140th Kentucky Oaks/Derby Plays
- Thread starter Gandolf
- Start date
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Hope you get the 3 home here in the 9th
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
How about the bookend nightcap win though? Pretty good day for Al Jr, opening and closing Oaks day in the winners circle. Give Rosie a kiss for me!
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
OK, I've got 3 scenarios for the big race that I'm building superfecta tickets around. Gotta go for the big enchilada! As I've posted before, there's four horses that I think rate the best chance to win, so based on the different pace scenarios I'll roll this way:
1) Slow pace - counterintuitive to the large number of early horses in the race, but with most of them on the inside and a fast track in the forecast we may find the pace a little slower than expected and the speed being able to carry a little longer. This sets things up for stalkers to finish 1-2 and there's no better stalker in this race than California Chrome. Closers arrive but too late to reach the wire first.
Win - #5
Place - #1, #4, #6, #13
Show - #16, #17, #20
Fourth - 1/4/6/13/16/17/20
Cost = 1x4x3x5 = $60
2) Honest pace - an honest pace will generally benefit the best horses in the field. In my opinion the two best horses are Danza and California Chrome, with Danza grinding down Chrome in the stretch, so we'll use Danza and top and CC in 2nd with other good finishers underneath, and then flip CC into 3rd and put good stretch runners 2nd and 4th.
Win - #4
Place - #5
Show - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Fourth - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Win - #4
Place - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Show - #5
Fourth - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Cost = 1x1x6x5(x2) = $60
3) Fast Pace - Generally considered the most likely scenario. In past years with pace meltdowns, like last year, most of the positions get filled by horses running near the back half of the pack, with only the very best horses running near the lead having a shot to finish in the money. Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong have proven themselves as the best closers in the field, so we'll use them on top and also keyed in 2nd and 3rd around some other late runners along with CC and Danza.
Win - #16, #20
Place - #16, #20
Show - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Fourth - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Win - #16, #20
Place - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Show - #16, #20
Fourth - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Cost = 2x1x5x4(x2) = $80
Will also be playing tri's using similar scenarios, with a little more coverage thanks to the 50 cent minimum available. Good luck everyone!
1) Slow pace - counterintuitive to the large number of early horses in the race, but with most of them on the inside and a fast track in the forecast we may find the pace a little slower than expected and the speed being able to carry a little longer. This sets things up for stalkers to finish 1-2 and there's no better stalker in this race than California Chrome. Closers arrive but too late to reach the wire first.
Win - #5
Place - #1, #4, #6, #13
Show - #16, #17, #20
Fourth - 1/4/6/13/16/17/20
Cost = 1x4x3x5 = $60
2) Honest pace - an honest pace will generally benefit the best horses in the field. In my opinion the two best horses are Danza and California Chrome, with Danza grinding down Chrome in the stretch, so we'll use Danza and top and CC in 2nd with other good finishers underneath, and then flip CC into 3rd and put good stretch runners 2nd and 4th.
Win - #4
Place - #5
Show - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Fourth - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Win - #4
Place - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Show - #5
Fourth - #1, #6, #13, #16, #17, #20
Cost = 1x1x6x5(x2) = $60
3) Fast Pace - Generally considered the most likely scenario. In past years with pace meltdowns, like last year, most of the positions get filled by horses running near the back half of the pack, with only the very best horses running near the lead having a shot to finish in the money. Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong have proven themselves as the best closers in the field, so we'll use them on top and also keyed in 2nd and 3rd around some other late runners along with CC and Danza.
Win - #16, #20
Place - #16, #20
Show - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Fourth - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Win - #16, #20
Place - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Show - #16, #20
Fourth - #4, #5, #12, #17, #18
Cost = 2x1x5x4(x2) = $80
Will also be playing tri's using similar scenarios, with a little more coverage thanks to the 50 cent minimum available. Good luck everyone!
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
GL Gandolf, I like the way you shaped those super tickets
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
I've been staring at scenario 1 in your supers and shaking my head. That's tough, I hope you hit on the tri.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Don't like to redboard but yes, I used all 7 underneath in Place and Show for a 50 cent tri. It saved the day. I've not done that before and gotten burned, like in 2012. :cheers:
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
:cheers: We'll deserved hit on the tri, you had the race read right.
