Solid start on day 1. I played Cle full well knowing the line was 2 points to high. Not suprisingly it lost ( silly play) but I had the under right. As we learned Gary Payton @ the PG spot leans towards unders. I was glad to see even Magic Johnson noticed that during halftime. Williams is the pace of the offense and w/o him it takes away from Wade and slows them down as Payton is not running the ball up the court like he is(or pooping threes). Having Shaq furthers slows things down. Check Paytons games where he played 24+minutes. Luckily we had some value at halftime. With the late game it was interesting did mostly good and some bad. Every since Pinnacle went bye-bye I have sucked for the most part of 1st H's so no suprise that SA who played last nite rather the Suns off 2 days rest started fast. Had the pace of the game correct except that 6 minute span to start the 2nd scared me into shaving some of my under game play. I was a pussy. It so setup for an over chase by the avg bettor. The Suns were cheap at the half so I pounded them further based on the expectation that I didnt think they could do better then lose by4 and we had them @ -2.5 game.....
Over 211 Philly {6units} -6.60
Over 107.5 1st Half Philly{3units} -3.30
Where does one start with GS? How bout last 5 games they have allowed on avg 62 pts by halftime and 112 for the game(neary 114 away for the season). While shooting and allowing 47 %. The problem with them has been 1 area largely. Three point shooting. They cant hit a three for there life 24% on 19 shots(recent) while allowing 41% on 23 shots. Enter Kyle Korver! They have also gone to the line 36 times and allowed 34 attempts. Philly isnt doing much different scoring and allowing 98 per recently. On the road GS has allowed 48 % FG this season. Recent away games 115 , 124 , 115 , 108 , 128 , 144 , 119 and New Orleans shorthanded had only 89 ! Its safe to say any decent sort of offense nite should produce 110 pts for Philly. In fact only NO twice and Boston with 95 failed to break 104 on GS. I think eleven times allowing 110 or better and 6 of those were 120 or better. Last matchup was 116-97 in GS for the home team. With GS constant struggles it hard to not like Philly here.....
Over 199 Lakers {4units} -4.40
Somewhat similiar arguement here. The Lakers idea of good defense is seeing there opponent score only 98. They allow 105 on the road and score 102. Pacers are playing solid ball but I think this game should be closer to a PK. So might entertain LAL.
Under 193 Boston {4units}+4.00
LAC struggles somewhat offensively on the road. A good showing is in the 95 pt range. The Clipps now playing better smoked Seattle last time out and have handled Boston the last 2meetings. I think Boston tops out at 90 here and LAC will struggle to get to let alone crack 100. For anyone thinking LAC is high check the last meeting in Boston. They were -3.5 and cruised when Pierce played. Its tricky fading the Celts at this point but the Clippers are fairly eaqual to the Lakers in terms of line value. So the spread seems correct....
Cavs -7 {3units} as a hedge Bobcats ML +260 {1unit}+2.00
1st H -4 Cavs {1.5units} +1.50
After the recent slide by Cle they have undershaded Cle here in my opinion and everyone will be looking to ride Charlotte. The Bobcats are GIANT killers no doubt with 11ATS wins on the road and 8 SU(think all +5.5 or higher)! However I dont like the spot. Cleveland will come out strong after fading down the stretch last nite. I had this game at -8.
Cleveland knows full well about Charlotte as they have given them trouble twice no the books took the value out of Char. Bobcats pull some upsets but they also have been undervalued. Think about 5.5 in ATL , 9 in GS , above 10 in LAL and Den. Hard pressed for me to believe that Den and LAL are significantly better then Cle. You have tolove how Gibson has stepped in. I will be cautious about playing the Cavs side incase James is a late scratch. Let see if the LeBron inury pays dividens in the sense that thguys who filled in played well and got into the flow...will it continue. Even though Char is rested theyhave hardly any bench. Adam Morrison who does play better away , Jake the Snake Voskuhl and Jeff McInnis. The latter two have been widly inconsistent..
Hawks +110 {3units}-3.00
Both teams playing better but ATL getting no respect. Also like fading Tor due to the perception Ford is back and they did shoot only 59.3 at home vs Wash...
