GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
The excitement of the Triple Crown will always bring me back to what I consider possibly the most amazing sporting event I ever had the pleasure to watch; the 1973 Belmont Stakes with Secretariat going for the Triple Crown. At 2:28 of the video is my favorite line in sports’ history, “HE IS MOVING LIKE A TREMENDOUS MACHINE!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM
KENTUCKY DERBY:
Here’s a look at the field in the 142nd Run for the Roses.
#1 TROJAN NATION - No maiden has won the Derby since 1933 and the streak won’t be broken. Came up rail in the Wood Memorial at 81-1 to finish 2nd missing only a head in by far his best lifetime race. Saved a ton of ground in the Wood and may have been aided by the mud. Tough post to navigate in 20 horse field. Simply not fast enough and recent works have been mediocre at best. TOSS WITH CONFIDENT
#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS - Tremendous improvement in his three races as a three year old. Amazing stretch run in the Southwest Stakes coming from dead last (14th) to win going away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZEHfU0wR4. Finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby closing into fractions that did not favor closers. One of many strong closers in race that has a puncher’s chance. Had the best figure in the Arkansas Derby considering weights and trips. Only three week break since his lifetime best figure, which could be tough to duplicate here but has some solid sheet numbers, which on his best could win this. Horse has gotten some wide trips and much shorter fields. Has a chance with a clear, ground saving trip. USING IN THE MIX. LIVE LONGSHOT IF HE SAVES GROUND AND AVOIDS TROUBLE.
#3 CREATOR - Won the Arkansas Derby three weeks back from far back and dead last in race that set up nicely for him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIsx2lGYs_c. Ended up with a much better trip than Suddenbreakingnews (“SBN”). Has shown nice progression through his career but like SBN, a recent lifetime best on just three weeks rest is a tough recipe for a peak performance in the Derby. Said to be working well. Not out of the question. COULD HIT THE BOARD BUT I WON'T BE USING HIM MUCH.
#4 MO TOM - Funniest thing I read this week is that Mo Tom finds more trouble than an underage sorority girl hanging on Bourbon Street at Mardi Gras. Horse just seems to find trouble constantly. Got up for 3rd in the Risen Star https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpqEFM2HSpc. Probably would have won had he not been forced to check. Was completely compromised in the Louisiana Derby (See video attached to Gun Runner). Won the LeComte from far back avoiding major road trouble out kicking stablemate, Tom’s Ready. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYDIAi7frB8. If he avoids trouble, he will be passing a lot of horses late. Lanerie, the leading rider at Churchill stays aboard despite skepticism of his last two rides on Mo. While I want to like him if he gets a decent trip, the races he was compromised in were somewhat slow, so even a winning trip in those wouldn’t be close to fast enough here. His figures would have to improve dramatically here to contend. Just don’t think he is fast enough. WANTED TO CONSIDER HIM, JUST CAN'T DO IT.
#5 GUN RUNNER - Got a cushy trip to win the Louisiana Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRFbsiFD9W4 but hard to knock 4 wins in 5 career races with a win here at Churchill as a two year old. Has good tactical early speed to find a good spot early. Shows gradual improvement in all five career races but when you break him down, his figures aren’t that great and he has been aided by somewhat easy trips. Nice horse who could improve but his best figures are somewhat similar to #4 Mo Tom and as said there, those figures probably just aren’t fast enough. SHOULD BE PROMINENTLY PLACED EARLY ON. I CAN'T COMPLETELY TOSS. MAY CONSIDER FOR BOTTOM POSITIONS EARLY.
#6 MY MAN SAM - Closed from far back going 8-wide to grab 2nd in the Bluegrass behind #19 Brody’s Cause. Shows steady improvement in all three races this year and his figures are a few points faster than #4 and #5 here. A paycheck is definitely within reach. COULD SPRINKLE IN FOR BOTTOM OF TICKETS.
#7 OSCAR NOMINATED - As his name suggests, just being mentioned in the same category as top piers is an honor but other than that, this one has no chance. Has never raced on dirt and his turf and poly figures are way too slow. Toss! LEICESTER HAD A BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING ENGLAND'S PREMIERE LEAGUE THAN THIS HORSE DOES OF BEING ANYWHERE CLOSE. TOSS
#8 LANI - Kentucky bred horse, who had been racing in Japan and won the $1.2 million UAE Derby overseas after stumbling at the start. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYdg7m3kT8Q. Horse has a major tendency of acting up before race time and particularly in the gate, which is not going to make the horses on either side of him very happy. True wild card but I lean towards thinking the UAE race field wasn’t all that special and that this horse just isn’t fast enough. Has had a strange workout pattern the last two weeks and word is his workouts have been less than stellar. NOT FOR ME. SOME PEOPLE THINK HE HAS A SHOT. WON'T BE ON MY TICKETS.
