2units}
Over 204.5 Lakers {4units}
Sixers +1 {2units}
Celtics +5 {4units} ML +180 {unit}
Under 191 Boston {4units}
1st H Boston +2.5 {unit}
1st H Under 91 {2units}

The first set of games keeping it simple. The Magic look so attractive. I am big Spurs hater as far as gambling goes. It so hard to pass them up but with 4 somewhat key players sidelined I think its best to back SA 1st H. When SA covers they tend to smoke teams in the 1st H and you can go back to a few games to see this. ORL is just impossible to figure out. Tempted to take ORL team UND 88 or even the game UND but wont.

Sort of unconventional with IND and the UNDER. I think Den has some issues they are battling besides injuries. I mean 1-7 SU last 8 with only an OT victory at home vs Portland. They are not playing good ball and 0-3 away SU & ATS to boot. The line seems high bit actually dont think it is . O'NEal will play and that should be plus since Nene is the only interior presence for DEN. They are down to only Kleiza and Evans off the bench with JR Smith starting , unles Diawara and Sampson back into some playing time. If you look at the Sea game sick shooting numbers and teh game hit 205. Dont this is as competitive though..Looking for 101-91 type deal.....

The Lakers is basically looking for a frustrated Kobe and Co to bounce back after yesterday . The Raps have scored a ton past 4 games and LAL could be a little weary after such a physical game and flight. Thinking about Toronto...

With Philly wonder if Dalembert plays but Maggette and Tim Thomas the keys to LAC offense outside of Elton and Cassell are very questionable. home team is 9-1 last 10 with Sixers playing better of late and LAC still struggling to find road glory.

Made about 4 plays I changed my mind on : Port +4 , Und 188 Port , Orl +7 and Raps -4 plus thought seriously about a Philly over which I might think about again depending on availability of above said players.

2/9: Paul Pierce was a surprise participant at the Celtics shootaround Friday morning, a day after getting released from the hospital, the Boston Globe reports. Even more surprising: Pierce may play tonight against the Nets. He's coming back from an infection in his left elbow in addition to a left foot injury. If Pierce does play, he'll be on a strict minutes limitation for the time being: 15 minutes for a game and no more than three minutes without a break.

While I dont see the on court return of Pierce special due to his extended absence and rust the mental aspect could be huge. Thats just speculation though. For me as I said its a fade of NJN. There travel schedule has been ridiculous literally never having consecutive home games . Meaning they travel to and from every game. So after the crushing loss in Philly they barely responded with a 2 pt win in ATL. Like Boston size and althecism vs NJN.


GL
The Boston total is based on NJ struggling for 5 straight games to crack 90 in regulation. The Celts jhavent played much defense allowing previous 5 before Miami to crack 100. Boston still though has cracked 90 just once past 5 at home. Wally will miss and that isnt significant cause of his recent status but its still a reliable shooter / scorer.
 
brewers_fan said:
you have any thoughts on kobe over 30 pts tonight?
Click to expand...


Hard to imagine he doesnt break that. You could hear the frustration in his comments. Oh wait he was bitching about DETs aggressive defense. Same deal though Kobe is a whiner but still can turn it on. Really havent looked at much but he has struggled from what I recall in back to backs...81 vs Tor last year enticing...
 
excellent write-ups as always. We're on the same side in several plays, the over in Toronto, Spurs 1st H, and I like the Celts as time goes by.


Good luck tonight SN, let's cash in buddy :shake: :cheers:
 
just hit up BOs +5. pierece is back tonight all tho it is limited minutes, just having him on the court for whatever time he does play (15 mins) is gonna be a huge emotional lift for BOs tonight IMO. Also, NJ has a look ahead to a revenge game with teh orlando magic on saturday after Orlando beat down on NJ in Orlando not to long ago.

i like cleveland only laying a bucket against the heat. Cavs had control in their last matchup with the heat for almost all of the game. then d wade + refs took over. lol. i think cleveland needs that big win over a big name team to get them back on track, i think tonight against the heat is that game.

also, like the lakers/Tor over i have both teams reaching a 100 and it being tight down the strecth. side could go either way tho.

anybody know the pt guard situation for golden st? monta in? baron? bulls havent won at golden st in a long, long while.
 
8PM:

Grizzlies +2 {3units}
Over 107 1st H {2units}
Over 213.5 Mem {4units}
Cavs -2 {2units}
Under 192 Miami{5units}
Under 96.5 1st H {1unit}
Hawks +11.5 {3units} +10.5 {2units} ML +520 {1/2unit}
Over 99.5 1st Half {2units}
Over 185 Houston {3units}
Houston +4 1st Half {2units}

The memphis game the best play to take them is obviously at home and they have historically played well vs Minny at home. Minny hasnt been consistent enough to warrant road chalk.

Decided that despite Miami's recent success there was to much Miami love out there. Cle played better then they did last meeting so I think this should be another tiht one with the home team escaping again. Look at Cle last 2 home games and that is what I expect here.

Atlanat and Suns both tend to score more in the 1st half recently. See no reson why Suns are DD fav w/o there PG and a somewhat short bench. Wouldnt be shocked to see ATL get blownout or WIN SU....expect a good game from Joe Johnson....

