***18***

Thanks guys!

I got burned with the hook on Cincy... was sooo close to playing-139 but I just couldn't. Ah well Chase got me out unscathed.


This is such a wild week, everyone in the free world is wagering on player incentives & props. Inflated lines for"must win" spots/ seeding etc. I won't be going crazy but I may be going against a couple inflated lines.
 
Saints+14.5

Panthers/Falcons o48

Broncos-10.5

3 units each


Nico Collins 1st td +750

Brian Robinson jr. 1st td +600

Reggie Gilliam TD+370

Josh Jacobs 1st td +430

1 unit each


+6777
Ray Davis TD
Gilliam TD
Nico TD
Bijan TD
Broncos ML

.25 units
 
Bills thoughts- I was prob one game early on the Ray Davis props but they will likely be inflated. Starters will be resting but I could see this still being relatively close. Does NE REALLY want to give up the #1 for a last week win?

The Bills have tied the record for most TDs scored by different players- There are 2 players lined with ATT odds to break it... Gilliam & Trubisky. I would think the Bills give Gilliam plenty of run as I'm sure they want Ty & Ray nice & healthy for the playoffs. Maybe Ray gets 14+ carries but can't see him getting a ton. So I'm playing Gilliam +370 over Mitch +750- I think it's worth a shot.

Saints just a straight up fade of the whole world betting TB every which way. Evans probably gets his yards but the # and action are way too high for my liking. Rattler to CEH for the cover!

Panthers/Falcons tell me where the D will be. Leaned towards the points but no Horn in the secondary I think ATL lets Penix sling it & Car has no answer for Bijan. Over it is!

Broncos- I see a ton of KC love with weird reasoning but they will likely play so vanilla and Wentz will turn it over. I could see this being a 20+ win for Denver.

Nico 1st td +750- may be flushing 1 unit down the drain but two straight losses to playoff teams I think Houston will actually play to win here, at the very least come out strong just for a little positivity before getting the playoff beatdown. Who better than Nico on a quick one vs a terrible pass D.

Later I'm thinking of holding my nose and playing Davante TD as Rodgers HAS to get to 500? Lean over in this one once again Poyer still in the secondary for Miami, IDC if the D has looked better as of late they stink
 
I like Clyde TD prop too Lex, I don’t have the stones to take the 14.5 which I agree is the play. I’m on Evans at good numbers I feel and some Bucky shit


Great stuff and see you for playoffs!!!
 
Wow Gilliam ATT dropped to +205!

Cook 1st td +750 was close to playing just because it would tie an OJ record- he needs 19 yds to get to 1,000 but no Dawkins and likely they'll get him out real quick.

Here's the thing Buffalo lost players last season in a meaningless game so I don't think McDermott will have anyone in by the third drive offensively. Allen will be out after one or two handoffs. Mitch will be handing off maybe a couple little short misdirection passes but don't expect much.

Whole defensive line is out and secondary as well so really I think the Pats will have to run the wrong way or fumble on purpose to lose this one.

I would think you could play all 3 ne starting wrs to score Douglas+350, Boutte +410, Bourne+430 and one hits for profit. I would if I was hot but again this is a crazy week so I'll just watch & root on Gilliam to score.
 
FWIW if the Bengals somehow get in I will be playing Bills ML as my only 1st round wager (provided it's under -220 or so)
 
GL Lexi! Last week of choices are Atlanta, Jets, Colts, Tennessee, Dallas, NYG, Rams, Vegas.
Gotta take my chances with Atlanta and Bijon going off. Just can’t trust the other situations. You?
 
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