2-13 Pre All-Star Break criteria

[BetCrimes1984]

Its been my pattern for a number of seasons now to look for specific match-ups when it comes to teams final games before the All Star break. The guidelines for a play are

(1) Each team is playing its final game before the AS break
(2) Look to play a home team (venue energy),
(3) ...that is the favourite (slash, the better team),
(4) ...that is in with a chance to make the post season (motivation),
(5) ...and that that opponent has no realistic chance of making the post season (ultimately, a meaningless contest).

Over the last 5 seasons, teams* are 11-3-2 ATS+** in these circumstances.

*who ended up making the post season

+based on opening lines

**There was a game between Seattle & G.State that fitted these guidelines, but that was when GDS had just aquired Baron Davis, and went on their massive ATS streak in the 2nd half of that season. From my perspective, they were motivated to perform irrespective of circumstances (the biggest one, namely, being their season was dead before their run even started, since the playoffs were never a possibility). That motivation to perform even thou their playoff hopes were dead nullifies rule 5 here, hence the non-inclusion of that result.


This season, there are 2 games which fit

New York @Boston
Memphis @Philadelphia (Philly only .5 a game out from an 8th playoff spot)

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At the moment I've not decided on playing either, need today's results in the books (as both BOS & MEM are playing) plus the lines to begin that process in earnest, but just putting these stats back out there.

 

[Joe Public]

One thing to think about, though it may not matter as much here, Phil Jackson openly threw games so he wouldn't have to coach in the all star game a couple of years ago.

If you have a coach who is quite obviously not interested in coaching in the thing and may have to, it's something to think about.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thats interesting Joe, because 1 of those 3 losses was the Lakers at home to Atlanta.

 

[smo1a]

Good shit as usual BC. Thanks

 

[aplous]

C's -9
Sixers -9


Do it.

 

[lifesallover]

Fuck, I loved Philly until I saw that -9. Memphis second game of a b2b, coming off a rare win.

BC, I know the Sixers are playing some of their best besketball all year right now, with a couple victories around 20 point margins (granted the competition was not good), what are your thoughts on the -9. Are you still playing it?

 

[spockgato]

if miller swallows his mouthguard early in the second quarter after an elbow from reggie evans than i like my chances .

but nine is steep . grizzles have the ability to mail it in in this game ?

is there turmoil around this team and in the lockeroom or are they in good spirits and happy about ownership's decisions ?
does anybody know ? anybody got a good beat on the local media there ?
miller's gonna get traded ?
philly's effort and confidence right now really shows promise in the " they're goin all in " ideas i have about the sixers . big but ugly win against dallas . they should find it easier offensively against memphis .

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The positive for the Philly game is obviously Memphis winning, and their horrendous record off a SU win (2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS - only road win vs New Jersey).
The negative is Philly's present home run ATS (5-0) and overall ATS run (6-0-1), capped by beating Dallas, has meant that number is definitely inflated.
I'll have to mull over this one. Philly is 1.0 game out from 7th/8th playoff spot, and I'm sure they'll know that.

just to add, the number (11-3-2 ATS) for these games comes from home teams who (eventually) made the post season, so if Philly fails ATS here and then doesnt make the post season, it doesnt get recorded here as a result. Whereas Boston is making the p.s., so their result vs NYK without question will apply.

 

[iceman5691]

This opens up for a very very chalky Wednesday.
Boston -9
Philladelphia -9
Oh well how can you go aganist BC ?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

iceman - whether I play either or not (and I dont like NYK have decent rest vs Boston B2B), at least I wouldn't take the otherside based on the stats I've collected to date.

 

[lifesallover]

According to wagerline, about 61% on memphis, and yet the line went up to 9.5.:4_12_12:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I've passed on both. Only the rest situations for each team in the Boston game put me off that one.

 

[lifesallover]

Likewise. Both of them are looking good right now, still early, but Philly up 13 and Boston up 20. Looks like you were right on, books must be tracking you BC

 

[aplous]

I've passed on both. Only the rest situations for each team in the Boston game put me off that one.

Bummer.

Philly wins easy and Boston is ass clowning the loser Knicks.

Thanks for the heads up!:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

the real bummer is Philly had to be putting up absurd ATS performances recently, otherwise that number would've been 6/7

 

[lifesallover]

the real bummer is Philly had to be putting up absurd ATS performances recently, otherwise that number would've been 6/7

Exactly. They've been rolling ATS lately, after I saw the weird line movement, I was so tempted to pull the trigger, but 9.5 is a lot to lay with a team like Philly. There are just certain teams you don't lay chalk with, and certain teams you don't lay large chalk with. It looks like Boston failed to cover though, so if you would've played both you woul've been juiced anyways. Good eye though on the trend:cheers:

 

[SF_capper]

Chicago was a play. no?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Sf capper - its debatable whether Chicago is in with a realistic shot at the post season, I left them out of being noted here because of their injuries (with a view of those long term likely killing their post season hopes). But in all other senses that game did pretty much fit the bill.