***14***

Bills thoughts-

Game 3 of new OC calling game & he gets back another offensive asset (hopefully) in Knox. While underwhelming to start the year it's important to note Allen likes to go to him. Knox had a td in the last 4 games down the stretch last season, also had one vs KC. Even while injured this year had 6 targets both games previous to Patriots & going out.

Knox gives them the option of running 12 & at the very least gives KC more to prep for. New OC & no tape of him running 12 personnel yet could give Allen & the offense a little more of an edge. FWIW i don't think many targets will be taken away from Kincaid. I still expect 7-9 targets as he's carved out a spot in this offense. Could also boost the rushing attack & Cook. I thought this was the game they would bring up Fournette for blocking help but I guess they feel confident enough with Cook/Murray/TY.

Defensively they are what they are. Good defensive front that should be able to get pressure- mid LBS that could easily get exploited in the short passing game. I would think they match Rapp on Kelce but who knows. What I do know is CEH is a HUGE dropoff at rb. Not to say he isn't capable of moving chains but I'd expect Pat to rely much more on the short dump offs & quick passes to offset the rush. Hopefully Oliver/rousseau can disrupt plays early and wreak havoc. Biggest concern for me is Pat getting free & running. I think his rushing yds o29.5 prob hit. Allen is sitting at 34.5- don't like it.

Allen & the offense come in hot, but they are definitely facing a step up in talent vs the last couple defenses. That being said I think they know it'll likely take 27+ to win.

I originally thought the tt over would be a huge wager but I made a regular play. Reason is the KC d is as advertised & KC will try their best to keep Allen on the sidelines. Still think they get to 24 win or lose, but not quite the banger it was last week if you ask me. Allen will have to run some long drives to keep that defense fresh as well....

I think the Bills+3 was value & they win, but my mind is clouded by my fandom. This is it for Buffalo no way they have a shot without a W here. Allen is gonna go get it!

Props I can get behind

Allen td passes o1.5-143 Juicy but it's gonna hit.

Kincaid catches o4.5-103/ o5.5+195 & yards o39.5 -as I said he's carved out a role.

Knox TD+400 weird feeling Allen goes back to what's comfy in the RZ. Maybe 1st td at +2200

Cook rushing o48.5-117 & TD+133


On the KC side which i won't bet

Mahomes rushing yds over 29.5
Kelce td-143
Kelce o6.5 catches
Mckinnon rec yds o20.5
 
Vikings-3

Bills+1.5

Bills 1sth tt o10.5

Kincaid rec o4.5-103

Allen o1.5 td passes-139

Cook anytime td+130

3 units each
 
Boys-2.5 1sth

Eagles/boys o52

2 units each


Lamb td
Pollard td
Hurts td
Cooks rec yds o46.5
Cowboys ml

+1700

Half unit
 
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