2.4

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Kinda of a SHITTY Saturday. Seems I spent to much time looking at CBB. Had some good ideas but they didnt pay off cause I didnt implement them.

Getting a head start on the card. Have my ideas in place and just wakeup and go at it.

Hawk +7 {6units} some ML as well. You have to entertain a und 191 when NJ just allowed 119 and the low scoring Hawks come to town.

Basically we have this...I said it a few days ago that NJ finally won over the public after Vince's buzzer beater in Utah. For along while NJ was playing well above there talent. The peak IMO was the Utah game and have been saying they will crash hard now. Well last 2 games they have been smoked. Funny part is cause of that hot streak which few rode the 'public' and I mean betting public only will continue to play them based on that run rather then on recent performance.

Last 5 away Hawks are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. Winning in Orlando and Minny. They are 7-5 SU past 12. HAwks have covered the past 4 and the games have been all fairly close. I expect another 1 possession win here now that ATL is healthy.

"We have to quickly return to who we want to be, and that has to be a possession oriented team the defensively does a much better job." reiterated coach Frank. "If you don't come to play every single night, you're going to get beat."

What I found funny is that NJ has only been 7 or more favs 6 times going 3-3. They have lost SU to Charlotte , Boston and Portland as 7,8 or 9 pt chalk. They defeated Tor and Mem as 7 pt favs but the Raps was the opener and Milw as 7.5 pt chalk.

I think the travel schedule of Jan and the injuries began to catch up with them. It spent the entire month traveling. Literally NJ did not play consecutive home games all month. Thats mean they really traveled for every game. If they played home they were coming back from somewhere and then going somewhere new.They have played 16 times since Jan 5th!! They are flat at the moment and I dont foresee that changing...

In the other Noon start the Clips travel to Toronto for that Sunday afternoon special. Little odd that it seems like they are begging you or giving us Tor so cheap. They are 15-7 at home and LAC is 7-14 away. Clipps finally got there shit together and have gone 7-1 including 2-0 away but that was Sea and Bos. Seems very odd to me...The under is enticing but the Raps on Sunday tend to play over believe 22 of past 30 Sundays...Problem with an under is Raps went Under for so long and no have 2 consecutive overs...could mean an over run.....

Thinking Under in the Pistons @ Cavs matchup. Series history indicates low scoring and this should be a close game. Basically I am not sold on either team cause Pistons lost home and home to Wiz. They needed OT to win in Minny and even had Milw hang around with them. This is an inconsistent Cavs team but its still 17-6 at home. I think LeBron is fine. They played back to back and blew Char out yet he managed nearly 36 minutes...there was no reason for him to be in there so he must be okay. Thinking about the home squad....
 
under in the stons/cavs matchup looks solid.

line for the Raps is climbing, may just put a small play on Raps 1H @ -2, still think it will be a close one in the end though, it may just fall in the 3-4 range.
 
Thanks all . Good Luck today.

So far..
Atlanta Hawks +7 {6units} ML +240 {1/2unit}

Thats all for now staying away from NJ and Cle Unders cause I hate public unders...Still looking at the rest
 
Damn I feel like shit missing the Raps 1st H and 1st H over! Passing on ATL under as well.....uhhhh
 
im so pissed..i was out and missed out on hawks play +7 and that under 1st H play...early starts for those slow down teams would be money

:(
 
Sucks.....had 3 wins in the 1st H and played none...ATL +3.5 , Tor -2 and Ov 99...which I only wanted to play cause it was shade so damn high..

Go Hawks!
 
Would only entertain LAC.... like ATL but just +3.5 for the game is marginal...not sure about either total would guess NJ over...
 
Freaking OT!!!

Do like Cavs -1 1st H but since I havent played any I wont touch this one.

add:
Over 184 Pistons {2units}

> I know all about recent series history. Pistons 8-1 Over last 9 away for Det...and Cavs topped 100 5 of 6....
 
Thank You Tyronne Lue! Feels good to be right about a game again. Damn do I feel smart for not playing the Under now! Public unders will BURN You!!!! Why? They nvere have value. The books know what to expct from a game and what perception will be and they shade the line accordingly. The public is clueless in understanding what a line should be and just bets it down anyway.....hoepfully this holds true in Det as well....

Alright all I am out to enjoy the SUPER BOWL! So happy ATL won and SU!

I really have no clue who I like in the Cavs game only that I would have taken Cavs -1 1st H and if they were down 6 or so I would probably roll Cavs 2nd H!
 
Thank You Tyronne Lue! Feels good to be right about a game again. Damn do I feel smart for not playing the Under now! Public unders will BURN You!!!! Why? They nvere have value. The books know what to expct from a game and what perception will be and they shade the line accordingly. The public is clueless in understanding what a line should be and just bets it down anyway.....hoepfully this holds true in Det as well....

Alright all I am out to enjoy the SUPER BOWL! So happy ATL won and SU!

I really have no clue who I like in the Cavs game only that I would have taken Cavs -1 1st H and if they were down 6 or so I would probably roll Cavs 2nd H!

:shake:
 
Thank You Tyronne Lue! Feels good to be right about a game again. Damn do I feel smart for not playing the Under now! Public unders will BURN You!!!! Why? They nvere have value. The books know what to expct from a game and what perception will be and they shade the line accordingly. The public is clueless in understanding what a line should be and just bets it down anyway.....hoepfully this holds true in Det as well....

