BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
My chases have gone especially well this season (5-0-1) with my only 'failure' being the instance where the first up bet lost (Denver -7.5 vs Jersey) but a significant injury prevented my seeing through the chase in Jersey's next game, so essentially that failure was simply a stand alone loss, as opposed to a real chase failure (which would be going 0-2).
My chase here involves looking for Atlanta to lose ATS in one of their final 2 road games prior to the All Star break. Their opponents are Utah tonight, and the LA Clippers in 2 days time.
The specifics - Atlanta tonight
- is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, on the road, thats doubles as a B2B game. They had 6 such games previously this season, and outside of facing Boston (during that team's horrendous present run of losses), they are 1-4 SU & ATS....
- ....in all these games (BOS incl.) Joe Johnson shoots 41.8% while averaging 19.0 points. In all other games this season he's shooting 48.1% while averaging 26.3 points - Just to note, in games this season where Johnson has scored less than 20 points, Atlanta is 1-10 SU & 0-11 ATS. JJ's average here is not what any ATL backers want to see.
- since falling below .500 for the last time this season, Atlanta has ended their rare multiple game winning streaks with losses by 21, 12 & 15 points (naturally 0-3 ATS) The only instance this season they've played a game on a 3rd in 4/B2B during any multi-game winning streak, was in recording that 15 point loss (a home game).
- Atlanta has lost their last 8 games SU & ATS to Utah, as the Dog.
Wider facts - Atlanta's remaining 2 games
- In games where Atlanta is the Dog this season, the team who has won SU is 35-4-1 ATS - the winner covers 90.0% of the time. Further, when Atlanta is off a SU win then plays as the Dog (as is the case tonight), the SU winner of their games is 15-1 ATS - the winner covers 93.7% of the time.
- The Dog is 15-3 ATS in Atlanta's last 18 games. This has been a stat correction for what preceded this period of Dog domination, which was a run by the Favourites to the tune of 14-5-1 ATS. As I pointed out in a chase from earlier this season (DET Fav result off a run of Dog results), stat correction runs usually end when they're pretty much in balance to the runs that preceded them....
.... adding together the present Dog run to the preceding Fav run, supplies the number 20-17-1 to the Dog: my expectation now, based on my experience of how these things *work*, is to start to expect another slide towards the Fav, sooner rather than later.
- Also in keeping with this, is the Home team vs Road team ATS situation for Atlanta's games. The road team started their season 11-6, adjustments were made so the pendulum then lurched to the home team 10-6-1. In their latest 16 games, the pendulum has swung back to the road team to the strong tune of 13-3. These runs total in length 17, 17 & the present 16 games - doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out the nature of this rhythm - in keeping with an expectation for Favs showing up for ATL's games (to whatever extent) is the matching expectation of a more balanced showing from the home team. I can only think of 1 team currently bucking these basic patterns I see for most teams, and thats the Celtics (with their games having a massive bias towards the road team covering at present).
Next, its been my pattern for a number of seasons now to look for specific match-ups when it comes to team's final games before the All Star break. The qualifying cirteria has been
(1) Look to play a home team (venue energy),
(2) That is the favourite (slash, the better team),
(3) That is in with a chance to make the post season (motivation),
(4) That is playing an opponent on a road trip (hence will be their final game of that trip before the break)
(5) And that that opponent has no realistic chance of making the post season (ultimately, a meaningless contest).
Unfortunately I lost the thread where I gathered the specific stats for games that applied to the above over recent seasons (posted at another site), but I do recall the ATS numbers being very very strong. Teams playing for nothing with a long awaited break before them at a venue where they get no energy, vs a team with everything to play for, is naturally a situation thats amenable to that home team coming out on top more often than not comfortably.
The criteria above will of course apply for Atlanta's visit to the Staples Center. Add in the Clips poor (road) form (in keeping with this, I'd love to see them murdered by 30, lol, tonight) to an Atlanta cover tonight, & I can see people falling over themselves to claim the points the Hawks will receive.
Lastly, the trend thread has the road side up by nearly 40 games on the season. The only time that lead has lurched past 40 games, the home side showed up significantly to peg it back (which is in keeping with extensive leads in any chart over every season I've been recording those stats). Leading into the break I think circumstances make for more home team covers, so I see this aligned to my taking home teams here.
Its this All Star break fact which ices this chase cake from my perspective. Atlanta has actually won 5 straight, and covered 6 straight, road games. I simply do not see the circumstances at this particular point in the schedule making for them extending those runs to 7 and 8 straight respectively. Looking at their recent wins, Jersey was in shitty form after overperforming for so long, Phoenix gave a much weaker peformance (seems like the Suns are in lull mode now until the break) than the one they gave Utah recently (without Boozer, with Nash) at the same venue (Utah won, as well), and Golden State - nothing worth writing home about without BD. Obviously a small bet to start with.