#9 DESTIN - Horse absolutely ran a freak race winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th with a figure that was off the charts compared to his previous efforts and the best figure any horse in this field has ever run. Having said that, he now comes in off almost a two month layoff and Pletcher is 1 for 43 in the Derby and his Florida horses coming into the Derby have never fared well. His previous 4 efforts do not even make him a consideration here and its tough to see him not taking a major step backwards off the last effort and layoff. Not completely out of the question but tough for me to include. FASTEST SINGLE RACE FIGURE OF ANY HORSE IN FIELD. TOUGH TO TOTALLY DISMISS BUT LAYOFF IS A BIG CONCERN. I CAN ONLY CONSDER FOR MINOR SHARES.
#10 WHITMORE - Solid figures and efforts in both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby’s. Another one that likes to close from far back. Unproven at two turn races but a paycheck is definitely a possibility. NOT A BAD LONGSHOT TO CONSIDER FOR BOTTOM PARTS OF PARI-MUTUEL TICKETS.
#11 EXAGGERATOR - “Absolutely brilliant” winner of the Santa Anita Derby in the slop coming from about 18 lengths behind to win with authority. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24LOuy5OVVo. However, one could argue that the leaders absolutely hit a brick wall in that race turning for home and his finishing speed of 34 mph wasn’t all that brilliant. Desormeaux really eased him out of the gate in the SA Derby and the race set up perfectly for him. Solid horse and has an interesting developing pattern of speed figures that make him a contender. Another that likes to close from far back that also does have some previous races where he can be a bit closer to the pace, which would improve his chances. A definite contender but in three starts against Nyquist, he has lost by a combined 15 lengths. POPULAR HORSE AT WINDOWS WHO WILL BE CLEAR 2ND BETTING CHOICE. HAVE TO SPRINKLE HIM IN.
#12 TOM’S READY - A Surprising 2nd to Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby. Only 1 win in 9 races and his best efforts aren’t even close to being fast enough. Toss. NOT FOR ME.
#13 NYQUIST - 7 for 7 and looked impressive disposing of Mohaymen easily in the Florida Derby. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSYfTy243-E. Nyquist was an early bloomer as a two year old and has obviously been solid as a three year old with an unblemished record but his sheet numbers aren’t necessarily better than some of the other top contenders in here. No doubt he will be the favorite and you have to throw him in the mix but others offer better value and he is a vulnerable favorite. Questions about whether he will excel at this distance and has a history of bearing out in many races, which is not a good sign. Has the tactical speed to find solid early position and has to be included in the mix but when the favorite doesn’t have the fasted sheet numbers, there is value in looking elsewhere. In fact, eight other runners here today show single race sheet numbers in route races faster than Nyquist’s best race. Vulnerable to say the least! HAVE TO USE HIM IN THE MIX BUT WILL BE FAR FROM MY KEY!
#14 MOHAYMEN - Won the Holy Bull (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzdsNY5aL0g) and the Fountain of Youth both 6 horse races at Gulfstream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln65GwxbFrU. If you throw out his last, his figures are right there with the best in the race. Has won 5 of 6 career races and at one time was seen as the potential favorite in this race last year. Mixed signals and tough to know to expect. REAL "X" FACTOR. SHOULD BE FORWARDED PLACED EARLY AND IF YOU CAN IGNORE THE FLORIDA DERBY, HE IS VERY LIVE. WILL BE IN MIX.
#15 OUTWORK - Another son of Uncle Mo, this lightly-raced colt has three wins from four starts while having banked over $700,000. Outwork owns the second-fastest 4f figure last race and lifetime, which is likely to put him on or close to the lead. This stalking style has proved itself well as both American Pharoah and California Chrome both sat third for a good part of the race. The major knock on Outwork, which can also be said about Nyquist, is their potential distance limitations. Their grand sire (Uncle Mo’s sire), Indian Charlie has never had a progeny win at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs. Solid figures his last two make him a contender and he has good early tactical speed to find good position. Said to be working extremely well the last two weeks. Must be considered. LIGHTLY RACED HORSE WITH A SHOT. HAVE TO CONSIDER IN MIX.
#16 SHAGAF - Suffered his first loss last out in he Wood Memorial as the favorite. Hasn’t run a race as a 3 year old as good as his lone two year old race, which is not a good sign. Probably not fast enough. WON'T BE USING.