Alright all I am out to enjoy the SUPER BOWL! So happy ATL won and SU!

I really have no clue who I like in the Cavs game only that I would have taken Cavs -1 1st H and if they were down 6 or so I would probably roll Cavs 2nd H!
did the books know the game was going go into OT?
 
No such things as traps. Like it said its cause the betting public doesnt understand what a LINE should be. They just bet according to high scoring or low scoring and disregard the line. When I say PUBLIC I mean the entire betting public. Not the whole public vs sharp thingy...

See I know that a person who is truly sharp would never bet that undercause it has no value at 190.....sharps bet bad numbers...

My point is when a good number gets bet higher or lower and perception is incorrect then its best to stay away....your not betting value...your betting perception....okay...
 
No such things as traps. Like it said its cause the betting public doesnt understand what a LINE should be. They just bet according to high scoring or low scoring and disregard the line. When I say PUBLIC I mean the entire betting public. Not the whole public vs sharp thingy...

See I know that a person who is truly sharp would never bet that undercause it has no value at 190.....sharps bet bad numbers...

My point is when a good number gets bet higher or lower and perception is incorrect then its best to stay away....your not betting value...your betting perception....okay...
so theres no value with a 191 under when the game is 86-84 wit 10secs left?
 
cake ...its more about destiny. The game is either finding a way to go over or go under. Obviously no one knows. They didnt set a trap and that the misconception. Uninformed bettors set the so called trap.

I dont know you well but I try to explain to guys. That market percpetion is always wrong. Doesnt matter the market its always incoprrect when it forms an opinion......Housing market...its to high its gonna drop...nope kept going higher , tech stocks are easy money....nope , Oil is gonna hit a 100 in 2 months....nope....once a market has a clear opinion get out!!!

Gotta run....thats my market theory comments.....anyone down Wall Street will tell ya when the front of magazine says buy this or but that SELL.....
 
Dude...no cause isnt the possibility of OT HIGHLY possible?? Your have to figure that into the equation. I tell you guys that you make to big of a deal what happens during a game...the only thing that matters is the final...all right bets win or wrong bets lose.....did Lue get lucky or was ATL simply the right play and meantto win?

I 'll go with the belief that ATL was the right play and they would find a way to make it happen. If they were the wrong play they would have folded in OT....I gotta go your killing me cake!
 
I am not saying the under was a bad play. I am saying it didnt have value in far of terms of cheap or expensive. Your basically straight up gambling. Whne that happens you temd to lose...trust me....see my Under in the Suns and NYK....I gambled and lost....number was correct and it missed by 1 pt....the unspeakable shit that looks like BS will always happen in these games......how bout them Pats last week...
 
fine is there no value with the score being 82-75 with 3:23 left in the game having a under 191?
 
Your still saying its highly improbable the game doesnt go to OT...what's 7 points in the 3 minutes....the game is how the story plays out NOT vice versa.....

Would I like to have the Under in that position? Yes. I also know OT is a strong possibility. So when it comes down to ATL not icing the game and NJ having a chance to tie . Well experience tells me that NJ will tie it....just like how I had the over in PHO last nite and Diaw missed 2 FT's to tie and send top OT. I would love to have the over with a guy shooting s FTs with 5 seconds to tie it......he didnt execute and it wasnt meant to go over plain and simple..
 
Your still saying its highly improbable the game doesnt go to OT...what's 7 points in the 3 minutes....the game is how the story plays out NOT vice versa.....

Would I like to have the Under in that position? Yes. I also know OT is a strong possibility. So when it comes down to ATL not icing the game and NJ having a chance to tie . Well experience tells me that NJ will tie it....just like how I had the over in PHO last nite and Diaw missed 2 FT's to tie and send top OT. I would love to have the over with a guy shooting s FTs with 5 seconds to tie it......he didnt execute and it wasnt meant to go over plain and simple..
yeah but the over in that game was the wrong side of the game the point is you needed OT to win
 
Just like the Suns playing SA the other nite. SPurs were the wrong bet regardless of what the score was with 6 minutes to play......thats how it works and thats why its useless to go crazy watching every second of every game...
 
Just like the Suns playing SA the other nite. SPurs were the wrong bet regardless of what the score was with 6 minutes to play......thats how it works and thats why its useless to go crazy watching every second of every game...
yes suns were the right side
 
Whne you bet a total you bet a score or outcome...some are decided in OT. I had the Red Storm under that game was low scoring all afternoon. They way CBB is though a close game is gonna have alot FTs late and this pushed it over.....I was well aware of that...So I dont say I got screwed cause the late FT's ...its the way the game played it...

I know the fucked feeling but shit happens...wide margins tend to not see much scoring late and close games have OT and / or FTs to worry about...

I am saying it was the wrong bet but it wasnt a line that was so high it gave you wiggle room.....really what did you expect the final to be?? Had to be low 90's worst case which is why I changed my mid on it and why I like the 2nd H over....if I ha dto guess a score it was 94-90....

I am leaving!!!!!!!1
 
hahaha so you are saying no matter what takes place if the wager loses or wins its the right bet so if you bet on a Over and it takes 2 OTs for you to get it still was the right bet?
that makes sense
 
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