I cannot express the disgust I had last nite. The amount of plays I lose by 1 or 2 points is humbling. The difference bewteen 75% and 55% is minute in my case...I believe I lost a good 5 maybe 6 plays by 1 or 2 pts yesterday alone....So to try and keep this from happening I am making changes. I need to find a system to maximize my potential...so trying more 1 unit plays and working up from the bottom instead of maybe working down from the top. I lose Miami and Memphis in the closing seconds. Talk about pain Crawford hits an akward 3 with less then a minute to push it to 4 (lose by 6) and is now out for the SEASON!! The Grizz you figure can force OT , maybe extend the game so the over hits or even win it....they go ice cold last 3 minutes and lose by 4 and just miss the over.....the Bulls 2nd H sees a 5 minute cold spurt with a few missed late layups and the total misses by 2 pts.....do I need to even talk about how Ov 100.5 LAC didnt hit with 55 at half ending on a 100 and Char und 92 lost on 93 (51 in the 2nd H) when they scored about 5 pts last 15 seconds....its not so bad luck as playing marginal plays for more then they are worth...the end of Pinnacle has cut into my creativity and I have to change I guess....
Okay now that I feel better...
Under 194.5 Dallas @ Minnesota {6units}
The first glaring reason is Dallas being 9-1 UNDER on B2B's. Beyond thats it the 96 for and 84 against avgs in these 10 situations to date. The Wolves have been an over team at home this season but that is largely due to past reputation that had many totals set well below this threshold. Past series history shows 8 of 10 have played UNDER and this total is the highest level set in nearly seasons. So now we find out that Howard is probably OUT on top of injuries to George and Buckner. Shorthanded on a B2B even with bench players like Stackhouse and Croshere and a series where the DOG is 18-5 last 23 IMO puts some nice value on the home doggie.
Nets -5 {5units}
Vince is playing insane basketball and NJ is playing okay of late. Wash has proven to be not the best of road teams this season even worse with the injuries. I am still trying to figure out how Minny failed to cover on Sunday (another of my 1 pt losses) when Arenas was 4-22 & Hayes / Blatche combined for 4-20...a team with no bench to begin with had 3 starters combine for 8-42 from the floor!! Now Butler still is a gametime decision and I am gambling he doesnt play. Arenas has that bum shoulder still and u would think 4 / 22 is indicative of what he is feeling. Although AJ returned to pratice he has been ruled out as far as I know. Something seems out of whack about a 206.5 total even with NJ playing no defense lately....
Over 111.5 Suns team -115 {3units} OFF this for now total is sinking
They have scored at least 115 since Nash returned. Last year in Indy the Suns scored 114. The Pacers just allowed 110 to Sacramento , 110 @ Tor , 129 in OT vs Mil , and 8 of 9 above 100 pts...
Also looking at over 216 or 1st Half over....Home doggies as well...6/6.5 @ Indy seems high...especially Home and Home matchup....
Hornets +6 -115 {3units} ML +205 {1/4 unit} 1st H +3 {1unit}
Not crazy about Cle's offense of late which makes me think sthis stays close. the Cavs have been brutal from the FT line so that further aide a dog play here. What I did like was Cle only 4-12 when being outrebounded vs NO thats a possibility. Also cavs are 1-11 when shooting less then 40%...thats very unlikely IMO but the counter is NO 4-21 when trailing at half...basicaly expecting a tight game throughout with NO benefited from some extra rest and Cle the opposite playing some tough games.....
BOL:cheers:
Okay now that I feel better...
Under 194.5 Dallas @ Minnesota {6units}
The first glaring reason is Dallas being 9-1 UNDER on B2B's. Beyond thats it the 96 for and 84 against avgs in these 10 situations to date. The Wolves have been an over team at home this season but that is largely due to past reputation that had many totals set well below this threshold. Past series history shows 8 of 10 have played UNDER and this total is the highest level set in nearly seasons. So now we find out that Howard is probably OUT on top of injuries to George and Buckner. Shorthanded on a B2B even with bench players like Stackhouse and Croshere and a series where the DOG is 18-5 last 23 IMO puts some nice value on the home doggie.
Nets -5 {5units}
Vince is playing insane basketball and NJ is playing okay of late. Wash has proven to be not the best of road teams this season even worse with the injuries. I am still trying to figure out how Minny failed to cover on Sunday (another of my 1 pt losses) when Arenas was 4-22 & Hayes / Blatche combined for 4-20...a team with no bench to begin with had 3 starters combine for 8-42 from the floor!! Now Butler still is a gametime decision and I am gambling he doesnt play. Arenas has that bum shoulder still and u would think 4 / 22 is indicative of what he is feeling. Although AJ returned to pratice he has been ruled out as far as I know. Something seems out of whack about a 206.5 total even with NJ playing no defense lately....
Over 111.5 Suns team -115 {3units} OFF this for now total is sinking
They have scored at least 115 since Nash returned. Last year in Indy the Suns scored 114. The Pacers just allowed 110 to Sacramento , 110 @ Tor , 129 in OT vs Mil , and 8 of 9 above 100 pts...
Also looking at over 216 or 1st Half over....Home doggies as well...6/6.5 @ Indy seems high...especially Home and Home matchup....
Hornets +6 -115 {3units} ML +205 {1/4 unit} 1st H +3 {1unit}
Not crazy about Cle's offense of late which makes me think sthis stays close. the Cavs have been brutal from the FT line so that further aide a dog play here. What I did like was Cle only 4-12 when being outrebounded vs NO thats a possibility. Also cavs are 1-11 when shooting less then 40%...thats very unlikely IMO but the counter is NO 4-21 when trailing at half...basicaly expecting a tight game throughout with NO benefited from some extra rest and Cle the opposite playing some tough games.....
BOL:cheers:
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