#17 - MOR SPIRIT - Bob Baffert’s ridgling has been no worse than 2nd in 7 career races. Ridgling you ask? No, it’s not the equine version of Bruce Jenner. A ridgling is a male horse with one or both testicles undescended. Don’t say you didn’t learn anything today. LOL. Won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROtX-UtVhyY. Had the fastest race as a two year old of any horse in this field and threw in another strong figure two back at Santa Anita. His weaker efforts have all been on sloppy tracks. Drew poorly but is one of the fastest horses in the races and does have some tactical speed to find decent early position. Intriguing. STILL INTRIGUING.
#18 MAJESTO - Took him 5 races to break his maiden and he hasn’t shown improvement off his one two-year old race. Too slow! TOSS
#19 BRODY’S CAUSE - Grinded from far back to win the Toyota Bluegreass at Keeneland. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB-jJfHo0fQ. Another deep closer who get the worst of draws. Had he drawn better, I would have considered but his sheet numbers are slightly off the top contenders and the draw really works agains thin. Could hit bottom of ticket. IF HE DREW BETTER, I'D USE MORE HEAVILY. POST #19 HAS ME CONSIDERING ONLY FOR MINOR SHARE.
#20 DANZING CANDY - Absolute speedball won the San Felipe on the front end, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z5OPMxQa6A, beating Exaggerator and Mor Spirit with somewhat of an uncontested lead but was completely overused early in the Santa Anita Derby at a speed as high as 43 mph in the mud and “spit the bit” in the stretch. See video attached to Exaggerator. Tough to rate on the lead and if he gets pressure, he will fold but if he is left on an easy lead, one never knows. Should be able to clear the early lead even from Post #20. Two back, he shows one of the top figures of any horse in here and with a ground saving trip on the lead, the potential is there to lay down the gauntlet and make the rest catch him. As people learned on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks when ignoring Cathryn Sophia, don’t ignore a fast horse because of one recent bad race. All or nothing proposition. Could win this wire to wire if he can get a moderate pace early or he could pack his tent and fold at top of stretch if he is unable to rate. I will be using. ALL OR NOTHING PROPOSITION. SEE SOME SCENARIOS WHERE HE IS RIGHT THERE AT THE WIRE AND OTHERS WHERE THEY PUT OUT AN AMBER ALERT FOR HIM. USING IN SOME SCENARIOS.
Will be add thoughts and plays Saturday.
KENTUCKY DERBY:
Here’s a look at the field in the 142nd Run for the Roses.
#1 TROJAN NATION - No maiden has won the Derby since 1933 and the streak won’t be broken. Came up rail in the Wood Memorial at 81-1 to finish 2nd missing only a head in by far his best lifetime race. Saved a ton of ground in the Wood and may have been aided by the mud. Tough post to navigate in 20 horse field. Simply not fast enough and recent works have been mediocre at best. TOSS WITH CONFIDENT
#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS - Tremendous improvement in his three races as a three year old. Amazing stretch run in the Southwest Stakes coming from dead last (14th) to win going away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZEHfU0wR4. Finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby closing into fractions that did not favor closers. One of many strong closers in race that has a puncher’s chance. Had the best figure in the Arkansas Derby considering weights and trips. Only three week break since his lifetime best figure, which could be tough to duplicate here but has some solid sheet numbers, which on his best could win this. Horse has gotten some wide trips and much shorter fields. Has a chance with a clear, ground saving trip. USING IN THE MIX. LIVE LONGSHOT IF HE SAVES GROUND AND AVOIDS TROUBLE.
#3 CREATOR - Won the Arkansas Derby three weeks back from far back and dead last in race that set up nicely for him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIsx2lGYs_c. Ended up with a much better trip than Suddenbreakingnews (“SBN”). Has shown nice progression through his career but like SBN, a recent lifetime best on just three weeks rest is a tough recipe for a peak performance in the Derby. Said to be working well. Not out of the question. COULD HIT THE BOARD BUT I WON'T BE USING HIM MUCH.
#4 MO TOM - Funniest thing I read this week is that Mo Tom finds more trouble than an underage sorority girl hanging on Bourbon Street at Mardi Gras. Horse just seems to find trouble constantly. Got up for 3rd in the Risen Star https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpqEFM2HSpc. Probably would have won had he not been forced to check. Was completely compromised in the Louisiana Derby (See video attached to Gun Runner). Won the LeComte from far back avoiding major road trouble out kicking stablemate, Tom’s Ready. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYDIAi7frB8. If he avoids trouble, he will be passing a lot of horses late. Lanerie, the leading rider at Churchill stays aboard despite skepticism of his last two rides on Mo. While I want to like him if he gets a decent trip, the races he was compromised in were somewhat slow, so even a winning trip in those wouldn’t be close to fast enough here. His figures would have to improve dramatically here to contend. Just don’t think he is fast enough. WANTED TO CONSIDER HIM, JUST CAN'T DO IT.