My chase here involves looking for Atlanta to lose ATS in one of their final 2 road games prior to the All Star break. Their opponents are Utah tonight, and the LA Clippers in 2 days time.
The specifics - Atlanta tonight
- is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, on the road, thats doubles as a B2B game. They had 6 such games previously this season, and outside of facing Boston (during that team's horrendous present run of losses), they are 1-4 SU & ATS....
- ....in all these games (BOS incl.) Joe Johnson shoots 41.8% while averaging 19.0 points. In all other games this season he's shooting 48.1% while averaging 26.3 points - Just to note, in games this season where Johnson has scored less than 20 points, Atlanta is 1-10 SU & 0-11 ATS. JJ's average here is not what any ATL backers want to see.
- since falling below .500 for the last time this season, Atlanta has ended their rare multiple game winning streaks with losses by 21, 12 & 15 points (naturally 0-3 ATS) The only instance this season they've played a game on a 3rd in 4/B2B during any multi-game winning streak, was in recording that 15 point loss (a home game).
- Atlanta has lost their last 8 games SU & ATS to Utah, as the Dog.
Wider facts - Atlanta's remaining 2 games
- In games where Atlanta is the Dog this season, the team who has won SU is 35-4-1 ATS - the winner covers 90.0% of the time. Further, when Atlanta is off a SU win then plays as the Dog (as is the case tonight), the SU winner of their games is 15-1 ATS - the winner covers 93.7% of the time.
- The Dog is 15-3 ATS in Atlanta's last 18 games. This has been a stat correction for what preceded this period of Dog domination, which was a run by the Favourites to the tune of 14-5-1 ATS. As I pointed out in a chase from earlier this season (DET Fav result off a run of Dog results), stat correction runs usually end when they're pretty much in balance to the runs that preceded them....
.... adding together the present Dog run to the preceding Fav run, supplies the number 20-17-1 to the Dog: my expectation now, based on my experience of how these things *work*, is to start to expect another slide towards the Fav, sooner rather than later.
- Also in keeping with this, is the Home team vs Road team ATS situation for Atlanta's games. The road team started their season 11-6, adjustments were made so the pendulum then lurched to the home team 10-6-1. In their latest 16 games, the pendulum has swung back to the road team to the strong tune of 13-3. These runs total in length 17, 17 & the present 16 games - doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out the nature of this rhythm - in keeping with an expectation for Favs showing up for ATL's games (to whatever extent) is the matching expectation of a more balanced showing from the home team. I can only think of 1 team currently bucking these basic patterns I see for most teams, and thats the Celtics (with their games having a massive bias towards the road team covering at present).
Next, its been my pattern for a number of seasons now to look for specific match-ups when it comes to team's final games before the All Star break. The qualifying cirteria has been
(1) Look to play a home team (venue energy),
(2) That is the favourite (slash, the better team),
(3) That is in with a chance to make the post season (motivation),
(4) That is playing an opponent on a road trip (hence will be their final game of that trip before the break)
(5) And that that opponent has no realistic chance of making the post season (ultimately, a meaningless contest).
Unfortunately I lost the thread where I gathered the specific stats for games that applied to the above over recent seasons (posted at another site), but I do recall the ATS numbers being very very strong. Teams playing for nothing with a long awaited break before them at a venue where they get no energy, vs a team with everything to play for, is naturally a situation thats amenable to that home team coming out on top more often than not comfortably.
The criteria above will of course apply for Atlanta's visit to the Staples Center. Add in the Clips poor (road) form (in keeping with this, I'd love to see them murdered by 30, lol, tonight) to an Atlanta cover tonight, & I can see people falling over themselves to claim the points the Hawks will receive.
Lastly, the trend thread has the road side up by nearly 40 games on the season. The only time that lead has lurched past 40 games, the home side showed up significantly to peg it back (which is in keeping with extensive leads in any chart over every season I've been recording those stats). Leading into the break I think circumstances make for more home team covers, so I see this aligned to my taking home teams here.
Its this All Star break fact which ices this chase cake from my perspective. Atlanta has actually won 5 straight, and covered 6 straight, road games. I simply do not see the circumstances at this particular point in the schedule making for them extending those runs to 7 and 8 straight respectively. Looking at their recent wins, Jersey was in shitty form after overperforming for so long, Phoenix gave a much weaker peformance (seems like the Suns are in lull mode now until the break) than the one they gave Utah recently (without Boozer, with Nash) at the same venue (Utah won, as well), and Golden State - nothing worth writing home about without BD. Obviously a small bet to start with.
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