a couple opposing thoughts on this game... looking at the season as a whole the Colts have only gone over 43 total points in a home game once, and it was the 30-27 win vs GB. Luck is off a poor performance, but in all fairness it was pretty tough spot for him to perform in, and he did throw 2 tds. The Bills dline finally played a game that I thought they would be capable of all season. That was at home vs the Fins though, big difference going on the road and performing well defensively if you are the Bills. Those would be the arguments I have against playing the over, but there are plenty of reasons why this could sail. With the Colts off a easy over otr I wonder how the defense responds, but I do think there will be offensive output from the Bills side. Fred back gives the offense balance, Spiller is the home run threat but Fred finds the chains like a vet. Bills offense works best when they are both playing. Vontae Davis likely out for the Colts and a run game that should be able to move the ball should provide Stevie J with a chance at a breakout game. Fitz 0-4 in the redzone last game with no attempts over 15 yards but i think today is a different day with a much different gameplan offensively. I think the bills get in the 24-30 range.
defensively the Bills played a solid game last week, all stemming from the Dline getting pressure. Buffalo was able to generate pressure sending 4 or less on 29 of 31 dropbacks. This helps the weak pass coverage immensely, and also allows Byrd to roam and make plays. This guy is a beast and could very well take one back if Luck gets sloppy. However, the fact remains that Buffalo is not a good coverage team, and Wayne & co are more than capable of exposing that weakness, even if the Bills are getting pressure. I have a hard time seeing the Bills defense replicating what was done at home vs a bad Fins offense in this situation today. My heart wants the Bills to go in there & blow the Colts out, but my brain says this will be a closely fought high scoring game, and the team with the least turnovers wins. Was flirting with the idea of a Bills ML wager, but Over is the best option here IMO