#5 GUN RUNNER - Got a cushy trip to win the Louisiana Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRFbsiFD9W4 but hard to knock 4 wins in 5 career races with a win here at Churchill as a two year old. Has good tactical early speed to find a good spot early. Shows gradual improvement in all five career races but when you break him down, his figures aren’t that great and he has been aided by somewhat easy trips. Nice horse who could improve but his best figures are somewhat similar to #4 Mo Tom and as said there, those figures probably just aren’t fast enough. SHOULD BE PROMINENTLY PLACED EARLY ON. I CAN'T COMPLETELY TOSS. MAY CONSIDER FOR BOTTOM POSITIONS EARLY.
#6 MY MAN SAM - Closed from far back going 8-wide to grab 2nd in the Bluegrass behind #19 Brody’s Cause. Shows steady improvement in all three races this year and his figures are a few points faster than #4 and #5 here. A paycheck is definitely within reach. COULD SPRINKLE IN FOR BOTTOM OF TICKETS.
#7 OSCAR NOMINATED - As his name suggests, just being mentioned in the same category as top piers is an honor but other than that, this one has no chance. Has never raced on dirt and his turf and poly figures are way too slow. Toss! LEICESTER HAD A BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING ENGLAND'S PREMIERE LEAGUE THAN THIS HORSE DOES OF BEING ANYWHERE CLOSE. TOSS
#8 LANI - Kentucky bred horse, who had been racing in Japan and won the $1.2 million UAE Derby overseas after stumbling at the start. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYdg7m3kT8Q. Horse has a major tendency of acting up before race time and particularly in the gate, which is not going to make the horses on either side of him very happy. True wild card but I lean towards thinking the UAE race field wasn’t all that special and that this horse just isn’t fast enough. Has had a strange workout pattern the last two weeks and word is his workouts have been less than stellar. NOT FOR ME. SOME PEOPLE THINK HE HAS A SHOT. WON'T BE ON MY TICKETS.
#9 DESTIN - Horse absolutely ran a freak race winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th with a figure that was off the charts compared to his previous efforts and the best figure any horse in this field has ever run. Having said that, he now comes in off almost a two month layoff and Pletcher is 1 for 43 in the Derby and his Florida horses coming into the Derby have never fared well. His previous 4 efforts do not even make him a consideration here and its tough to see him not taking a major step backwards off the last effort and layoff. Not completely out of the question but tough for me to include. FASTEST SINGLE RACE FIGURE OF ANY HORSE IN FIELD. TOUGH TO TOTALLY DISMISS BUT LAYOFF IS A BIG CONCERN. I CAN ONLY CONSDER FOR MINOR SHARES.
#10 WHITMORE - Solid figures and efforts in both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby’s. Another one that likes to close from far back. Unproven at two turn races but a paycheck is definitely a possibility. NOT A BAD LONGSHOT TO CONSIDER FOR BOTTOM PARTS OF PARI-MUTUEL TICKETS.
#11 EXAGGERATOR - “Absolutely brilliant” winner of the Santa Anita Derby in the slop coming from about 18 lengths behind to win with authority. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24LOuy5OVVo. However, one could argue that the leaders absolutely hit a brick wall in that race turning for home and his finishing speed of 34 mph wasn’t all that brilliant. Desormeaux really eased him out of the gate in the SA Derby and the race set up perfectly for him. Solid horse and has an interesting developing pattern of speed figures that make him a contender. Another that likes to close from far back that also does have some previous races where he can be a bit closer to the pace, which would improve his chances. A definite contender but in three starts against Nyquist, he has lost by a combined 15 lengths. POPULAR HORSE AT WINDOWS WHO WILL BE CLEAR 2ND BETTING CHOICE. HAVE TO SPRINKLE HIM IN.
#12 TOM’S READY - A Surprising 2nd to Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby. Only 1 win in 9 races and his best efforts aren’t even close to being fast enough. Toss. NOT FOR ME.