For as much as ATL has struggled injuries have destroyed them. Lue doesnt get much press but they are 1 game below 500 when he plays. Now with Childress , Josh Smith and Marvin Williams back they are healthy. ATL has taken 2 of three this year and I had this line at -1.5. So simply a value play. ATL 7-4 SU last 11. Total is unbelievable low so low its scary.....
Underdog is 9-1 ATS past in Wolves series. Have this at a PK so lean Wolves with Paul working his way back into the mix.....
Over 192.5 Pistons {2units} Ov 194 {2units}
Bucks cant defend and Det although they have opening nite revenge will be disinterested with game @ Cle on deck. I think everything about these numbers smells of the books telling you FLAT spot here for Det. Pistons off abig win in NJ travel to Cle on Super Bowl Sunday. The Bucks have just been embarrassed by everyone lately including Miami and Orlando. Pistons on offense can choose a number. Worst case is they score 98 best case 110. You can see the Pistons offense evolving 28 dines last game everyone getting involved and getting to the Line....Hell Rasheed was 0-7 and they managed 113.
Magic -3{4units}+4.00
Under 186.5 Orl {2units}-2.20
Magic -1.5 {2units} 1st Half+2.00
Simply continuining my NJ fade. I contend they played over there head for a strecth and now will come back down to Earth...crashing back.
Dont make much of Grant Hill the role player being out. The 3 keys to Orl are Dwight Howard , Turkoglu and Nelson. If you dont believe me well they are 5-1 SU when Hill sits and 4-1-1 ATS. They played teh last meeting in NJ w/o Hill and that was thee loss. Look for Diener and Reddick to see more time. Basically if you watched the game in NJ you saw a tale of two halves. Magic up 10 or 12 at half and NJ outscoring them by 17 or 19 in the 2nd H. Had this line @-3.5 and lets not forget about NJ away struggles. I think Howard gets his revenge from last meeting as they really dont have anyone to neutralie him that game was jsut one of those days
"A win like this helps your mental health a great deal and that goes for everybody, players and coaches alike," Magic coach Brian Hill said. "You can relax a little more and it makes coming to the gym a lot easier"
The Nets have played like 5 straight overs and the last meeting we saw a 180 total...nows its 186.5 in ORL......UNDER
Over 199 Portland {3units}not sure why it crashed
Not a big advocate of playing Port away but I had this at closer to 8 or 8.5. Unless AI plays. Have this worst case 200 pts 105-95 . You saw the 2nd H open up in Portland the other nite. I dont think its hard to believe Denver is going to be around that 110 mark at home especailly off a few losses. Outside of Houston the Blazers have shown they can score on the road now that Roy is healthy again and they should add Outlaw tonite
GL
Over 211 Philly {6units} -6.60
Over 107.5 1st Half Philly{3units} -3.30
Where does one start with GS? How bout last 5 games they have allowed on avg 62 pts by halftime and 112 for the game(neary 114 away for the season). While shooting and allowing 47 %. The problem with them has been 1 area largely. Three point shooting. They cant hit a three for there life 24% on 19 shots(recent) while allowing 41% on 23 shots. Enter Kyle Korver! They have also gone to the line 36 times and allowed 34 attempts. Philly isnt doing much different scoring and allowing 98 per recently. On the road GS has allowed 48 % FG this season. Recent away games 115 , 124 , 115 , 108 , 128 , 144 , 119 and New Orleans shorthanded had only 89 ! Its safe to say any decent sort of offense nite should produce 110 pts for Philly. In fact only NO twice and Boston with 95 failed to break 104 on GS. I think eleven times allowing 110 or better and 6 of those were 120 or better. Last matchup was 116-97 in GS for the home team. With GS constant struggles it hard to not like Philly here.....
Over 199 Lakers {4units} -4.40
Somewhat similiar arguement here. The Lakers idea of good defense is seeing there opponent score only 98. They allow 105 on the road and score 102. Pacers are playing solid ball but I think this game should be closer to a PK. So might entertain LAL.
Under 193 Boston {4units}+4.00
LAC struggles somewhat offensively on the road. A good showing is in the 95 pt range. The Clipps now playing better smoked Seattle last time out and have handled Boston the last 2meetings. I think Boston tops out at 90 here and LAC will struggle to get to let alone crack 100. For anyone thinking LAC is high check the last meeting in Boston. They were -3.5 and cruised when Pierce played. Its tricky fading the Celts at this point but the Clippers are fairly eaqual to the Lakers in terms of line value. So the spread seems correct....
