Long fun day yesterday but had a hard time sleeping in---in anticipation of today.
As with all aspects of gaming, this is just my opinion. I happen to think I am right but could be wrong.
QB's making their first NFL start are 23-51 SU over past 7 years (2-3 TY) but the midget has a lot going in his favor today IMO.
First, Browns are at home and it will be like a rock concert today in clev. Not a bad way to start your career. Two, the midget is a tricky guy to gameplan especially when you only have about 12 snaps of tape on him. He is the crafty pitcher that just got called up from triple A in August. No one knows what to expect and until those tendencies are revealed you get a lot of swing and misses. He wont last in this league and will very likely get hurt, but until he does he is going to give a lot of good defenses trouble.. Note- the defense he is playing today is not good.
I think he will be dynamic in the running game today, and with the Bengals trying to predictably set the edge, the Browns could run for 200+.
I made the line around the HFA number, and I don't get how the bengals , who gave up 42 last week and have the 29th ranked defense, and a QB with iffy ribs are getting any love here. After today I believe the lines will adjust and eventually the defenses will adjust to Football but for me, this is the best betting position of the day and I am jumping the number now..