#13 NYQUIST - 7 for 7 and looked impressive disposing of Mohaymen easily in the Florida Derby. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSYfTy243-E. Nyquist was an early bloomer as a two year old and has obviously been solid as a three year old with an unblemished record but his sheet numbers aren’t necessarily better than some of the other top contenders in here. No doubt he will be the favorite and you have to throw him in the mix but others offer better value and he is a vulnerable favorite. Questions about whether he will excel at this distance and has a history of bearing out in many races, which is not a good sign. Has the tactical speed to find solid early position and has to be included in the mix but when the favorite doesn’t have the fasted sheet numbers, there is value in looking elsewhere. In fact, eight other runners here today show single race sheet numbers in route races faster than Nyquist’s best race. Vulnerable to say the least! HAVE TO USE HIM IN THE MIX BUT WILL BE FAR FROM MY KEY!
#14 MOHAYMEN - Won the Holy Bull (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzdsNY5aL0g) and the Fountain of Youth both 6 horse races at Gulfstream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln65GwxbFrU. If you throw out his last, his figures are right there with the best in the race. Has won 5 of 6 career races and at one time was seen as the potential favorite in this race last year. Mixed signals and tough to know to expect. REAL "X" FACTOR. SHOULD BE FORWARDED PLACED EARLY AND IF YOU CAN IGNORE THE FLORIDA DERBY, HE IS VERY LIVE. WILL BE IN MIX.
#15 OUTWORK - Another son of Uncle Mo, this lightly-raced colt has three wins from four starts while having banked over $700,000. Outwork owns the second-fastest 4f figure last race and lifetime, which is likely to put him on or close to the lead. This stalking style has proved itself well as both American Pharoah and California Chrome both sat third for a good part of the race. The major knock on Outwork, which can also be said about Nyquist, is their potential distance limitations. Their grand sire (Uncle Mo’s sire), Indian Charlie has never had a progeny win at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs. Solid figures his last two make him a contender and he has good early tactical speed to find good position. Said to be working extremely well the last two weeks. Must be considered. LIGHTLY RACED HORSE WITH A SHOT. HAVE TO CONSIDER IN MIX.
#16 SHAGAF - Suffered his first loss last out in he Wood Memorial as the favorite. Hasn’t run a race as a 3 year old as good as his lone two year old race, which is not a good sign. Probably not fast enough. WON'T BE USING.
#17 - MOR SPIRIT - Bob Baffert’s ridgling has been no worse than 2nd in 7 career races. Ridgling you ask? No, it’s not the equine version of Bruce Jenner. A ridgling is a male horse with one or both testicles undescended. Don’t say you didn’t learn anything today. LOL. Won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROtX-UtVhyY. Had the fastest race as a two year old of any horse in this field and threw in another strong figure two back at Santa Anita. His weaker efforts have all been on sloppy tracks. Drew poorly but is one of the fastest horses in the races and does have some tactical speed to find decent early position. Intriguing. STILL INTRIGUING.
#18 MAJESTO - Took him 5 races to break his maiden and he hasn’t shown improvement off his one two-year old race. Too slow! TOSS
#19 BRODY’S CAUSE - Grinded from far back to win the Toyota Bluegreass at Keeneland. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB-jJfHo0fQ. Another deep closer who get the worst of draws. Had he drawn better, I would have considered but his sheet numbers are slightly off the top contenders and the draw really works agains thin. Could hit bottom of ticket. IF HE DREW BETTER, I'D USE MORE HEAVILY. POST #19 HAS ME CONSIDERING ONLY FOR MINOR SHARE.
#20 DANZING CANDY - Absolute speedball won the San Felipe on the front end, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z5OPMxQa6A, beating Exaggerator and Mor Spirit with somewhat of an uncontested lead but was completely overused early in the Santa Anita Derby at a speed as high as 43 mph in the mud and “spit the bit” in the stretch. See video attached to Exaggerator. Tough to rate on the lead and if he gets pressure, he will fold but if he is left on an easy lead, one never knows. Should be able to clear the early lead even from Post #20. Two back, he shows one of the top figures of any horse in here and with a ground saving trip on the lead, the potential is there to lay down the gauntlet and make the rest catch him. As people learned on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks when ignoring Cathryn Sophia, don’t ignore a fast horse because of one recent bad race. All or nothing proposition. Could win this wire to wire if he can get a moderate pace early or he could pack his tent and fold at top of stretch if he is unable to rate. I will be using. ALL OR NOTHING PROPOSITION. SEE SOME SCENARIOS WHERE HE IS RIGHT THERE AT THE WIRE AND OTHERS WHERE THEY PUT OUT AN AMBER ALERT FOR HIM. USING IN SOME SCENARIOS.
Will be add thoughts and plays Saturday.
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