Cavs -7 {3units} as a hedge Bobcats ML +260 {1unit}+2.00
1st H -4 Cavs {1.5units} +1.50
After the recent slide by Cle they have undershaded Cle here in my opinion and everyone will be looking to ride Charlotte. The Bobcats are GIANT killers no doubt with 11ATS wins on the road and 8 SU(think all +5.5 or higher)! However I dont like the spot. Cleveland will come out strong after fading down the stretch last nite. I had this game at -8.
Cleveland knows full well about Charlotte as they have given them trouble twice no the books took the value out of Char. Bobcats pull some upsets but they also have been undervalued. Think about 5.5 in ATL , 9 in GS , above 10 in LAL and Den. Hard pressed for me to believe that Den and LAL are significantly better then Cle. You have tolove how Gibson has stepped in. I will be cautious about playing the Cavs side incase James is a late scratch. Let see if the LeBron inury pays dividens in the sense that thguys who filled in played well and got into the flow...will it continue. Even though Char is rested theyhave hardly any bench. Adam Morrison who does play better away , Jake the Snake Voskuhl and Jeff McInnis. The latter two have been widly inconsistent..
Hawks +110 {3units}-3.00
Both teams playing better but ATL getting no respect. Also like fading Tor due to the perception Ford is back and they did shoot only 59.3 at home vs Wash...
For as much as ATL has struggled injuries have destroyed them. Lue doesnt get much press but they are 1 game below 500 when he plays. Now with Childress , Josh Smith and Marvin Williams back they are healthy. ATL has taken 2 of three this year and I had this line at -1.5. So simply a value play. ATL 7-4 SU last 11. Total is unbelievable low so low its scary.....
Underdog is 9-1 ATS past in Wolves series. Have this at a PK so lean Wolves with Paul working his way back into the mix.....
Over 192.5 Pistons {2units} Ov 194 {2units}
Bucks cant defend and Det although they have opening nite revenge will be disinterested with game @ Cle on deck. I think everything about these numbers smells of the books telling you FLAT spot here for Det. Pistons off abig win in NJ travel to Cle on Super Bowl Sunday. The Bucks have just been embarrassed by everyone lately including Miami and Orlando. Pistons on offense can choose a number. Worst case is they score 98 best case 110. You can see the Pistons offense evolving 28 dines last game everyone getting involved and getting to the Line....Hell Rasheed was 0-7 and they managed 113.
Magic -3{4units}+4.00
Under 186.5 Orl {2units}-2.20
Magic -1.5 {2units} 1st Half+2.00
Simply continuining my NJ fade. I contend they played over there head for a strecth and now will come back down to Earth...crashing back.
Dont make much of Grant Hill the role player being out. The 3 keys to Orl are Dwight Howard , Turkoglu and Nelson. If you dont believe me well they are 5-1 SU when Hill sits and 4-1-1 ATS. They played teh last meeting in NJ w/o Hill and that was thee loss. Look for Diener and Reddick to see more time. Basically if you watched the game in NJ you saw a tale of two halves. Magic up 10 or 12 at half and NJ outscoring them by 17 or 19 in the 2nd H. Had this line @-3.5 and lets not forget about NJ away struggles. I think Howard gets his revenge from last meeting as they really dont have anyone to neutralie him that game was jsut one of those days
"A win like this helps your mental health a great deal and that goes for everybody, players and coaches alike," Magic coach Brian Hill said. "You can relax a little more and it makes coming to the gym a lot easier"
The Nets have played like 5 straight overs and the last meeting we saw a 180 total...nows its 186.5 in ORL......UNDER
Over 199 Portland {3units}not sure why it crashed
Not a big advocate of playing Port away but I had this at closer to 8 or 8.5. Unless AI plays. Have this worst case 200 pts 105-95 . You saw the 2nd H open up in Portland the other nite. I dont think its hard to believe Denver is going to be around that 110 mark at home especailly off a few losses. Outside of Houston the Blazers have shown they can score on the road now that Roy is healthy again and they should add Outlaw tonite
GL
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