BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Its been my pattern for a number of seasons now to look for specific match-ups when it comes to teams final games before the All Star break. The qualifying criteria has been
(1) Look to play a home team (venue energy),
(2) That is the favourite (slash, the better team),
(3) That is in with a chance to make the post season (motivation),
(4) That is playing an opponent (ideally) on a road trip (hence will be their final game of that trip before the break)
(5) And that that opponent has no realistic chance of making the post season (ultimately, a meaningless contest).
Over the last 4 seasons, teams* in these circumstances are 7-2-1 ATS**. When their opponent isn't ending a road trip, but rather is playing off a home game themselves, then match-ups which otherwise match the rest of these circumstances are 2-0 ATS to the Fav.
So excepting rule 4, the overall numbers for the Fav/home team in these circumstances are 9-2-1 ATS.
*who ended up making the post season
**There was a game between Seattle & G.State that fitted these guidelines, but that was when GDS had just aquired Baron Davis, and went on their massive ATS streak in the 2nd half of that season. From my perspective, they were motivated to perform irrespective of circumstances (the biggest one, namely, being their season was dead before their run even started, since the playoffs were never a possibility). That motivation to perform even thou their playoff hopes were dead nullifies rule 5 here, hence the non-inclusion of that result.
Today there are 4 games which fit
Memphis @Indiana ............- Indiana pushed* 9-2-2
Portland @Orlando ............- Orlando covered 10-2-2
Atlanta @Los Angeles ........- Atlanta covered 10-3-2
New York @Golden State** - G.State covered 11-3-2
*opening lines
**I dont know why I overlooked this game, since GDS is in with a real chance of making the post season, while New York - given the teams ahead of them - is not.
Given Memphis started 6-3-1 ATS in their remaining December games when Gasol first rejoined that team, but has - from Jan 1st - since gone 7-14 ATS (1-6 ATS in road games), I'm starting today with a small bet (only because their recent home form has been suspect) on Indiana -9
(1) Look to play a home team (venue energy),
(2) That is the favourite (slash, the better team),
(3) That is in with a chance to make the post season (motivation),
(4) That is playing an opponent (ideally) on a road trip (hence will be their final game of that trip before the break)
(5) And that that opponent has no realistic chance of making the post season (ultimately, a meaningless contest).
Over the last 4 seasons, teams* in these circumstances are 7-2-1 ATS**. When their opponent isn't ending a road trip, but rather is playing off a home game themselves, then match-ups which otherwise match the rest of these circumstances are 2-0 ATS to the Fav.
So excepting rule 4, the overall numbers for the Fav/home team in these circumstances are 9-2-1 ATS.
*who ended up making the post season
**There was a game between Seattle & G.State that fitted these guidelines, but that was when GDS had just aquired Baron Davis, and went on their massive ATS streak in the 2nd half of that season. From my perspective, they were motivated to perform irrespective of circumstances (the biggest one, namely, being their season was dead before their run even started, since the playoffs were never a possibility). That motivation to perform even thou their playoff hopes were dead nullifies rule 5 here, hence the non-inclusion of that result.
Today there are 4 games which fit
Memphis @Indiana ............- Indiana pushed* 9-2-2
Portland @Orlando ............- Orlando covered 10-2-2
Atlanta @Los Angeles ........- Atlanta covered 10-3-2
New York @Golden State** - G.State covered 11-3-2
*opening lines
**I dont know why I overlooked this game, since GDS is in with a real chance of making the post season, while New York - given the teams ahead of them - is not.
Given Memphis started 6-3-1 ATS in their remaining December games when Gasol first rejoined that team, but has - from Jan 1st - since gone 7-14 ATS (1-6 ATS in road games), I'm starting today with a small bet (only because their recent home form has been suspect) on Indiana -9
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