2/4/07 NFL Super Bowl... Dont Believe tha hype

tru

Friend of CTG
how tha fuck did this line open colts -7? lets look at numbers an see why this line is off.

look back to week 12 bears @ pats. line opened at pats -3, basically sayin this game played on a neutral field would be around a pick. patriots won 17-13. now lets also move back to week 7, that undefeated monster known as tha colts hosted tha washington redskins. that line opened indy -9. colts won that game 36-22. also lets look back at week 2 texans @ colts. line opened at indy -14, an closed at indy -11.5. indianapolis went on to a dominting 43-24 win. afc championship game colts open as a 3 point favorite va tha new england patriots. indy showed great heart in that game to make a comeback bein down 21-3 before half, to win 38-34. week 9 colts @ pats, game closed as a pats -3 line, again basically sayin this game will be a pick on neutral field.


but lets try to add all this shit up now. if tha bears week 12 @ new england woulda been a pick, an afc championship game that game played on neutral field it woulda been a pick also. how do we come to this -7 number in for tha super bowl? week 7 is sayin on a neutral field colts woulda been a 6 point favorite to at that time a 2-4 washington redskins? jus by lookin at how tha lines were set bears/pats, colts/pats, pats/colts. we should come to a colts at most -3 in this spot.

stats alone this bears O isnt that much behind indys O as many would think. bears averaged about 1 point per game more than indy did this season on O, an gained about 50 less yards per game. defense wise only edge indy has is total pass yards per game. bears give up 1.2 LESS yards per rush than indy does, also give up a half yard LESS per passing attempt. bears also allow about 5 points less per game on D.

on tha final note lets look how indy has done away from they home dome. 8 away games regular season 4 games played on natural surface.

week 8 @ denver won 34-31
week 9 @ new england won 27-20
week 13 @ tenny lost 20-17
week 14 @ jags lost 44-17

remove them off tha turf an as u can see from tha tenny an jags loss they arent on they best. they avg 23.75 points for per game, but give up 28.75 points on natural surfaces this season.

they always say defense wins championships in any sport, this bears team is hungry in tha dog spot an will leave everything on tha field. will be updatin later wit tha line i get an a few props i might be hittin
 
heh normally not tha writeup type, but normally always got a good reason behind a pick unless its jus a straight fade. i jus feel this shit is too inflated. this comes down to vegas knowin how much niggas love manning an that O, to how much alot of people dislike rex. straight up overlay here, an i jus hope it cashes
 
thanks SS good luck tonight, i really think tha bears can take it outright.

troy, good health, i mean this can go anyway. its still gamblin know what im sayin? its jus i cant see layin tha points in this spot is tha correct siode to be on.

cruzer no fuckin doubt, get money
 
how bout a prop or 2

Total rushing yards made by Indianapolis Colts
Under 115.5 -115 2 units


Player to win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI MVP
Peyton Manning +100 2 units
Thomas Jones +1000 2 units

basically hedgin i think if bears win its done on tha ground an jones gets it wit a big game. if colts win manning gets it.
 
thanks mike, lookin at a few other props im gonna hit, really like tha indy under rushin tha best of all though.
 
aight lockin in tha side, this is 2.5 times larger than a normal play for me. 3rd time ive went this big. texas 2006 championship an seattle las super bowl. im 3-1 ats sides an 1-0 totals in tha 4 years ive bet tha bowl. hope bears can pull it out. im waitin for a better number on tha ML, hittin it later.

Chicago Bears +7 -110 10 units
 
colts most turnovers is a good value bet in my opinion. bears turnover diff is +13 to colts +7. i will take + money at almost a 2 to 1 edge every day
 
looks like las few bets

Alt line
Chicago Bears -3.5 +280 1 unit

Total rushing yards made by Chicago Bears
Over 120.5 rushing yrds 2 units
 
gl Tru as you know I agree with your pick.

I think the Bears are not getting very much respect here. If they can run the ball effectively and don't turn it over they will win this game.
 
gl Tru as you know I agree with your pick.

I think the Bears are not getting very much respect here. If they can run the ball effectively and don't turn it over they will win this game.

no respect is right. i feel bears will be able to run on this colts team an rexy should have a decent day in tha air. i guess we will see how shit works out but i feel bears side is tha right side. good luck tonight lets see bears outright, hope u hit ur parlay an hope u hedge to lock in a profit regardless of how this shit ends.
 
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