The Rockets played well the 1st H last meeting and that can be DAL achilles ...slow starts. The total seems way to low but it was only 180 last meeting...still seems to ez...

GL
 
2nd Half :

over 93 Charlotte {2units}
Charlotte PK {1unit}
Raps -1.5 {2units}
Over 102 {3units}
Pacers -5.5 {3units}
Over 93.5 Philly {1unit}
 
im no longer expecting anything out of boston for the remainder of the season and unless they are getting a minimum of 7 pts from the other team im betting against them.

why did i bet a team who simply doesn't know how to win. ugh.
 
how many times a game is gonna go to OT when i have the under?

port char under 188.5:moose:
 
and see its the same shit public under again....funny crap happens in these spots and I had a feeling you were on OT. Only cause it got the OT moose
 
you said the same about Detriot-Cleveland under and that went under about 30points
 
brewers_fan said:
im no longer expecting anything out of boston for the remainder of the season and unless they are getting a minimum of 7 pts from the other team im betting against them.

why did i bet a team who simply doesn't know how to win. ugh.
Click to expand...

I'll be honest the whole Pierce situation sucked the value oout of the play IMO. Its a perception thing and I am sure alot more heads turn Boston way with the return of Pierce. I should have known better its the opposite of a team missins a star and rallying. Pierce did more damage then good at 2-13 in 15 minutes! Who knows if Boston actually relied him ...thankfully I poiunded the Under as well
 
thecakeoff said:
you said the same about Detriot-Cleveland under and that went under about 30points
Click to expand...

It wasnt a public under. The line went up not down....check it out. I thought it was public cause every single poster loved it.....as did I...refer to ATL / NJN...where the line dropped a few points
 
i was also on New Jersey-Boston under is that a plublic under too?
 
SportsNut when are you going to learn your lesson on Memphis even if some how cover tonight
 
thecakeoff said:
i was also on New Jersey-Boston under is that a plublic under too?
Click to expand...

Probably was not every public bet loses. See the problem understanding that its not so much the public backing its the public perception. There was so much value in the NJN number it could have probably been 181 not 191. The Char and Port one should have been 188....when I say public its not about public or sharps its all perception based...thats why I laid off the Blazer total and not the NJ...

I dont know why I do it to myself with memphis....they paid huge for me with Dallas though....should have went 1st H MEM my bad..
 
I should have known better its the opposite of a team missins a star and rallying.

can you explain more on what you mean here? i think what you were trying to say was that when a star returns it actually hurts a team more than it helps but the public believes it will help and, therefore, the line is not accurate to what it truly should be. is that at all close?
 
I totally believe the words you just said Brewers. I would say more times than naught that is the case.

He put up a lot of shots for having missed 2 mos. If he would have been in post creatiung opp's for his teammates then maybe he could have helped.
 
7PM:
Spurs 1st Half -3.5 {2units} +2.00
Pacers -7 -115 {2units} -2.30
Under 205 Ind {2units} +2.00
Over 204.5 Lakers {4units} -4.40
Sixers +1 {2units} PUSH
Celtics +5 {4units} ML +180 {unit} -5.40
Under 191 Boston {4units} +4.00
1st H Boston +2.5 {unit} -1.10
1st H Under 91 {2units} +2.00

Net -3.20
 
Not so much with the line itself. Thought it was adjusted a pt for his return it seems. When a star goes down a team rallies or rises up in the short term to overcome that missing player. So here they are doing the opposite relying on a guy who is out of shape , hasnt praticed and is limited because of the name on his jersey. We are rational and dont expect much from Pierce but the whole perception of the situation changes with him in there. To me everything is based on perception. Thats why they say its easier to do something when the pressure is off...things of that nature. Perception is everything IMO....how many people THOUGHT StPeters quit on the season and buried Niagara tonite?? Matter of perception...always seems to be wrong
 
i guess i had it completely backwards. i paid for it, but, also, got taught a very good lesson. thanks SN.
 
you are stupid GSW game wont go under for first half and game
 
2nd Half : (+0.30)

over 93 Charlotte {4units} +4.00
Charlotte PK {1unit} -1.10
Raps -1.5 {3units}-3.30 (won by 1)
Over 102 {3units} +3.00
Pacers -5.5 {3units}-3.30
Over 93.5 Philly {1unit} +1.00
Over 100.5 Suns {2units}

8PM(Net -1.00)
Grizzlies +2 {3units} +3.00
Over 107 1st H {2units} -2.20
Over 213.5 Mem {4units} -4.40
Cavs -2 {2units} +2.00
Under 192 Miami{5units} +5.00
Under 96.5 1st H {1unit} +1.00
Hawks +11.5 {3units} +10.5 {2units} ML +520 {1/2unit}PENDING
Over 99.5 1st Half {2units} -2.20
Over 185 Houston {3units} -3.30
Houston +4 1st Half {2units} PUSH
 
Dumb play. I thought I noticed a pattern with CHI on backends. Praying for 110 or less at half. If that have a legit shot..how bout them HAWKS though...ML...shhhh
 
nice ML hit on hawks nut


i pounded that suns total at half.....LARGE

i was praying for under 100 at half, once i got it...i had no doubt the track meet was on for the 2nd half
 
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